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Samfura a cikin ilimin cututtuka na iya zama madadin mai amfani ga gaskiya, saboda sau da yawa ba shi yiwuwa a lura da yin rikodin duk hulɗar gaske a cikin tsarin sarƙaƙƙiya. Ta yunƙurin rage tsarin zuwa jerin ƙididdiga ko rarraba tushen yiwuwar yiwuwar, yana yiwuwa a samar da sakamakon da zai iya yin la'akari, zuwa matsayi mai amfani, abin da zai iya faruwa a ƙarƙashin wasu yanayi a yanayi. Ya fi arha da sauri fiye da gudanar da binciken lura na dogon lokaci a cikin sassa daban-daban na cututtukan cututtuka.
Kyawun juyar da manyan karatun shekaru masu kama da juna zuwa ƴan daƙiƙa na babban ƙarfin kwamfuta a bayyane yake. Duk da haka, kasancewar dogara gaba ɗaya ga ƙirar shirin da sigogin shigar da shirin da aka umurce shi don ƙididdige su, abubuwan da aka fitar sun fi kama da hoton da ɗan adam ya zana fiye da rikodin fina-finai na wani abu na halitta. Kamar zane mai girma biyu, yana iya samar da ƙimar gaskiya mai amfani idan mai zane ya so kuma ya ƙware sosai. A madadin haka, yana iya ba da hoto wanda zai kai mai kallo ya ga abubuwan da ba su faruwa a yanayi, wuce gona da iri yayin rage wasu, wanda ta hanyar ƙira ko ta hanyar haɗari na iya haifar da motsin rai ko halayen da kallo kai tsaye ba zai haifar da su ba. Yayin samar da mahimman bayanai, yana da mafi kyawun kwaikwayi.
Samfuran cututtukan ɗan adam yana ƙara yin rikitarwa yayin da aka yi niyya don hasashen abubuwan da ba kasafai suke faruwa ba a matakin yawan jama'a, yayin da yanayi da martanin da ke haɓaka ko rage cututtuka suna canzawa sosai kan lokaci. Cututtuka masu yaduwa a baya sun kashe kusan rabin yara kafin su kai shekaru 10, amma a halin yanzu mace-mace ba ta cika yin kasa a gwiwa ba a kasashe masu arziki saboda sauye-sauyen tsafta, yanayin rayuwa, abinci mai gina jiki, da kuma bullowar maganin kashe kwayoyin cuta. Matsalolin mace-mace kamar su Mutuwa Baki, mai yiwuwa saboda kwayoyin cuta Yersinia pestis, yanzu ba su da yuwuwa saboda yanayin muhalli da ke inganta su ba su da yawa kuma ana yin maganin kamuwa da cuta tare da maganin rigakafi na yau da kullun. Dogaro da irin waɗannan abubuwan da suka faru na tarihi don hasashen yuwuwar haɗarin kiwon lafiya na yanzu zai zama kamar hasashen amincin tafiye-tafiyen jirgin sama na zamani dangane da aikin ƙirar jirgin sama na asali na 'yan uwan Wright.
Tun farkon barkewar cutar ta Covid-19, da kuma wasu shekaru da suka gabata, an sami ƙarin fifikon kula da lafiyar jama'a na duniya kan haɗarin barkewar annoba da annoba. Yayin da wannan na iya zama kamar bai dace ba idan aka yi la’akari da ci gaba da raguwar mace-macen cututtuka a duniya gabaɗaya a baya. 30 shekaru, damuwar ta haifar da buƙatun neman tallafin da ba a taɓa gani ba da kuma sake fasalin hukumomin kiwon lafiya da yawa na duniya. Rahoton da aka buga a cikin 2024 ta aikin REPPARE a Jami'ar Leeds, Manufofin Hankali Kan Firgici, ya nuna cewa an yi kuskuren bayyana haɗarin a cikin rahotannin wasu manyan hukumomin ƙasa da ƙasa da ke da hannu a cikin rigakafin cutar, shirye-shirye, da kuma mayar da martani (PPPR). Babban dalili shi ne gazawar yin la'akari da ci gaba a fannin kiwon lafiya da ci gaban fasaha don ganowa da rikodin barkewar cututtuka.
Tare da mummunan yanayin cutar ta Covid-19, ƙasashe da yawa suna yin bitar martanin lafiyar jama'a da fifiko da kuma hanyar da ya kamata a magance haɗarin cutar nan gaba. Membobin Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya suna ci gaba da tattaunawa kan shirin Yarjejeniyar annoba da yarda da gyare-gyaren kwanan nan zuwa ga Dokokin Lafiya ta Duniya. A halin yanzu, an riga an kafa sabbin cibiyoyin PPPR da yawa, gami da sabo Asusun Cutar Cutar, Cibiyar Kula da Cututtuka ta Duniya, Da kuma wani Dandalin Ma'auni na Likita, duk waɗannan suna sabunta shari'o'in zuba jari da bukatun kuɗi.
Samfuran tsinkaya ta Metabiota, kamfani yanzu ya mamaye shi Ayyukan Ginkgo, ya ba da gudummawa sosai ga tattaunawar game da haɗarin kamuwa da cuta da kuma buƙatar ƙarin kuɗi. Ya zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan hanyoyin guda biyu don kimanta haɗarin a cikin G20 High Level Independent Panel (HLIP) Rahoton a watan Yunin 2021, wanda ya yi tasiri wajen sanar da kungiyar G20 ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya. goyon bayan don tsarin PPPR na WHO. GYARA a baya magana damuwa game da fassarar samfurin samfurin bisa ga takarda ta Meadows et al. (2023) wanda ya haɗa da Metabiota (Ginkgo Bioworks) marubucin. Ginkgo Bioworks yanzu sun samar da wani karin cikakken rahoto zuwa Hukumar Sarauta ta New Zealand akan Koyarwar COVID-19 - Kiyasin Mutuwar nan gaba daga Cututtukan Cutar Kwayar cuta da Cutar Kwalara - daga baya ake kira rahoton Bioworks.
Rahoton Bioworks yana da nufin yin hasashen barazanar annoba da annoba ga lafiyar ɗan adam. Ana ƙididdige haɗari ta hanyar ilimin lissafi da kuma abubuwan da suka faru na ƙirar ƙira don ƙididdige yawan mace-mace daga “ƙananan mitar, babban tsanani” annoba da cututtuka daga cututtukan numfashi, musamman cutar mura, coronaviruses labari, da zazzabin jini na hoto (VHFs).
Ana iya ganin mitar dangi da girman barkewar cutar a cikin hoton da ke ƙasa daga rahoton Bioworks. Duk da yake kusan dukkanin abubuwan da suka faru ba su da ƙarancin mace-mace, kamar yadda duk cututtukan zamani waɗanda aka tabbatar da asalin halitta sun kasance, babban direban matsakaicin mutuwar 'da ake tsammani' na shekara-shekara yana samuwa daga abubuwan da ba kasafai ba amma manyan al'amura masu girma da duniya ba ta gani ba tun lokacin haɓakar magungunan zamani.
Hoto na 5 a cikin rahoton Bioworks, yana kwatanta tasirin dangi akan matsakaita mace-mace na shekara-shekara na abubuwan da ba kasafai suke faruwa ba amma masu yawan mace-mace. Abin lura, manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da matsakaicin mace-mace na shekara-shekara, abubuwan da suka faru na mutuwar mutane miliyan 23 da sama a cikin Panel B, ba su faru ba tun zuwan maganin rigakafi na zamani. Abubuwan da suka fi girma na mace-mace guda biyu a cikin Panel B waɗanda ke ba da gudummawa kusan kashi 50% na jimlar adadin mace-mace mai yiwuwa ba su faru ba a cikin shekaru 500 da suka gabata.
Rahoton Bioworks ya kammala da cewa ana iya danganta kusan mutane miliyan 2.5 da ke mutuwa a kowace shekara sakamakon kamuwa da cutar ta numfashi (miliyan 1.6 ga cutar mura kadai). Mutane da yawa za su ga waɗannan sakamakon ba su da tushe. Ba a taɓa samun mace-macen mura irin na shekara-shekara a cikin ƙarni ba, kuma sau biyu kawai a cikin karni da ya gabata, a cikin 1957-8 da 1968-9, shin yawan mace-mace ya kai abin da samfurin ya nuna shine matsakaici. WHO ta yi la'akari da Covid-19, idan an haɗa shi azaman fashewar dabi'a, yana da rahoton mutuwar sama da miliyan bakwai a cikin shekaru uku.
Dangane da VHF, rahoton ya kiyasta kimanin mutane 26,000 a duniya, da 19,000 a yankin kudu da hamadar Sahara. Wannan ya fi wanda aka rubuta a baya a kowace shekara. Mafi girma a cikin tarihin kwanan nan, barkewar cutar Ebola ta 2014, ta haifar da adalci 11,325 mutuwar. An yi hasashen zazzaɓin jini zai haura 100,000 a duk shekara 25 mace-mace tare da yuwuwar kashi 48%, lamarin da ba zai taɓa faruwa ba a tarihin ɗan adam.
Manyan sa ido guda biyu suna haifar da waɗannan sakamakon. Na farko, samfurin ya yi watsi da canje-canje a cikin al'umma da magani a cikin shekaru ɗaruruwan da suka gabata waɗanda suka ga matsakaicin duniya rai rai ya tashi daga ƙasa da shekaru 30 zuwa sama da 70, kuma sama da shekaru 80 a wasu ƙasashe masu arziki (duba ƙasa). Don haka, cututtuka irin su Plague (Plague).Y. kwari), kuma cututtuka irin su kwalara da typhus da ke da alaƙa da rashin tsafta ana tsammanin za su sake dawowa da girma da ya dace da bala'in tarihi mai yawa. Murar Mutanen Espanya a cikin 1918-19 ta haifar da mace-mace mai yawa saboda na biyu kwayan cututtuka, wanda ba zai iya sake faruwa ba tun bayan zuwan maganin rigakafi na zamani.
Haɓaka tsawon rayuwa a yankuna daban-daban a cikin shekaru 250 da suka gabata, yana nuna nasarori masu ban mamaki a cikin ƙarnin da suka gabata tare da ingantattun yanayin rayuwa, tsafta, abinci mai gina jiki da ayyukan kiwon lafiya. Tushen: UN WPP (2022); HMD (2023); Zijdeman et al. (2015); Riley (2005) - tare da ƙananan aiki ta Duniyar Mu a cikin Bayanai. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy
Na biyu, samfurin ya kasa yin la'akari da bayyanar cututtuka na zamani kamar PCR, antigen-care antigen da serology gwajin da tsarin kwayoyin halitta, da ingantaccen ikon yin rikodi da watsa irin waɗannan bayanai. Don haka, ana ɗauka cewa haɓakar rahoton yana nuna haɓakar gaske a mitar fashewa maimakon nuna ingantaccen ikon ganowa. Sa'an nan samfurin yana ɗaukar ci gaba da wannan karuwa a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.
Dangane da manyan canje-canjen da aka samu a fannin likitanci a cikin shekaru 100 da suka gabata, da kuma ci gaba da zaman lafiya. ragewa a cikin mace-macen cututtuka masu yaduwa, tunanin da ke tattare da hasashen samfurin ya zama kamar ba zai yuwu ba. Duk da yake ci gaban nan gaba a fannin likitanci yana da wahalar aunawa, yana da kyau a ɗauka cewa ci gaban ayyukan tsafta, abinci mai gina jiki, gidaje, bincike, maganin rigakafi, da alluran rigakafi a cikin ƙarni da suka gabata za su ci gaba tare da ƙarin rage haɗari a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Duk da yake juriya na ƙwayoyin cuta na iya faruwa, matsala ce galibi ga cututtukan cututtuka fiye da annoba, kuma za a ci gaba da ci gaba a matakan rigakafin ƙwayoyin cuta.
Samfuran irin wannan ya zama mai tasiri sosai a ci gaban manufofin. Yayin da ƙarfin kwamfuta ke ƙaruwa, yana da jaraba don tunanin cewa daidaiton tsinkaya yana ƙaruwa. Koyaya, samfuri tare da zato marasa gaskiya da sigogin shigarwa kawai yana samun sakamako maras tabbas a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.
A matsayin motsa jiki na ilimi, ƙirar ƙira na iya taimakawa wajen tayar da tambayoyi don amsa ta hanyar bincike mai zurfi. Amma duk da haka, lokacin da aka yi amfani da shi ba daidai ba kuma an wuce gona da iri a matsayin jagora ga manufofi, yana fuskantar haɗarin karkatar da kuɗin kuɗi da albarkatun ɗan adam daga nauyin cututtuka na gaske zuwa abubuwan ban tsoro. Wannan zai haifar da karuwar mace-mace, saboda sakamakon cututtukan cututtuka masu yawa na yanzu, kamar su. da zazzabin cizon sauro da kuma da tarin fuka, ci gaba da dogaro sosai kan samun taimakon ci gaban hukuma (ODA, ko 'taimakon ƙasashen waje'). ODA don tallafin abinci mai gina jiki, mahimmanci don inganta sakamakon lafiya, ya ragu da kashi 20% cikin shekaru huɗu da suka gabata. Dangane da hasashe ciki har da wanda aka tattauna a nan, daidai da kusan kashi 50% na pre-Covid ODA an gabatar da shi don shirye-shiryen annoba da amsawa. Wannan zai rage mahimmancin shiga tsakani a wani wuri.
Ci gaban fasaha ya taimaka wajen rage yawan cututtuka, ciki har da mace-mace. Yin amfani da fasaha mara kyau ta hanyar amfani da ƙira ba daidai ba zai iya kawar da yawancin waɗannan fa'idodi masu mahimmanci. Ta hanyar kwatankwacin, ba za mu yi la'akari da yuwuwar tsirar tafiye-tafiyen iska ta tekun Atlantika ba dangane da yuwuwar murfin fikafikan zane. Haka kuma bai kamata mu tantance yuwuwar tsira da annoba a nan gaba ba dangane da zamanin likitancin Medieval.
Notes:
Ana iya samun cikakken rahoto a: https://essl.leeds.ac.uk/downloads/download/254/when-models-and-reality-clash-a-review-of-predictions-of-epidemic-and-pandemic-mortality
Rahoton REPPARE game da haɗarin kamuwa da cuta da kuma ba da kuɗaɗe don shirye-shiryen cutar da kuma ajandar mayar da martani suna: https://essl.leeds.ac.uk/directories0/dir-record/research-projects/1260/reevaluating-the-pandemic-preparedness-and-response-agenda-reppare
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REPPARE (Sake kimanta Shirye-shiryen Cutar Kwayar cuta Da Ajandar Amsa) ya ƙunshi ƙungiyar darussan da yawa da Jami'ar Leeds ta kira.
Garrett W. Brown
Garrett Wallace Brown shine Shugaban Manufofin Lafiya na Duniya a Jami'ar Leeds. Shi ne Co-Jagoran na Sashen Bincike na Lafiya na Duniya kuma zai zama Darakta na sabuwar Cibiyar Haɗin gwiwar WHO don Tsarin Lafiya da Tsaron Lafiya. Binciken nasa ya mayar da hankali kan gudanar da harkokin kiwon lafiya na duniya, ba da kuɗaɗen kiwon lafiya, ƙarfafa tsarin kiwon lafiya, daidaiton lafiya, da ƙiyasin farashi da yuwuwar bayar da tallafi na shirye-shiryen rigakafin cutar da martani. Ya gudanar da manufofi da haɗin gwiwar bincike a cikin lafiyar duniya fiye da shekaru 25 kuma ya yi aiki tare da kungiyoyi masu zaman kansu, gwamnatoci a Afirka, DHSC, FCDO, Ofishin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na Birtaniya, WHO, G7, da G20.
David Bell
David Bell likita ne na asibiti da lafiyar jama'a tare da PhD a cikin lafiyar jama'a da asali a cikin likitancin ciki, ƙirar ƙira da cututtukan cututtukan cututtuka. A baya can, ya kasance Darakta na Fasahar Kiwon Lafiya ta Duniya a Asusun Intellectual Ventures Global Good Fund a Amurka, Shugaban Shirin Malaria da Cutar Cutar Kwalara a Gidauniyar Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) a Geneva, kuma ya yi aiki a kan cututtuka masu yaduwa da daidaita dabarun gano cutar zazzabin cizon sauro a Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya. Ya yi aiki na tsawon shekaru 20 a fannin kimiyyar halittu da lafiyar jama'a na duniya, tare da wallafe-wallafe sama da 120. David yana zaune a Texas, Amurka.
Blagovesta Tacheva
Blagovesta Tacheva ƙwararren mai bincike ne na REPPARE a Makarantar Siyasa da Nazarin Duniya a Jami'ar Leeds. Tana da PhD a cikin Harkokin Ƙasashen Duniya tare da gwaninta a ƙirar cibiyoyi na duniya, dokokin kasa da kasa, 'yancin ɗan adam, da martanin jin kai. Kwanan nan, ta gudanar da bincike na hadin gwiwa na WHO game da shirye-shiryen cutar sankara da kiyasin farashin mayar da martani da yuwuwar samar da sabbin hanyoyin samar da kudade don saduwa da wani yanki na wannan kiyasin. Matsayinta a cikin ƙungiyar REPPARE shine ta bincika shirye-shiryen cibiyoyi na yanzu waɗanda ke da alaƙa da shirye-shiryen balaguron balaguro da ajandar mayar da martani da kuma tantance dacewarta ta la'akari da nauyin haɗari da aka gano, farashin dama da sadaukarwa ga wakilci / yanke shawara mai adalci.
Jean Merlin von Agris
Jean Merlin von Agris dalibi ne na REPPARE wanda ke samun tallafin PhD a Makarantar Siyasa da Nazarin Duniya a Jami'ar Leeds. Yana da digiri na biyu a fannin raya tattalin arziki tare da sha'awar ci gaban karkara na musamman. Kwanan nan, ya mai da hankali kan yin bincike kan iyaka da tasirin ayyukan da ba na magunguna ba yayin bala'in Covid-19. A cikin aikin REPPARE, Jean zai mai da hankali kan tantance zato da kuma ƙwaƙƙwaran tushen shaida da ke ƙunshe da shirye-shiryen balaguron bala'in duniya da ajandar mayar da martani, tare da mai da hankali musamman kan abubuwan da ke haifar da jin daɗi.
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