A farkon cutar ta Covid, Michael Levitt ya lura da raguwar yanayin girma a hankali a cikin Wuhan, kuma da yawa sun yi watsi da ko watsi da abubuwan da ya lura da su saboda abin da suke kallo ba daidai ba ne da kuma hanyoyin ilimin lissafin da ba na al'ada ba (Gompertz curves, sabanin tsarin al'ada na al'ada a cikin ilimin cututtuka).
Wasu masu bincike sun tafi har zuwa kiran aikin Michael Levitt "m banza" yana mai cewa ya kasance memba na al'ummar kimiyyar da ba shi da tushe balle makama ta hanyar kasancewarsa masanin cututtukan dabbobi da kuma gabatar da aikin da masu sukar Levitt suka yi imani da cewa sun yi watsi da coronavirus.
A ranar 17 ga Maris, 2020, John Ioannidis ya yi iƙirarin cewa tsananin Covid ba shi da tabbas kuma matsananciyar tsare-tsare kamar su kulle-kulle na iya haifar da illa fiye da cutar da kanta., tsokana Al'adar gaba ta gaba ga Dr. Ioannidis, daga da'awar karya na rikice-rikice-ban sha'awa. a cikin 2020 ga mutanen da ke zargin Ioannidis "ilimin ban tsoro" kuma mafi.
Kwarewata a matsayin mai ilimin cututtukan cututtuka na "Deviant".
A matsayina na masanin ilimin lissafi da ke nazarin ƙwayoyin cuta suna tsalle daga jemagu zuwa mutane na wasu shekaru kafin Covid, kuma a matsayin mai sharhi na jerin lokaci tare da kusan shekaru goma na hasashen hasashen nan da farkon 2020, ni ma ina nazarin Covid tun daga Janairu 2020.
Na lura da hikimomin Levitt's Gompertz - Levitt ya sami wani abin lura da ni kaina na samu, na lalacewa akai-akai a cikin yawan karuwar lamura tun kafin shari'o'i su karu a Wuhan, sannan a farkon barkewar cutar a Turai da Amurka. A cikin aikina, na sami shaida a cikin Fabrairu 2020 cewa lokuta suna ninka sau biyu kowane kwanaki 2-3 (ƙididdigar tsakiyar kwanaki 2.4) a farkon barkewar Wuhan a lokacin da Shahararrun masana cututtukan cututtukan sun yi imanin cewa yaduwar Covid zai ninka kowane kwanaki 6.2.
Mun san a lokacin cewa an fallasa shari'o'in farko a ƙarshen Nuwamba 2019. Idan aka ce shari'ar farko ta kasance ranar 1 ga Disamba, 2019, kwanaki 72 kafin kusan kololuwar farkon-2020 a China a ranar 11 ga Fabrairu, 2020. Idan shari'o'in sun ninka sau biyu a kowane kwanaki 2.4 a kan wannan 72-days, mutane da yawa ko biliyan 1, China za ta kasance biliyan 2. sun kamu. Idan, a maimakon haka, lamuran sun ninka kowane kwanaki 3, muna tsammanin kusan mutane 5 za su kamu da cutar a China.
Idan lokuta sun ninka sau biyu kowane kwanaki 6.2, muna tsammanin mutane 3,100 za su kamu da cutar a China. Da sannu a hankali adadin haɓakar shari'ar mutum ya yi imani, ƙarancin shari'o'in da suke tsammani, mafi girman adadin masu kamuwa da cuta da suka kiyasta kuma mafi tsananin damuwa da cutar ta Covid-19 za ta kasance. Waɗannan binciken sun sa na ga cancantar a cikin abubuwan lura na Dr. Levitt, da kuma yarda da maganganun Dr. Ioannidis na rashin tabbas na kimiyya da ke tattare da tsananin cutar ta Covid da duniya ke shirin fuskanta.
Duk da haka, lokacin da na ga yadda duniya ke bi da Levitt, Ioannidis, da wasu masana kimiyya da yawa da ke da sabanin ra'ayi da suka yi kama da nawa, na ji tsoron yiwuwar yin suna da kuma ƙwararrun haɗari daga raba ilimin kimiyya na. Na yi ƙoƙari in raba aikina a asirce amma na ci karo da furofesoshi suna iƙirarin cewa ni “ba mai ilimin cuta ba ne”, kuma wani ya gaya mani cewa “zan ɗauki alhakin mutuwar miliyoyi kai tsaye” idan na buga aikina, ba daidai ba ne, kuma na haifar da gamsuwa ga mutanen da suka mutu ta COVID.
Tsakanin irin wannan ganawa ta sirri daga masana kimiyya a wurare daban-daban da kuma jifan Levitt da Ioannidis a bainar jama'a, na damu da cewa buga sakamakona zai haifar da cewa a bainar jama'a ana kiran ni ba masanin cutar ba kamar Levitt, kuma ke da alhakin mutuwa kamar duka Levitt da Ioannidis.
Na yi nasarar raba aikina game da kiran hasashen CDC a ranar 9 ga Maris, 2020. Na gabatar da yadda na kiyasta waɗannan ɗimbin girma cikin sauri, abubuwan da suke haifar da fassarar farkon barkewar cutar a China, da kuma tasirinsu ga halin da ake ciki na COVID a Amurka. An san watsawar al'umma na Covid a cikin Amurka a lokacin da ya fara ranar 15 ga Janairu a ƙarshe,
Na nuna yadda barkewar ta fara a tsakiyar watan Janairu da ninki biyu kowane kwanaki 2.4 na iya haifar da dubun-dubatar shari'o'i a tsakiyar Maris, 2020. Mai watsa shiri na kiran, Alessandro Vespignani, ya yi iƙirarin cewa bai yarda da hakan ba, cewa saurin haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakawa na iya zama kawai don haɓaka ƙimar tabbatarwa, kuma ya ƙare kiran.
Kwanaki 9 kacal bayan na gabatar akan kiran CDC, an gano cewa shigar da Covid zuwa ICUs yana ninka kowane kwana 2 a duk masu ba da lafiya a cikin birnin New York. Duk da yake tabbatar da shari'ar na iya ƙaruwa, ƙa'idodin shigar da ICU, kamar ƙididdiga masu ƙididdige adadin iskar oxygen na jini, an daidaita su kuma don haka haɓakar ICU na NYC ya bayyana haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar gaske ta ninka kowane kwanaki 2 a cikin mafi girman yankin metro na Amurka.
A ƙarshen Maris, mun kiyasta sama da mutane miliyan 8.7 a duk faɗin Amurka sun ziyarci wani ma'aikacin jinya da ke da cututtukan mura. *ILI) kuma an gwada mara kyau ga mura, kuma wannan ƙididdigewa na marasa lafiya da yawa a cikin Maris sun tabbatar da ƙarancin ƙimar cutar ta COVID.
Bayan kallon Levitt, Ioannidis, Gupta da ƙari sun sami ɗimbin jama'a akan layi don buga shaidarsu, nazari da kuma dalilai na cutar ƙanƙanta, na san cewa buga takardar ILI wani ɓarna ne a cikin ƙungiyar kimiyya ta kan layi mai himma. Burina ba don in zama karkatacciya ba, amma don a tsanake da kuma kimanta adadin mutanen da suka kamu da cutar, da kuma gabatar da wadannan alkaluma ga duniya, saboda duniya na bukatar sanin irin mugunyar COVID za ta yi daidai da wannan kwayar cutar.
Koyaya, bayan mun fito da takardar ILI akan uwar garken preprint, ƙwararrun ƴan jaridun bayanai ne suka ɗauke takardar a Economist kuma ya tafi hoto ko bidiyo mai zagaya yanar gizo da sauri. Yayin da takardar ta yi yaɗuwa, barazanar ƙima da ƙwararrun da nake jin tsoro ta fara samuwa.
Abokan aikina sun ce na yi kasadar kasancewa “alhakin mutuwar miliyoyin” (laifi da ya yi daidai da kisan kiyashi, idan an dauki sharhin a zahiri), cewa ina da jini a hannuna, cewa ina “karkatar da sakon lafiyar jama’a,” cewa ni “ba likitan dabbobi ba ne,” da ƙari. Duwatsun baki sun fito daga kowane bangare, daga mutanen da a da abokan aiki ne kuma abokai har zuwa ga ’yan kungiyar kimiyya da ban taba jin labarinsu ba kafin na ce na kashe dubbai.
Kimiyya Ba a Raba
Na ci gaba da yin nazarin wannan madadin ka'idar Covid bisa ga saurin girma da ƙarancin girmanta. A karkashin wannan ka'idar, yana yiwuwa birnin New York ya kai ga garken garken garken garken garken sa na Maris 2020 kuma, idan haka ne, to ana iya amfani da fasalin fashewa a cikin New York don hasashen sakamako daga baya-bayan nan da ba a samu ba da kuma raguwar barkewar cutar a wurare kamar Sweden, South Dakota, da Florida.
Na kiyasta lokuta na Covid a cikin Faɗuwar 2020 barkewar cutar za ta kai kusan mutuwa 1 a cikin mutum 1,000 ko kuma mutuwar 340,000. A lokacin, har yanzu fitattun masana cututtukan cututtukan da ra'ayoyinsu suka yi daidai da “saƙon” suna amfani da su kiyasin sakamako mai tsanani, inda miliyoyin mutuwar Amurka zai yiwu idan kwayar cutar ta kasance ba ta cikin.
Duk da haka, da na fuskanci tashin hankalin da ya kai har zuwa da kuma bayan takardar ILI, da kuma ganin ci gaba da tashin hankali zuwa ga jujjuyawar masana kimiyya tare da irin wannan binciken da ya kauce daga "saƙon," na damu da raba wannan cikakkiyar ka'idar.
Na kalli a hankali a cikin bazara na 2020 kamar yadda ba zato ba tsammani da farkon kololuwar shari'o'i a Sweden sun ba da mamaki game da cututtukan cututtuka amma sun yi daidai da ka'idara. Na kalli barkewar faduwar 2020 daga Chicago zuwa Dakota ta Kudu tana raguwa, kamar yadda Levitt ya lura, kuma mafi girma tun da farko fiye da yadda muke tsammani daga tilastawa lokaci kuma ta hanyar da ta dace da barkewar Maris-Afrilu 2020 NYC. Matsakaicin lardin Amurka ya kai kusan mutuwa 1 a cikin mutum 1,000, barkewar Amurka ta kai kusan mutuwar mutane 350,000, kuma barkewar cutar a daruruwan kananan hukumomin da ba a daidaita su ba sun ga lokuta sun ragu kafin zuwan rigakafin.
Na ƙarshe fitar da waɗannan hasashen da binciken a cikin Afrilu 2021, Bayan alluran rigakafi sun sami isasshen lokacin da za a fitar kuma da fatan babu wanda zai yi da'awar cewa na rushe "saƙon." Da gangan na hana waɗannan binciken daga sabar bugu saboda ingantacciyar tsoron ƙiyayya daga al'ummar kimiyya yayin COVID-19.
Ta hanyar ƙirƙirar yanayi na bincike da ke adawa da shaidar ƙarancin ƙwayar cuta, kimiyyar da mutane ke karantawa kan labarai don sanar da imaninsu da ayyukansu na haɗarin Covid. Wannan kimiyyar ba ta kasance sakamakon gasa ta gaskiya ta ra'ayoyin da aka samu ta hanyar shaida da dabaru ba, amma shiru na ra'ayoyin da jami'an tarayya suka yi. m takedowns na ra'ayoyi masu gasa, ta hanyar haɓaka ra'ayi na zamantakewa / kafofin watsa labarai na son rai, da kuma ka'ida na keɓancewa da na jama'a waɗanda ke tilasta takamaiman ka'idar Covid-19.
Takaddama na Kimiyya a cikin COVID-19
Tantaunawa yana ɗaukar nau'i da yawa. Mafi tsaurin ra'ayi na nuna rashin jin daɗi shine aikata laifuka a hukumance, kamar kama mutane a Rasha waɗanda ke nuna adawa da yaƙin Putin da Ukraine.
Kimiyya a cikin Covid-19 ba a tantance ta ta kowace hanya ta zamantakewa kamar dokokin da ke hana magana ko buga takamaiman sakamako ba. Kimiyya, duk da haka, an rufe shi ta hanyar kula da zamantakewa na yau da kullun, ta hanyar masana kimiyya a cikin al'ummarmu ta tilastawa, ta kalmomi da ayyuka, ƙunƙun ra'ayin kimiyya da ƙa'idodi da ƙima game da wanda zai iya gabatar da binciken kimiyya ko ka'idar, ko kuma wanda zai iya yin wani batu na musamman ba tare da tursasa shi daga abokan aiki ba.
Ko kai hari Levitt da Ioannidis ko Babban Barrington Sanarwa sa hannun Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff da Sunetra Gupta, masana kimiyya sun yi amfani da dandamali na kafofin watsa labarun da kafofin watsa labarai na yau da kullun don ɗaukar ra'ayoyi masu gasa daga sauran masana kimiyya. Amma Washington Post, BuzzFeed, ko New York Times labarai ba wuraren da za a warware rashin tabbas na kimiyya ko ci gaban muhawarar kimiyya ba; wuraren da ake faɗaɗa saƙo ne, kuma saƙon da ake ƙarawa shine kimanta haɗarin COVID ya zama ƙasa da ƙwararrun masu cutar cuta ba daidai ba ne ko lalata kuma bai kamata a yi la'akari da shi ba ko bai dace ba yayin tattaunawa game da manufofin cutar.
Twitter, wani yanki na yaƙi wanda ya shahara wajen faɗaɗa abubuwan da za su iya tayar da hankali, ba shine wurin warware muhawarar kimiyya ba, amma galibi wuri ne da ake kiran jama'a da tattara gungun masu fusata waɗanda ke iya korar mutane.
Hare-haren da masana kimiyya suka yi a bainar jama'a ƙoƙari ne na kisa a bainar jama'a, kuma mu ƴan adam muna da dogon tarihi mai cike da damuwa na kisa a bainar jama'a. A tarihi, an yi imanin aiwatar da hukuncin kisa na jama'a zai fi hana karkata daga dokoki da hukumomi, kuma hukuncin da aka yi wa jama'a a cikin Covid ya yi daidai da manufar hana masu kallo kamar ni yin duk wani abu da za a iya fassara shi daga nesa da laifin da aka jefe manyan masana kimiyya na Stanford.
Tasirin zamantakewa, kuma mai yuwuwa manufar, na yunƙurin aiwatar da hukuncin kisa a bainar jama'a na masana kimiyyar da ke nuna rashin tabbas a sakamakon Covid ko, mafi muni duk da haka, kimanta ƙarancin nauyin cutar ta Covid, shine ikon zamantakewa na yau da kullun na masana kimiyya kamar ni waɗanda suka bincika bayanan Covid-19 kowace rana ta 2020 kuma suka zauna kan binciken da ke nuna rashin tabbas.
A cikin ilimin laifuka, ka'idar kula da zamantakewa tana ƙoƙarin bayyana dalilin da yasa wasu mutane ke aikata laifuka wasu kuma ba sa aikatawa, kuma na sami ka'idar kula da zamantakewa ta fi amfani don fahimtar zaɓin kaina don kar in tallata aikina a tsakiyar ƙarshen 2020.
A cikin 2020, na shaida yadda dandamalin kafofin watsa labarun da kafofin watsa labarai suka zama kayan aikin kera yarda na jama'a don yarda da wani gagarumin clique na epidemiologists. Waɗannan masanan cututtukan sun yi iƙirarin cewa kimiyyar tasu ba ta yi takara ba kuma sun kare ka'idodin kimiyya daga yin takara ta hanyar watsa takunkumin jama'a a kan ƴan uwansu masana kimiyya. Abin kunya, zargi, ba'a, rashin yarda, da sauran bincike kan kaucewa ka'idoji da dabi'u na aikin wallafe-wallafe bisa yarda da wannan gungun masana cututtukan cututtuka, ko daga masana da suka yarda da su.
Irin wannan kulawar zamantakewa na yau da kullun akan binciken kimiyya bashi da wuri a cikin kowace manufa ta kimiyya a cikin al'umma. Idan muka ƙyale masana kimiyya su kau da sauran masana kimiyya ta hanyar kai hare-hare na sirri, idan muka kasa rarraba hadaddun ƙungiyoyin kusanci tsakanin masana kimiyya da kafofin watsa labaru da suke amfani da su don samar da imani a cikin ka'idodin nasu, to, abin da muke kira "kimiyya" zai kasance yaƙi da imani ba tare da sulhuntawa ba ta hanyar aminci da haɗin kai na shaida da dalili, amma ta hanyar mummunan tashin hankali na yakin al'adu. Ya zama yaƙin kafofin watsa labaru na dabbanci don samun rinjaye na kimiyya ta hanyar ba'a ga masu adawa da murkushe rashin amincewa ta hanyar kula da zamantakewa na yau da kullum.
Hanyar Gaba
Idan, duk da haka, mun yi nazarin amfani da kafofin watsa labaru a kimiyya ba tare da jinkiri ba, da kuma yadda manyan masana kimiyya suka yi ƙoƙari na kisa na jama'a, za mu iya gano ciwon daji na zamantakewar al'umma a cikin kimiyyar mu kuma mu kawar da shi kafin ya kara girma. Kimiyyar da ba mu taɓa raba haɗari ba kasancewar binciken da ba mu taɓa samu ba.
Yayin da tarin ilimin kimiyyar da ba a raba shi ba, fahimtar kimiyyarmu game da rikice-rikice kamar annoba suna fama da lalacewar ilimin da bai sani ba. Ya kamata ya kasance cikin sha'awar dukkanin masana kimiyya don sauƙaƙe musayar ra'ayoyin kimiyya don tabbatar da cewa babu wani kimiyya da ba a raba shi ba daga tsoron ba'a ko kisa ga jama'a.
Alhamdu lillahi, mu masana kimiyya ne. Za mu iya ƙirƙira sababbin dandamali da cibiyoyi, da ƙirƙirar mafi kyawun kafofin watsa labarai masu ƙwarewa don musayar ra'ayoyin kimiyya, za mu iya sake fasalin kimiyya kafin annoba ta gaba.
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Alex Washburne masanin ilimin lissafi ne kuma wanda ya kafa kuma babban masanin kimiyya a Selva Analytics. Ya karanta gasar a cikin binciken muhalli, annoba, da tsarin tattalin arziki, tare da bincike kan cututtukan cututtukan fata, tasirin tattalin arziki na manufofin cutar, da martanin kasuwar hannun jari ga labarai na annoba.
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