Anan suka sake komawa, suna zargin bala'in gobarar daji a Los Angeles akan sauyin yanayi lokacin da ainihin masu laifi su ne 'yan siyasa da ba su daina kururuwa game da abin da ke da ban mamaki.
Da farko dai, ba shakka, gobarar da ta tashi a California a halin yanzu, kamar waɗanda suka shuɗe lokaci-lokaci, galibi aiki ne na manufofin gwamnati na bata. Da gaske dai jami’ai sun dakile samar da ruwan da ‘yan kwana-kwana na LA, duk da cewa sun kara kaimi wajen samar da wuta mai konewa da ciyayi da ke ciyar da wadannan gobarar daji. Ƙarshen, bi da bi, ana ƙara haɓaka da iskar Santa Ana na yanayi, waɗanda suka ziyarci gabar tekun California tun da dadewa.
Harin da ke faruwa ya samo asali ne daga manufofin kula da gandun daji da ke hana kawar da wuce gona da iri ta hanyar ƙonawa, wanda masu kula da gandun dajin suka shirya da gangan don rage yawan haƙar mai. Yayin da muke ƙarawa a ƙasa, jajayen bishiyu da cikas na tsarin mulki sun yi ta jinkirta ko hana waɗannan ƙonawa da aka sarrafa, barin goga, matattun bishiyoyi, da sauran kayan wuta su taru sosai.
A wannan yanayin, 'yan siyasar jihohi da na Tarayya sun yi lokaci guda katse shi samar da ruwa da ake samu ga ma'aikatan kashe gobara na Los Angeles don kare abin da ake kira nau'in da ke cikin hadari. Musamman, Kudancin California ana yin garkuwa da su ta hanyar rage yawan farashin ruwa daga Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta don kare Delta Smelt da Chinook Salmon.
Waɗannan na farko suna da haske amma ƙananan ƙananan buggers, kamar yadda ɗimbin Smelt ya ba da shawara a hoton farko da ke ƙasa. Amma a fili, idan an kare su, an kifaye su, sa'an nan kuma sun soyu, suna yin wani nau'i mai dadi.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, California tana da haƙƙin stew a cikin wauta na manufofinta-idan abin da masu jefa ƙuri'anta ke so da gaske. Amma bacin rai na son kai bai kamata ya zama wani lokaci na ƙarin kuka don goyon bayan manufofin Washington don yaƙar sauyin yanayi ba.
Aƙalla game da na ƙarshe, Donald yana da kansa a kan dama. Kuma ba ya jinkirin yin ra'ayi game da lamarin, wanda ke da kyau ga daidaita abin da ya kasance gaba ɗaya mai ban sha'awa mai ban sha'awa mai ban sha'awa mai ban sha'awa da kuma ɓarna na Rikicin Yanayi. A zahiri, masana kididdiga sun fitar da na karshen saboda yana ba da ƙarin ƙarin girma, ban tsoro, kuma dalili na gaggawa don yaƙin neman zaɓe na "dukkanin gwamnati" na ƙarin kashe kuɗi, rance, daidaitawa, da kuma tauye kasuwancin kasuwa kyauta da 'yancin kai.
Don haka bari mu sake yin bitar shari'ar bogi na AGW ko abin da aka sani da Warming Global Anthropogenic. Kuma tabbatar da cewa dole ne a fara da hujjojin ilimin ƙasa da burbushin halittu, wanda ke faɗin cewa matsakaicin yanayin zafin duniya a yau kusan 15 digiri C da CO2 na 420 ppm ba wani abu bane mai takaici. Kuma ko da sun tashi zuwa kusan 17-18 digiri C da 500-600 ppm, bi da bi, a ƙarshen karni, galibi saboda yanayin yanayin ɗumamar yanayi wanda ke gudana tun ƙarshen ƙaramin Ice Age (LIA) a cikin 1850, yana iya yin kyau a daidaita daidaiton ɗan adam.
Bayan haka, fashewar wayewa a cikin shekaru 10,000 na ƙarshe sun faru daidai gwargwado a lokacin jajayen juzu'i na jadawali da ke ƙasa. Babban wayewar kogin Yellow, Indus, Nile, da Tigris/Euphrates, zamanin Minoan, wayewar Greco-Roman, furanni na Medieval, da juyin juya halin masana'antu da fasaha na zamanin yanzu duk an sami damar yin amfani da lokacin yanayin zafi mai tsayi. A lokaci guda, da yawa lapses a cikin "duhu zamanai" ya faru a lokacin da yanayi ya juya sanyi (blue).
Kuma wannan yana da ma'ana kawai. Lokacin da ya fi zafi kuma ya yi zafi, lokacin girma yana da tsawo kuma amfanin amfanin gona ya fi kyau - ba tare da la'akari da fasahar noma da ayyukan da ake yi ba. Kuma yana da kyau ga lafiyar ɗan adam da na al'umma, ma-mafi yawan mugayen annoba na tarihi sun faru a ƙarƙashin yanayi mai sanyi, kamar Mutuwar Baƙar fata na 1344-1350.
Amma duk da haka labarin Crisis Crisis ya zurfafa-shida wannan ɗimbin ɗimbin “kimiyya” ta na’urori biyu na yaudara. Ba tare da su ba, duk labarin AGW ba shi da wata kafa da za ta tsaya a kai.
Na farko, ya yi watsi da dukkanin tarihin duniya kafin Holocene (shekaru 10,000 na ƙarshe), kodayake kimiyya ta nuna cewa fiye da 90% na lokaci a cikin shekaru miliyan 600 da suka wuce yanayin yanayin duniya (layin blue) da matakan CO2 (layin baki) sun kasance mafi girma fiye da halin yanzu; kuma 50% na lokacin sun kasance mafi girma - tare da yanayin zafi a cikin kewayon 22 ° C ko 50% sama da matakan yanzu.
Wannan ya wuce duk wani abin da mafi ƙarancin yanayin yanayi ke hasashe a yau. Amma, mahimmin mahimmanci, tsarin yanayin duniyar duniyar ba su shiga cikin madauki na ranar kiyama ba na ƙara yawan yanayin zafi da ke ƙarewa a cikin zafi mai zafi. Akasin haka, a ko da yaushe ana duba lokutan ɗumamawa da jujjuya su da ƙarfi da ƙarfi.
Hatta tarihin da masu faɗakarwa suka yarda an ruguza su sosai. Kamar yadda muka nuna a wani wuri, abin da ake kira "sandunan hockey" na shekaru 1,000 na baya-bayan nan wanda ake zargin yanayin zafi har zuwa 1850 kuma yanzu yana tasowa zuwa matakan da ake zaton masu haɗari shine cikakken crock. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ce ta ƙera ta da ɓarna don " soke" gaskiyar cewa yanayin zafi a duniyar masana'antu kafin masana'antu na Zamanin Dumi na Medieval (1000-1200 AD) a zahiri ya fi na yanzu girma.
Abu na biyu, ana yin ƙaryar cewa ɗumamar yanayi hanya ce ta hanya ɗaya wacce yawan hauhawar iskar gas (GHGs) musamman CO2 ke haifar da ma'aunin zafi a duniya yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Gaskiyar ita ce, mafi girma CO2 maida hankali ne a sakamakon da sakamakon, ba direba da kuma sanadin, na halin yanzu ta halitta tashin (da faduwa) yanayin zafi hawan keke na duniya.
Bugu da ƙari, tarihin "an soke" yanzu na Planet Earth ya ƙwanƙwasa shawarar CO2-tilasta a cikin hular da aka zana. A lokacin Cretaceous tsakanin shekaru miliyan 145 zuwa 66 (familar lemu ta uku) da suka gabata gwajin halitta ya ba da cikakkiyar karewa ga kwayoyin CO2 da aka lalatar. A cikin wannan lokacin, yanayin zafi na duniya ya tashi sosai daga digiri 17 C zuwa digiri 25 na C—matakin da ya yi nisa sama da duk wani abu da Hasashen Yanayi na yau suka yi hasashe.
Alas, CO2 ba shine mai laifi ba. Dangane da ilimin kimiyya, abubuwan da ke cikin yanayi na CO2 a zahiri sun faɗi a cikin tsawon shekaru miliyan 80 na Cretaceous, suna faɗuwa daga 2,000 ppm zuwa 900 ppm a jajibirin Ƙarfafawa shekaru miliyan 66 da suka gabata. Don haka yawan zafin jiki da CO2 a zahiri sun motsa a cikin akasin kwatance. Babban lokaci.
Za ku yi tunanin cewa wannan hujja mai ƙarfi mai ƙarfi za ta ba mayukan CO2 dakata, amma hakan zai zama watsi da abin da ainihin canjin yanayi ke tattare da brouhaha. Wato, ba batun kimiyya ba, lafiyar ɗan adam, da jin daɗin rayuwa, ko rayuwar Duniyar Duniya; ya shafi siyasa ne da kuma binciken ’yan siyasa da kididdiga ba tare da katsewa ba don tabbatar da harkokin tattalin arziki da zamantakewar zamani. Sakamakon kara girman ikon jihar, bi da bi, yana samun babban taimako daga ajin siyasa na Beltway da masu amfani da kayan aiki da 'yan ta'adda wadanda suka sami iko da kishin kasa daga yakin neman zabe.
Lallai, labarin Crisis Crisis shine nau'in mantra na siyasa na al'ada wanda ajin siyasa da kuma na dindindin nomenklatura na jihar zamani-farafesa, masu tunani, masu fafutuka, apparatchiks, aikin hukuma - don tattarawa da yin amfani da ikon jihar.
Don fassara babban Randolph Bourne, ƙirƙira zargin gazawar jari-hujja-kamar haɓakar ƙonewa mai yawa hydrocarbon- shine lafiyar jihar. Hakika, ƙirƙira matsalolin ƙarya da barazanar da ake zargin ba za a iya magance su ta hanyar shiga tsakani na gwamnati ba, ya zama salon tafiyar da ƴan siyasa da suka yi wa mulkin demokraɗiyya na zamani gabaɗaya.
Yin haka, duk da haka, ’yan siyasa da masu mulki da ke da alaƙa sun saba da samun nasarar da ba za ta hana su shiga ba, har suka zama marasa hankali, rashin kulawa, da rashin gaskiya. Misali, a lokacin da muka sami zafi na lokacin rani ko wani lamari kamar na LA na yanzu waɗannan abubuwan da suka faru na yanayi sun cukuɗe cikin labarin ɗumamar yanayi tare da naryar tunani na biyu na 'yan jarida masu daidaita lebe na MSM.
Amma duk da haka babu cikakkiyar tushen kimiyya don duk wannan bugun tom-tom. Misali, akan batun da ya shafi raƙuman zafin rana da busasshiyar gobarar daji, NOAA tana buga fihirisar zafin zafi. Ƙarshen ya dogara ne akan tsawaita yanayin zafi wanda ya wuce kwanaki 4 kuma ana sa ran zai faru sau ɗaya kawai a cikin shekaru goma bisa bayanan tarihi.
Kamar yadda ya bayyana daga ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, ƙaƙƙarfan zafin zafin gaske da muka samu a cikin shekaru 125 na ƙarshe shine lokacin raƙuman Dust Bowl na 1930s. Mitar ƙaramar zafi mai zafi tun daga 1960 a zahiri bai fi yadda yake a lokacin 1895-1935 ba.
Hakanan, duk abin da ake ɗauka shine guguwa mai kyau na Cat 3 kuma sun tashi zuwa tseren, suna ƙara da ƙarfi game da AGW. Tabbas, wannan yana watsi da bayanan kansa na NOAA gabaɗaya kamar yadda aka taƙaita a cikin abin da aka sani da ma'anar ACE (ƙaramar cyclone energy).
Shahararren masanin guguwa kuma farfesa na Jami'ar Jihar Colorado, William Gray ne ya fara samar da wannan fihirisa. Yana amfani da lissafin matsakaicin iskar cyclone na wurare masu zafi kowane sa'o'i shida. Ƙarshen yana ƙaruwa da kanta don samun ƙimar ƙima kuma ana tarawa ga duk guguwa don duk yankuna don samun ƙimar ƙima na tsawon shekara. An nuna wannan a ƙasa don shekaru 170 da suka gabata (layin shuɗi shine matsakaicin mirgina shekaru bakwai).
Editan ku yana da matuƙar girmamawa musamman ga Farfesa Gray—ba kaɗan ba saboda ƙwararrun ƙwararru, Al Gore ya zage shi. Amma a baya a cikin kwanakin mu na masu zaman kansu, mun saka hannun jari a cikin wani kamfani na Property-Cat, wanda ke cikin babban kasuwanci mai haɗari na inshora ga matsanancin lalacewar da guguwa da girgizar ƙasa suka haifar. Don haka saita ƙimar daidai ba kasuwanci ba ce mai sauƙi kuma ita ce nazari, bayanan dogon lokaci, da hasashen shekara na Farfesa Gray wanda marubutanmu suka dogara sosai.
Wato, ɗaruruwan biliyoyin murfin inshora ya kasance a lokacin kuma har yanzu ana rubuta su tare da fihirisar ACE a matsayin mahimmancin shigarwa. Amma duk da haka idan ka bincika matsakaicin mirgina na shekaru 7 (layin shuɗi) a cikin ginshiƙi, ya tabbata cewa ACE yana da girma (ko mafi girma) a cikin 1950s da 1960 kamar yadda yake a yau, kuma hakan ya kasance gaskiya ga ƙarshen 1930s da lokutan 1880-1900.
Tabbatacce, layin shuɗi ba shi da lebur a matsayin allo saboda akwai zagayawa na ɗan gajeren lokaci na halitta, kamar yadda aka faɗa a ƙasa, wanda ke haifar da jujjuyawar da aka nuna a cikin ginshiƙi. Amma babu wani "kimiyya" da za'a iya cirewa daga ginshiƙi wanda ke goyan bayan alaƙar da ake zargi tsakanin yanayin ɗumamar yanayi na yanzu da kuma guguwa mai ta'azzara.
Abin da ke sama jimillar jimillar duk guguwa ce don haka yana da cikakken ma'auni kamar yadda yake. Amma don son shakku, bangarori uku na gaba suna duba bayanan guguwa a matakin ƙidaya guguwa. Yankin ruwan hoda na sanduna yana wakiltar adadin babban, hadari Cat 3-5 mai haɗari, yayin da ɓangaren ja yana nuna adadin ƙananan guguwar Cat 1-2 da kuma yankin shuɗi na yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi waɗanda ba su kai girman Cat 1 ba.
The sanduna tara yawan hadari a cikin 5-shekara tazara da kuma nuna rubuce rubuce ayyuka a baya zuwa 1851. Dalilin da muka gabatar uku bangarori-ga Eastern Caribbean, Western Caribbean, da Bahamas / Turkawa da Caicos, bi da bi, shi ne cewa trends a cikin wadannan uku sub-yanki a fili diverge. Kuma wannan shine ainihin bindigar shan taba.
Idan dumamar yanayi ke haifar da ƙarin guguwa kamar yadda MSM ke ci gaba da kiyayewa, haɓakar zai zama iri ɗaya a duk waɗannan yankuna, amma ba haka ba ne. Tun daga shekara ta 2000, alal misali,
- Gabashin Caribbean ya sami karuwa mai sauƙi a cikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi da kuma Cats mafi girma dangane da mafi yawan shekaru 170 da suka gabata;
- Yammacin Caribbean ba sabon abu ba ne kwata-kwata, kuma, a zahiri, ya kasance ƙasa da ƙididdiga mafi girma a lokacin 1880-1920;
- Yankin Bahamas/Turkawa da Caicos tun daga 2000 a zahiri sun yi rauni sosai fiye da lokacin 1930-1960 da 1880-1900.
Ainihin gaskiyar lamarin ita ce guguwar Atlantika tana haifar da yanayin yanayi da yanayin zafin teku a gabashin Atlantic da Arewacin Afirka. Waɗannan dakarun, su kuma, suna da tasiri sosai ta kasancewar El Nino ko La Nina a cikin Tekun Pacific. Abubuwan da suka faru na El Niño suna ƙara girgizar iska a kan Tekun Atlantika, suna samar da yanayi mara kyau don samuwar guguwa da rage ayyukan guguwa na wurare masu zafi a cikin Tekun Atlantika. Sabanin haka, La Niña yana haifar da karuwar ayyukan guguwa saboda raguwar iska.
Waɗannan abubuwan da suka faru a Tekun Fasifik, ba shakka, ba su taɓa samun alaƙa da ƙarancin yanayin ɗumamar yanayi da ake yi yanzu ba.
Lamba da ƙarfin guguwa na Atlantika kuma na iya yin zagayowar shekaru 50-70 da aka sani da Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan zagayowar ba su da alaƙa da yanayin ɗumamar yanayi tun 1850.
Duk da haka, masana kimiyya sun sake gina manyan guguwa na Atlantic a farkon karni na 18 (@1700) kuma sun gano lokuta biyar tare da haɓakar guguwa mai girma na 3-5 manyan guguwa a kowace shekara da kuma tsawon shekaru 40-60 kowace; da wasu karin lokuta shida masu matsakaicin matsananciyar guguwa 1.5-2.5 a kowace shekara kuma tana dawwama shekaru 10-20 kowace. Waɗannan lokutan suna da alaƙa da oscillation decadal mai alaƙa da rashin hasken rana, wanda ke da alhakin haɓaka/dampening yawan manyan guguwa da 1-2 a kowace shekara, kuma a fili ba samfurin AGW ba ne.
Bugu da ƙari, kamar a cikin wasu lokuta da yawa, bayanan ayyukan guguwa na dogon lokaci kuma sun kawar da AGW saboda babu wani lokaci mafi yawan lokuta a cikin shekaru 3,000 da suka gabata, alal misali. Duk da haka bisa ga rikodin wakilci na wannan lokacin daga ruwan tekun bakin teku a kan Cape Cod, ayyukan guguwa ya karu sosai a cikin shekaru 500-1,000 da suka gabata tare da lokutan da suka gabata - amma ko da karuwar ta faru tun kafin yanayin zafi da yawan carbon ya kai matakan karni na 20.
A takaice, babu wani dalili da za a yi imani da cewa waɗannan yanayi na farko da aka fahimta da kuma yanayin guguwa na dogon lokaci sun sami tasiri ta wurin ƙaramin matsakaicin yanayin zafi na duniya tun lokacin da LIA ta ƙare a 1850.
Kamar yadda ya faru, labarin iri ɗaya gaskiya ne game da gobarar daji kamar zafin LA na yanzu. Wannan shi ne nau'i na uku na bala'o'in yanayi da masu fama da yanayi suka mamaye. Amma a wannan yanayin, munanan tsarin kula da gandun daji ne da aka ambata, ba dumamar yanayi da ɗan adam ya yi ba, wanda ya mayar da yawancin California zuwa busasshiyar man itace.
Kuma kada ku dauki maganarmu. Wannan magana da ke ƙasa ta fito ne daga tallafin George Soros Pro Publica, wanda ba ainihin kayan kwalliyar kwalliyar kwalliyar dama ba. Ya yi nuni da cewa masana muhalli sun daure hukumomin kula da gandun daji na tarayya da na jihohi ta yadda ‘yan kankanin ‘yan kone-kone na yau sun kasance kadan ne daga cikin abin da Uwar dabi’ar da kanta ta cimma kafin taimakon hannun hukumomin siyasa na yau da ake zargin wayewar kai ya isa wurin:
Masana kimiyya sun yi imanin cewa tsakanin kadada miliyan 4.4 da miliyan 11.8 sun kone kowace shekara a California prehistoric. Tsakanin 1982 zuwa 1998, manajojin filaye na hukumar California sun ƙone, a matsakaici, kimanin eka 30,000 a shekara. Tsakanin 1999 da 2017, adadin ya ragu zuwa kadada 13,000 na shekara. Jihar ta zartar da wasu sabbin dokoki a cikin 2018 da aka tsara don sauƙaƙe ƙarin ƙonawa da gangan. Amma 'yan kaɗan suna da kyakkyawan fata wannan, shi kaɗai, zai haifar da gagarumin canji.
Muna rayuwa tare da mutuwa. A cikin Fabrairu 2020, Dorewa Nature ya buga wannan ƙarshe mai ban tsoro: California na buƙatar ƙone kadada miliyan 20 - yanki mai girman Maine - don sake daidaitawa dangane da wuta.
A takaice dai, idan ba ku share ba kuma ku kona itacen da aka kashe, kun gina akwatunan da ke kare dabi'a waɗanda ke buƙatar yajin walƙiya kawai, walƙiya daga layin wutar da ba a gyara ba, ko kuma rashin kulawar ɗan adam don kunna wuta mai zafi. Kamar yadda kwararre mai shekaru 40 da haihuwa ya taƙaita,
Akwai mafita ɗaya kawai, wadda muka sani har yanzu muna guje wa. "Muna buƙatar samun wuta mai kyau a ƙasa kuma mu rage wasu nauyin man fetur."
Rashin yin irin wannan ƙonawa mai sarrafawa shine ainihin abin da ke bayan gobarar daji ta LA a yau. Wato, babban sawun ɗan adam da ya fi girma a cikin ciyayi masu saurin gobara da ciyayi (dwarf bishiyoyi) yankunan da ke bakin tekun ya ƙara haɗarin mazauna za su iya kunna wuta, bazata ko akasin haka. Yawan jama'ar California ya ninka daga 1970 zuwa 2020, daga kimanin mutane miliyan 20 zuwa kusan mutane miliyan 40, kuma kusan dukkanin ribar ta kasance a yankunan bakin teku.
A karkashin wadannan yanayi, iska mai karfi da ke faruwa a California, wadanda ke taruwa lokaci-lokaci, kamar yadda suke faruwa a halin yanzu, su ne babban laifin da ke kara ruruta wutar da mutane suka yi a cikin ciyayi. Iskar Diablo da ke arewacin jihar da iskar Santa Ana a kudancin kasar na iya kaiwa ga guguwa, kamar yadda aka yi a makon nan. Yayin da iskoki ke matsawa Yamma a kan tsaunukan California da ƙasa zuwa gaɓar teku, suna damfara, dumi, kuma suna ƙaruwa.
Su kuma wadannan iskoki suna hura wuta da kuma dauke da hayaniya, suna yada wutar da sauri kafin a shawo kan su. Kuma a saman wannan, iskar Santa Ana kuma tana aiki azaman na'urar busar da iska ta Mother Nature. Sa’ad da suke gangarowa daga duwatsu zuwa teku, iska mai zafi tana busar da ciyayi da itacen da aka mutu da sauri da ƙarfi, wanda hakan ya ba da hanya don hura wutar dajin da ke gangarowa a kan gangaren.
Daga cikin wasu shaidun da ke nuna cewa haɓaka masana'antu da haɓakar burbushin halittu ba su ne masu laifi ba shine gaskiyar cewa masu bincike sun nuna cewa lokacin da al'ummomin 'yan asalin California suka mamaye, gobarar daji za ta ƙone wasu. Eka miliyan 4.5 shekara guda. Wannan ya kusa 6X matakin da aka samu a lokacin 2010-2019, lokacin da gobarar daji ta kone matsakaicin adalci 775,000 acres kowace shekara a California.
Bayan rikicin da bai dace ba na duk waɗannan rundunonin yanayi na yanayi da muhalli tare da ɓarnawar gandun daji na gwamnati da manufofin kiwo na shrubland, akwai ainihin bindigar shan taba, kamar dai.
Don wit, yanayin yanayi ne sukan rungumi lamban patent da yawa waɗanda ba su taɓa haifar da yanayin zafi na California na musamman ba. Amma duk da haka idan muka kalli bayanan gobarar dajin za mu samu, kash, wanda ba kamar California da Oregon ba, Amurka gaba daya ta fuskanci mafi raunin shekaru a cikin 2020 tun daga 2010.
Haka ne. Tun daga ranar 24 ga Agusta kowace shekara, matsakaicin konewar shekaru 10 ya kasance 5.114 miliyan kadada a fadin Amurka, amma a cikin 2020 ya ragu da kashi 28%. 3.714 miliyan kadada
Bayanan gobara na kasa zuwa yau:
Tabbas, abin da wannan ginshiƙi na sama ya nuna shi ne, bisa ga ƙasa, ba a sami wani yanayi mai muni ba kwata-kwata a cikin shekaru goma da ke ƙarewa a 2020, kawai manyan juzu'i daga shekara zuwa shekara ba wasu manyan yanayin zafi na duniya ke motsawa ba amma ta canza yanayin gida da yanayin muhalli.
Ba za ku iya tafiya daga kadada miliyan 2.7 da aka kona a cikin 2010 zuwa kadada miliyan 7.2 a 2012, komawa zuwa kadada miliyan 2.7 a 2014, sannan zuwa kadada miliyan 6.7 a 2017, sannan kawai kadada miliyan 3.7 a cikin 2020 - kuma har yanzu yana jayayya tare da C.
Akasin haka, ainihin abin da ke faruwa a zahiri shine cewa a cikin shekaru goma a cikin 'yan lokutan nan akwai wuri ɗaya kawai da matsakaicin gobarar daji ke faruwa. kadada sannu a hankali yana tashi-California!
Amma hakan ya faru ne saboda mummunan gazawar manufofin kula da gandun daji na gwamnati. Ko da a lokacin, California ta ɗan ƙaramin tashin matsakaicin matsakaicin wutar lantarki tun daga 1950 kuskure ne mai zagaye idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin shekara-shekara daga zamanin prehistoric, wanda ya kusan kusan. 6x fiye fiye da a cikin shekaru goma na baya-bayan nan.
Bugu da ƙari kuma, yanayin haɓaka a hankali tun 1950, kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa, bai kamata a ruɗe da iƙirarin ɓarna na Climate Howlers ba cewa gobarar California ta “ƙaru sosai a kowace shekara,” kamar yadda New York Times ya ruwaito.
A gaskiya, da NYT yana kwatanta matsakaicin ƙonawa na sama yayin 2020 da na 2019, wanda ya ga ƙaramin adadin da ba a saba gani ba ya kone. Wato, kadada 280,000 kawai a cikin 2019 idan aka kwatanta da miliyan 1.3 da miliyan 1.6 a cikin 2017 da 2018, bi da bi, da 775,000 a matsakaici a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata.
Haka kuma wannan rashin alaƙa da dumamar yanayi ba al'amuran California da Amurka ba ne kawai. Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, ƙimar fari da ke haifar da wuta a duniya, wanda aka auna ta da matakan tsanani biyar tare da launin ruwan kasa mafi girma, bai nuna wani yanayi mai muni ba kwata-kwata a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata.
Girman Duniya na Matakai Biyar na Fari, 1982-2012
Wannan ya kawo mu ga ƙwararrun shari'ar. Don sanin, babu alamun yanayi na fushi na rikicin yanayi ko kaɗan. Amma AGW hoax ya gurɓata babban labarin da tsarin manufofin a Washington da manyan biranen duniya waɗanda al'ummar wannan zamani ke shirin aiwatar da tattalin arziƙin Hara Kari - da kyau, har sai Donald Trump ya zo tare da yin alƙawarin cire dukkan ƙungiyar Amurkawa daga fagen wasan banza na duniya.
Kuma ga tsine mai kyau dalili. Sabanin lamarin da ke nuna cewa karuwar amfani da man fetur bayan shekara ta 1850 ya sa tsarin yanayin duniya ya zama mara dadi, an samu ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya da jin dadin bil'adama sosai. Kuma wani muhimmin abu da ke bayan wannan ci gaban salati shi ne babban haɓakar amfani da albarkatun mai mai arha don ƙarfafa rayuwar tattalin arziki.
Jadawalin da ke ƙasa ba zai iya zama mai ma'ana ba. A zamanin kafin masana'antu tsakanin 1500 zuwa 1870, ainihin GDP na duniya ya yi tafiya a daidai lokacin. 0.41% kowace shekara. Akasin haka, a cikin shekaru 150 da suka gabata na shekarun man fetur na duniya ya haɓaka zuwa 2.82% kowace shekara-ko kusan sau 7 cikin sauri.
Wannan babban ci gaban, ba shakka, a wani ɓangare ya samo asali ne daga yawan al'ummar duniya mafi girma kuma mafi koshin lafiya wanda aka samu ta hanyar haɓaka matsayin rayuwa. Amma duk da haka ba tsokar ɗan adam kaɗai ta sa matakin GDP ya tafi daidai da ginshiƙi na ƙasa ba.
Hakanan ya faru ne saboda kyakkyawar haɗakar jari-hujja da fasaha. Kuma daya daga cikin muhimman abubuwan da suka faru na karshen shi ne hazakar masana'antar mai ta hanyar buda wani katafaren rumbun adana kayan aikin da Uwar dabi'a ta hako, ta tattara, da kuma nisantar da makamashin hasken rana a tsawon tsawon shekaru miliyan 600 da suka gabata.
Ba sai an fa]a ba, lalurar amfani da makamashin duniya ya yi daidai da hauhawar GDPn duniya da aka nuna a sama. Don haka, a cikin 1860 yawan amfani da makamashi na duniya ya kai 30 exajoules a kowace shekara kuma kusan 100% na abin da aka wakilta shi da shudin Layer mai lakabin "bio-fuels," wanda shine kawai ladabi ga itacen wuta da raguwar dazuzzuka da ya ƙunshi.
Tun daga wannan lokacin, yawan makamashin da ake amfani da shi na shekara-shekara ya karu da ninki 18 zuwa 550 exajoules (@ ganga biliyan 100 na mai kwatankwacin), amma kashi 90% na wannan ribar ya kasance saboda iskar gas, kwal, da man fetur. Duniyar zamani da tattalin arzikin duniya mai wadata a yau ba za su wanzu ba idan ba a sami babban haɓakar amfani da waɗannan ingantattun man fetur ba, ma'ana cewa kuɗin shiga na kowane mutum da matsayin rayuwa in ba haka ba zai kasance kaɗan ne kawai na matakan yanzu.
Ee, wannan ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaruwa na wadatar da ke haifar da amfani da man burbushin ya haifar da haɓaka daidai gwargwado a cikin iskar CO2. Amma kamar yadda muka nuna, kuma akasin labarin Rikicin Yanayi, CO2 ba gurɓataccen abu bane!
Kamar yadda muka gani, haɓakar haɓakar haɗin gwiwar CO2-daga kusan 290 ppm zuwa 415 ppm tun daga 1850-ya kai ga kuskuren zagaye-zagaye a cikin dogon yanayin tarihi da kuma dangane da lodin yanayi daga tushen halitta.
Dangane da na farko, adadin CO2 na kasa da 1000 ppm shine kawai ci gaba na baya-bayan nan na shekarun ƙanƙara na ƙarshe, yayin da lokacin shekarun ilimin geologic ya kai sama da 2400 ppm.
Hakazalika, tekuna sun ƙunshi kimanin tan biliyan 37,400 na carbon da aka dakatar, biomass na ƙasa yana da tan biliyan 2,000-3,000, kuma yanayin ya ƙunshi ton biliyan 720 na CO2 ko 20X fiye da hayaƙin burbushin da aka nuna a ƙasa. Tabbas, gefen kishiyar ma'auni shine tekuna, ƙasa, da yanayi suna musayar CO2 ci gaba da yin lodi don haka ƙarin lodi daga tushen ɗan adam kaɗan ne.
Mafi mahimmanci, ko da ƙaramin motsi a cikin ma'auni tsakanin tekuna da yanayi zai haifar da tashin hankali / faɗuwa a cikin abubuwan CO2 fiye da duk wani abu da aka danganta ga ayyukan ɗan adam. Amma tun da Climate Howlers sun yi ƙarya cewa matakin masana'antu na kashi 290 a kowace miliyan ya kasance tun lokacin Babban Bang kuma cewa mafi girman haɓaka tun 1850 shine tikitin hanya ɗaya don tafasa duniyar da rai, suna damuwa da ma'auni na "sabuwar da nutsewa" a cikin zagayowar carbon ba tare da wani dalili mai inganci ba.
A zahiri, ci gaba da jujjuya ma'aunin carbon na duniya akan kowane lokaci mai ma'ana babba ne, don haka menene!
An sake bugawa daga Stockman's sabis na sirri
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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