A cikin Oktoba 2020, tare da Farfesa Sunetra Gupta, mun rubuta littafin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington, wanda a cikinsa muka yi jayayya don dabarun 'kariyar da aka mayar da hankali'. Mun yi kira da a kara ba da kariya ga manya da sauran masu fama da wannan matsala, yayin da muke jayayya cewa a bar yara zuwa makaranta, kuma matasa su kasance masu 'yanci su ci gaba da rayuwa. Mun fahimci cewa zai iya haifar da zazzafar tattaunawa, amma ba mu yi tsammanin za a yi yaƙin farfaganda mai ɓangarori dabam-dabam da ya gurɓata gardamarmu da bata mana rai ba. Mu ne kawai masana kimiyyar kiwon lafiyar jama'a guda uku, bayan haka. To ta yaya kuma me ya sa wannan mummunan harin martani ya fito?
A cikin littafinsa na baya-bayan nan. karu, Jeremy Farrar - memba na SAGE kuma darektan Wellcome Trust - ya ba da taimako mai taimako: masanin siyasa da babban mashawarcin Firayim Minista, Dominic Cummings, ya shirya yakin farfaganda a kan Babban Barrington Declaration. Haƙiƙanin kalmomin Farrar shine Cummings 'yana son gudanar da kamfen ɗin 'yan jaridu masu muni a kan waɗanda ke bayan Babban Sanarwar Barrington da sauran waɗanda ke adawa da hani na Covid-19'. Cummings da Farrar sun gwammace dabarun kulle bargo, suna ganin hakan zai guje wa igiyar ruwa ta Covid. Ba mu san abin da ya faru a bayan rufaffiyar kofofin ba, amma shigar da Farrar ya haifar da tambayoyi biyu masu ban sha'awa.
Na farko, wa za ku yi tsammanin yin nasara a yaƙin siyasa kan wace dabarar annoba za ku aiwatar? Shin zai kasance (a) mai shirya yakin neman zabe wanda ya ci zabe da kuri'un raba gardama, ko (b) masana kimiyyar kiwon lafiyar jama'a uku wadanda basu da karancin aikin yada labarai da gogewar siyasa? Na biyu, shawarar wane ne zai fi dacewa ya shawo kan cutar, rage yawan mutuwar Covid da kuma guje wa wasu illolin da ba na COVID-19 ba? Shin zai kasance (a) yaƙin neman zaɓe wanda mutumin da ba shi da masaniya game da cututtukan cututtuka da lafiyar jama'a ke jagoranta? Ko (b) wanda ƙwararrun ƙwararrun cututtuka guda uku suka rubuta tare da gogewa da masaniya game da cututtuka masu yaduwa da lafiyar jama'a?
Kamar yadda muka sani yanzu, Cummings da Farrar sun sami hanyarsu a Burtaniya. Mu Mawallafin Sanarwa na Babban Barrington mun kasa murƙushe kowane ɗan siyasa, in ban da gwamnan Florida Ron DeSantis. Gwamnatoci a duk duniya sun sake sanya dokar hana fita a cikin kaka da hunturu na 2020. The lockdowns' kasa shawo kan yaduwar Covid ya kasance bala'i. Kuma sun haifar da mummunan lahani na haɗin gwiwa, musamman ga yara, da aji aji a cikin kasashe masu arziki da kuma mafi talauci mutane a cikin kasashe masu tasowa.
Ko Cummings ne ya jagorance shi ko a'a, tabbas an yi wani kamfen na kafofin watsa labarai mai tsauri akan Babban Sanarwar Barrington. Kamfen ɗin farfaganda ya haɗa da murdiya da yawa, rashin fahimta, ad hominem hare-hare da kai tsaye ƙiren ƙarya. Yawancin waɗannan ɓangarorin har yanzu suna yin zagaye a cikin manyan kafofin watsa labarai. ’Yan jaridan da, bisa ga dukkan alamu, ba su ma karanta sanarwar ba, sun tabbatar da qarya game da ita da mu a buga, a rediyo, a talabijin da kuma kan layi. Ga kadan daga cikin karairayi da murdiya:
Fitattun 'yan siyasa kamar Matt Hancock, kafofin watsa labarai da jami'an kiwon lafiya a cikin WHO da gwamnatin Burtaniya sun sake fasalin kariyar mai da hankali - manufofin da aka tsara don kare mafi rauni daga kamuwa da cutar ta Covid - a matsayin 'dabarun bar-it-rip' wanda zai 'bari kwayar cutar ta ci gaba ba tare da tantancewa ba'. Babban Sanarwar Barrington ya yi kira da akasin dabarar bari-shi-rip. Abin ban mamaki, kulle-kulle haƙiƙa dabara ce ta sannu a hankali bari-it-rip - yana jinkirta yaduwar Covid, kamar yadda muka koya cikin nadama cikin watanni 18 da suka gabata.
Hancock, Anthony Fauci, Jeremy Farrar da fitattun 'yan jarida suma sun ɓata sanarwar Babban Barrington a matsayin 'dabarun rigakafin garken', ko da yake kowace dabara za ta haifar da rigakafin garken garken ba dade ko ba jima. Eh, sanarwar ta tattauna rigakafin garken garken. Ba zai zama rashin nauyi ba a yi watsi da irin wannan ainihin gaskiyar halitta. Amma fayyace sanarwar Babban Barrington a matsayin 'dabarun rigakafin garken garken' kamar kwatanta shirin matukin jirgi na saukar jirgin a matsayin 'dabarun nauyi'. Burin matukin jirgin shi ne ya sauka da jirgin cikin aminci yayin sarrafa karfin nauyi. Manufar kowane shirin cutar ta Covid ya kamata ya zama rage yawan mace-macen cututtuka da illolin da ke tattare da shirin da kansa, yayin da ake sarrafa haɓakar rigakafi a cikin jama'a. Abin mamaki, wasu 'yan siyasa, 'yan jarida har ma da masana kimiyya ya musanta samuwar garkuwar garken garken. Wasu ma sun yi shakkar samuwar rigakafi na halitta daga Covid, wanda yake kama da hana nauyi.
Hancock da masana kimiyya daban-daban an sallami ra'ayi na mayar da hankali kariya. Wasu sun yi da'awar cewa ba shi yiwuwa a kare tsofaffi masu haɗari musamman. Wasu kuma sun yi iƙirarin cewa ba mu bayar da takamaiman shawarwari don yin hakan ba. A gaskiya, mun ba da wasu shawarwari a kan sanarwar mai shafi ɗaya, kuma mun ba da a jerin dogon lokaci na ingantattun matakan kiwon lafiyar jama'a da aka gwada a cikin FAQ mai rakiyar akan gidan yanar gizon. Mun kuma rubuta labaran jaridu da dama, inda muka yi karin bayani kan wadannan ra’ayoyin. Ana iya fahimtar cewa ɗan siyasa kamar Matt Hancock, tare da ƙarancin iliminsa na lafiyar jama'a, ba zai iya samar da dabaru don kare tsofaffi ba. Amma mun yi fatan Babban Sanarwar Barrington za ta haifar da himma da tunani mai zurfi game da yadda za mu iya yin hakan, maimakon farfaganda kawai.
Kazalika da bata ra'ayinmu, masu sukar mu kuma suna batar da mu a matsayin mutane. Wasu 'yan jarida sun yi ƙoƙari su yi mana fenti a matsayin ƴan ƴancin yanci masu alaƙa da ƴan uwan Koch. Waɗannan ƙarya ne bayyananne ad hominem smears yana tunawa da zamanin McCarthy. Hakanan suna da ban tsoro tunda ɗayan tushen tallafin Koch da aka bayar ba da tallafi zuwa masanin kimiyyar hana kulle-kulle Neil Ferguson da tawagarsa a Kwalejin Imperial. Gaskiyar ita ce, mu ukun ne muka rubuta Babban Sanarwar Barrington ba tare da wani tallafi na farko ba.
Manufar farfagandar ita ce kawar da hankalin jama'a daga gaskiyar cewa, sabanin kulle-kulle, an kafa Babban Sanarwar Barrington dadewa da ka'idojin kiwon lafiyar jama'a. Abin takaici, Burtaniya ta ci gaba da dabarun kulle-kullenta, ta kulle kaka da hunturu. Kamar yadda muka sani yanzu, kulle-kullen ya kasa kare masu rauni, maimakon haka ya fallasa su ga kwayar cutar tare da haifar da mutuwar mutane da yawa. Ya zuwa yanzu, Burtaniya ta ba da rahoton mutuwar mutane kusan 130,000 na Covid - kusan 90,000 daga cikinsu sun mutu bayan da muka rubuta sanarwar da ke neman wata hanya ta daban.
Don tseratar da fuska, Cummings da sauransu sun yi abin ban dariya, da'awar da ba ta da hujja cewa da a ce Ingila ta shiga cikin kulle-kulle tun da farko, da yawa daga cikin wadannan mutuwar za a iya guje wa. Amma mun san cewa Wales ta aiwatar da wani "mai karya garkuwar jiki" (lalacewar kulle-kulle) a cikin Oktoba 2020 - makonni biyu kafin Ingila ta shiga cikin kulle-kulle na Nuwamba. Sakamakon? A cikin gajeren gudu, Wales ta fito daga kulle-kulle tare da ƙarin shari'o'in Covid yau da kullun fiye da lokacin da ta fara kuma tare da ƙarin shari'o'in kowane mutum fiye da na Ingila. A cikin dogon lokaci? Daga farkon barkewar cutar har zuwa ranar da muka sanya hannu kan Babban Sanarwar Barrington, a ranar 4 ga Oktoba, 2020, mutuwar Covid ta Ingila kan kowane mutum ya fi na Wales sama da kashi 29 cikin ɗari. Amma daga Oktoba zuwa karshen Yuli 2021, mutuwar Covid ta Ingila ga kowane mutum ya fi Wales sama da kashi tara kawai. Wato babu prima facie shaida a cikin waɗannan lambobin cewa kulle-kulle a baya ya ceci kowane rayuka a Wales.
Idan muka kalli ko'ina cikin kandami a Amurka, zamu iya kwatanta martanin kowace jiha game da cutar. Matsakaicin adadin mace-mace na Covid-38 na Amurka gaba ɗaya ya kai kashi 49,000 cikin ɗari sama da na Florida, wanda ya ɗauki hanyar kariya. Da tsammanin za mu iya samun raguwar adadin adadin mace-mace a Burtaniya, da wataƙila mun sami ƙarancin mutuwar Covid XNUMX. Ainihin lambar na iya zama babba ko ƙarami, ba shakka. Amma kuma, babu prima facie shaida cewa kulle-kulle sun rage mutuwar Covid na dogon lokaci.
Kazalika gazawar kare mu daga Covid, kulle-kullen ya haifar da babbar illa ga lafiyar jama'a. A cikin Burtaniya, wannan ya haɗa da rasa gwajin cutar kansa da magani, jinkirin tiyata, cututtukan zuciya da ciwon sukari marasa magani, yaduwa da lalacewa matsalolin tunanin mutum, da kuma rushewar ilimin yara. Dole ne mu yi la'akari da, rayuwa tare kuma mu mutu tare da waɗannan sakamakon shekaru masu zuwa. A cikin tantance wane dabarun aiki mafi kyau - kulle-kulle vs kariyar mai da hankali - bai kamata mu kirga mace-mace daga Covid kawai ba, har ma da yawan mace-mace da rugujewar da ke haifar da kulle-kulle.
Babu shakka cewa dabarar kariyar da aka aiwatar da kyau zata iya ceton dubban rayuka a Burtaniya. Irin su Cummings da Farrar sun yi imanin cewa kulle-kulle sun riga sun kare tsofaffi masu haɗari. Sun yi aljani duk wanda ya ce akasin haka. Don haka gwamnatin Boris Johnson ta yi watsi da matakan kariya da aka mai da hankali da muka ba da shawara ga tsofaffi. Farrar yana zargin mu da haddasa mutuwar da ba dole ba. Wannan baƙon abu ne. Zargin nasa yana da ma'ana sosai lokacin da aka yi amfani da su ga waɗanda aka aiwatar da shawararsu a zahiri: 'A gaskiya muna tsammanin ra'ayoyinsu da amincin da Johnson ya ba su ne ke da alhakin adadin mutuwar da ba dole ba.'
Yawancin wannan bala'in ya samo asali ne daga tsarin siyasa na Cummings game da cutar. Kasar Burtaniya ta kai sama da nauyinta a lokacin yakin duniya na biyu saboda jarumtaka da hazaka da jajircewar jama'arta wajen fuskantar hadari. Amma akwai wani muhimmin al'amari. A yayin zaman dabarun, Winston Churchill ya kewaye kansa da mutane masu kwarewa da ra'ayoyi daban-daban. Su suka yi muhawara da karfi ta yadda za a iya jin dukkan muryoyin da za a iya tantancewa sosai kafin a dauki muhimman shawarwari. Wannan shi ne akasin abin da ke aiki a yakin neman zabe, inda mai hankali daya mai da hankali kan cin nasara yana nufin korar wadanda ke da sabanin ra'ayi.
Budaddiyar tattaunawa da muhawara game da yadda za a gudanar da cutar zai fi yiwa mutanen Biritaniya hidima. Muhawarar za ta iya haɗawa da fitattun masanan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan da kuma ƙwararru akan kowane fanni na lafiyar jama'a. Abin takaici ne cewa Cummings ya kasa canjawa daga tsarin yaƙin neman zaɓensa zuwa tsarin bincike da fuskoki da yawa waɗanda muke buƙata a lokacin gaggawa na ƙasa. Yaji dad'i kasancewar yanzu ba ya cikin lamba 10.
Rubuta daga Sanya
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Martin Kulldorff masanin cututtukan cututtuka ne kuma masanin halittu. Shi Farfesa ne na Magunguna a Jami'ar Harvard (a kan hutu) kuma Fellow a Kwalejin Kimiyya da 'Yanci. Bincikensa ya mayar da hankali kan barkewar cututtuka da kuma lura da rigakafin rigakafi da amincin magunguna, wanda ya samar da SaTScan, TreeScan, da software na RSequential kyauta. Co-Marubucin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington.
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Dr. Jay Bhattacharya likita ne, likitan dabbobi kuma masanin tattalin arziki. Shi Farfesa ne a Makarantar Kiwon Lafiya ta Stanford, Mataimakin Bincike a Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Kasa, Babban Babban Jami'in Cibiyar Nazarin Manufofin Tattalin Arziki na Stanford, Memba na Faculty a Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute, da Fellow a Kwalejin Kimiyya da 'Yanci. Binciken nasa ya mayar da hankali ne kan tattalin arziki na kiwon lafiya a duniya tare da kulawa ta musamman kan lafiya da jin dadin jama'a masu rauni. Co-Marubucin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington.
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