Yanzu babu ƙarancin shaidar da ke nuna cewa coronavirus yana da fara yada ba a gano ba a duk faɗin duniya zuwa kaka 2019 a karshe. Koyaya, lokacin mura na 2019-20 ya kasance mai laushi a yawancin wurare. Misali, a nan Mutuwar Amurka, tare da zagayawa lokacin mura na 2019-20.
Kuma a nan ne Ingila da Wales, tare da ƙarshen hunturu na 2019-20 a gefen hagu (kafin mako 10). Bambanci tare da hawan bazara (da raƙuman ruwa na gaba) a bayyane yake.
Wannan yana haifar da wani sirri: me yasa COVID-19 kawai ya fara kashe mutane da yawa ya zo bazara 2020 idan ya kasance yana rataye a hankali duk lokacin hunturu?
wasu masu shakka jayayya cewa saboda Covid ba ainihin kwayar cuta ce ta fi mura ba, amma yawan mace-mace duk ya faru ne sakamakon yadda muka fara amsa ta a watan Fabrairu da Maris 2020. Misali, yawan amfani da na'urorin hura iska musamman a cikin birnin New York da jihohin da ke kewaye a tashin farko ya kasance. shawara da wasu ke yin dubun dubatar ƙarin mutuwar. Koyaya, yayin da mai ba da iska a cikin da kewayen NYC zai yi bayanin wasu ƙarin mutuwar a lokacin bazara, ba zai yi bayanin barkewar cutar a wani wuri ba, ko kuma barkewar cutar da ta ci gaba da tahowa a cikin raƙuman ruwa na gaba kamar yadda ake amfani da injin. karaya.
Gaskiyar cewa annobar cutar ta Covid ta ci gaba da zuwa a cikin watanni da shekaru masu zuwa (duba ginshiƙi na Amurka a sama) babban ƙin yarda ne ga ra'ayin cewa abin da ke haifar da yawancin mace-mace wani abu ne na musamman game da jiyya da aka yi amfani da su, in ji, New York a cikin Maris 2020. Bayan haka, jihohi da yawa ciki har da Florida suna da raƙuman ruwa a lokacin bazara 2021 kamar yadda bambance-bambancen Delta ya hauhawa.
Amma Florida ba ta da babban igiyar ruwa a lokacin hunturu da ta gabata (duk da sanannen kawo karshen hane-hane a fadin jihar a cikin kaka 2020). A bayyane yake ba haka lamarin yake ba cewa likitocin a Florida sun sake yin girma a kan na'urorin hura iska kamar yadda Delta ta bayyana, sannan kuma suka daina amfani da su daga baya.
Wannan ba cikakken bayani bane game da yanayin mace-mace da muke gani. Tun da farko an sami babban bambanci a yawan mace-macen da aka samu a jihohin Amurka daban-daban, kamar yadda aka yi a kasashe daban-daban, alal misali, tsakanin Gabas da Yammacin Turai. Koyaya, a cikin lokaci adadin yawan mace-mace ya kasance yana haɗuwa, yana sanya iyaka kan adadin bambancin da za a iya danganta shi akan abubuwan da suka keɓance ga yankuna ko lokutan lokaci, kamar ƙa'idodin kulawa mara kyau da wuri a arewa maso gabashin Amurka.
A ƙasa akwai hoto a Amurka a ƙarshen Mayu 2020 - ainihin faci, kodayake tare da bayyanannun adadin mace-mace a kusa da New York da kewayen Michigan, Illinois da Indiana, da Louisiana da ɗaya ko biyu wasu jihohi.
A lokacin hunturu mai zuwa, duk da haka, yawan mace-mace ya yi yawa kusan ko'ina, ma'ana ƙayyadaddun ƙa'idodin jiyya na gida ko manufofin ba za a iya zargi da kawo mutuwar ba.
Daya Shawara shine yawan mace-macen da aka yi a lokaci guda a duk sassan Ingila a cikin Maris 2020 na nuni ne da wani abin da ya haifar da banda kwayar cuta. Koyaya, bayanai daga ONS, waɗanda aka nuna a ƙasa, suna ba da shawarar cewa yawan mutuwar mura yana karuwa a duk faɗin ƙasar lokaci guda, don haka wannan ba sabon abu bane ko kuma ba zato ba tsammani. Duk da yake bayanan da ke ƙasa suna ta kwanan rajista, wanda ke haifar da daidaitawar wucin gadi (misali daga hutu na banki - dips mai kaifi), duk da haka tsarin yanki yana da matsewa ba su bar wani wuri ba don tunanin hoto ta ranar abin da ya faru zai bambanta sosai.
A takaice dai, babban direban mutuwar Covid ya bayyana, a zahiri, shine COVID-19, cutar da kwayar cuta ta haifar da Dr. John Ioannidis yana da kiyasta daga binciken antibody don samun adadin masu kamuwa da cuta (IFR) kusan 0.3-0.4% a Turai da Amurka. Wannan adadin, in ji shi, ya bambanta tsakanin da kuma tsakanin kasashe da kuma kan lokaci, kuma wasu daga cikin wannan bambance-bambancen za su kasance saboda rashin ƙa'idodin kulawa. Koyaya, daidaiton dabi'u a cikin mahallin daban-daban yana nuna wannan shine filin wasan ƙwallon ƙafa daidai, aƙalla ga waɗanda ba su da takamaiman rigakafi ga ƙwayar cuta da pre-Omicron. Dr. Ioannidis ya rubuta:
Ko da gyara abubuwan da ba su dace ba / haɗa karatu, kurakurai da ɓata lokaci, IFR har yanzu ya bambanta sosai a cikin nahiyoyi da ƙasashe. Matsakaicin matsakaicin IFR na iya zama ~ 0.3% - 0.4% a Turai da Amurka (~ 0.2% tsakanin mazaunan al'umma da ba na hukuma) da ~ 0.05% a Afirka da Asiya (ban da Wuhan). A cikin Turai, ƙididdigar IFR mai yiwuwa ta kasance mafi girma a farkon tashin hankali a cikin ƙasashe kamar Spain, UK da Belgium da ƙasa a cikin ƙasashe irin su Cyprus ko Tsibirin Faroe (~ 0.15%, ko da adadin mace-mace ya ragu sosai), Finland (~ 0.15%) da Iceland (~ 0.3%)… Hakanan akwai bambanci a cikin ƙasa; alal misali a cikin Amurka, IFR ya bambanta sosai a gundumomin New Orleans marasa galihu da yankunan Silicon Valley masu wadata. Bambance-bambancen suna haifar da tsarin shekarun yawan jama'a, yawan gidajen jinya, ingantaccen matsuguni na mutane masu rauni, kulawar likita, amfani da inganci… jiyya, kwayoyin halitta, kwayoyin halitta na hoto ko bidiyo mai zagaya yanar gizo da sauri da sauran dalilai.
Amma idan kwayar cutar da ke da IFR gabaɗaya kusan 0.3% tana yaduwa a duk lokacin hunturu, me yasa mace-mace ta yi ƙasa har zuwa Maris da Afrilu?
Na yi tunani wannan na iya kasancewa saboda bambance-bambancen da ya fi kisa ya kunno kai, a ce, Lombardy da yaduwa zuwa New York da sauran wurare. Koyaya, a yanzu ya bayyana a gare ni cewa babban dalilin rashin mace-macen shine rashin yaduwa, musamman a gidajen kulawa. Haka ne, kwayar cutar ta yadu a duniya, amma ba ta raba murar da sauran ƙwayoyin cuta ba, kuma ba ta da fashewar fashewa. Sai kawai ya zagaya a ƙaramin matakin tare da wasu ƙwayoyin cuta, yana kamuwa da wasu mutane amma ba adadi mai yawa ba. Wannan na iya zama abin ban mamaki idan aka yi la'akari da abin da ya faru tun daga bazara na 2020 da jerin manyan raƙuman ruwa tare da fashewar fashewar kuma babu mura a ko'ina da za a gani. Amma shaidun akan wannan a bayyane suke, kamar yadda aka taƙaita a ƙasa. Lokacin hunturu 2019-20 ya kasance lokacin hunturu na yau da kullun, duk da SARS-CoV-2 yana ɓoyewa da yawo cikin incognito.
Dubi waɗannan ginshiƙi daga Burtaniya rahoton kula da mura a farkon Maris 2020. Lokacin mura ya zo da wuri amma bai yi tsanani ba.
Yawan gwajin cutar mura kamar mura ya kasance al'ada, idan da wuri.
Shawarar GP don rashin lafiya kamar mura ya kasance al'ada.
Adadin shigar ICU don tabbatar da mura ya kasance al'ada.
Sauran sanannun abubuwan da ke haifar da cututtuka kamar mura sun kasance a matakan al'ada.
Duk da yake yawancin gwaje-gwajen asibiti na dalilin mura-kamar rashin lafiya sun dawo, kamar yadda aka saba, ga wani cututtukan da ba a sani ba - ɗayan wanda zai kasance SARS-CoV-2, ba shakka - adadin SARS-CoV-2 ba zai iya zama mai girma ba kamar yadda mutuwar gabaɗaya ba ta kasance ba, kamar yadda muka gani, an ɗaukaka kamar yadda za su kasance idan SARS-CoV-2, wanda ke da mafi girma IFR.
Wannan iyakancewar yaduwar SARS-CoV-2 wacce hunturu kuma ana tabbatar da ita ta farkon gwajin rigakafin cutar. Dr. Jay Bhattacharya's antibody binciken na Santa Clara County a California a ranar 4 ga Afrilu zuwa 6 ga Afrilu, 2020 ya sami kashi 2.8% na yawan jama'a tare da ƙwayoyin rigakafi. Wannan ya sanya mafi girman iyaka kan yawan yawan jama'ar Amurka da za su iya kamuwa da cutar a lokacin hunturu.
Hujjojin kariya daga Ingila kuma sun nuna ƙarancin yaduwa a duk lokacin hunturu kafin fashewar fashewar a ƙarshen Fabrairu. ginshiƙi mai zuwa ya kasance halitta ta masu binciken da suka tambayi waɗanda suka gwada ingancin kwayoyin rigakafin COVID-19 lokacin da alamun su suka fara (waɗannan gwaje-gwajen rigakafin ne, babu gwajin PCR ko LFTs da suka shiga). Tsarin cututtuka da yake bayarwa yana da ban mamaki - kuma yana goyan bayan hoton da ke sama na kwayar cutar da ke yaduwa a ƙananan matakan lokacin hunturu kafin fara girma.
Don haka shaidar duk tana nuna hoto na SARS-CoV-2 da ke yaɗuwa a cikin hunturu na 2019-20 amma ba kasancewar kwayar cutar ba ce, tana yaduwa a ƙaramin matakin, kafin fashewa cikin babban fashewa - da shiga cikin gidajen kulawa - a cikin bazara. Ta haka ne wannan fashewar da aka bazu shine ya haifar da fashewar mace-mace (ko da yake wasu sun haifar da rashin kyawun ka'idojin kulawa ba shakka, kuma adadin yawan mutuwar gida na kulawa ya kasance saboda zalunci da mazauna). Mutuwar kwayar cutar ba ta canza sosai ba; IFR bai yi tsalle ba kwatsam; sai kawai wasu mutane da yawa suka kama shi suna yada shi, kuma yana shiga cikin gidajen kulawa da yawa. (Fitar da ɗaruruwan marasa lafiya na asibiti zuwa gidajen kulawa don kwantar da gadaje ba zai taimaka da wannan ba.)
Don haka me yasa ba zato ba tsammani kwayar cutar ta fara yaduwa a cikin Fabrairu 2020; me ya sa ya tashi daga yawo a ƙananan matakai tare da mura da sauran ƙwayoyin cuta zuwa murkushe su da kuma cutar da wani adadi mai yawa na yawan jama'a a cikin sararin makonni? Menene ƙari, ya tsaya a cikin wannan yanayin mai saurin kamuwa da cuta, tare da bambance-bambancen bambance-bambancen da ke haifar da sabon tashin hankali da raƙuman ruwa. Ko da yake ba a ko'ina ba, musamman. A wasu ƙasashe, kamar Japan, Koriya ta Kudu da sauran ƙasashen Gabashin Asiya, ta kasance a cikin yanayin da ba a iya yaɗuwa kafin 2020 har sai Omicron ya zo tare (wanda ke da maye gurbi da yawa, ƙwayar cuta ce ta daban).
To me yasa? Wannan, ina tsammanin, ɗaya ne daga cikin manyan abubuwan sirrin cutar. Me yasa halayensa a lokuta da wurare daban-daban suke da sauyin yanayi, da wuya a iya hangowa? Har yanzu abin da nake ji shi ne cewa wannan yana da nasaba da kwayoyin halittar kwayar cutar da kuma yadda take mu’amala da kwayoyin halitta da sauran siffofi na al’ummar da take kamuwa da su. Bambance-bambance, a wasu kalmomi. Ba bambance-bambancen masu kisa ba dole ne (kodayake Omicron ba shi da ƙarancin mutuwa fiye da bambance-bambancen farko). Amma bambance-bambancen da suka fi saurin yaduwa a tsakanin wasu al'umma, ko wasu sassan jama'a. Bayan haka, sabbin raƙuman ruwa sau da yawa suna haifar da sabbin bambance-bambancen, waɗanda kamar za su iya kamuwa da cutar (ko sake kamuwa da cuta) rukuni na mutane daban-daban zuwa wadanda suka gabata. Don haka me yasa ba za a iya bayyana manyan raƙuman ruwa na farko da irin wannan canji na bambance-bambancen ba?
Don haka abin da wataƙila ya faru a watan Fabrairun 2020 shine sabon bambance-bambancen da aka fi sani da shi ya fito (ko aƙalla mafi watsawa tsakanin wasu rukunin mutane) wanda daga nan ya sami damar yaduwa cikin sauri. Amma saboda wasu dalilai ba ta iya zama mamaye ko'ina lokaci guda, ko shiga cikin gidajen kulawa a ko'ina, don haka farkon facin mutuwa, farawar da aka yi, da kuma haɗuwa a hankali.
Shaida mai yuwuwa da ke tabbatar da hakan ita ce ɗaya daga cikin kutsawa kawai wasu nazarin An gano don rage mace-mace a cikin tashin farko shine rufe iyakokin farko, wanda zai iya zama saboda ya kiyaye sabbin bambance-bambancen da ake iya yadawa na tsawon lokaci.
To, wannan shine mafi kyawun zato na yanzu. Kuna iya samun mafi kyau (ko da yake don Allah kar a yi ƙoƙarin saka shi duka akan ka'idojin jiyya a New York ko a ko'ina, wannan da gaske bai bayyana abin da muke gani ba). Amma ko hasashena ya yi daidai ko ba daidai ba, tambayar dalilin da ya sa kwayar cutar da ke yawo a lokacin hunturu a matakin ƙasa ba zato ba tsammani ta fara yaduwa cikin sauri da faɗi kuma ta haifar da mutuwar mutane a jere. Har yanzu kwayar cutar tana kiyaye sirrinta.
Rubuta daga Jaridar Daily Skeptic
