Lura - lambobin da aka yi amfani da su a ƙasa an tattara su don sauƙi kuma sun fito daga tushe na jiha da tarayya.
Covid-105,000 ta kashe kusan mutane 2020 a jihar tun daga shekarar XNUMX.
A cikin wannan lokacin, ƙarin Californians 82,000 sun mutu daga komai fiye da yadda aka saba.
An daidaita shi don raguwar yawan jama'a, adadin da ba na Covid "yawan mutuwa" ya zama mafi mahimmanci yayin da jihar ta ga yawan mutanenta ya ragu zuwa kusan daidai da yadda yake a cikin 2015.
A cikin 2015 - a fili babu Covid - 260,000 daga cikin mutanen California miliyan 39 da suka mutu. A cikin 2023, ban da Nuwamba da Disamba, mutane 240,000 suka mutu ba daga Covid ( ƙarin mutane 6,000 sun mutu daga Covid.).
Ƙirƙirar alkaluman shekara zuwa yau na 2023 ya haifar da adadi na ƙarshen shekara na 280,000 - 20,000 fiye da mutane fiye da waɗanda suka mutu a 2015. Wannan ba cutarwa ba ce, tsalle-tsalle na tsaka-tsakin jama'a na 8%.
A takaice dai, duk da zanga-zangar da wasu jami'ai suka yi, adadin mutuwar jihar bai dawo zuwa matakan "pre-Covid" ba - a cikin 2019 shekarar kafin barkewar cutar, mutane 270,000 sun mutu tare da adadin aƙalla 400,000 fiye da yau.
Me ya sa?
Dokta Bob Wachter, shugaban likita a UC-SF kuma mai ba da goyon baya ga tsauraran matakan hana cutar, bai amsa imel daga ofishin ba. Globe (daga aiki sai amsa ta atomatik) amma kwanan nan ya gaya wa San Jose Mercury News cewa a cikin "(T) shekaru uku da suka wuce, ba wai kawai an sami mutuwar mutane da yawa daga Covid ba, an sami ƙarin ƙarin mutuwar daga abubuwan da ba na Covid-19 ba, waɗanda wataƙila ana iya danganta su ga mutanen da ba sa samun kulawar likitancin da suka saba samu' lokacin da ERs ke cika da marasa lafiya na Covid (lura - ba a tabbatar da gaskiyar wannan ikirari ba),Wachter ya lura."
A takaice dai, mai ba da fatalwa Wachter ya yarda cewa cutar ta barke da kanta aƙalla ta ba da gudummawa ga adadi mai yawa na mace-mace, gaskiyar da aka musanta kuma - idan aka ambata - ta haifar da cece-kuce da ɓatar da jama'a (kuma a yawancin lokuta asarar aiki) ta ikon da ke yayin bala'in.
Tsohon Daraktan Lafiya na Kasa Dr. Francis Collins - maigidan Tony Fauci ya yi karo na biyu tare da waɗannan layin kwanan nan.
A cikin wannan faifan bidiyo, Collins - wanda ya taɓa yin kira ga "mummunan zazzagewa" (duba sama) na waɗanda suka yi tambaya game da mummunan martanin cutar - ya ce DC da makantar lafiyar jama'a, da kyau, sun makantar da shi ga matsalolin da cutar ta haifar kuma har yanzu tana haifar da:
Idan kai ma'aikacin lafiyar jama'a ne, kuma kana ƙoƙarin yanke shawara, kana da wannan ra'ayi mai raɗaɗi na menene shawarar da ta dace, kuma wannan shine abin da zai ceci rayuwa. Komai menene kuma zai faru, don haka kuna haɗa ƙima mara iyaka don dakatar da cutar da ceton rai. Kuna danganta darajar sifili ga ko wannan a zahiri yana rushe rayuwar mutane, yana lalata tattalin arziki, kuma yana sa yara da yawa ba su zuwa makaranta ta hanyar da ba za su taɓa murmurewa ba. Lalacewar jingina. Wannan tunanin lafiyar jama'a ne. Kuma ina tsammanin da yawa daga cikinmu sun shiga cikin ƙoƙarin bayar da waɗannan shawarwarin suna da wannan tunanin - kuma wannan abin takaici ne da gaske, wani kuskure ne da muka yi.
(Zaku iya ganin Collins da kanku anan.)
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi cewa babu ko da wani uzuri na rabin zuciya a ciki. Kuma Collins ba daidai ba ne a tsarin kula da lafiyar jama'a da a fili yake biyan kuɗi, kamar yadda a cikin tarihin zamani ya ƙunshi nazarin farashi / fa'ida da yin la'akari da tasirin al'umma.
Kiwon lafiyar jama'a, wanda aka yi aiki da shi yadda ya kamata, ba - kuma ba a taɓa taɓa yin hakan ba - ya danganta "darajar sifili ga ko wannan a zahiri yana tarwatsa rayuwar mutane, yana lalata tattalin arzikin, kuma ya sa yara da yawa ba su zuwa makaranta ta hanyar da ba za su taɓa murmurewa ba."
"Muna da ainihin mutanen da ba daidai ba ne ke jagorantar su a daidai lokacin da ba daidai ba," in ji Farfesa Stanford a fannin likitanci (kuma daya daga cikin mutanen Collins ya yi ƙoƙari ya "saukar da") Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. "Hukunce-hukuncen nasu abu ne mai matukar kisa."
Don tunatar da Collins abubuwan da ya yanke shawarar da ya wuce kisa da yawa:
Girman lalacewar tarbiyya. Barnar tattalin arziki, ta hanyar kulle-kulle da kuma yanzu ci gaba da mummunan mafarki na kasafin kudi da ke addabar al'umma sakamakon ci gaba da nuna rashin amincewa da gwamnatin tarayya. Mummunan lalacewa ga haɓaka ƙwarewar zamantakewar yara ta hanyar rufe fuska da tsoro. Rushe amanar jama'a ga cibiyoyi saboda gazawarsu da yaudara a lokacin bala'in. Babban lalacewar 'yancin walwala. Wahalhalun da suke haifarwa kai tsaye sakamakon wajabcin allurar rigakafi da sauransu a qarqashin da’awar qarya ta taimakon makwabci. Fashewar ci gaban Wall Street da aka gina akan lalata Main Street.
Bayyanar rabuwar al'umma zuwa sansanoni biyu - waɗanda za su iya samun sauƙi cikin sauƙi yayin bala'in da waɗanda rayuwarsu ta inganta gaba ɗaya. Shaidanun duk wanda ya kuskura ya yi ko da tambayoyi na asali game da ingancin martanin, walau alluran rigakafin su kansu, rufe makarantun gwamnati, asalin kwayar cutar, ko rashin amfani da gidan wasan kwaikwayo na jama'a wanda ya kunshi yawancin shirin. Rikicin da aka haifar a cikin al'umma da kuma cutar da mu'amalar da ke tsakanin dangi da abokai.
Zagi da hargitsin sana'a da fitattun masana suka jure (duba littafin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington, wanda Bhattacharya ya rubuta tare) kuma kawai mutane masu hankali kamar su Jennifer Seyi don jajircewa don bayar da hanyoyi daban-daban; Hanyoyi - kamar mayar da hankali kan mafi rauni - waɗanda aka gwada kuma aka yi nasara a baya.
Na kasa, Mutuwar “dukkan-dalilin” mutuwar ya karu, saboda dalilai na zahiri, amma sun kasance masu taurin kai fiye da na yau da kullun.
Za a iya samun abubuwan da za su rage wa lambobi na California, musamman batun wuce gona da iri. Tun daga shekara ta 2018, yawan mace-macen da aka yi amfani da shi ya ninka sau biyu. Alkalumman gabaɗaya na ƙarshe da aka samu sun fito ne daga shekarar 2021 waɗanda suka nuna mutane 10,901 suna mutuwa ta hanyar wuce gona da iri. Duk da yake ba a fayyace takamaiman waɗanne miyagun ƙwayoyi ba, mafi yawancin sun fito ne daga yawan abubuwan maye na opioid kuma yawancin waɗanda suka haɗa da fentanyl. A cikin 2022, an sami mutuwar 7,385 masu alaƙa da opioid tare da 6,473 na wadanda suka shafi fentanyl.
Amma karuwar mutuwar fiye da kima zai kai kusan kashi 25% na yawan karuwar "mutuwar mace-mace," ma'ana yana da tasiri amma ba zai iya bayyana cikakken labarin ba.
Akwai kuma batun mutuwar marasa gida. Mutanen da ba su da matsuguni suna mutuwa da yawa fiye da sauran jama'a kuma California tana da yawan marasa gida a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata, duk da cewa ana kashe kudi akan lamarin. Duk da haka, aƙalla wani ɓangare na wannan haɓaka zai iya - kamar yadda yake tare da wuce gona da iri - ana danganta shi da fentanyl kuma saboda haka yana da wahala a ware shi azaman lambobi masu hankali.
Waɗannan haɓaka biyun, duk da haka, na iya yin bayanin gaskiyar cewa “dukkan-dalilin” adadin mutuwa ga waɗanda ke cikin rukunin shekaru 25 zuwa 44 (yana da kwatankwacin adadin mutuwar kisa da rashin matsuguni) ya kasance - ban da makonni biyu na kwanan nan - sama da yanayin tarihi na yau da kullun.
Haɓaka yawan abin da ya wuce kima (da kuma mutuwar barasa) an haɗa kai tsaye zuwa ga martanin annoba a baya. A California, akwai kusan ƙarin mutuwar barasa 3,500 yayin amsawar cutar fiye da baya: 5,600 a cikin 2019 (kafin cutar,) 6,100 a cikin 2020, 7,100 a cikin 2021, 6,600 a cikin 2022, kuma 2023 yana kan saurin ganin 6,000.
Wannan har yanzu yana barin kusan rabin adadin wadanda suka mutu ba a tantance su ba, yana haifar da tambayoyi game da amincin harbin Covid (harbi, ba maganin alurar riga kafi ba) kanta. CDC ta lissafa mutuwar mutane 640 a California kai tsaye daga harbin da kuma karuwa a cikin "sakamako marasa kyau" daga harbin idan aka kwatanta da sauran ainihin alluran rigakafi. Adadin harbin “marasa kyau” na Covid ya kasance ɗaya cikin dubu ɗaya, yayin da, idan aka kwatanta, kusan ɗaya cikin miliyan ɗaya ne na rigakafin cutar shan inna.
Wato mutum ya kasance fiye da sau 9 kamar yiwuwar mutuwa daga harbin Covid kamar kowane allurar rigakafi da sau 6.5 da ta ji rauni ta wani salo.
Har yanzu wannan shine - bisa ga alkaluman jihar - bai isa ya bayyana karuwar ba.
Akwai wasu batutuwa guda uku da za a lura da su: na farko, yawancin tambayoyin kirgawa suna kusa da mutuwa "daga" Covid da "tare da" Covid, ma'ana za a iya haɓaka lambobin mutuwar Covid idan an tattara "withs" tare da "daga."
Na biyu, akwai al'amarin simmering na "iatrogenic" mutuwar - watau mutuwar da maganin ya yi. Tun da farko a cikin martanin cutar, an yi tura don "shaka" marasa lafiya da injina. Daga labarin da ke sama (babu iyakoki a cikin asali):
Anan ga kwatankwacin rashin kwanciyar hankali: a yankin NYC, adadin mace-mace ga duk masu cutar COV ICU ya kai kashi 78%. a stockholm, adadin TSIRA ya wuce 80%. wannan babban bambance-bambance ne. Babban bambanci: ventilators. NYC ta yi amfani da su akan 85% na marasa lafiya, sweden ta yi amfani da su sosai
Haɗe tare da sanya Covid marasa lafiya a gidajen jinya, adadin ainihin "kawai" ko "na halitta" (don rashin ingantaccen lokaci) Mutuwar Covid, kuma, na iya ƙaruwa.
Ma'aikatar Kiwon Lafiyar Jama'a ta jihar ta ki cewa komai kan lamarin.
Wanne ya dawo da mu zuwa Wachter da Collins oblique, kusan shigar da ba zato ba tsammani cewa amsa da kanta na iya haifar da gagarumar lalacewa da ci gaba a cikin ɓangarori na sirri da na jama'a.
Kwatanta California da sauran jihohi kuma yana nuna yanayin yanayi, musamman idan aka yi la'akari da sakamakon cutar. Yayin da ake karuwa a yawan jama'a, alal misali, karuwar yawan mutuwar Florida ya kasance / ya yi ƙasa da na California kamar yadda adadin mutuwar Covid ya kasance, gaskiyar Gov. Gavin Newsom ya kasance yana ƙarya game da shekaru.
Yayin barkewar cutar da kanta, al'ummar ta ga "dukkan dalilin" - gami da karuwar adadin mutuwar Covid kusan 16% sama da al'ada. Yin amfani da wannan ma'aunin, kamar yadda ya bayyana a fili martanin da kansa yana da tasirin ƙwanƙwasa - na California ya kasance 19.4% kuma na Florida ya kasance 16.7%, duk da martanin cutar daban-daban.
Ka yi tunanin, idan za ku so, kuna da ƙungiyar ƙwallon kwando kuma kuna da gajeren wando guda biyu, wanda ke samun dala miliyan 10 a shekara kuma ɗayan yana samun dala miliyan 1. Kuma ya bayyana cewa duka biyu suna da ƙwarewa daidai - kurakurai, ƙididdigar batting, da dai sauransu - kuma watakila mai rahusa shi ne ainihin maɗaukakiyar basira sai dai itace. Wanne gajere ne ya fi dacewa ga ƙungiyar? Mai ƙarancin tsada, ba shakka.
Wannan kwatanci ne da ya dace ga jihohin da ke zabar yadda za su magance cutar - Florida ta yanke dan wasan dala miliyan 10 yayin da California ta rike shi. A wasu kalmomi, jihohin biyu sun sami aiki iri ɗaya amma a farashin al'umma daban-daban.
Wannan tsari yana da alama da yawa daga cikin alkaluma sun fito da su. Babu shakka, jihohi daban-daban waɗanda suka ƙare ƙasa da matsakaicin ƙasa sun ɗauki hanyoyi daban-daban: North Dakota da New Jersey sun ga kusan adadin mace-mace iri ɗaya, kamar yadda Washington (jihar) da Dakota ta Kudu suka yi.
Wannan gaskiya ne a kan "babban gefen" kuma: California da Montana, Oregon da Arkansas nau'i-nau'i biyu ne waɗanda ke da lambobi iri ɗaya tare da hanyoyi daban-daban.
Duk wannan yana haifar da tambaya mai zurfi ta yadda da alama akwai kaɗan idan wani bambanci mai haifar da kai tsaye tsakanin martanin cutar sankara da taɓawa mai laushi.
Kuma hakan bai kamata ya kasance haka ba kwata-kwata: kulle-kulle, abin rufe fuska, harbi, nisantar da jama'a, rufe makarantu da shaguna da majami'u da wuraren shakatawa, da komai da komai yakamata ya haifar da bayyananniyar bambanci - idan masu cutar sun yi daidai.
Idan sun yi daidai, ya kamata bambancin sakamako ya kasance a bayyane kuma a bayyane ga ido tsirara. Miami yakamata yayi kama da Genoa bayan jiragen ruwa sun isa yayin da Los Angeles yakamata suyi kama da Sabuwar Eden. Idan samfurin "laushi" na Yaren mutanen Sweden ya kasance mai haɗari kamar yadda masu kamuwa da cutar suka ce, Stockholm ya kamata ya zama garin fatalwa.
Amma wannan ba gaskiya ba ne kuma shine dalilin da ya sa masu cutar amai da gudawa suke / a bayyane suke ba daidai ba.
Duk da yake akwai bambance-bambance tsakanin jihohi, ba lallai ba ne a ɗaure su kai tsaye zuwa takamaiman ƙayyadaddun manufofin ginawa (ajiye Hawaii, wanda za'a iya rangwame ta la'akari da keɓantacce labarin ƙasa). Amsar cutar mai wahala ko taushi, a cikin dogon lokaci da alama ba ta da mahimmanci a cikin adadin mutuwar Covid.
Inda ya yi - kuma har yanzu yana faruwa - kwayar halitta ita ce lalacewar nan da nan kuma mai dorewa mafi yawan martanin zalunci da aka samu kan al'umma gaba daya.
Kuma - idan yawan adadin mutuwar California alama ce - martanin cutar da kanta har yanzu tana kashe mutane.
Kuma hakan ma, tabbas bai kamata ya faru ba - idan masu cutar sun yi daidai.
Har ma ya fi matsala - har ma ya fi kyama - idan alkaluman mutuwar Covid sun yi yawa; Adadin mutuwar Covid na 105,000 ya kusan kashi 20% sama da sauran adadin wadanda ba na Covid-82,000 suka mutu ba na XNUMX.
A takaice dai, mutuwar "daga Covid" na iya zama ba ta bambanta da "daga martanin Covid" adadin mutuwar.
Kuma wannan yuwuwar ita ce mafi ban tsoro duka.
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Thomas Buckley shine tsohon magajin garin Lake Elsinore, Cal. Babban Aboki a Cibiyar Siyasa ta California, kuma tsohon mai ba da rahoto na jarida. A halin yanzu shi ne ma’aikacin karamar cibiyar sadarwa da shawarwari kuma ana iya samunsa kai tsaye a planbuckley@gmail.com. Kuna iya karanta ƙarin aikin nasa a shafin Substack ɗin sa.
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