A cikin makonnin karshe na yakin neman zabe, Donald Trump yana yankewa da rage harajin kudin shiga na Tarayya da sauri kamar yadda ya yi hidimar soya a tagar motar McDonald a karshen makon da ya gabata. Ya zuwa yanzu, ya ba da shawarar tsawaita ƙananan rates, ƙididdiga na harajin iyali, da abubuwan ƙarfafa hannun jari na Dokar Harajin 2017 bayan sun ƙare a 2025 da kuma keɓance tukwici, fa'idodin Tsaron Jama'a, da ƙarin albashi daga harajin shiga na Tarayya.
Wadannan abubuwa kadai za su haifar da asarar kudaden shiga na dala tiriliyan 9 a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, amma kwanan nan ya ba da shawarar cire masu kashe gobara, jami'an 'yan sanda, jami'an soji, da kuma tsoffin sojoji daga harajin samun kudin shiga na Tarayya.
Mun kiyasta karshen zai ci wani dala tiriliyan 2.5 a asarar kudaden shiga sama da shekaru 10. Kamar yadda ya faru, akwai 'yan kashe gobara 370,000, 'yan sanda 708,000, jami'an soji miliyan 2.86 masu sanye da kayan aiki, da kuma tsoffin sojoji miliyan 18.0 a Amurka. Waɗannan 'yan ƙasa miliyan 22 suna da matsakaicin matsakaicin kudin shiga na $82,000 a kowace shekara, wanda ke fassara zuwa kusan $60,000 kowane na AGI (daidaitaccen babban kudin shiga). A matsakaicin adadin harajin kuɗin shiga na kashi 14.7% waɗannan keɓancewar za su samar da dala biliyan 250 a kowace shekara na rage biyan harajin kuɗin shiga.
Gabaɗaya, Trump ya yi watsi da alkawuran rage harajin kuɗin shiga da dala tiriliyan 11.5 a cikin tagar kasafin kuɗi na shekaru 10 masu zuwa. Bi da bi, waɗannan ragi mai yawa zai kai sama da kashi 34 cikin 33.7 na ƙimar harajin kuɗin shiga na CBO na dala tiriliyan 1913 a tsawon lokacin. Alas, har ma a cikin kwanakin halcyon na Reagan harajin harajin haraji ba wanda ya yi mafarkin kawar da kashi ɗaya bisa uku na laifin da ake kira na 16 (gyara na XNUMXth wanda ya ba da harajin shiga).
Asarar Harajin Shekara 10:
- Tsawaita rage harajin Trump na 2017: $ 5.350 tiriliyan.
- Keɓancewar kuɗin shiga kan lokaci: $2.000 tiriliyan.
- Ƙarshen Harajin Amfanin Tsaron Jama'a: $1.300 tiriliyan.
- Keɓancewar Tip samun kudin shiga: $300 biliyan.
- Keɓancewar Kudin shiga na ƴan kashe gobara, ƴan sanda, sojoji da tsoffin sojoji: $2.500 tiriliyan.
- Jimlar asarar Harajin Trump: $11.500 tiriliyan.
- Tushen Harajin Harajin Shiga na CBO: $33.700 tiriliyan.
- Asarar Harajin Trump A Matsayin % na Baseline: 34%.
Sa'an nan kuma, Trump na iya samun wani abu kusan almara a zuciya. Don haka, soke harajin kuɗin shiga gaba ɗaya don goyon bayan amfani da haraji ta hanyar haraji kan kaya da hajoji da ake shigowa da su.
"A zamanin da muke da wayo, lokacin da muke kasa mai hankali, a cikin shekarun 1890 kuma duk, wannan shine lokacin da kasar ta kasance mafi yawan arziki da ta kasance. Tana da dukkan kudaden haraji. Ba ta da harajin kudin shiga," in ji Trump a wani zama tare da masu jefa kuri'a a New York ranar Juma'a. Fox & Abokai.
"Yanzu muna da harajin shiga, kuma muna da mutanen da ke mutuwa."
The New York Times yana da zurfi firgita: "Tsohon shugaban kasar ya sha yabo wani lokaci a tarihin Amurka lokacin da babu harajin kudin shiga, kuma kasar ta dogara da harajin haraji don tallafawa gwamnati."
A zahiri, duk da haka, Amurka ta ƙarni na 19 ta fi wayo fiye da yadda Trump ya fahimta. A cikin 1900 jimillar kashe kuɗin tarayya ya kai kashi 3.5 cikin ɗari na GDP saboda a lokacin Amurka har yanzu jamhuriya ce mai zaman lafiya kuma ba ta da Jihar Yaƙi ko ma dakaru masu tsayi kwata-kwata. Kuma idan aka yi la'akari da mafi ci gaban yankuna na Turai, Jihar jindaɗi ba a ƙirƙira ba tukuna.
Don haka, a, abin da ake kira "kudiddigar haraji" na karni na 19 ya biya bukatun kudin shiga na Gwamnatin Tarayya har zuwa ainihin daidaita kasafin kudi a kowace shekara tsakanin 1870 da 1900. Lallai, ainihin ragi na shekara-shekara ya isa ya biya mafi yawan bashin yakin basasa, don tayarwa.
A yau, ba shakka, Jihar Warfare, Jihar Jin Dadi, da gandun naman alade na Washington suna da kashi 25% na GDP. Don haka Trump na iya zama daidai wajen son biyan haraji maimakon samun kudin shiga, amma, kamar yadda ya saba, ya kashe kusan umarni bakwai idan ya zo ga girman kasafin kudin Tarayyar da ya kamata a ba shi.
Duk da haka, Trump ya hau kan karagar mulki idan aka zo batun harajin kudaden shiga na karni na 21. Ya yi alkawarin sanya harajin kashi 20 cikin 60 na duk kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga dukkan kasashen da ke da takamaiman kashi 3.5% na kayayyakin da kasar Sin ke shigo da su. Dangane da matakan shigo da dalar Amurka tiriliyan 450 a kowace shekara daga kafofin duniya da dala biliyan 900 daga China, harajin Trump zai samar da kusan dala biliyan XNUMX na rasit a shekara.
Tabbas, da'awar Trump na cewa 'yan China, 'yan Mexico, da masu ra'ayin gurguzu na Turai ne za su biya wadannan katafaren haraji. Masu siye ne ke biyan kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen kuɗi,amma wannan shine ainihin ɓoyayyun kyawawan halaye na kalmar da aka fi so na Tariff Man.
Gaskiyar ita ce, ya kamata a biya gwamnati ta hanyar haraji a kan ’yan kasa na yanzu, ba wai a kashe su ta hanyar manyan basussuka ga ’yan kasa na gaba ba, haifaffen da ba a haifa ba. Don haka idan za mu sami Babban Gwamnati a kashi 25% na GDP maimakon gwamnatin karni na 19 a kashi 3.5% na GDP, kuma Trump babban mutum ne na gwamnati idan har an taba samun daya, zai fi kyau a sanya nauyin a kan amfani, ba samarwa, samun kudin shiga, da saka hannun jari ba.
Bayan haka, a yau “masu yi” suna samun nasara sosai ta hanyar tsarin harajin kuɗin shiga da ya yi nisa sosai. Don haka, kashi 1% na sama na biyan kashi 46% na harajin shiga, yayin da na sama na 5% ke biyan kashi 66% sannan kashi 10 na sama na biyan kashi 76% na duk harajin shiga. A gefe guda kuma, kashi 50 cikin 2.3 na ƙasa yana biyan kashi 40 ne kawai na harajin samun kuɗin shiga na kowane mutum, yayin da kashi XNUMX% na duk iyalai ba sa biyan harajin kuɗin shiga kwata-kwata.
A kowane hali, lissafin yana aiki kamar yadda jadawalin kuɗin shiga na Trumpian zai samar da kusan dala tiriliyan 9 a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, ko kusan kashi 80% na asarar kudaden shiga na dala tiriliyan 11.5 daga raguwar ɗaukar harajin shiga da adadin tarawa. Don haka wannan babban mataki ne na alkiblar kasafin kuɗi maimakon ƙarin abincin rana na UniParty kyauta.
Tabbas, yadda ya kamata a sake fasalin manufofin haraji na Tarayya zai zama harajin tallace-tallace na ƙasa ko harajin VAT, wanda za'a iya amfani da shi a kan kayayyaki da sabis da kayan sarrafawa na cikin gida da kuma shigo da kaya. Don haka, VAT 5% akan dala tiriliyan 20 na yanzu a kowace shekara na jimlar PCE (kashewar amfani da mutum) zai haifar da daidai da jadawalin kuɗin shiga na Trump, yayin da harajin 15% akan jimlar PCE zai iya maye gurbin duka kuɗin fito na Trump da sauran harajin samun kudin shiga gaba ɗaya.
Duk da gazawarsa, duk da haka, jadawalin kuɗin shiga ya daɗe da farawa ta hanyar da ta dace. Matsayin ƙarfin hali na Trump na goyon bayan amfani da haraji maimakon samun kudin shiga da kuma buƙatar duk gidaje su ɗauki nauyin gwamnati, ba kawai ƙananan adadin masu samarwa a saman matakan tattalin arziki ba, a fili ya fi matsayi.
Duk da haka, wannan babban canji a cikin abun da ke ciki da kuma abubuwan da suka faru na manufofin haraji ba su da gaske ya sa bala'in kasafin kuɗi da ke gabatowa ya kwanta. Ba da dogon harbi ba.
Idan kun ɗauka cewa babban harajin kuɗin shiga na Trump da raguwar harajin kuɗin shiga da sauran kuɗin biyan haraji na Tarayya, kamfanoni, da harajin kuɗaɗe iri ɗaya ne, kudaden shiga na shekaru 10 suna ƙididdige kusan dala tiriliyan 60 tare da kashe dala tiriliyan 85 a kowane tushen CBO. A takaice, ko da wani katafaren sigar Trumpified na harajin kudaden shiga na tarihi, shirin kasafin kudi na Trump zai samar da dala tiriliyan 25 na jan tawada a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa.
Hankalin Kasafin Kudi na Shekara 10 tare da Rage Harajin Trump da Tariffs, 2025 zuwa 2034:
- Harajin kuɗin shiga ɗaya ɗaya tare da rage Trump: $ 22.0 tiriliyan.
- Tariffs na Harajin Trump: $ 9.0 tiriliyan.
- Harajin Biyan Kuɗi: $20.9 tiriliyan.
- Rage Harajin Kamfani Mai Ci Gaban Tsohon Trump zuwa 15% akan Masu Kera: $4.6 tiriliyan.
- Sauran Rasidun Tarayyar Tarayya: $3.5 tiriliyan.
- Jimlar Harajin Tarayyar Tarayya Karkashin Manufar Trump: $60.0 tiriliyan.
- CBO Tushen Ƙididdigar Tarayya: Dala tiriliyan 85.0.
- Rawar Trump na Shekara 10: $25.0 tiriliyan.
Tabbas, Trump ya yi alƙawarin mayar da Elon Musk a kan yaƙin neman zaɓe na yaƙi da sharar gida da rashin aiki na gwamnati, kuma mun ce masa ƙarin iko. Idan kowa yana da ƙarfin hali da wayo don ɗaukar Swamp, tabbas Elon Musk yana kan saman jerin.
Sa'an nan kuma, Trump ya yi alkawarin kare kashi 82% na kasafin kudin daga duk wani ragi kwata-kwata. Haka ne. Elon zai iya huff da ƙwanƙwasa da rage shirye-shiryen da hukumomin da ba a keɓance su ba da kashi ɗaya bisa uku kuma har yanzu ya bar gibin da ya haura dala tiriliyan 20 a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa.
Tsawon Shekaru 10 Na Shirye-shiryen Trump Ya Zama, Yayi Alkawarin Ba Zai Yanke Ko Ba Zai Iya Yankewa ba:
- Tsaron Jama'a: $20.0 tiriliyan.
- Medicare: $16.0 tiriliyan.
- Fansho na Sojojin Tarayya da na Farar Hula: $2.5 tiriliyan.
- Shirye-shiryen tsoffin sojoji: $3.0 tiriliyan.
- Kasafin Kudin Tsaron Kasa: Dala Tiriliyan 15.5.
- Riba Kan Bashin Jama'a: $13.0 tiriliyan.
- Jimlar Shirye-shiryen Keɓancewa: $70.0 tiriliyan.
- Shirye-shiryen Keɓance Kamar% na $85 tiriliyan CBO Tushen: 82%.
A takaice, ko da tare da cikakken kuɗin shiga na Trump da kuma ɗauka cewa Elon na iya haƙiƙa ya kashe kashi 33% na kasafin kuɗin da ba a keɓe ba ba tare da rufe abin tunawa da Washington ba, lissafin lissafin ƙasa yana barin kaɗan ga hasashe. Kashewa a dala tiriliyan 80 zai kai kashi 22.7% na GDP, yayin da kunshin harajin haraji mai nauyi na Trump zai samar da dala tiriliyan 60 na kudaden tarayya a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 17.0% na GDP.
Hakanan, hakan zai bar gibin tsarin kusan kashi 6% na GDP gwargwadon abin da ido zai iya gani. Kuma wannan hasashen ba zai sake ɗaukar koma bayan tattalin arziki ba kuma wannan sha'awar kan bashin jama'a da ke kusantar dala tiriliyan 60 nan da 2034 zai yi matsakaicin kashi 3.3% a cikin balagagge.
Za mu dauki unders a kan wannan shawara kowace rana ta mako da sau biyu a ranar Lahadi. Wato, hasashen CBO na dala tiriliyan 1.7 na kudin ruwa na shekara-shekara nan da 2034 yana yiwuwa a yi kasala da tiriliyan da yawa. A kowace shekara.
A kowane hali, ƙalubalen bayar da kuɗin waɗannan manyan gibin tare da dala biliyan 900 a kowace shekara na harajin Trump zai yi yawa. Ƙarshen shi kaɗai zai kai kusan kashi 10% na yawan amfanin Amurka na kayan masarufi da ƙayyadaddun kayan saka hannun jari.
Don haka idan Fed zai “kwance” waɗannan manyan harajin Trump ta hanyar tafiyar da injinan buga ja-ja-jaja a cikin yunƙurin rama ikon siyan gida da ya ɓace, zai iya haifar da fashewar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki har ma da muni fiye da na 2021-2024.
A gefe guda, idan aka bi daidaitaccen tsarin kuɗin kuɗi daidai kuma ƙin “kwance” duka manyan gibin Trump da manyan kuɗin fito na Trump, yawan kuɗin da ake samu, da ƙimar riba za su yi hauhawa, kamar yadda tattalin arzikin Babban titin ya yi ƙulli sosai a cikin martani ga karuwar 10% sau ɗaya a matakin farashin gabaɗaya.
Bayar da gibin kasafin kuɗi mai yawa da gaske a cikin ramukan haɗin gwiwa maimakon a bugu na Fed zai kuma buɗe uwar duk wani abin da ya ruguje a cikin kasuwannin hada-hadar kuɗi na yau da kullun. Don haka Trump zai sami jadawalin kuɗin fito da wasu ɗimbin ƙima na samar da masana'antu, amma har ma da koma bayan gashi a kan Main Street da Bronx Cheer daga rafukan Wall Street.
Abin takaici, wannan shine farashin da Amurka za ta biya ko da a ƙarƙashin tattalin arzikin Trump don kawar da barna na shekarun da suka gabata na kashe kuɗi, aro, da manufofin buga UniParty.
Duk da haka, a zahiri muna iya tunanin wani yanayi mafi muni. Don sanin, dawwamar matsayin UniParty, wanda shine abin da za mu samu daga jam'iyyar da ke mulki ta Washington wanda ya maye gurbin rashin hankali a Ofishin Oval tare da komai a kan tikitin shugaban kasa na Demokradiyya.
Wani sigar wannan yanki ya bayyana akan marubucin site.
-
David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
Duba dukkan posts
