Rashin gazawar banki yakan shigo cikin raƙuman ruwa, kuma muna fuskantar aƙalla ƙaramin igiyar ruwa a yanzu.
Bankuna sun kasa kasa don dalilai guda uku: 1. Canjin kuɗi: tabarbarewar ƙimar ƙima ta mai ba da bashi, yawanci saboda girgizar tattalin arziki mara kyau (misali., ɓangarorin gidaje). 2. Canjin balaga: rance gajere, bada rance mai tsawo, sannan kuma samun guduma lokacin da yawan riba ya tashi. 3. Canjin ruwa haɗe tare da matsananciyar rashin ruwa, Ga Diamond-Dybvig, inda mai ajiya mai ban sha'awa ya buƙaci tsabar kuɗi don kaiwa ga cirewa wanda ya wuce kadarorin ruwa don haka yana haifar da tallace-tallacen gobarar kadarorin da ba daidai ba.
Manyan manyan kasawa guda biyu na marigayi-Silicon Valley Bank da Silvergate - misalai ne na 2 da 3 bi da bi.
A wasu halaye, SVB shine mafi ban mamaki. Ba saboda banki ya gaza ta hanyar da aka saba ba, amma saboda an ba da kuɗin ta da farko ta hanyar adibas na ƙwararrun ƙwararrun kuɗi - kuma saboda martanin manufofin banƙyama na Baitulmali da Fed.
SVB ya karɓi oodles na tsabar kudi, musamman a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata. Cashcade yana da girma sosai cewa SVB ba zai iya samun isassun kasuwancin banki na gargajiya (rance) don jiƙa shi ba, don haka sun sayi tarin Baitulmali. Kuma dogon lokaci Treasuries don taya.
Kuma a sa'an nan Powell da Fed sun yi amfani da taya, suna haɓaka farashin. Sharuɗɗa sun ƙirƙira a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, kuma sun ɗauki ma'auni na SVB tare da shi.
Bugu da ƙari, wani tsohon labari. Kuma da kyar ke haifar da hatsarin tsari –sai dai idan irin wannan rashin daidaituwar balagagge ba su da tsari.
SVB shine Ma'aikacin Banki ga Silicon Valley Stars, musamman VCs da kamfanonin fasaha. Waɗannan kamfanoni sune waɗanda suka ajiye makudan kuɗi don musanyawa don riba mai yawa. A cikin batu, Roku, ya sanya kusan dala miliyan 500-eh, kun karanta wannan dama, adadi 9 ya jagoranci tare da 5-zuwa SVB!!!
Ina nufin: menene ef? Shin Ma'aji ya kasance ma'aikaci? Don wane ban da ’yan iska ba ne zai rike wannan tsabar kudi a cikin cibiya guda? (Roku ya yi iƙirarin na'urorinsa "sun sa gidanku ya zama mafi wayo." Wataƙila ya kamata su ɗauki hayar ma'ajin mafi wayo da CFO, ko maye gurbinsu da ɗayan na'urorinsa). Jahannama, me yasa kamfani ke riƙe da yawa a lokacin tsabar kuɗi?
Kadan daga cikin waɗannan da ake zargin masanan sararin samaniya (kamar Palantir) sun ga rubuce-rubucen a bangon kuma suka ɗauki ajiyar kuɗi: kudaden ajiya sun faɗi da kwata a ranar Juma'a kaɗai, tare da rufe halakar bankin. Wadanda ke tafiyar hawainiya sun yi ta kururuwa zuwa sararin sama a karshen mako cewa idan ba a samu ceto ba za a yi asarar rayuka a bangaren fasaha.
Ko da yake hadarin tsarin da SVB ya gaza ya yi (ko kuma idan ba haka ba, to, kowane banki yana da mahimmanci), Ma'aikatar Baitulmali da Fed sun amsa wadannan kururuwa. garantin duk ajiya–ko da yake FDIC ta ƙayyadaddun inshorar ajiyar ajiya shine $250,000. Ka sani, kashi 05 na ajiyar Roku.
Lokacin da aka kimanta wannan, mutum ba zai iya yin watsi da gaskiyar cewa Jam'iyyar Democrat gaba ɗaya tana kallon Silicon Valley. Wannan ya wuce abin kunya.
Mamaya Silicon Valley, kowa?
Sakatariyar Baitulmali Janet Yellen ta zagi bayanan sirrin mu ta hanyar tabbatar mana da cewa wannan ba wai ceto ba ne. To, ba wai ceton masu biyan haraji ba ne, a zahiri, domin baitul mali ba ta samar da koma baya ba. Madadin haka, ana samun kuɗin ta ne ta hanyar “kima na musamman” akan bankunan ƙarfi. Wadanda su ma masu biyan haraji ne suka mallaka kuma suke samun tallafi. Kuma irin wannan "kimanin" haraji ne a cikin komai sai dai suna-saboda gudummawa ce ta kamfanoni masu zaman kansu da gwamnati ta tilasta musu.
Manufofin manufofin wannan suna da illa. Dukan matsalar irin wannan ceto shine haɗarin ɗabi'a. Me zai hana bankuna shiga irin wannan hali na rashin hankali kamar yadda SVB ya yi idan za su iya samun kuɗaɗe marasa iyaka daga waɗanda suka san cewa za a ba da belin su idan abubuwa sun tafi da siffar pear?
Kuma gazawar tsari a nan yana nuna cewa ka'idojin banki - duk da sauye-sauyen da ake tsammani na Frankendodd - ba zai iya kama ko takurawa mafi tsufa dabarun fare-da-banki a cikin littafin ba. Bankin kyauta - babu inshorar ajiya, babu belin masu ajiya - ba zai iya yin muni ba, kuma zai iya yin mafi kyau.
A'a, gazawar SVB ba abin kunya ba ne a nan. Abin kunya shine martanin siyasa a kansa. Wannan ya sake bayyana yadda aka kama gwamnati. Wannan lokacin ba ta Wall Street ba, amma ta kamfanonin fasaha da oligarchs waɗanda a halin yanzu sune tushen tushen tallafin siyasa na Demokradiyya.
Makonni biyu da suka gabata labarin Silvergate ya yi kyau, amma SVB ya sanya shi cikin inuwa. Silvergate shima ya girma sosai, amma akan bayan crypto maimakon fasahar SV. Ya zama babban ma'aikacin banki ga kamfanoni na crypto da 'yan kasuwa da yawa. Narkewar crypto bai shafi Silvergate kai tsaye ba, amma ya murkushe masu ajiyar sa, kamfanoni na crypto da 'yan kasuwa da aka ambata. Sun cire makudan kudade da yawa, kuma rashin daidaiton kudaden shigar da aka saba yi a ciki.
A cikin bankunan gargajiya, kuɗaɗen ajiya “mai ɗaure ne”. Bankunan da suka dogara da kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗi ("kuɗin zazzaɓi") sun fi fuskantar haɗari. Tallafin Silvergate ba tallafin ajiya ba ne na al'ada, kuma ba kuɗi ne mai zafi ba da se. Kudi ne wanda yayi kyau sosai muddin crypto yana da sanyi, kuma ya zama zafi da zarar crypto ya narke.
An fara gudu, amma gudu ya rutsa da shi ta hanyar gigice. Labari mai sauƙi, gaske.
Rashin nasarar Silvergate ba abin kunya ba ne. Rashin gazawar SVB da se ba abin kunya ba ne (sai dai yadda manyan masu kula da bankunan mu suka kasa hana mafi girman nau'in gazawar).
Bugu da ƙari - abin kunya shine martani na siyasa wanda zai haifar da mummunan sakamako a nan gaba, kamar yadda martanin ya ba da tabbacin cewa za a sami ƙarin SVB a nan gaba.
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Dr Pirrong Farfesa ne na Kudi, kuma Daraktan Kasuwancin Makamashi na Cibiyar Gudanar da Makamashi ta Duniya a Kwalejin Kasuwancin Bauer na Jami'ar Houston. Ya taba zama Farfesa na Iyali na Watson na Kayayyaki da Gudanar da Hadarin Kuɗi a Jami'ar Jihar Oklahoma, kuma memba ne a Jami'ar Michigan, Jami'ar Chicago, da Jami'ar Washington.
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