A cikin Nuwamba 30, 2022, jawabin on "Kumburi da Kasuwar Aiki," Shugaban babban bankin tarayya Jerome Powell ya dora alhakin gazawar kusan miliyan 3.5 da aka yi kiyasin na ma’aikatan Amurka kan yin ritaya da wuri. Ya kuma zargi wani babban kaso - tsakanin 280,000 zuwa 680,000 - kan "dogon Covid." A cikin bayanin kula, duk da haka, Powell ya yarda da wani abu mai mahimmanci: an kiyasta mutuwar mutane 400,000 da ba zato ba tsammani tsakanin mutane masu shekaru masu aiki.
Yana da sauƙi a zargi waɗannan mutuwar akan Covid-19. Kwayar cutar ba shakka ita ce sanadi mai mahimmanci. Amma ba kusan ba ne kawai sanadin ba, musamman a tsakanin matasa da ma'aikata masu matsakaicin shekaru. Muna buƙatar ingantaccen bayanan gwamnati don yin cikakken kimantawa. Har sai lokacin, za mu iya ci gaba da wasu waɗanda ke bin diddigin mace-mace don rayuwa - kamfanonin inshorar rai.
Babban Rabo - 2020 vs. 2021
A cikin 2020, Covid-19 ya kashe rayuka da yawa, har ma a tsakanin zaɓaɓɓun rukunin mutane masu matsakaicin shekaru, musamman waɗanda ke da cututtuka kamar ciwon sukari. A cikin 2020, Covid ya yi ba kashe rayuka da yawa lafiya matasa da masu tsaka-tsakin shekaru - alal misali, nau'ikan mutanen da ke aiki a manyan kamfanoni da manyan kamfanoni da kuma waɗanda ke da inshorar rayuwa ta rukuni. Kamar yadda kuke gani a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, biyan fa'idodin inshorar rayuwa na rukuni a cikin 2020 ya yi ƙasa da na 2018.
A cikin 2021, duk da haka, biyan kuɗin rayuwa na rukuni ya fashe da kashi 20.7 bisa ɗari sama da matsakaicin shekara biyar da kashi 15 bisa ɗari a cikin shekarar 2020 mai tsanani. Me yasa matasa masu lafiya da masu matsakaicin shekaru za su fara mutuwa ba zato ba tsammani a cikin 2021 lokacin da za su kewaya 2020 tare da nasarar dangi?
Musamman idan muka yi la'akari da cewa a cikin 2021, Amurka ta ba da alluran rigakafin Covid-520 miliyan 19. Shin bai kamata mutane masu lafiya da ke aiki a cikin kyawawan ayyuka tare da fa'idodi masu kyau, yanzu ana kiyaye su da alluran rigakafi, sun sami nasara a cikin 2021 fiye da na 2020? Lallai, yawan allurai da kashe kansa sun karu a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Amma waɗannan abubuwan da ke haifar da mace-mace ba su da fice a cikin ƙungiyoyin rayuwar jama'a gabaɗaya, kuma sabbin bayanai sun tabbatar da waɗannan ba su ne ke haifar da hauhawar rayuwar ƙungiyar ba. Abin mamaki, biyu daga cikin mafi girma a cikin 2021 sun fito ne daga hadurran mota da ba na mota ba.
Mutuwar Shekara Dubu
Bari mu dubi kaɗan daga cikin waɗannan ƙungiyoyin matasa masu tasowa daki-daki. A cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, mun ƙaddamar da jimillar mace-mace zuwa rukuni uku - 30-34, 35-39, da 40-44. Ƙwallon ido na ginshiƙi kawai yana nuna cewa abubuwan ban da Covid-19 da kanta dole ne sun haifar da babban adadin mace-mace a cikin matasa da ma'aikata masu matsakaicin shekaru. (Muna amfani da kididdiga na hukuma, wanda wataƙila ya zarce yawan mace-macen Covid da rashin sanin yawan mace-macen da ba na Covid ba. Shi ne mafi kyawun da muka samu a yanzu.)
- Mafi mahimmancin batun gabaɗaya shine 2021 ya kasance mafi sharri ga matasa da masu matsakaicin shekaru sama da 2020.
- Wani mahimmin batu shine 2022 ya kasance kuma mafi muni fiye da 2020, kodayake ba kamar 2021 mara kyau ba.
- Adadin mace-mace a cikin 2022 har yanzu sun yi girma sosai fiye da tushen cutar kafin barkewar cutar.
A cikin jadawali ukun da ke sama, mun ƙiyasta 2022* jimillar mace-mace saboda Nuwamba da Disamba har yanzu na wucin gadi ne kuma ana fuskantar bita. Mun yi abin da muka yi imani hasashe ne masu ma'ana. Alkaluman canji% sun danganta da matsakaicin 2018-19. Waɗannan cikakkun lambobi ne waɗanda ba a daidaita su don haɓaka yawan jama'a ko girman ƙungiyar.
Covid-19 ya yi zafi sosai a cikin 2020, musamman ga tsofaffi, masu rauni, da masu cutarwa. A takaice dai, Covid-19 ya ɗauki yawancin marasa lafiya daga gare mu a cikin 2020. A ka'ida, saboda haka, ƙaramin adadin mutanen da ba su da lafiya za su iya kamuwa da Covid-19 a cikin 2021 da 2022. Yawancin shekarun mace-mace galibi suna biye da ƙarancin mace-mace. Bayan biyu a jere yawan mace-mace shekaru, da shekara ta uku shi ne ma mafi kusantar zama low-mutuwa. Don 2022 ya zama mara kyau, ko ɗan muni, fiye da 2020, don haka babban abin mamaki ne. Bambance-bambancen Omicron na bara sun sa yawan mace-mace na 2022 ya fi ban mamaki.
Matukar mace-mace na da mahimmanci don fahimtar ko manufofin kiwon lafiyar jama'a suna aiki. Lambobin-dukkan dalilai kuma na iya taimakawa wajen fallasa kuskuren tunani lokacin da kunkuntar kunkuntar, da rikitarwa, ko kuma wayo fiye da kima ko kuma ɓoye mahimman sigina. Misali, bincike wanda aka yi niyya don nuna kulle-kulle ya rage mutuwar Covid amma wanda ya yi watsi da nuna wasu mutuwar ya karu, ba zai nuna jimlar tasirin manufofin ba. Hakazalika, maganin chemotherapy wanda ke rage ciwace-ciwacen daji amma yana kashe marasa lafiya na iya yin nasara a cikin kunkuntar aikinsa amma ya gaza babban manufa. Yawancin manazarta da hukumomin lafiya sun yi watsi da duk wani dalili a cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata. Alkaluman dalilan da ke sama sun nuna manufofinmu na Covid ba su yi nasara ba.
Don wasu dalilai, duk da haka, yana da taimako har ma ya zama dole a haƙa kan takamaiman dalilai. Hakanan ana iya yin asarar sigina masu mahimmanci a cikin manyan ƙungiyoyi - Simpson's paradox, alal misali, mafarki ne na ƙididdiga na kowa. (Kaɗan sun yi zurfin zurfi, tare da takamaiman takamaiman, kamar John Beaudoin, injiniya daga Massachusetts wanda ya sami damar yin amfani da bayanan mutuwar dijital na jiharsa tsawon shekaru takwas da suka gabata. Ya nuna cewa takamaiman abubuwan da ke haifar da mutuwa suna karuwa da faɗuwa a lokuta da lokuta masu mahimmanci. Ba a tsara bayanan CDC tare da irin wannan girman ba. Karin bayani kan binciken Beaudoin a makonni masu zuwa…)
Mun san cewa shekarun baya-bayan nan sun ga karuwar yawan shan kwayoyi da kashe-kashen kai, wanda ya kara saurin kulle-kullen cutar. Ko da yake waɗannan abubuwan da ke damun su ba za su iya yin bayanin babban adadin mace-macen da ba a taɓa gani ba a sama, ya kamata mu yi ƙoƙarin yin lissafinsu. Hakanan, kodayake Covid-19 bai haifar da duk waɗannan mutuwar rikodin ba, abu ne mai mahimmanci.
Rashin Aiki
Don haka sai mu kara zurfafa. Idan muka cire duka biyun Covid-19 da kuma mutuwar da ba ta dace ba (kisan kai, kashe kansa, fiye da kima, da sauransu), za mu ga hauhawar dabi'un halitta, wadanda ba COVID-19 ba a tsakanin mutanen da ke aiki a lokacin bazara da bazara na 2021. CDC daga nan ta daina buga cikakken bayanan da ke warware waɗannan nau'ikan.
Amma mun san wannan yanayin ya ci gaba. A gaskiya ma, ya yi muni sosai. Kamfanonin inshorar rayuwa sun gaya mana haka. A ranar 30 ga Disamba, 2021, taron bidiyo tare da Cibiyar Kasuwancin Indiana, Shugaba na OneAmerica Scott Davison ruwaito da gigita:
"Kuma abin da muka gani kawai a cikin kwata na uku, muna ganin yana ci gaba da zuwa kwata na hudu, shine adadin wadanda suka mutu ya karu da kashi 40% akan abin da suka kasance kafin barkewar cutar."
"40% kawai ba a ji ba."
"Wataƙila ba duka ba ne COVID a kan takardar shaidar mutuwar su, amma mutuwar ta yi yawa, adadi mai yawa."
Bayan watanni da yawa, Lincoln National ruwaito kudadensa na 2021 sun kasance dala biliyan 1.4, sabanin dala miliyan 548 a cikin 2020, haɓakar kashi 164 cikin ɗari.
Kamar yadda zaku tuna gani a cikin ginshiƙi guda uku, Agusta, Satumba, da Oktoba na 2021 sun nuna kumfa mai girma - mafi munin lokacin mutuwar matasa da matsakaitan shekaru, aƙalla a zamanin yau.
Ciwon zuciya, shanyewar jiki, embolism na huhu, hatsarori, da yawa da ba za a iya bayyana su ba. mutuwar kwatsam, wanda ya ci gaba har zuwa 2022, kuma yanzu a cikin 2023. Ga Society of Actuaries Nuwamba 2022 sabuntawa, wanda zai wuce Yuni 2022.
Source: Society of Actuaries, Rukunin Rayuwa na Covid-19 Rahoto Na Mutuwar Mutuwa, Nuwamba 2022.
Gaskiya ne cewa ƙarshen bazara da lokacin bazara na 2021 sun yi daidai da igiyar ruwan Delta a cikin Amurka, wanda ya fi kamuwa da cuta kuma ya bayyana ya fi kamuwa da cuta fiye da bambance-bambancen da suka gabata. (Mun yi shawara Shirye-shiryen rigakafin da yawa na iya samun, ta hanyar matsananciyar matsananciyar juyin halitta, haifar da haɗuwa zuwa mafi kamuwa da cuta, bambance-bambancen rigakafin rigakafin. Sabon bincike da aka buga a cikin New England Journal of Medicine ya ci gaba da ƙarfafa bambance-bambancen binciken mu na tserewa: Ƙwararren Ƙwararren Ƙwararren Ƙwararru ta SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants BQ.1.1 da XBB.1.)
Jami'an tarayya da cibiyar kiwon lafiya, za ku iya tunawa, sun yi jayayya a cikin 2021 cewa "cutar marasa lafiya ce." Hatta kungiyar masu fafutuka ta yi yunƙurin yin bayani game da bincikenta mai ban tsoro ta hanyar nuna cewa mutuwar ta faru ne saboda rashin allurar rigakafi. Yana yin haka tare da koma baya na yawan mace-mace da yawan allurar rigakafi a duk faɗin jihar har zuwa Yuni 30, 2021.
Amma ku tuna waɗancan alluran rigakafin miliyan 520. Ta yaya za ku iya haifar da ƙarin mace-mace a cikin 2021 - kuna danganta su ga rashin rigakafi - tare da ƙaramin adadin mutanen da ba a yi musu allurar ba? A cikin 2021, watakila kashi 20-40 na waɗannan inshorar rayuwa ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba. A cikin 2020, kashi 100 daga cikinsu ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba, amma da kyar ake samun mace-mace. Lissafin baya kusa da aiki.
Ƙungiyoyin masu shekaru 40-44, alal misali, sun sami ƙarin mutuwar kashi 21.5 cikin ɗari a cikin 2021 fiye da 2020. Wannan mummunan sakamako ya faru tare da ƙasa da rabin abin da ake kira masu kamuwa da cuta saboda matsayinsu na rashin rigakafi. Yana da wahala a iya tabbatar da ingantaccen ingancin rigakafin lokacin da allurai-bayan da aka ba da su da kuma mace-mace ke yin tamari.
A gefe guda, bayanan inshorar rayuwa na rukuni sun nuna ƙungiyoyin da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi sun sami sakamako mafi muni. Ya zuwa watan Agusta, yawancin kamfanoni da kungiyoyi masu girma da yawa a duk fadin kasar suna da umarnin rigakafin, kuma yawancin ma'aikata sun bi. Duk da haka waɗannan ma'aikatan sun sha wahala mai ban mamaki - hakika, adadin mutuwar da ba a taɓa gani ba - a cikin 2021, musamman rabin na biyu na 2021.
Source: Society of Actuaries, Rukunin Rayuwa na Covid-19 Rahoto Na Mutuwar Mutuwa, Nuwamba 2022.
Ed Dowd, tsohon manajan fayil na BlackRock, yana nuna wani muhimmin mahimmanci a cikin littafinsa Dalilin da ba a sani ba. Ma'aikatan da ke da manufofin inshorar rayuwa na rukuni sun fi koshin lafiya fiye da ƙungiyar jama'a gabaɗaya. Yawanci suna mutuwa a ƙananan ƙimar, kawai kashi 30-40 na yawan jama'a. Wannan doka ce ta aikin ƙarfe. A cikin 2021, duk da haka, kamar yadda kuke gani a cikin ginshiƙi kai tsaye a sama, waɗannan Amurkawa ma'aikata sun mutu akan ƙimar da ta wuce gona da iri fiye da manyan takwarorinsu marasa lafiya.
Za mu iya kuma nuna nakasa mai saurin tashi a matsayin mabuɗin mahimmanci a cikin ƙarancin ma'aikata. Shugaban Fed Powell ya zarge shi akan dogon Covid. Har yanzu, duk da haka, lokacin bai dace da wannan labarin sosai ba.
Don wuce gona da iri:
A cikin 2020, masu rauni sun mutu daga Covid a cikin ƙimar da ba a saba gani ba. A cikin 2021 da 2022, Covid ya ci gaba da kai harin, amma matasa, masu matsakaicin shekaru, da lafiya kuma sun mutu a cikin adadi mai yawa na wani abu daban.
Wadannan alamu suna maimaitawa a fadin duniya masu tasowa masu tasowa - Jamus, Birtaniya, Japan, Koriya ta Kudu, Australia.
Sake bugawa daga marubucin Mayarwa
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Bret Swanson ɗan'uwa ne na Cibiyar Brownstone kuma shugaban kamfanin bincike na fasaha Entropy Economics LLC, babban ɗan'uwa a Cibiyar Kasuwancin Amurka, kuma ya rubuta Infonomena Substack.
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