A cikin shaidar da ya ba Majalisar Burtaniya a ranar 26 ga Mayu 2021, tsohon mai ba da shawara na Boris Johnson Dominic Cummings ya kara da cewa masu sharhi sun riga sun isa cewa tsarin aiwatar da manufofin Burtaniya a farkon 2020 wanda ya haifar da kullewar Covid-19 na farko a karshen Maris an gudanar da shi cikin yanayi na firgita da hargitsi.
Gaskiya ne cewa ya kasance a cikin 'yan makonni kawai, kuma a wasu sassan kwanaki, an canza wannan manufar daga ɗayan 'rage' barkewar cutar ta SARS-CoV-2 zuwa ɗayan 'dannewa,' duk da cewa dakatarwar ta kasance mafi yawan sa hannun gwamnati a cikin rayuwar al'umma gaba ɗaya a tarihin zaman lafiya. Sukar Mista Cummings ita ce, amma saboda wannan firgici da hargitsi, da Burtaniya za ta iya ba da amsa ga barkewar cutar tare da tsauraran matakan kulle-kulle fiye da yadda ta yi.
Muna ganin ya dace a ce sukar Mista Cummings, ko ta yaya aka bayyana a sarari, wani abu ne na squib. Babban dalilin shi ne duk wanda ke da hannu a ciki ya dade da yarda cewa shawarar da aka baiwa Gwamnati a farkon 2020 ta dogara ne akan cikakkun bayanai. Amsar da gwamnati ta bayar ya dace da matsin lamba na aiki a cikin yanayin gaggawa da ake gani; an yi hasashen cewa za a yi asarar rayuka 510,000 a Burtaniya.
Sukar Mista Cummings ya biyo bayan amincewa da kansa na wannan hasashen. Amma, watsi da waɗanda ke riƙe da matsayi mai gardama cewa kulle-kulle ba amsa ba ce mai ma'ana ko da ga irin wannan gaggawar, waɗanda ke da ikon yin tunani mai zaman kansa tun daga farko sun kasa kawar da damuwa daga tunaninsu game da ma'auni da yanayin manufofin murkushewa dangane da irin wannan bayanan mara kyau.
Koyaya, rashin cikar bayanai, ko ta yaya aka yi alama, ba shine babban dalilin da ya kamata a dauki manufar Gwamnati ba, ba kamar yadda ba ta isa ba, kamar yadda Mista Cummings zai samu, amma a matsayin mummunan tashin hankali. Matsalar ba ko kadan ba ce adadin 510,000 daidai ne kawai a cikin ɓangarorin kuskure da aka yarda da su a cikin yanayin. Wannan adadi ya kasance lambar tsoratarwa ce wacce ba ta da wata ma'ana mai yuwuwa a cikin duniyar zahiri.
Mafi mahimmancin takaddun da aka samar yayin aiwatar da tsarin manufofin da ya haifar da kullewa shine 16 Maris 2020 Rahoton by the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team mai suna Tasirin Maganganun Magunguna (NPIs) don Rage Mutuwar Covid-19 da Buƙatar Kula da Lafiya. An kafa shi a cikin Janairu 2020 don ba da shawara game da yiwuwar yaduwar cutar ta kusan tabbas sabuwar ƙwayar cuta ta numfashi, SARS-CoV-2, Teamungiyar Ba da amsa ta sami babban tasiri a duniya kan manufofin. The Rahoton ya haifar da mafi sauri kuma mai faɗin canji daga kamewa a baya, har ma da siyasa mai annashuwa saboda, bayan nazarin abin da aka sani a lokacin cutar da tsananin cutar da ake zargin kasancewarta a Burtaniya, Rahoton An yi hasashen cewa sakamakon cutar numfashi, Covid-19, zai haifar da mutuwar mutane 510,000.
Kwayar cutar ta dogara sosai kan ikonta na wucewa daga kamuwa da cuta zuwa mutane masu saukin kamuwa, kuma a cikin babu makawa babu maganin rigakafi don (ko wasu ayyukan magunguna a kan) SARS-CoV-2, wannan lamari ne na ƙwayoyin cuta na ilimin halitta. Amma da yawan kamuwa da cuta Har ila yau, ba shakka, an ƙaddara shi ne ta hanyar adadin hulɗar tsakanin masu kamuwa da cuta da masu saukin kamuwa. A cikin yanayin kamuwa da cutar ɗan adam, adadin tuntuɓar lamari ne na hulɗar zamantakewar ɗan adam da manufofin gwamnati. The Rahoton yana yin la'akari da abin da za a iya yi don rage yawan kamuwa da cutar ta hanyar 'tsarin da ba na magunguna ba' wanda zai rage hulɗa. The Rahoton Shawara mafi mahimmanci ita ce a iyakance yawan hulɗar ɗan adam don murkushe cutar. An ba da wannan shawarar a cikin cikakken ilimin cewa zai buƙaci tsoma baki da ba a taɓa gani ba a cikin rayuwar tattalin arziki da zamantakewar kowa.
Tare da waɗannan la'akari a zuciya, bari mu ƙara duba a hankali yadda Rahoton ya gabatar da adadi 510,000. Tawagar mai ba da amsa ta fara bayanin sakamakon ta da cewa: 'A cikin (wanda ba zai yuwu ba) babu wani matakan sarrafawa ko canje-canje na kai tsaye a cikin ɗabi'un mutum [yaɗuwar kamuwa da cuta zai faru ta yadda] za mu yi hasashen kusan mutuwar 510,000 a [Birtaniya] da miliyan 2.2 a cikin [Amurka].' Yana da mahimmanci a gane cewa, a saka shi cikin karimci, ɓarna ne matuƙa don kwatanta wannan yanayin a matsayin 'wanda ba zai yuwu ba.' Bayaninsa a wani wuri a cikin Rahoton kasancewar sakamakon 'yin kome' ya ma fi ɓarna. Domin babu kwata-kwata babu yiwuwar cewa ba za a sami sauye-sauye na kwatsam na dabi'un da za su faru ba idan aka yi la'akari da barkewar cutar mura ko mura.
Da zarar an gane cewa Covid-19 cuta ce mai mahimmanci na numfashi, mai yawa, ga jama'a, ragewa ba tare da bata lokaci ba, tabbas gami da abin da Rahoton da aka gano da 'nisantawar jama'a na waɗanda suka haura shekaru 70,' da babu makawa ya faru. Haka kuma babu wani yuwuwar Gwamnati ba ta ɗauki wasu matakan kulawa ba, gami da matakan tallafawa irin wannan nisantar da jama'a ta hanyar, alal misali, tilasta yanayin shiga gidajen kulawa. Halin da ya faru Rahoton An annabta 'cutar da ba a shawo kanta' ko 'cutar da ba ta da tushe' da ta haifar da mutuwar mutane 510,000 ba abu ne mai yuwuwa ba; yanayi ne wanda ba zai taba yiwuwa ba.
Abin ban mamaki ya kasance, duk da haka, a cikin samar da adadi 510,000 Rahoton zahiri yi misalta saitin yanayi na zahiri waɗanda ba su taɓa wanzuwa ba kuma ba za su taɓa wanzuwa ba. Muna nemo madaidaicin kalmar don bayyana yadda abin damuwa yake cewa an gabatar da wannan adadi kamar yadda ta wata hanya da ke da alaƙa da duniyar da ke da ƙarfi, kuma haƙiƙa a matsayin iƙirarin da'awar mafi girma. Kuskuren da ke cikin nan ba shi da alaƙa da rashin cikar bayanai. A maimakon haka babban kuskuren ma'ana ne.
Adadin 510,000, wanda ya juya duniya a kai, adadi ne na fantasy da aka zayyana ta hanyar ƙirar ƙira na abin da ba zai yuwu ba. Babban hanyar da Mista Cummings, kuma ta wannan fuskar shi babban wakili ne, yana yin kuskure mai ban tsoro ita ce, lokacin da yake yanke hukunci game da manufofin gwamnati a matsayin martani ga gaggawa, bai ga dalilin da ya sa barkewar cutar ta SARS-CoV-2 ta barke cikin bala'in manufofin jama'a wanda ya zama babban kuskuren ƙirar Kwalejin Imperial ta London wanda gwamnati ta dogara da martaninta.
[An fara buga sigar farko ta wannan labarin a matsayin 'Hasashen fantasy na mutuwar mutane 510,000'in Mai kallo Australia a ranar Yuni 1st 2021.]
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Kevin Dowd masanin tattalin arziki ne mai sha'awar tsarin kuɗi da macroeconomics, ma'aunin haɗarin kuɗi da gudanarwa, bayyana haɗarin, nazarin manufofin, da fansho da ƙirar mace-mace. Shi Farfesa ne a fannin Kudi da Tattalin Arziki a Makarantar Kasuwancin Jami'ar Durham.
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