A matsayinmu na ƙwararrun masana tattalin arziki, mun kalli martanin yawancin ƙwararrun ƙwararrun tattalin arziƙi ga kulle-kulle na zamanin COVID tare da ban mamaki. Idan aka yi la’akari da illolin da ke tattare da kulle-kulle ga lafiya da walwalar tattalin arziki, muna tsammanin masana tattalin arziki za su tayar da ƙararrawa lokacin da aka fara sanya takunkumi. Idan akwai wani ilimi na musamman da masana tattalin arziki suka mallaka, shi ne cewa kowane abu mai kyau yana da tsada. Wannan gaskiyar tana konawa a cikin zukatan masana tattalin arziki ta hanyar taken da ba na hukuma ba na sana'ar tattalin arziki cewa "babu wani abu kamar abincin rana kyauta."
Daga zurfafan rayukanmu, masana tattalin arziki sun yi imanin cewa ka'idar sakamakon da ba a yi niyya ba ta shafi kowane manufofin zamantakewa, musamman ma tsarin zamantakewa kamar yadda ya ƙunshi duka da kutsawa kamar kullewa. Mu masana harkokin tattalin arziki mun yi imanin cewa akwai ciniki a cikin komai, kuma aikinmu ne na musamman mu nuna su ko da a lokacin da duk duniya ke kururuwa don yin shiru game da su. Yana iya har yanzu yana da kyau a ɗauki wasu manufofin saboda fa'idodin sun cancanci farashi, amma ya kamata mu shiga tare da buɗe idanunmu game da duka biyun.
Wannan kulle-kullen, bisa manufa, zai sanya tsadar rayuwa ga jama'a gaba daya ba abin mamaki bane. Iyalin ayyukan ɗan adam da kulle-kulle ya shafa yana da yawa. Lockdowns sun rufe makarantu da filayen wasa, rufe kasuwancin, da kuma hana tafiye-tafiye na duniya. Lockdowns sun gaya wa yara cewa ba za su iya ziyartar abokansu ba, sanya abin rufe fuska a kan yara, da kuma korar daliban jami'a daga harabar. Sun tilasta wa tsofaffi su mutu su kaɗai kuma sun hana iyalai yin taro don girmama mutuwar dattawansu. Lockdowns ya soke yin gwaje-gwaje har ma da jiyya ga masu cutar kansa kuma sun tabbatar da cewa masu ciwon sukari sun tsallake duba lafiyarsu da motsa jiki na yau da kullun. Ga matalauta na duniya, kulle-kulle ya kawo ƙarshen ikon da yawa na ciyar da iyalansu.
Masana tattalin arziki, waɗanda suka yi nazari da rubutu game da waɗannan al'amuran don rayuwa, suna da nauyi na musamman don ƙara ƙararrawa. Kuma ko da yake wasu sun yi magana, yawancin ko dai sun yi shiru ko kuma suna haɓaka kulle-kulle. Masana tattalin arziki suna da aiki ɗaya - farashin sanarwa. A kan COVID, sana'ar ta gaza.
Akwai dalilai na sirri na wannan koyaswar waɗanda suke da sauƙin fahimta. Na farko, lokacin da jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a suka fara sanya dokar hana fita, mai hankali ya nuna adawa da duk wata shawarar da za a iya biya. Tsarin malalaci wanda ke kulle-kulle ya haifar da rayuka da daloli ya dauki hankalin jama'a. Wannan ya ba masu goyon bayan kulle-kulle hanya mai sauƙi don korar masana tattalin arziki waɗanda manufarsu ita ce nuna farashi. Idan aka yi la'akari da mummunan bala'i a cikin rayuwar ɗan adam da masu ƙirar annoba suka yi hasashe, duk wani ambaton komai game da illar kuɗi daga kulle-kullen ya yi muguwar ɗabi'a. Ƙaunar ɗabi'a da masu goyon bayan kulle-kulle suka tura wannan ra'ayin babu shakka ya taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen kawar da masana tattalin arziki. Ba wanda yake son a jefa shi a matsayin Scrooge maras zuciya, kuma masana tattalin arziki suna da ƙiyayya ta musamman ga ɓangaren. Laifin bai yi adalci ba idan aka yi la'akari da tsadar rayuwa da kulle-kullen suka sanya, amma komai.
Na biyu, masana tattalin arziki suna cikin ajin kwamfutar tafi-da-gidanka. Muna aiki da jami'o'i, bankuna, gwamnatoci, hukumomin tuntuba, kamfanoni, tankunan tunani, da sauran manyan cibiyoyi. Dangane da yawancin sauran al'umma, kulle-kullen ba su da lahani sosai a kanmu kuma watakila ma sun kiyaye wasun mu daga COVID. A taƙaice, kulle-kulle sun amfana da masana tattalin arziki da yawa, waɗanda wataƙila sun canza ra'ayinmu game da su.
A cikin wannan makala, za mu bar wadannan bukatu na kashin kansu a gefe, duk da cewa suna da mahimmanci, kuma za mu mai da hankali ne kawai kan kariyar basirar da wasu masana tattalin arziki suka gabatar don kare su na kulle-kulle. Cewa masana tattalin arziki suna da rauni da muradun ɗan adam wanda zai iya sa su kasa son faɗin abubuwan da ba su dace ba ko kuma gaba da son kai ba abin mamaki ba ne. Mafi ban sha'awa shine dalilan (rashin isassun, mun yi imani) cewa masana tattalin arziki sun ba da goyon bayansu na kulle-kulle tun da, idan daidai, za su ba da kariya ta hankali daga tuhumar da muke yi a cikin wannan maƙala na cewa sana'ar tattalin arziki, gaba ɗaya, ta kasa yin aikinta.
bazara 2020
A cikin Afrilu 2020, Majalisar Dinkin Duniya Shirin Abinci na Duniya gargadi cewa mutane miliyan 130 za su fuskanci yunwa sakamakon durkushewar tattalin arzikin duniya. Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ayoyin daga cikin illolin kiwon lafiya na wannan durkushewar tattalin arziki musamman ga yara; sun yi hasashen dubban daruruwan yara a kasashen da suka fi talauci a duniya za su mutu. Za su zama lalacewar haɗin gwiwa daga Babban Kulle, a matsayin Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya mai suna ya wuce Spring.
Yana da dabi'a a yi tsammanin masana tattalin arziki da yawa su daidaita waɗannan ƙididdiga kuma su ƙididdige yadda martaninmu game da ƙwayar cuta a cikin ƙasashe masu arziki zai cutar da talakawan duniya ta hanyar tarwatsa sarƙoƙi na duniya. Irin wannan aikin zai ƙara wayar da kan jama'a game da farashin martanin mu game da cutar.
Tsammaninmu na tunanin masana tattalin arziki na taka rawar gani ga matalautan duniya ya yi daidai. Shekaru da dama masana tattalin arziki sun yi kakkausar suka na kare tsarin tattalin arzikin duniya bisa hujjar cewa ya taimaka wajen fitar da mutane sama da biliyan guda daga matsanancin talauci da kuma kara tsawon rayuwa a ko'ina. Tattalin arzikin duniya yana da wasu manyan kurakurai - yawancin rashin daidaito da sauyin yanayi ana lura da su. Amma cibiyar hada-hadar kasuwanci ta duniya tana da muhimmiyar rawa wajen samar da ci gaban tattalin arziki wanda ke kawo ci gaba mai dorewa ga rayuwar matalautan duniya, in ji masana tattalin arziki.
Guguwar da ake sa ran za ta kididdige barnar da ta shafi duniya daga kulle-kullen kasashe masu arziki ba ta taba faruwa ba. Ban da 'yan kaɗan, masana tattalin arziki da gaske ba su dogara ga ƙididdige illolin kulle-kulle ba ko dai a cikin ƙasashe masu tasowa ko ƙasashe masu arziki.
Ka'idar Rigakafi da Ƙaunar Kulle
Tuni a cikin Maris 2020, masana tattalin arziki sun ɗauki kulle-kulle a matsayin abin da ya dace. Dalilinsu shine ɗaukaka sigar ƙa'idar taka tsantsan. Ƙungiyoyin bincike da yawa xƙididdigewa yaya Babban lalacewar tattalin arziƙin dole ne ya kasance don kulle-kulle don zama masu fa'ida akan yanar gizo. Yin amfani da hasashen masu cutar kanjamau na nawa makullin rayuka za su iya ceton, waɗannan nazarin sun ƙididdige darajar dala na shekarun rayuwar da aka ajiye ta hanyar kulle-kulle.
A farkon annobar, akwai rashin tabbas na kimiyya game da yanayin kwayar cutar da kuma hadarin da ke tattare da ita. Fuskantar wannan rashin tabbas, masana tattalin arziki da yawa (haɗuwa da sauran masana kimiyya waɗanda basu da cikakken horo kan tunani game da yanke shawara a ƙarƙashin rashin tabbas) sun ɗauki wani nau'i na musamman na ƙa'idar taka tsantsan. Motsa jiki a fakaice a cikin waɗannan nazarin ya ɗauki darajar fuskar abin da aka fitar daga ƙirar ɗaki tare da dubious zato game da mahimman sigogi, kamar yawan mace-macen kamuwa da cuta daga samfurin da kuma bin manufofin kullewa. Ba abin mamaki ba, waɗannan binciken na farko sun kammala cewa kulle-kulle zai yi amfani, koda kuwa za su haifar da rugujewar tattalin arziki.
An yi amfani da rikicin COVID, ƙa'idar yin taka tsantsan ta ce lokacin da kuke da rashin tabbas na kimiyya, yana iya yin ma'ana a ɗauka mafi munin lamarin game da yanayin halitta ko na zahiri da kuke son hanawa. Wannan shine abin da farkon nazarin tattalin arziƙin kulle-kulle ya yi ta hanyar ɗaukar ƙimar farkon kididdigar da samfuran cututtukan cuta suka samar (kamar Tsarin Kwalejin Imperial) na mutuwar COVID mai ban tsoro a cikin rashin kulle-kulle.
Manufar ita ce tun da ba mu sani da tabbaci ba, alal misali, game da yawan mace-macen kamuwa da cuta, rigakafi bayan kamuwa da cuta, da kuma alaƙar tsananin cutar, yana da kyau a ɗauka mafi muni. Don haka dole ne mu yi aiki kamar biyu ko uku cikin ɗari masu kamuwa da cutar za su mutu; babu wani rigakafi bayan kamuwa da cuta; kuma kowa, ko da wane shekaru, yana cikin haɗarin asibiti da mutuwa bayan kamuwa da cuta.
Duk waɗannan zato masu tsattsauran ra'ayi sun zama ba daidai ba, amma ba shakka, ba za mu iya sanin hakan da tabbaci a lokacin ba, kodayake an riga an sami wasu shaidun akasin haka. Rashin tabbas na kimiyya sanannen abu ne mai wuyar warwarewa kafin aikin kimiyyar da ke ɗaukar lokaci don warware su, don haka watakila yana da hankali a ɗauka mafi muni. Abin baƙin ciki shine, daidaitawa akan mafi munin yanayi sannan ya haifar da tsoro mara tushe na dogon lokaci tsakanin jama'a da masana tattalin arziki.
Wannan duk yana da ma'ana sosai, amma akwai sha'awar asymmetry a cikin aiwatar da ƙa'idar taka tsantsan a cikin waɗannan nazarin. Tare da fa'idar hangen nesa, ya kamata a bayyana a sarari cewa wannan aikace-aikacen ƙa'idar taka tsantsan ga rashin tabbas na Maris 2020 bai cika cika ba. Musamman ma, ba daidai ba ne a ɗauka mafi kyawun shari'ar game da cutarwa daga ayyukan da kuke son aiwatarwa yayin da kuke karɓar mafi muni game da cutar.
Akwai illoli daga manufofin kulle-kullen da duk wani masanin tattalin arziki da ya dace ya yi la'akari da shi kafin ya yanke shawarar cewa kulle-kulle yana da kyau ko da a lokacin. Daidaitaccen aiki na ƙa'idar taka tsantsan zai yi la'akari da yuwuwar irin wannan lahani na kulle-kullen, tare da ɗauka mafi muni kamar yadda ƙa'idar ta tanada.
A cikin firgici na Maris 2020, masana tattalin arziki sun zaci mafi kyau game da waɗannan lahani na haɗin gwiwa. Sun amince da a sarari cewa kulle-kullen ba zai yi tsada ba kuma babu wani zabi illa tilasta dokar hana fita, da farko na tsawon makonni biyu sannan na tsawon lokacin da za a dauka don kawar da yaduwar cutar al'umma. A karkashin waɗannan zato wanda ya haifar da ƙila ta hanyar amfani da asymmetric na ƙa'idar taka tsantsan, masana tattalin arziki sun yi shiru yayin da gwamnatoci ke ɗaukar manufofin kullewa.
Baya ga maganin asymmetric na rashin tabbas na kimiyya game da cututtukan COVID da cutarwa ta kulle-kulle, masana tattalin arziki sun yi kuskure ta ƙarin hanyoyi biyu wajen amfani da ƙa'idar taka tsantsan. Na farko, lokacin da shaida ta taso sabanin mafi munin lamarin, masana tattalin arziki sun dage kan ci gaba da gaskata mafi munin lamarin. Misali ɗaya na wannan taurin kai shine mummunan martani da mutane da yawa (ciki har da masana tattalin arziki da yawa) suka yi karatu cewa ya nuna Adadin mace-macen kamuwa da cuta daga COVID ya yi ƙasa sosai fiye da yadda ake fargabar farko. Abin da ya sa yawancin wannan martanin shine tunanin cewa wannan sabuwar shaida na iya sa jama'a da masu tsara manufofi su yi imani da mafi munin mutuwar cutar kuma ta haka ba za su bi umarnin kullewa ba.[1] Misali na biyu shine tallafin masana tattalin arziki (tare da wasu ware) a cikin 2020 don ci gaba da rufe makarantu a Amurka ta fuskar kwararan hujjoji daga Turai da suka nuna cewa ana iya buɗe makarantu lafiya.
Na biyu, yayin da ka'idar yin taka tsantsan tana da amfani don taimakawa yanke shawara (musamman, zai iya taimakawa wajen guje wa gurɓacewar shawara ta fuskar rashin tabbas), har yanzu dole ne mu yi la'akari da wasu manufofi daban-daban. Abin takaici, a cikin bazara na 2020, masana tattalin arziki - a cikin gaggawar su don kare kulle-kullen - sun rufe idanunsu ga duk wata hanya ta kulle-kulle, kamar su. shekaru masu niyya mayar da hankali kariya manufofin. Waɗannan kurakuran sun ƙara ƙarfafa ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararru.
Tsoron Rational?
Sililin na biyu na analysis Masana tattalin arziki a cikin bazara na 2020 watakila ya fi tasiri wajen juya masana tattalin arziki don goyon bayan kulle-kulle. Masana tattalin arziki sun lura cewa yawancin raguwar motsi da ayyukan tattalin arziki sun faru ne kafin gwamnatoci su sanya duk wani umarni na kulle-kulle. Ƙarshe? Rushewar ayyukan tattalin arziki a cikin bazara na 2020 ba ta hanyar kulle-kulle ba ne ya haifar da canje-canje na son rai. Tsoron kwayar cutar ya sa mutane shiga cikin nisantar da jama'a da sauran matakan kariya don kare kansu, in ji masana tattalin arziki.
Bayan da aka kammala cewa kulle-kulle ba sa kawo cikas ga ayyukan tattalin arziki, masana tattalin arziki sun ga ƙarancin buƙatu na ƙididdige duk wata barna ta gida ko ta duniya daga kulle-kullen.
Ga gwamnatoci, wannan yarjejeniya tsakanin masana tattalin arziki ya ba da taimako mai yawa kuma ya isa daidai lokacin. A kusan lokaci guda a cikin bazara na 2020, ya bayyana a fili cewa zurfin durƙushewar tattalin arziƙin ya yi yawa. ya fi girma fiye da farkon tsammani. Yana da mahimmanci ga 'yan siyasa su zargi wannan lalacewar tattalin arzikin akan kwayar cutar kanta maimakon kulle-kullen tunda sune ke da alhakin na ƙarshe amma ba na farko ba. Kuma masana tattalin arziki sun wajaba.
Amma wannan ƙarshe game da rashin lahani na kulle-kulle ya dace? Masana tattalin arziki ba shakka sun yi daidai cewa motsi da ayyukan kasuwanci da sun canza ko da ba tare da wani kulle-kulle ba. Tsofaffi masu rauni sun kasance masu hikima su ɗauki wasu matakan kariya, musamman tsofaffi. Matsakaicin girman shekaru gradient a cikin haɗarin mace-mace daga kamuwa da cuta tare da sabon coronavirus an riga an san shi a watan Maris 2020.
Koyaya, hujjar cewa mutane za su kulle da son rai ta wata hanya ko da kuwa babu wani kulle-kulle na yau da kullun. Da farko, a ce mun dauki hujjar cewa mutane da hankali da son rai sun hana halayensu don mayar da martani ga barazanar COVID daidai. Wata ma'ana ita ce kulle-kulle na yau da kullun ba lallai ba ne tunda mutane da son rai za su rage ayyukan ba tare da kullewa ba. Idan gaskiya ne, to me yasa ake samun kulle-kullen kwata-kwata? Kulle na yau da kullun yana sanya takunkumi iri ɗaya akan kowa, ko sun sami damar ɗaukar cutarwa ko a'a. Sabanin haka, shawarar lafiyar jama'a don taƙaita ayyukan da son rai na ɗan lokaci zai ba wa waɗanda - musamman matalauta da ma'aikata damar - don guje wa mummunan lahani da ke da alaƙa. Cewa wasu (ko da yake ba duka ba) mutane sun rage halayensu don mayar da martani ga barazanar cutar don haka ba isasshiyar hujja ba ce don tallafawa kulle-kulle.
Na biyu, kuma watakila mafi mahimmanci, ba duk tsoron COVID ya kasance mai hankali ba. Bincike gudanar a cikin bazara 2020 nuna cewa mutane sun fahimci yawan mace-macen jama'a da haɗarin asibiti sun fi yadda suke a zahiri. Waɗannan binciken kuma sun nuna cewa mutane ba su yi la'akari da girman haɗarin da ke tasowa da shekaru ba. Ainihin haɗarin mace-mace daga COVID shine a dubu sau mafi girma ga tsofaffi fiye da na matasa. Shaidar bincike nuna cewa mutane suna kuskuren fahimtar shekaru don samun tasiri mafi ƙanƙanta akan haɗarin mace-mace.
Wannan tsoron da ya wuce kima ya sami ɗan ɗaukar hoto har zuwa kwanan nan. Misali, nazari kan tsoro da aka buga a Yuli da kuma Disamba 2020 ya sami ɗan ƙarami a lokacin amma an tattauna ta New York Times in Maris 2021 da sauran manyan kafafen yada labarai jim kadan bayan haka. Waɗannan jinkirin suna nuna dagewa (amma a ƙarshe a ƙarshe) ƙin yarda da kafofin watsa labarai na yarda da waɗannan gaskiyar, waɗanda ke da kwakkwarar shaida cewa tsoron jama'a na COVID bai dace da ainihin gaskiyar cutar ba.
Don haka, tuhumar da muke yi na cewa masana tattalin arziki ba su da isasshen kulawa ga illolin da ke tattare da kulle-kulle don haka ba za a iya kaucewa ta hanyar mayar da hankali ga tsoron COVID a cikin jama'a ba.
Tsoro a matsayin Manufa
Akwai ma matsala mafi zurfi tare da hujjar firgita na hankali. A wani bangare na ƙa'idar taka tsantsan, gwamnatoci da yawa sun ɗauki manufar haifar da firgita a cikin jama'a don haifar da bin matakan kullewa. A wata ma'ana, kulle-kulle da kansu sun haifar da firgici tare da gurbata hasashen haɗarin masana tattalin arziki, kamar yadda suke gurbata hasashen haɗarin jama'a gaba ɗaya. Makulli ya kasance, bayan haka, kayan aikin manufofin da ba a taɓa gani ba a zamanin yau, kayan aiki ne wanda Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya da kafofin watsa labarai na Yamma har yanzu a cikin Janairu 2020 suka yanke hukunci a matsayin zaɓin manufa mai ma'ana. Ba a fayyace ba har ga masana kimiyya masu tasiri kamar Neil Ferguson ko yammacin zai kasance son yin kwafi Makulli irin na China ko bi su idan an aiwatar da su.
Sannan a cikin Maris 2020, an karɓi kulle-kulle kuma ya zama wani muhimmin ɓangare na yanke shawara to firgita jama'a don haifar da yarda. Makullin farko ya haifar da tsoro a wani wuri, kuma kowane kulle-kullen da ya biyo baya ya kara girma. Saboda kulle-kulle ba sa bambance wanda ke cikin haɗari mafi girma daga ƙwayar cuta, wataƙila su ma babban laifi ne ga rashin fahimtar jama'a game da babbar hanyar haɗin gwiwa tsakanin shekaru da haɗarin mutuwa na COVID.
Saboda kiyasin masana tattalin arziki na tasirin kulle-kulle sun yi watsi da waɗannan fargabar fargabar da ke faruwa daga kulle-kulle zuwa wasu hukunce-hukuncen, ƙaddamar da cewa kulle-kulle ba ta haifar da wata babbar illa ga tattalin arziƙi ba ta dace ba. Babban raguwa na son rai na motsi da ayyukan kasuwanci ba martani ne kawai na hankali ga haɗarin COVID. Tsoron COVID da yawa da ke haifar da kulle-kulle ya haifar da raguwar motsi da ayyukan tattalin arziki. Tsoron COVID da ya wuce kima don haka ya haifar da martanin ɗabi'a wanda ba shi da ma'ana.
Makullin lokacin bazara na 2020 don haka yana iya haifar da raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziki fiye da yarjejeniya tsakanin masana tattalin arziki. Masana tattalin arziki ba su son yin nazarin abubuwan da wannan gaskiyar ke haifarwa, kamar yadda masana tattalin arziki ba su son yin nazarin abubuwan da ke tattare da babban batun da gwamnatoci suka haifar da fargaba a tsakanin jama'a a zaman wani bangare na manufofin adawa da COVID.
A Conservative Evaluation
Bari mu bar cece-kuce kan ko raguwar motsin ɗan adam a cikin bazara na 2020 martani ne na ma'ana game da haɗarin da kwayar cutar ta haifar ko kuma firgita da ta haifar. A gaskiya ma, yana yiwuwa ya kasance cakuduwar duka biyun. Bari mu ɗauki matakin kullewa binciken Masana tattalin arziki da suka nuna cewa "kawai" kashi 15% na raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziki ana iya danganta su da kulle-kulle. (Za mu bar gaskiyar cewa wasu nazarin tattalin arziki game da kulle-kulle suna da samu rabon raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziki wanda ke da alaƙa da umarnin kullewa na yau da kullun ya zama mafi girma, har ma da 60%. A'a.
Tuna farkon kididdigar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya da ta yi hasashen yunwa na mutane miliyan 130 a kasashe matalauta saboda koma bayan tattalin arzikin duniya. A ce kawai kashi 15% na wannan adadi ana iya danganta shi da kulle-kulle. Ɗaukar kashi 15% na miliyan 130 yana haifar da adadin da ke wakiltar babban wahalar ɗan adam wanda ake dangantawa da kulle-kulle, har ma da wannan ƙima mai ra'ayin mazan jiya. Kuma ba mu fara kirga sauran illolin kulle-kulle ba, wadanda suka hada da daruruwan dubban na ƙarin yara a Kudancin Asiya da suka mutu saboda yunwa ko rashin isassun kulawar likita, rugujewar hanyoyin sadarwar jiyya na tarin fuka da masu cutar kanjamau, jinkirta jinyar cutar kansa da tantancewa, da dai sauransu.
A takaice dai, idan da gaske kulle-kulle ne ke da alhakin ɗan ƙaramin kaso na raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziƙi - kamar yadda masana tattalin arziki da yawa suka yi iƙirari - jimlar yawan kuɗin lamuni na gida da na duniya daga kulle-kullen har yanzu yana da yawa. Abubuwan da ke tattare da cutarwa ga lafiyar ɗan adam da rayuwar da ke haifar da kullewa sun yi girma da yawa ba za a iya watsi da su ba, ko da a ƙarƙashin tunanin cewa firgici ya faru idan babu kulle-kulle.
Hakanan yana ba da lura cewa tasirin kulle-kulle na dogon lokaci kan ayyukan kasuwanci ba shi da tabbas. Sabanin ka'idojin kulle-kulle na iya sanyaya gwiwar kasuwancin gaba da ayyukan kasuwanci fiye da motsi na son rai da rage ayyukan tattalin arziki. Shiru masana tattalin arziki game da illolin kulle-kulle shima yana nuna imani cewa kowane kulle-kulle yana zuwa ba tare da lahani ba. A hakikanin gaskiya, kowane kulle-kulle yana haifar da nasa sakamakon sakamakon da ba a iya faɗi ba tun lokacin da suke ɓata hulɗar ɗan adam da tattalin arziƙi ta hanyoyi daban-daban.
Rawar da Masana Tattalin Arziki Suka Taba
Ƙarshen masana tattalin arziki na cewa kulle-kulle ba za su iya yin wani lahani ba don haka bai dace ba. Shaidar da masana tattalin arziki suka gabatar ba ta ba da hujjar yin watsi da yunƙurin ƙididdige ƙimar lafiyar duniya da na gida na kulle-kulle ba. Lockdowns ba abincin rana kyauta ba ne.
Ga tattalin arziki, gazawar tattara bayanan lamuni daga kulle-kulle yana da mahimmanci. Maƙasudin tattalin arziƙi shine samar da fahimtar raɗaɗi da nasara a cikin al'umma. Matsayin masana tattalin arziki shine tattara bayanan gaskiya da kasuwanci tare da nuna yadda kimanta manufofin siyasa suka dogara da ƙimar mu ma. Lokacin da masana tattalin arziki suka rufe ido ga radadin da ke cikin al'ummarmu, kamar yadda suka yi a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, gwamnatoci sun rasa mahimman alamomin da ake buƙata don tsara daidaitattun manufofi.
A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, irin wannan makanta yana sake tabbatar da imanin ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararrun kuma ta tabbatar da cewa tsarin yana daidai. Matukar kawai za a yi nazari kan fa'idodin kulle-kulle kuma ana tattaunawa a kafafen yada labarai, yana da wahala jama'a su ki amincewa da kulle-kullen. Amma sannu a hankali duk da haka babu makawa, gaskiyar game da raɗaɗi, babba da ƙanana, an bayyana a cikin dogon lokaci. Sunan tattalin arziki ko sahihancin tsarin siyasarmu ba zai yi kyau ba idan rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin masu fada aji da wadanda suka ji barnar da aka yi a baya ta yi yawa idan aka bayyana wannan rarrabuwar kawuna. Ta hanyar rashin tattara bayanan raɗaɗin da ke haifar da kulle-kulle, masana tattalin arziki sun kasance masu ba da uzuri ga martanin gwamnati.
Tabbas, wasu masana tattalin arziki sun yi tambaya game da yarjejeniyar kulle-kulle a duk lokacin barkewar cutar, kuma kwanan nan, wasu sun fara bayyana shakkunsu ma. Hakanan, ga darajar ƙwararrun, ɗimbin masana tattalin arziki sun mayar da martani game da cutar tare da himma sosai a yunƙurin taimakawa masu tsara manufofin yanke shawara. Ko an yi ja-gorar waɗannan ƙoƙarce-ƙoƙarce ta hanya mafi kyau, wani batu kuma. Amma duk da haka, sana’ar tattalin arziki za ta dade tana fama da rashin iya magana ga talakawa, ma’aikata, kananan ’yan kasuwa, da yaran da suka yi fama da barnar da suka shafi kulle-kulle.
Masana tattalin arziki kuma sun yi kuskure wajen rufe sahu cikin sauri da kuma zage-zage don gina ra'ayi mara kyau game da kulle-kulle. Wani masanin tattalin arziki ya ma lakafta—a bainar jama’a—wadanda suka yi zargin ra’ayin a matsayin “maƙaryata, ’yan zullumi, da masu saɓani.” Wani masanin tattalin arziki ya shirya kauracewa a Facebook na littafin tattalin arziki na kiwon lafiya (wanda daya daga cikin mawallafin wannan rubutun ya rubuta tun kafin barkewar cutar) a matsayin martani ga buga Babban Sanarwar Barrington, wanda ke adawa da kulle-kulle tare da fifita hanyar kariya ta kariya ga cutar. A cikin irin waɗannan hukunce-hukuncen hukumce-hukumce daga shugabannin ƙwararrun, ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa ba a cika ƙalubalantar yarjejeniya kan kulle-kulle ba. An tsoratar da masana tattalin arziki da sauran su kan nuna farashin kulle-kulle.
Ƙoƙarin murƙushe muhawarar kimiyya game da kulle-kulle ya yi tsada amma ya zo da layin azurfa guda ɗaya. Yin amfani da irin waɗannan dabarun da ba a yarda da su ba don tallafawa ra'ayi yarjejeniya ko da yaushe yarda ce a fakaice cewa gardama da ke goyan bayan ijma'i an fahimci su kansu ba su da ƙarfi don jure bincike.
Gaggawar masana tattalin arziki don cimma matsaya kan kulle-kulle shima yana da fa'ida ga kimiyya. Da zarar horon kimiyyar da ke da alhakin ƙididdige ciniki a cikin rayuwa ya yanke shawarar cewa linchpin na amsawar COVID-kulle-ba ta da wani ciniki, ya zama dabi'a don tsammanin kimiyya za ta ba mu amsoshi marasa ma'ana a cikin dukkan lamuran COVID. Shiru da masana tattalin arziki suka yi kan farashin kulle-kulle, a zahiri, ya ba wa wasu carte blanche yin watsi da ba kawai farashin kullewa ba har ma da farashin wasu manufofin COVID kamar rufe makarantu.
Da zarar ƙiyayya ta nuna farashin manufofin COVID ta kama tsakanin masana kimiyya, ana ganin kimiyya sosai kuma ana amfani da ita azaman dalĩli. 'Yan siyasa, ma'aikatan gwamnati, har ma da masana kimiyya a yanzu suna ɓoyewa a bayan "bi kimiyya" mantra maimakon yarda cewa kimiyya kawai yana taimaka mana mu yanke shawara. Ba za mu ƙara yarda da hakan ba—saboda zaɓin mu koyaushe yana haɗa da ɓata-ɓangaro-dabi’ar bin tsarin aiki ɗaya akan wani koyaushe yana dogara ba kawai akan ilimin da muke samu daga kimiyya ba har ma akan ƙimarmu. Da alama mun manta cewa masana kimiyya suna samar da ilimi ne kawai game da duniyar zahiri, ba ma'anar ɗabi'a game da ayyukan da suka haɗa da ciniki ba. Na ƙarshe yana buƙatar fahimtar ƙimar mu.
Yawan amfani da kimiyya a matsayin garkuwar siyasa ta wannan hanyar na iya zama wani ɓangare na nuna gaskiyar cewa, a matsayinmu na al'umma, muna jin kunyar tsarin ƙimar da haninmu na COVID ya bayyana a sarari. Wannan suka kuma ya shafi tattalin arziki. Mafi yawan abin da masana tattalin arziki suka yi a cikin shekarar da ta gabata na hidimar masu hannu da shuni da masu mulki ne ta hanyar cin gajiyar talakawa da masu matsakaicin karfi. Sana'ar ta nemi ɓoye ƙimar ta ta hanyar yin kamar cewa kulle-kulle ba shi da tsada kuma ta hanyar dakile duk wani sukar yarjejeniya ta kulle-kulle.
Yakamata Masana Tattalin Arziki Su Zama Masu Lambu, Ba Injiniya Ba
Rungumar masana tattalin arziki game da kulle-kulle abu ne mai tambaya kuma ta fuskar ka'idar. Rikicin tattalin arziki da bambancin ra'ayi na daidaikun mutane sun karkatar da masana tattalin arziki gabaɗaya don goyon bayan 'yancin ɗan adam da kasuwanni masu 'yanci kan shirin gwamnati. Gwamnatoci ba su da bayanan da ake buƙata don tafiyar da tattalin arzikin yadda ya kamata ta hanyar tsare-tsare na tsakiya. Duk da haka, a cikin yanayin kulle-kulle, masana tattalin arziki da yawa ba zato ba tsammani sun bayyana suna tsammanin gwamnatoci za su fahimci sosai waɗanne ayyuka na al'umma ke da "masu mahimmanci" kuma 'yan ƙasa sun fi kima da su kuma wa ya kamata su yi su.
A cikin makonni kaɗan kawai a cikin bazara na 2020, da alama masana tattalin arziki da yawa sun canza zuwa abin da Adam Smith ya yi shekaru 260 da suka gabata. ba'a a matsayin "mutumin tsarin." Da wannan, yana nufin mutumin da yake tunanin cewa al’umma wani abu ne mai kama da wasan ƙwanƙwasa, cewa tana bin dokokin motsi da muka fahimta da kyau kuma za mu iya amfani da wannan ilimin don ja-gorar mutane cikin hikima yadda suke so. Masana tattalin arziki ba zato ba tsammani sun manta cewa fahimtarmu game da al'umma kullum ba ta cika ba, cewa ƴan ƙasa za su kasance suna da dabi'u da bukatu fiye da abin da muke da shi, kuma za su yi aiki ta hanyoyin da ba za mu iya yin hasashe sosai ba ko sarrafawa.
Ta wata fuskar, tallafin masana tattalin arziki na kulle-kulle ba abin mamaki bane. Ana iya ganin yarjejeniyar kulle-kullen a matsayin sakamako na ƙarshe na ƙwaƙƙwaran fasaha na masana tattalin arziki na zamani. Duk da yake har yanzu littattafan karatun tattalin arziki suna jaddada tushen sana'a da darussa masu sassaucin ra'ayi, tsakanin kwararrun masana tattalin arziki, a yanzu an yi imani da cewa kusan kowace matsala ta al'umma tana da hanyar fasaha, ta sama-sama.
Wannan sauyi na tattalin arziki yana da ban mamaki. Halayen masana tattalin arziki a yau ya sha bamban da zamanin da masanin tarihi Thomas Carlyle farmaki Wannan sana'a a matsayin "kimiyya mara kyau." Koken nasa shi ne masana tattalin arziki na zamaninsa suna goyon bayan ’yancin mutum da yawa, maimakon tsarin da ya fi so wanda masu hikima da masu mulki za su gudanar da kowane fanni na rayuwar al’ummar da ake zargin cewa ba su da wata matsala.
Wannan tsarin fasaha na sana'ar tattalin arziki yana bayyana a cikin ci gabamuhawara tsakanin masana tattalin arziki akan wane kwatancen ƙwararru ya fi ɗaukar aikin masana tattalin arzikin zamani. Injiniya, masanin kimiyya, likitan hakori, likitan tiyata, makanikin mota, mai aikin famfo, da kuma ƴan kwangila na gaba ɗaya suna cikin yawancin kwatankwacin da masana tattalin arziki suka gabatar don bayyana abin da ya kamata masana tattalin arziki su yi. Kowanne ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan kwatancen ya sami barata bisa ga ikon masana tattalin arziki na zamani na bayar da mafita ta fasaha ga kusan kowace matsala ta al'umma.
Muna kallon rawar da masana tattalin arziki ke takawa wajen tafiyar da rayuwar ƴan ƙasa a matsayin mafi ƙanƙanta. Matsayin mai aikin lambu ya fi dacewa da masana tattalin arziki fiye da, a ce, aikin injiniya ko mai aikin famfo. Kayayyakin aiki da ilimin da sana'ar mu ta ɓullo ba su isa ba don tabbatar da tunanin cewa ya kamata mu masana tattalin arziki mu yi ƙoƙarin gyara duk wasu matsalolin da ke cikin al'ummarmu, tare da yin amfani da hanyoyin fasaha kamar yadda injiniyoyi da masu aikin famfo suke yi. Kamar yadda masu aikin lambu ke taimaka wa lambuna su bunƙasa, mu ma masana tattalin arziki ya kamata mu tsaya kan tunanin hanyoyin da za mu taimaka wa ɗaiɗaikun mutane da tattalin arziƙin su ci gaba maimakon samar da duk hanyoyin da suka haɗa da abin da ya kamata mutane da kamfanoni su yi.
Masana tattalin arziki sun kuma ba jama'a mamaki game da halin da suke ciki game da halin da kananan 'yan kasuwa ke ciki, wadanda kulle-kulle suka lalata. Babban tsarin sana'a ya dogara ne akan kyawawan halaye na gasa. Amma duk da haka babban abin mamakin masana tattalin arziki game da tsananin tursasawa da ƙananan 'yan kasuwa ke fuskanta yayin kulle-kulle da alama shine ko rufewar za ta yi tasirin "tsaftacewa" ta hanyar kawar da mafi munin kamfanoni da farko. Abin takaicin mutane da yawa, kimiyyar da ba ta da kyau ba ta da ɗan faɗi game da yadda kulle-kulle suka fifita manyan kasuwanci da kuma abin da wannan zai nufi ga gasar kasuwa da jin daɗin masu amfani a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.
Rashin son masana tattalin arziki na kalubalantar manufofin da ke tallafawa manyan 'yan kasuwa abu ne mai nadama amma ana iya fahimta. Ƙarawa, mu masana tattalin arziki muna aiki don manyan kasuwanci-kattai na dijital musamman. Muna aika ɗalibanmu don yin aiki don Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter, da Google, kuma muna ƙidaya shi babban nasara lokacin da suka sami aiki tare da waɗannan manyan kamfanoni. Kasancewa mai kyau tare da waɗannan kamfanoni yana da mahimmanci kuma saboda bayanan waɗannan kamfanoni da albarkatun lissafi. Dukansu yanzu suna da mahimmanci don nasarar wallafe-wallafe da kuma haɗin gwiwar ci gaban aiki a fannin tattalin arziki. Rare shi ne masanin tattalin arziki wanda ke da kariya daga ikon da manyan ’yan kasuwa ke amfani da su a cikin sana’ar tattalin arziki.
Hanyar Gaba
Don dawo da martabarta, dole ne sana'ar tattalin arziki ta sake tunani akan kimarta. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan da yawa yana da kasance rubuta game da da kara mayar da hankali kan hanyoyin da manyan bayanai a cikin tattalin arziki a cikin kuɗin da ake amfani da su na ka'idar da ƙwarewa. Kamar yadda dabaru da aikace-aikace masu amfani suka mamaye wannan sana'a, tattalin arziki ya zama mai tsayayye ko watakila ma koma bayan horo a cikin fahimtar sa-hannun ciniki na tattalin arziki wanda a da ya kunshi jigon horar da tattalin arziki. Kwararrun masana tattalin arziki nawa ne har yanzu suka yarda da sanannen ma'anar Lionel Robbins, "Tattalin Arziki shine kimiyyar da ke nazarin halayen ɗan adam a matsayin dangantaka tsakanin ƙarewa da ƙarancin albarkatu waɗanda ke da madadin amfani"? Nawa ne daga cikin ayyukan masana tattalin arziki na yau da ke amfani da wannan manufa da kyau?
Wannan yunƙurin ba shakka wani ɓangare ne na zargi ga ɓarnatar da sana'ar ta kulle-kulle. Bayar da fifiko kan hanyoyin ƙididdigewa a cikin aikin ƙwaƙƙwara ya sa masana tattalin arziki ba su saba da tattalin arzikin kanta ba, yanayin da ke faruwa. ƙara cire haɗin gwiwa tsakanin tsinkaya da ainihin madaidaicin tsarin ƙirar masana tattalin arziki ya ƙaru. Masana tattalin arziki sun damu da mafi kyawun cikakkun bayanai na fasaha na nazari na zahiri da dabaru na cikin gida na ƙirar ka'idoji zuwa matakin da ya makantar da yawancin sana'ar daga babban hoto. Abin takaici, ba tare da fahimtar babban hoto ba, samun ƙananan cikakkun bayanai daidai ba shi da amfani kaɗan.
Shahararrun masana tattalin arziki ba su sami albarka da tawali'u mai yawa ba da alama kuma sun taka rawa a cikin gaggawar hawan sana'ar don cimma yarjejeniya kan kulle-kulle. Masana tattalin arziki sun nuna ƙarancin sha'awar bincika iyakoki da fa'idodi da yawa da ke tattare da nazarin kulle-kullen sana'a duk da cewa waɗannan binciken galibi mutane ne waɗanda ba su da ƙarancin horo ko kuma sha'awar cututtukan cututtukan cuta ko lafiyar jama'a, kuma duk da cewa waɗannan nazarin sun yi aiki don tallafawa mafi yawan manufofin gwamnati a cikin tsararraki. Masana tattalin arziki ba su kula da cututtukan cututtukan da suka gabata ba gargadi game da buƙatar zama mai tawali'u sosai yayin haɗa haske daga samfuri zuwa haƙiƙanin gaskiyar mu.
Gaskiyar cewa damuwar masana tattalin arziki ga matalauta ta ɓace da sauri a cikin bazara na 2020 kuma yana magana game da rashin tausayi. Domin galibin masana tattalin arziki suna samun albarkar kuɗin shiga da ke sanya mu a cikin aji na sama ko mafi girma, mu (tare da wasu, ba shakka) rayuwar da galibi ba ta da alaƙa da matalauta a cikin ƙasarmu, ƙasa da ƙasa a cikin ƙasashe masu tasowa. Saboda wannan katsewar, yana da wahala masana tattalin arziki su fahimci yadda matalauta da ke kusa da su a cikin ƙasashe masu arziki da na duniya za su fuskanci da kuma mayar da martani ga kulle-kulle.
Yakamata tattalin arziki ya sake karfafa kansa tare da mai da hankali kan cudanya da rayuwar talakawa a kasashe masu arziki da na duniya baki daya. Horo a cikin sana'a ya kamata ya jaddada darajar tausayi da tawali'u a kan fasaha da ma ka'ida. Yakamata masu sana'ar tattalin arziki su nuna tausayawa da tawali'u a matsayin alamomin masanin tattalin arziki.
Gyaran tattalin arziki zai haifar da babban sakamako ta hanyar amincewa da jama'a kan shawarwarin da masana tattalin arziki ke bayarwa game da manufofin, amma ba zai kasance mai sauƙi ba. Canza darajar sana'a na buƙatar ci gaba da ƙoƙari da kuma irin haƙurin da sana'ar ta rasa yayin da take gaggawar kare kulle-kulle.
Dangane da sake tantance illolin kulle-kulle, akwai dalili na kyakkyawan fata. Tattalin Arziki ya yi aiki da kyau a duniya lokacin da ya kare tsarin tattalin arzikin duniya a cikin shekaru da dama da suka gabata a kan cewa ci gaban tattalin arziki yana taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen ciyar da jin dadin mutanen da suka fi rauni a duniya. Cewa wannan ya faru kwanan nan yana ba da fata cewa nan ba da jimawa ba masana tattalin arziki za su dawo da sha'awar rayuwar matalautan duniya.
Maimakon a ɓoye a bayan imanin ƙaryar cewa kulle-kulle abincin rana ne na kyauta, yana da mahimmanci cewa nan ba da jimawa ba masana tattalin arziki su kimanta tasirin duniya na kulle-kullen ƙasashe masu arziki. Ingantacciyar fahimtar tasirin kulle-kullen mu na duniya zai sauƙaƙe samun ƙarin martanin COVID na jin kai a cikin ƙasashe masu arziki, da kuma mafi kyawun martani ga annoba ta gaba - irin martanin da ke darajar yadda martaninmu a cikin ƙasashe masu arziki ke tasiri sakamakon tattalin arziki da lafiya a sassan duniya masu ƙarancin wadata.
Hakanan yana da mahimmanci cewa masana tattalin arziƙi nan ba da jimawa ba su bincika kuma su tantance tare da ƙarfi radadin cikin gida da ke haifar da kulle-kulle, rufe makarantu, da sauran ƙuntatawa na COVID. Takaddun abubuwan da suka fi girma da ƙasƙanci a cikin al'umma, bayan haka, babban aikin sana'a ne. Tattalin Arziki na iya rashin iyawa don yin watsi da wannan muhimmin manufa fiye da haka.
Sake bugawa Alamar Duniya
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Mikko Packalen mataimakin farfesa ne a fannin tattalin arziki a Jami'ar Waterloo.
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Dr. Jay Bhattacharya likita ne, likitan dabbobi kuma masanin tattalin arziki. Shi Farfesa ne a Makarantar Kiwon Lafiya ta Stanford, Mataimakin Bincike a Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Kasa, Babban Babban Jami'in Cibiyar Nazarin Manufofin Tattalin Arziki na Stanford, Memba na Faculty a Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute, da Fellow a Kwalejin Kimiyya da 'Yanci. Binciken nasa ya mayar da hankali ne kan tattalin arziki na kiwon lafiya a duniya tare da kulawa ta musamman kan lafiya da jin dadin jama'a masu rauni. Co-Marubucin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington.
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