Makonni biyu da suka gabata, na rubuta game da tashin Sabon Dama da kuma ƙalubalen da yake fuskanta ga yarjejeniya mai sassaucin ra'ayi akan manufofin zamantakewa, tattalin arziki, da muhalli; rarrabuwar kawuna na tsohuwar akidar hagu-dama ta tsakanin manyan masu gudanar da fasaha na cikin gida da mazauna Hiluxland; da kuma karuwar rashin jin daɗin dimokuradiyya saboda murdiya ta hanyar da zaɓin masu jefa ƙuri'a ya kasa fassara zuwa wakilcin siyasa. Dukkan shawarwari guda uku sun tabbatar da zaben Burtaniya. A tarihin dimokuradiyya ba a taba zabar mutane da yawa da 'yan kadan ba.
Hukuncin da Tories ya yi ta hanyar fusata tsoffin magoya bayan da ke jiran zaɓe tare da jemagu na ƙwallon kwando zuwa shirye-shiryen bai yi daidai da amincewar Labour ba. Hudu daga cikin biyar da suka cancanci kada kuri'a sun ki ko kuma sun kasa zaben Starmer's Labour. Manyan wadanda suka yi hasara na gajeren lokaci su ne Tories, Reform, and Democracy, wanda ya yi nasara na gajeren lokaci shi ne Labour, amma wanda ya ci nasara na dogon lokaci yana iya zama Reform.
Zaftarewar kasa ta Labour ta bayyana mafi karancin kuri'un da kowace jam'iyya mai mulki ta samu tun a shekarar 1945, watakila tun a shekarar 1923 lokacin da Labour ta samu kashi 31 cikin dari kacal. Mafi rinjayen Keir Starmer ya fi na Jeremy Corbyn sama da kashi 1.5 a 2019 kuma maki biyar ya ragu da kuri'u miliyan 3.2 kasa da na Corbyn a 2017. Nisa daga Starmageddon, wannan rugujewar jam'iyyar Conservative ce. Sakamakon haka, Starmer ya yi nasara ga zabtarewar ƙasa amma ba shi da wani sanannen umarni. Tushen 'zaftarewar ƙauna marar ƙauna' ta Starmer ta dogara ne akan yashi mai canzawa na fushin populist akan Tories. Rabon kuri'un ya sa ya zama mai sauƙi a iya tunanin gwamnatin wa'adi ɗaya, amma idan ƙananan 'yan mazan jiya' sun zana darussan da suka dace.
Domin sanya sakamakon Burtaniya a mahangar, la'akari da abin da ya faru a Faransa 'yan kwanaki kadan a zagaye na karshe na zaben 'yan majalisar dokoki. Ƙungiyar Marine Le Pen ta Rassemblement ta ƙasa ta sami kujeru 143 (kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na jimlar) kuma an tura shi zuwa matsayi na uku, duk da nasara. Kashi 37.3 na kuri'un da aka kada – kashi 11-12 bisa dari fiye da na kawancen hagu da kuma jam’iyyar Macron ta tsakiya da kashi 3.5 bisa dari fiye da Labour na Burtaniya. Wadanda suka dogara da MSM za a iya gafartawa don rashin sanin cewa daga zagaye na farko zuwa na biyu, da Ƙungiyoyin RN sun ƙara yawan kuri'u da kashi 3.8 - mafi yawan kowane rukuni - yayin da kawancen hagu ya rasa kashi 2.4. Sakamakon ya nuna dabarar kada kuri'a ta masu ra'ayin rikau da jam'iyyu masu barin gado wadanda kawai manufar hadin kai da manufa daya ita ce ta hana Le Pen daga mulki. Ko wannan zai tabbatar da isasshen manne don baiwa majalisar da ta wargaje a akida damar gudanar da mulki, tambaya ce mai kyau kwarai da gaske.
Komawa Birtaniya a 1992 mutane kusan miliyan 14 ne suka zabi jam'iyyar Conservative. A cikin mummunan zaɓen da aka yi shekaru biyar bayan haka, adadin ya ragu zuwa miliyan 9.5 amma ya sake dawowa zuwa miliyan 14 a shekarar 2019. A sakamakon zaɓen da aka yi a makon da ya gabata, jam'iyyar ta ragu zuwa miliyan 6.8, wanda ya fi muni fiye da na 1997. Akasin haka, Labour ya samu miliyan 9.7. Kamar yadda aka nuna a Figure 1, tare da 42.5 kashi fiye da kuri'u fiye da Tories, Labour ya samu 411 kujeru - 3.4 sau. Reform ya samu kuri'u miliyan 4.1, wato kashi 60 cikin dari na kuri'u, amma kujeru biyar kawai. Na karshen ya lashe kujeru 24 da yawa (121). A halin da ake ciki, jam'iyyar Liberal Democrats, wadda ta samu kasa da kuri'u 600,000 fiye da Reform, ta lashe kujeru 14 da yawa (72).
Idan za a iya ce, yawan kuri'un da ake bukata don samun kujera daya ya kasance 23,600 na Labour, 56,400 na Conservatives, 49,300 na LibDems, 78,800 na Jam'iyyar Scotland ta Kasa - da 821,000 don Gyarawa (Hoto na 2). Ba don komai ba ne aka bayyana wannan a matsayin mafi gurbataccen sakamako a tarihin Birtaniyya.
Amma jira, yana kara muni. Wannan ya sanya izgili ga tsarin halalta tsarin mulkin dimokuradiyya na tsakiya, wato kuri'ar mutum daya. Domin a aikace, wannan yana aiki kamar yadda masu jefa ƙuri'a 35 na sake fasalin sun cancanci nauyin mai jefa ƙuri'a ɗaya kawai. Ba abin mamaki ba, Nigel Farage ya sha alwashin yakin neman kawo karshen tsarin farko-bayan-da-post kuma musanya shi da nau'i na wakilcin daidaito.
Shekarun Fari na Mulkin Tory
A cikin shekaru goma sha huɗu na jin daɗin tarko da fa'idar mulki, Tories sun rasa ma'anarsu ta hanyar tafiyar da falsafar, jajircewarsu na haraji da horon kashe kuɗi na jama'a a cikin manufofin tattalin arziki, ƙwarewarsu wajen tafiyar da al'amuran ƙasa, da fahimtarsu na ladabi a cikin yaƙe-yaƙe na al'adu. Ƙoƙarin zama kowane abu ga duk masu jefa ƙuri'a, sun ƙare sun tsaya a banza kuma sun fadi ga komai. Masu sassaucin ra'ayi na tattalin arziki da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, Brexiteers da Remainers, matasa da tsofaffi, maza da mata, 'yancin ɗan adam da ƙungiyoyin doka da oda: duk sun fidda rai kuma sun gudu daga Tories.
Dukkanin shugabannin Tory guda uku tun bayan nasarar da suka samu na kujeru 80 shekaru biyar da suka gabata - Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak - sun tabbatar da ka'idar Peter cewa mutane sun tashi zuwa matakin gazawar su. Manufofin su na Covid sun yaudari ainihin ka'idodin ra'ayin mazan jiya don haɓaka haɓakar ikon mulkin ƙasa da ɓarna, ɓarna, rashin cancanta, da kashe kuɗi. Nasu tarihin a cikin gwamnati ya hana su mayar da mafi munin ilhami na Labour akan manufofin annoba zuwa batun zabe.
Gyaran baya ya cika ramin da Tories suka haifar da motsi hagu. Ya samu kujeru biyar kacal amma ya zo na biyu a cikin wani 98 - ba mummuna ba ga siyasa kwatankwacin farawar garejin da jiga-jigan kafa suka yi watsi da girman kai a matsayin babbar jam'iyyar da ke karkashin jagorancin wariyar launin fata. An samu wannan gagarumin abin al'ajabi a cikin wata guda, ba tare da wata kafa ko tallafi ba, kuma abin mamaki ya kama shi da farkon lokacin zaben, ba tare da tantance kwararrun 'yan takara ba kafin zaben. Tattakin nasu ya bayyana musamman wajen keta katangar jan bangon Tories wanda ke da mahimmanci don gina masu rinjaye na dama.
Wani abu game da siyasar populist wanda masu jefa ƙuri'a na yammacin Turai ke juya zuwa shi ne cewa tauraruwarta sun zo da launuka na farko: Donald Trump a Amurka, Marine Le Pen a Faransa, Giorgia Meloni a Italiya, Pierre Poilievre a Kanada, Viktor Orban a Hungary, Narendra Modi a Indiya, Javier Milei a Argentina, Tony Abbott a Australia. Abin da ake ba masu jefa ƙuri'a amma suna ƙara ƙin yarda su ne shugabanni a cikin inuwa hamsin na pastel, wanda Sunak ya kasance ɗaya amma kuma Starmer.
A ciki akwai haɗari a gare shi da kuma fata ga masu ra'ayin mazan jiya. A cikin 'yan adawa, Starmer ya iya guje wa yin kira mai tsauri, ya canza matsayinsa kan akidar jinsi daidai da iskoki masu canzawa, da wuya ya ɓace fiye da cliches, kuma ya shiga cikin iko a bayan fushin populist a kan Tories. Ya daina jin daɗin guje wa zaɓe masu wahala kan manufofin tattalin arziki, zamantakewa, da muhalli waɗanda za su fusata ƙungiyoyi kan asarar ƙarshen yanke shawara.
Har ila yau, jam'iyyar Greens da kuri'un Musulmi za su yi takara da Starmer. Zaben ya haifar da haihuwar wani siyasar Musulunci a fili tana girgiza zuwa rikicin waje. Gaskiya ne, George Galloway ya kasa rike Rochdale wanda ya lashe 'yan watannin da suka gabata. Amma 'yan takara masu zaman kansu masu goyon bayan Gaza da suka yi nasara sun hada da tsohon shugaban jam'iyyar Labour Corbyn, Ayoub Khan, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed, da Shockat Adam. Kujeru da yawa ke nan kamar Reform. Wata kuma Leanne Mohamad ta sha kaye da kuri'u 528 kacal. Bayan da suka yi nonon Labour zuwa iyakarsu, a shirye suke su cinye ma’aikata da kuma bugu da kan su domin cimma manufarsu ta bangaranci da ba ta da tushe daga al’adu da al’adun Burtaniya. Bayan shuka iskar bangaran addini da aka shigo da ita, Labour na iya girbi guguwa.
A halin da ake ciki a Ostiraliya, kamar sauran 'yan uwanta Musulmai a Biritaniya, 'yar asalin Afganistan, Fatima Payman, ta shiga majalisar dattijai a matsayin 'yar shekara 27 da ba a san ta ba a kuri'ar jam'iyyar Labour kawai. Zabar mata akayi daban-daban ya kasance kawai 1,681 ko kashi 0.1 kuma ga Jam'iyyar Labour, ya kasance 527,319 ko 34.5 bisa dari na kuri'un Yammacin Ostiraliya. Amma duk da haka a yanzu tana yiwa jam'iyyar da ke da alhakin shigar da ita siyasar kasa. Za ta iya zama jigon kafa jam'iyya mai tushe ta addini da ta himmatu wajen shigo da rikice-rikicen kasashen waje cikin siyasar cikin gida ta Ostireliya.
A Kanada ma an yi ta tonon sililin yadda siyasar ƙasashen waje ke lalata shugabanci nagari. Harjit Sajjan, dan majalisar Sikh wanda ya yi aiki a cikin sojojin Kanada, shi ne ministan tsaro lokacin da shigar kasashen Yamma a Afganistan ya zo karshe a watan Agustan 2021. Abin mamaki, a cikin waɗancan kwanaki masu ruɗani a ƙarshen, sojojin Kanada sun miƙe a ƙoƙarin ceto 'yan Kanada da 'yan Afghanistan waɗanda suka yi aiki tare da su, Sajjan ya umarce su da su ba da fifiko ga Sikh225. The abin kunya yana dusar ƙanƙara tun da Globe kuma Mail karya da story a kan 27 Yuni.
Matsalar Conservatives: Mallake Cibiyar Siyasa ko Taka Dama ko Hagu?
A wannan muhimmin lokaci a tarihi, da alama yawancin ƙasashen yammacin duniya suna komawa ga ra'ayin mazan jiya. A bangaren dama, jam'iyyun masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na fuskantar matsala iri daya a Burtaniya kamar na Australia. Shin suna komawa zuwa haƙƙin haƙƙin ƙetare Gyara; ƙara ƙara zuwa tsakiya-hagu domin yaye kuri'u daga LibDems; ko ƙoƙarin yin duka biyu ga masu sauraro daban-daban kuma ku rasa duk abin da ya rage? Don samun nasarar dawo da mulki, dole ne su fara cin nasarar hujjar don wartsake da farfado da ra'ayoyin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya. Don yin haka, dole ne su sake gano ainihin dabi'u, bayyana madaidaicin hangen nesa, fitar da masu sana'a ba tare da yanke hukunci ba, kuma su zaɓi jagora mai ƙwarin gwiwa wanda zai iya bayyana dabi'u, dalilin da ya sa suke da mahimmanci, da kuma yadda za a cimma su cikin tsarin tsarin jam'iyyar.
Bayan wani batu, yunƙurin gamsar da masu jefa ƙuri'a 'masu matsakaici' ta hanyar mayar da jam'iyyar zuwa tsakiya sun rasa kuri'u a tsakanin masu aminci fiye da yadda suke samu a tsakanin masu zaman kansu. Ingantacciyar dabarar cin nasara ita ce ƙoƙarin karkatar da cibiyar zuwa jam'iyya ta hanyar shiga tsakani cikin gwagwarmayar ra'ayoyi da manufofi dangane da gudanar da tattalin arziki, ƙimar al'adu, lambobin shige da fice, da Net Zero. Kuma ku yi ƙoƙari ku mallaki wuri mai dadi tsakanin farashi da fa'idodi a cikin gajeren lokaci da dogon lokaci.
Dangane da cewa Ma'aikata da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na Burtaniya sun ɗan bambanta bayyanar jam'iyyar - wanda aka fi sani da kunci guda biyu na jaki - sakamakon rashin amincewa da duk masu mulki fiye da nasarar Labour akan Tories. Fata da kyakkyawan fata na shekaru biyar da suka gabata sun ba da damar yin fusata kan tabarbarewar kiwon lafiya, zamantakewa, da ababen more rayuwa, da kuma asarar amincewar al'umma a cikin cibiyoyin gwamnati da kuma wasu jiga-jigan siyasa da aka raina suna gasa don tafiyar da koma bayan kasa maimakon dubawa da sake dawo da shi. Muna cikin koshin lafiya da gaske muna cikin zamanin rashin jin daɗin siyasa, raunana ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan jam’iyyun gargajiya, da haɓaka sauye-sauyen siyasa.
Ba kamar Labour da Conservatives, gyara ba ya fama da rashin kishi. Sabanin haka. Tun daga wannan lokacin, ɓangarorin tsarin zaɓe na farko-farko na iya yin aiki ga fa'idarsa. A matsakaita, kowane kashi ɗaya cikin 100 na ƙuri'un da aka canza daga Labour zuwa Gyarawa zai haifar da rashin daidaituwar adadin ribar kujeru ga na ƙarshe. An analysis da tangarahu ya nuna cewa a cikin kujeru 98 da Reform ya zo na biyu, yaye kuri'u 340,000 daga jam'iyyar da ta yi nasara ka iya sanya ta a gaban Tories da kuma jefa ta cikin 'yan adawa a hukumance.
Nasarar da Farage ya samu ta hanyar watsa labarai na iya zama mai canza wasa a siyasar Burtaniya. Mun shaida 'a karo na tarihi tsakanin gwamnatin fasaha da halaccin siyasa,' John Gray ya rubuta a cikin New dattaku. Farage, fiye da kowane shugaba, yana kama masu kishin wannan gwagwarmaya ta titin, tare da yin alkawalin korar ɓangarorin jama'a tare da maido da aikin da ba a taɓa gani ba na mulki daga masu fasaha zuwa gwamnati. Tare da hangen nesa Thatcherite na tattalin arzikin kasuwa mai 'yanci tare da yanayin jindadin baya mai rauni, rage nauyin haraji, rage tsarin mulki, da kuma sake fasalin sabis na kiwon lafiya na ƙasa, Farage yana da kyakkyawan matsayi don jujjuya-injiniya mai ɗaukar ikon Burtaniya daga cikin Westminster.
Ya kamata ajandar manufofin su himmatu wajen maido da yanke shawara mai cikakken iko, raguwar gwamnati, ƙarfafa 'yancin faɗar albarkacin baki, rage shige da fice, da rage girman ƙasar. Gyara zai iya yin hakan cikin gaskiya fiye da abin da ake zargi da ba'a bayan shekaru goma sha huɗu. Tare da kafuwar gada mai kujeru biyar a majalisar dokoki, ginawa akan bayanan masu jefa ƙuri'a, masu fafutuka, da masu sa kai da aka ƙirƙira da gogewar da aka samu a lokacin yaƙin neman zaɓe na 2024, jam'iyyar za ta iya ƙaddamar da albarkatu cikin tsari lokaci na gaba don canza yawancin da ke kusa da bata cikin nasara.
A guntun sigar An buga wannan a cikin Mai kallo Ostiraliya mujallar a ranar 13 ga Yuli.
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Ramesh Thakur, Babban Babban Masanin Cibiyar Brownstone, tsohon Mataimakin Sakatare-Janar na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ne, kuma farfesa na farko a Makarantar Siyasa ta Crawford, Jami'ar Kasa ta Australiya.
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