[Bayanin edita: an sake buga wannan labarin daga David Stockman's ContraCorner, wanda ke ba da irin wannan bincike kullum ga masu biyan kuɗi. Pound-da-laba, Stockman's kullum nazari shi ne mafi cikakku, ƙwaƙƙwaran, fahimta, da wadatar bayanai na duk wani abu da ake samu a yau. Shekarun da ya yi na gogewa a cikin harkokin kuɗi da manufofinsa, da ƙa'idarsa da almara na sadaukar da kai don bayyana gaskiyar da ba ta da tushe da kuma nuna iƙirarinsa tare da bayanai, a kullun ana nunawa. Brownstone yana alfahari da cewa Stockman shima yana aiki a matsayin babban malami, kuma cikin alheri ya ba da izinin sake bugawa na lokaci-lokaci anan.]
Babban abin ba'a na Gwamnatin Biden don aiwatar da hutu na watanni uku daga harajin 18.4 galan galan galan ya kamata ya zama abin faɗakarwa game da babbar barazana kuma mafi ɓarna. A zahiri, tattalin arzikin Amurka ya yi hasarar tushen kasuwancin sa kuma a yanzu yana yin kama da rikice-rikice na rikice-rikice, tarwatsewa da tashin hankali sakamakon maimaita bacin rai ta hanyar ka'idojin gwamnati na duniya, ayyukan kasafin kudi da haraji.
A hade, hare-haren Green Energy, kulle-kulle na Sintirin Kwayar cuta da masu ba da tsoro, rashin hauka na Fed da tsabar kudi dala tiriliyan 6 da ba a taba gani ba a cikin shekaru biyun da suka gabata sun lalata aikin tattalin arziki na yau da kullun.
Dangane da haka, sashin kasuwanci yana tashi makaho: Ba zai iya yin hasashen abin da ke saukowa a kan pike a cikin al'ada ba bisa la'akari da ƙa'idodi na gaskiya na dalili da sakamako. A yawancin lokuta, siginonin kasuwa na yau da kullun sun tafi kerflooey kamar yadda aka misalta da gargaɗin manyan masu siyar da akwatin kwanan nan cewa an ɗora su da ƙima mara kyau kuma za su ɗauki ragi mai raɗaɗi don share benaye.
Amma duk da haka ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa sun tara kayan sawa da na dogon lokaci, da sauransu, bayan wani lokaci da Hukumar Kula da Cututtuka ta rufe wuraren taron jama'a na yau da kullun kamar fina-finai, gidajen abinci, mashaya, wuraren motsa jiki, balaguron iska da makamantansu. Kuma fiye da Washington ta kara mai a cikin wuta ta hanyar yin amfani da tiriliyan na kashe kudaden da aka samu daga fa'idodin rashin aikin yi wanda ya kai dala 55,000 na shekara-shekara a wasu lokuta da kuma sake duba bayanan da aka yi wa manyan iyalai sun hada da dala 10,000 zuwa $20,000.
Ma'aikatan da ke aiki ba su buƙatar adadin $ 2,000 na binciken motsa jiki ba saboda a cikin "hikima" (hikimarta) masu sintiri na ƙwayar cuta ta tilasta musu yin tanadi kan kashe kuɗin jama'a.
Hakanan, ma'aikatan da aka kora na ɗan lokaci ba sa buƙatar $600 a kowane mako na UI na tarayya. Ga mafi yawan ɓangaren sun sami damar yin amfani da fa'idodin UI na yau da kullun, kuma sun sha wahala tilasta “ajiye” ta hanyar rufe gidajen abinci, mashaya, fina-finai da sauransu. Hatta ma’aikatan da ake kira “bude” waɗanda ba su cancanci fa'idodin jihar na yau da kullun ba ba su buƙatar $ 600 a kowane mako na UI bennies. Abubuwan da aka yi niyya na wucin gadi na iya biyan kashi 65% na albashinsu na farko akan ƙasa da $300 a kowane mako akan matsakaita.
Don haka abin da ya faru shi ne cewa ninki biyu na ajiyar sabis na tilastawa da kuma ɗimbin kwararar kayayyaki kyauta daga Washington ya haifar da bala'in tsunami na buƙatu wanda ya tsotse tsarin ƙirƙira kuma ya bushe sarƙoƙi.
Misali, anan shine canjin Y/Y a cikin daidaitawar farashin farashi na PCE don tufafi da takalma. Tsayayyen yanayin tattalin arzikin Amurka na wannan sashin ya karkata a kusa da layin layi yayin 2012-2019.
Sannan guguwar siyasar Washington ta afkawa. A lokacin kulle-kulle na Q2 2020 na asali, kashe kuɗi na gaske don kayan sawa da takalmi -27.0%, kamar yadda Dr. Fauci da Uwargidan Scarf suka aika rabin jama'ar Amurka suna zage-zage don neman matsayin tayi a cikin dakunan kwanansu da kogon mutum.
Amma bai ɗauki jama'ar Amirka dogon lokaci ba don samun wannan barkwanci. Ba da da ewa ba suka sake sake kashe kuɗin abincinsu da dai sauransu kuma suka cika shi tare da tsunami na kayan kyauta na Washington a cikin watanni 18 da suka ƙare a watan Satumba 2021. Wannan a zahiri ya juya tsarin kashe kuɗi.
Wato, an ayyana akwatunan isar da kayayyaki na Amazon “lafiya” da zarar CDC ta gano cewa kwayar cutar ba ta wuce kan saman ba - don haka jama'a suka tafi na'urorin ba da oda da sutura. Ta Q2 2021, musamman bayan Biden wawaye na dalar Amurka tiriliyan 1.9 a cikin Maris 2021, canjin Y/Y ya koma da ƙarfi zuwa + 57.1%.
Wancan bulala ce da tunanin mugunta. Hagu ga na'urorinsu masu amfani ba za su taɓa yo-yo kasafin kuɗinsu ta wannan hanya ba, ma'ana, bi da bi, dillalan, masu siyar da kayayyaki da masana'antu ba su da wata hanya mai yuwuwa don tinkarar tashe-tashen hankulan sarkar wadata da Washington ke yi.
Kamar yadda kuma ya bayyana daga ginshiƙi, canjin farashin Y/Y da aka daidaita a watan Mayu ya kusan komawa al'ada-kawai + 3.4%. Duk da haka zai ɗauki shekaru don sarƙoƙi da matakan ƙira da gauraya don murmurewa daga rudanin tattalin arziki da Washington ta haifar.
Canjin Canjin Yunƙurin Yu/Y da PCE don Tufafi da Takalmi, 2012-2022
Labarin iri ɗaya yana riƙe da kayayyaki masu ɗorewa-tare da girman yo-yo har ma da matsananci. Kamar yadda aka nuna ta ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, yanayin yanayin girma a cikin ainihin PCE don dorewa ya kasance 3.3% kowace shekara a cikin tsawon shekaru 14 tsakanin kololuwar pre-rikicin a cikin Oktoba 2007 da pre-Covid a cikin Fabrairu 2020. Ban da lokacin koma bayan tattalin arziki na 2008-2009, lambobin sun bi ingantaccen tsarin da kasuwancin za su iya jurewa.
Sai kuma Washington ta ba da umarnin bulala. A lokacin Afrilu 2020 ainihin PCE ya faɗi ta -17.5%daga shekarar da ta gabata, sai kawai ya barke da tashin hankali + 70.5% Y/Y a cikin Afrilu 2021. Waɗancan ɓangarorin da kuma tilasta “ajiye” kuma!
Amma yanzu an gama an gama. A lokacin Mayu 2022 canjin Y/Y ya kasance -9.1%. Bugu da ƙari, ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa kasuwancin suna da abubuwan ƙirƙira ba daidai ba kuma an lalata sarƙoƙi na birai daga wannan ƙarshen duniya zuwa wancan.
Canjin Y/Y A Tsakanin PCE na Gaskiya, 2007-2022
A gaskiya ma, wannan yana nuna wani nau'i na labarin bulala. Don sanin, juzu'i guda ɗaya na masana'antu zuwa sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya yana da ɓoyayyiyar rauni --ultra JIT (Just-In-Time).
Wato, lokacin da nisan jigilar kayayyaki ya tashi daga mil 800 a cikin Amurka zuwa mil 16,000 (daga masana'antu a Shanghai zuwa tashoshi a Chicago (ko kwanaki 68 a teku), tsarin hankali zai gina babban adadin m kaya don kare kai daga tarzomar da aka yi a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata.
Amma farashin ɗaukar kaya na sake fasalin ƙira mai zurfi zai kasance mai tsada sosai. Hakan ya faru ne saboda tsadar jarin aiki da kuma haɗarin tara abubuwan da ba daidai ba. Wato, yuwuwar farashin ƙira da rangwamen ciniki da rubutowa sun ci abinci sosai a cikin sasantawar aiki.
Amma ta hanyar Fed sauƙi kudi da wauta 2.00% hauhawar farashin niyya, samar da sarƙoƙi ya zama mafi tsawo, gaggautsa da kuma m. Wannan hujjar a yanzu ba ta da tabbas.
Kamar yadda ya faru, duk da haka, turawa zuwa sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki na ultra-JIT ya haifar da ɓarna mai yawa na lokaci ɗaya na farashi mai ɗorewa. A gaskiya ma, kusan 40% Ƙaddamar da na'urar PCE don karɓuwa tsakanin 1995, lokacin da masana'antun kera kayayyaki na kasar Sin suka fara rugujewa, kuma matakin farko na Covid-2020 na farkon XNUMX na ɗaya daga cikin manyan matsalolin tarihin tattalin arziki.
Muna matukar shakkar cewa layin baƙar fata da ke ƙasa ya faru a zahiri, adana don BLS mara iyaka tare da hedonics da sauran gyare-gyare ga CPI. Ee, kayan wasan yara, alal misali sun ragu da sama da kashi 60% a cikin wannan shekaru 25 na shekaru, amma kuma sun sake yin babban gyare-gyare na hedonics mara kyau ga lissafin ma'auni na kayan wasan wasa na China?
Duk da haka, hawan kyauta na deflationary ya ƙare. Tuni, mai ɗorewa mai ɗorewa ya kusan kusan kashi 13% daga pre-Covid low kuma akwai nisa, ƙarin ƙasa don ramawa yayin da sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki na duniya ke sake yin fashe samfuran JIT waɗanda suka samo asali kafin 2020.
PCE Deflator don Kaya Masu Dorewa, 1995-2022
Idan ya zo ga bulala da Washington ta haifar, duk da haka, akwai ƴan sasan da aka yi wa rauni kamar tsarin tafiye-tafiyen iska. A cikin Afrilu 2020, alal misali, hawan fasinja ya yi ƙasa da ƙasa 96% daga watan da ya gabata kafin annobar cutar, kamar yadda ya mutu kuma ya tafi. Haka kuma, wannan tsarin raguwa mai zurfi ya yi nasara sosai a cikin bazara na 2021.
Ba a la'akari da lafiyar jama'a ba ne ya tilasta rufe kamfanonin jiragen sama: Yawan musayar iska na gida mai yiwuwa ya sa su kasance mafi aminci fiye da yawancin mahalli na cikin gida.
Amma tsakanin ƙa'idodin CDC da ba a ba da izini ba da kuma tsoratar da masu sa ido kan cutar, har zuwa ƙarshen Janairu 2022 lodi ya ragu da kashi 34% daga matakan rigakafin cutar.
Irin waɗannan matakan aiki sun toshe abubuwan more rayuwa na masana'antar. Masu sarrafa kaya, ma'aikatan jirgin sama, matukan jirgi da duk wani aiki da ke tsakanin su sun fuskanci cikas sosai a cikin kudaden shiga da rayuwa--ko da bayan karimcin tallafin da Washington ta ba kamfanonin jiragen sama da ma'aikatansu.
Sannan kuma, an ƙara cin zarafi a lokacin da aka yi wa matukin jirgi da sauran ma'aikata barazanar dakatarwa saboda rashin son ɗaukar jab. Sakamakon ya kasance masana'antu don hargitsi kuma wani lokacin har ma da lalacewa.
Sai cunkoson ababen hawa suka dawo. Daga kashi 70% na matakan riga-kafin cutar a tsakiyar lokacin hunturu 2021-2022, hawan jirgi daga baya ya koma 90% a cikin 'yan watannin nan. Kash, tsarin tafiye-tafiyen jirgin sama yana da matsala sosai tare da ƙarancin ma'aikata na kowane nau'in da za a iya tsammani, wanda ke haifar da jadawalin gibi da sokewa kamar da wuya a da.
Kuma a yanzu an fara samun hauhawar farashin kaya yayin da fasinjoji masu matsananciyar biyan farashin da ba a taɓa jin ba a baya don samun ƙarancin kujeru a cikin watannin balaguron bazara.
Kamar yadda CBS News ta ruwaito kwanan nan,
Kamfanonin jiragen sama sun soke zirga-zirgar jiragen sama kusan 1,200 na Amurka a ranakun lahadi da litinin, lamarin da ya sa fasinjojin suka makale da jakunkuna a filayen tashi da saukar jiragen sama na kasar. An soke karin tafiye-tafiye dubunnan tafiye-tafiye a fadin duniya yayin da aka fara lokacin balaguron bazara.
Yanzu ga mummunan labari: Manazarta na kamfanonin jiragen sama sun ce jinkiri da sokewa na iya ci gaba da yin muni, kuma yana iya yin muni.
"Wataƙila ba mu ga mafi munin wannan ba," Kit Darby, wanda ya kafa Kit Darby Aviation Consulting, ya shaida wa CBS MoneyWatch.
A yanzu, lokacin da kuke da abubuwa na yau da kullun kamar gyaran jirgin sama ko yanayi, ana jin jinkiri sosai. Babu wasu ƙarin matukan jirgi, jirage, ma'aikatan jirgin - kuma sarkar tana da kyau kawai a matsayin mafi ƙarancin hanyar haɗin gwiwa, "in ji Darby.
Yawancin waɗannan matsalolin sun samo asali ne daga kamfanonin jiragen sama da ke lalata ma'aikata da wuri a cikin bala'in, lokacin da balaguron jirgin ya yi rauni. Tun daga lokacin buƙatun ya koma cikin sauri fiye da yadda kamfanonin jiragen sama ke iya haɓaka hayar ma'aikata.
"Babban al'amarin shine ba su da karfin. Ba su iya dawo da cikakken iya aiki dangane da matukan jirgi, wuraren bincike na TSA, dillalai a filin jirgin sama, masu sarrafa kaya, ma'aikatan kasa ko ma'aikatan jirgin," Editan tafiya na New York Times Amy Virshup ya shaida wa CBS News.
Dama. Amma abin da ke tashi yanzu shine farashin tikiti. Bayan kutsawa -28% a cikin Mayu 2020 a ƙarƙashin umarnin Fauci, farashin Mayu ya yi tashin gwauron zabi + 38% a kowace shekara.
Bugu da ƙari, abin da muke da shi shine tattalin arzikin da ke ƙasa da ƙasa sannan kuma mafi girma saboda manyan ayyukan gwamnati da ba dole ba. Sannan a bangaren makamashi, wanda muka dauka a kashi na 2, tashin hankalin ya fi tsanani.
Don neman shakku, duk da haka, a nan ga hauhawar farashin kaya-daidaita matakin kashe kuɗaɗen amfani da jirgin sama a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. A cikin 2020, ƙofar tarko na karin magana a zahiri ta buɗe ƙarƙashin masana'antar. Abubuwan fitarwa na gaske sun faɗi $62.3 biliyan ko 52%, sannan aka sake dawo da kashi 63% a shekara mai zuwa.
Wannan tabbas wani nau'i ne na yo-yo mai lalata tattalin arziki. Kuma duk abin da 'yan siyasar Washington da masu amfani da kayan aiki suka rura wutar da su, wadanda ba su da masaniyar cewa babban tattalin arzikin Amurka na dala tiriliyan 24 ba wani nau'in wasa ne na manyan motoci ba.
Real PCE don Jirgin Sama, 2002-2021
-
David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
Duba dukkan posts
