part 1
Jumma'ar da ta gabata 'yan caca na Wall Street sun sake yin wani gudu a "labari mara kyau labari ne mai kyau", suna ɗaukar matsakaicin matsakaicin matsakaici bayan tseren frenetic a kusa da sito da baya. Amma a ƙarshen rana, lokaci ya yi da za a manta game da wasannin da ’yan kasuwa na ranar Wall Street ke buga kuma ku gane cewa munanan labaran tattalin arziƙi shine kawai-mugun labari.
Babban abin da ba daidai ba a cikin rahoton ayyuka na Oktoba shi ne ƙaramin haɓakar rashin aikin yi zuwa 3.7% daga 3.5% a cikin Satumba. Wannan ya kamata yana nufin cewa tattalin arzikin yana yin sanyi kuma Fed na iya sauƙaƙe kan yaƙin neman zaɓe.
Amma, kamar yadda muka sha faɗa, yawan rashin aikin yi na U-3 bai cancanci takardar da aka buga a kai ba. Duk da haka, wannan ba ya ƙara da cewa ainihin mummunan labari a cikin rahoton ayyuka na Oktoba, wanda mummunan labari ya bazu a ko'ina cikin cikin rahoton. Gabaɗayan rahoton, a zahiri, ya kasance ƙarin shaida ne kawai da ke nuna cewa kasuwar ƙwadago ba ta da ƙarfi, ba ta da ƙarfi, kuma tattalin arzikin Amurka ya shiga cikin wani mawuyacin hali.
Abu ɗaya, adadin rashin aikin yi na U-3, wanda aka ƙididdige shi daga binciken gida, ya sanya mafi girma saboda karuwar 306,000 na yawan marasa aikin yi, yayin da adadin ma'aikatan da ke aiki a zahiri ya ragu da 328,000.
Haka ne. Schrodinger's Cat a BLS ya ce ayyukan sun kasance + 261,000 bisa ga binciken kafa, yayin da binciken gida ya buga abin da aka ambata -328,000.
Tabbas, idan wannan ya kasance kawai ɓarna na wata ɗaya, zai dace a bar shi ya wuce. Amma a zahiri, tun daga watan Maris, binciken biyu ke tafiya ta sabanin hanya: Binciken kafa, wanda ke ciyar da kai tsaye cikin algos, ya tashi ta hanyar. 2.45 miliyan ayyuka.
A lokaci guda, ƙidayar binciken gida ya ƙaru da adalci 150,000 ayyuka. Haka ne 94% kasa!
Haka kuma, idan kun sake komawa baya zuwa kololuwar pre-Covid a cikin Fabrairu 2020, cire haɗin haɗin ya ma fi muni. Don sanin, adadin aikin binciken gida miliyan 158.61 da aka buga a watan Oktoba shine ainihin 258,000 kasa fiye da yadda yake a gaban Lockdowns, yayin da adadin binciken kafa ya kasance 804,000 mafi girma.
Tabbas, ba lambar ba wani abu ne da za a rubuta a gida game da shi, amma rashin daidaituwar bai ƙunshi wani babban asiri ba. Abin da ke faruwa shi ne mutane suna ɗaukar ayyuka da yawa don kasancewa da masaniya game da hauhawar tsadar rayuwa, haka kuma saboda aiki-daga-gida ya sauƙaƙa wa masu aikin lanƙwasa kyauta da ma'aikatan gig-musamman a ɓangaren fasaha - don haɗa kansu zuwa biyu, uku ko ma huɗu na albashin ma'aikata. Waɗannan duka suna ƙididdige su azaman “ayyukan yi” a cikin binciken kafa, amma ba a cikin binciken gida ba.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, aiki na biyu ko na uku wanda ya ƙunshi sa'o'i 5 na aikin kama-da-wane a kowane mako yana zagi wasu ma'aikatan HR na ma'aikata marasa hankali ba abu ɗaya bane da ayyukan gargajiya a cikin sa'o'i 40 na ainihin aiki akan wurin aiki. Na farko shine ƙarin misali ɗaya kawai na hayaniyar a cikin bayanan da ke haifar da ƙima fiye da kima na ainihin kasuwar aiki ta Amurka.
Matsayin Aiki: Binciken Gida (layi mai ruwan hoda) Tare da Binciken Kafa (layin launin ruwan kasa), Fabrairu 2020 zuwa Oktoba 2022
A kowane hali, shi ya sa muke samun jimillar sa'o'i index da BLS ta buga don zama mafi fa'ida a cikin yawancin munanan abubuwan da take ɗauka akan kasuwar aiki. Aƙalla baya rikitar da gig na ɗan lokaci tare da cikakken aikin yi ko ƙididdige aikin na huɗu da wani (tsohon) mai tsarawa ke riƙe a Twitter azaman shaida na kasuwar aiki “ƙarfi”.
A kan wannan, ga abin da muka samu a zahiri bayan Maris-Maris 2020 stimmy-paloozas lokacin da bashin jama'a ya karu da dala tiriliyan 4.5 kuma ma'auni na Fed ya tashi daga dala tiriliyan 4 zuwa dala tiriliyan 9. Don sanin, jimlar sa'o'in ma'aikata da ke aiki a kamfanoni masu zaman kansu sun ƙaru kaɗan kaɗan a cikin wannan watanni 32. Don zama daidai, ribar da aka samu a cikin sa'o'in da aka yi aiki daidai ne 0.4% kowace shekara.
Fihirisar Tara Sa'o'in Mako-mako don Sana'a Masu zaman kansu, Janairu 2020 zuwa Oktoba 2022
An bayyana daban-daban, rahoton ayyukan Oktoba ya bayyana a fili cewa kasuwar aiki da ake kira "karfi" tana tsayawa, kuma ta kasance tsawon shekaru. Lamba fihirisa na Oktoba, a haƙiƙa, yana wakiltar samun anemia 0.78% a kowace shekara tun lokacin da aka yi fama da tashin hankali a watan Disamba na 2007. Wannan yana kwatanta, alal misali, da 2.00% Yawan karuwar sa'o'in aiki a kowace shekara tsakanin 1964 da 2000.
Don haka, idan 'yan jaridun kuɗi za su ba da rahoton bayanan da gaskiya, za su yi amfani da jimillar sa'o'i index don auna ainihin abubuwan da ake samu na aiki ga tattalin arzikin, ba ƙidayar ayyukan kanun labarai ba.. A cikin wannan taron, ba shakka, ba za mu sami irin ƙwararren masanin tattalin arziki da ya faru a ranar Juma'a ba, yana zargin wani rahoton ayyukan "ƙarfi":
Masanin tattalin arziki na Obama Betsey Stevenson: Ƙarfafan ayyuka suna ba da rahoton….yawan ɗaukar ma'aikata, faffadan tushe, da haɓaka albashi yana ɗan rage kaɗan. Fed kawai zai iya samun wannan saukowa mai laushi
Justin Wolfers, masanin ilimin Keynesian: Albashin da ba na noma ya karu da +261k a watan Oktoba, duk da haka wani wata na stellar aiki girma. Watanni biyu da suka gabata sun nuna bita na +52k na Satumba da -23k na Agusta, don haka wannan ma rahoto ne mai ƙarfi. Adadin rashin aikin yi ya karu zuwa 3.7%.Wannan tattalin arziki mai karfi ne.
Da gaske? Haɓaka aikin yi na gaskiya (watau jimlar sa'o'in da aka yi aiki) a cikin shekaru 15 da suka gabata ya karu da kashi biyu cikin biyar na matsakaicin tarihi, amma waɗannan kuliyoyi suna ci gaba da tsammanin kalmar "ƙarfi".
Fihirisar Tara Sa'o'i, 1964-2022
Haka kuma, idan aka zo batun albashi mai yawa, manyan ayyuka masu yawa a fannin samar da kayayyaki (ƙira, makamashi, hakar ma'adinai da kayan aiki) bayanan sun fi zama marasa tabbas. Ma'auni na jimillar sa'o'i ma'aikata a fannin samar da kayayyaki har yanzu ya kusa 0.6% kasa Pre-Covid kololuwa a cikin Janairu 2019.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, wannan babban al'amari ne saboda ɓangaren da ke samar da kyakkyawan aiki yana ɗaukar miliyan 21.3 a matsakaicin albashin shekara na $ 68,300. A dunkule, adadin albashin sashen na shekara ya kai $ 1.46 tiriliyan.
Kamar yadda muka sha lura akai-akai, sabili da haka, abin da muke da shi shine tsarin watanni 30 na ayyukan sake haihuwa. Bayan zurfin zurfafawar Afrilu 2020 wanda Cibiyar Kula da Cututtuka ta ba da umarnin, sa'o'in ma'aikata da ke aiki a sashin samar da kayayyaki har yanzu ba su koma murabba'i ɗaya ba.
Bugu da ƙari, idan ya zo ga yanayin dogon lokaci, hoton yana da mummunar bala'i. Idan aka kwatanta da farkon ƙarni na Janairu 2000, jimlar sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a fannin samar da kyau sun ragu. 16.3% daga Oktoba 2022.
Ta yaya kowa a cikin tunaninsa na gaskiya zai kwatanta ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa a matsayin kasuwar aiki na "ƙarfi" ya wuce mu. Abin da yake nunawa da gaske shi ne cewa nomenklatura na kiwon lafiyar jama'a na Washington ya murkushe bangaren samar da tattalin arzikin Amurka, tare da barin kamfanoni masu zaman kansu su yi fafutuka don dawo da martabar da ta ke, wacce da kanta ke kan kudu sama da shekaru ashirin.
Fihirisar Tarar Sa'o'i da Aka Yi Aiki A Sashin Samar da Kaya, Janairu 2000 zuwa Oktoba 2022
Haka kuma bangaren samar da kayayyaki ba wani abu bane. A ɗayan ƙarshen bakan biyan kuɗi, ƙididdiga na sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a cikin sashin shakatawa & baƙo mai ƙarancin biya a cikin Oktoba an buga. 7.8% kasa darajar Fabrairu 2020. Wannan kusan dala biliyan 40 ne na albashin shekara-shekara wanda har yanzu ba a rasa ba.
Haka ne. Bala'in Lockdown a cikin bazara na 2020 ya yi muni sosai wanda sa'o'i suka yi aiki a sashin 56%!
Tun daga wannan lokacin ne fannin ke tonowa daga rami mai zurfi wanda babu wani abin tarihi a ko'ina a cikin bayanan ayyukan tarihi. Amma duk da haka bayan an dawo da duk waɗannan sa'o'in da aka sake haifuwa, index ɗin har yanzu yana kusan kashi ɗaya bisa takwas a ƙasa da matakin kulle-kulle.
An bayyana ta daban, ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa ba shi da alaƙa da kasuwar ƙwadago ta “ƙarfi”, duk da cewa ’yan bindigar Wall Street sun sake dawo da kowane ɗayan ayyukan da aka samu tun watan Afrilun 2020. Abin da ya nuna a zahiri shi ne tashin hankalin da masu sa ido kan ƙwayoyin cuta suka haifar, tare da gwagwarmayar matsananciyar wahala da kamfanoni masu zaman kansu suka yi don dawo da martabarta.
Fihirisar Tara Sa'o'i Aiki a Sashin Nishaɗi & Baƙi, Fabrairu 2020 zuwa Oktoba 2022
Kamar yadda ya faru, labarin daya ne a bangaren gine-gine masu yawa. Jimlar sa'o'in da aka yi aiki a watan Oktoba sun kasance kawai smidgen (+0.26%) sama da kololuwar pre-Covid na Fabrairu 2020. Mafi mahimmanci, alamar Oktoba ta kasance har yanzu 3.0% kasa matakin ya koma baya a cikin Disamba 2006, ma'ana cewa wannan fannin na kasuwar ƙwadago ya ɗan ɗanɗana ɗan lokaci kaɗan.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, babu wata hanyar da za a iya kwatanta jadawali da ke ƙasa a matsayin shaida na “ƙarfi” kasuwar ƙwadago lokacin da aka sami ƙarancin sa'o'in gini da aka yi aiki a cikin Oktoba fiye da shekaru 16 da suka gabata.
Abin da ya faru a nan, kamar a sauran sassa na kasuwar kwadago, shi ne, Sintirin Virus ya haifar da barna 20% Rushe cikin sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a watan Afrilun 2020. Ayyukan da aka sake haifuwa da sa'o'i da aka bayar kowane wata tun daga wannan lokacin ba komai bane illa wani babban aiki na ganowa da kamfanoni masu zaman kansu.
Fihirisar Tara Sa'o'i A Sashin Gina, Janairu 2020 zuwa Oktoba 2022
Wani bangaren da ake biyan albashi mai tsoka wanda sa'o'i suka dade suna tafiya kudu shine bangaren masu amfani. Jimlar sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a watan Oktoba har yanzu sun yi kusan ƙasa 2% daga matakin pre-Covid na Fabrairu 2020.
Mafi mahimmanci, waccan ita ce ƙarshen tattakin da aka yi a ƙasa wanda aka kwashe shekaru talatin ana yi. Saboda haka, an tura kasuwar ƙwadago ta “ƙarfi” na Oktoba 2022 24% ƙasa da sa'as fiye da yadda lamarin ya kasance a farkon 1990.
Fihirisar Tara Sa'o'i Don Sashin Amfani, 1990 zuwa 2022
A cikin sashin tallace-tallace, sa'o'i sun yi aiki kololuwa watanni 53 da suka gabata a cikin Mayu 2018. Duk da sake dawowa daga faduwar kashi 17% a cikin Afrilu 2020, ƙididdigar sa'o'i na Oktoba don dillali ya kasance har yanzu. 1% kasa kololuwar sa shekaru hudu da suka gabata.
Bugu da ƙari, babu wani dalilin da za a bi da ayyukan sake haihuwa da sa'o'i a matsayin kasuwar aiki "ci gaba". Kuma tabbas, lokacin da aikin ya haɓaka bisa ga yanayin shekaru 22 da suka gabata, ra'ayin cewa rahoton Oktoba ya ci amanar ƙarfi tommyrot ne kawai.
Amma duk da haka lambobin ba su karya. A cikin Janairu 2001, index na jimlar sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a cikin dillalai da aka buga a 102.0 idan aka kwatanta da 103.4 a cikin Oktoba 2022. Lissafin shi, don haka, shi ne a kowace shekara girma adadin na 0.06%, idan kuna son yin la'akari da kurakuran zagaye.
Fihirisar Tara Sa'o'i Aiki a Sashin Kasuwanci, Janairu 2001 zuwa Oktoba 2022
Wani sashin layi na layi shine sabis na kuɗi da gidaje. A cikin Oktoba, jimillar jimlar sa'o'i a haƙiƙa tana ƙasa da matakinta na Afrilun da ya gabata kuma tana nan 1% kasa fiye da inda aka buga a watan Fabrairu 2020.
Haka nan kuma bai kamata a ce muhimmancin wannan ci-gaban ba. Bayan haka, an sami bunƙasa ta zahiri a kasuwannin hada-hadar kuɗi da gidaje a cikin shekaru biyu da rabi da suka gabata, duk da haka aikin yana da layi.
Don haka babu "karfi" kasuwar aiki a nan, ko dai.
Fihirisar Ƙirar Jima'i a cikin Sashin Kuɗi da Kasuwanci, Janairu 2020- Oktoba 2022
Hatta bangaren ilimi da kiwon lafiya da a da ya samu ci gaba. Kididdigar jimlar sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a cikin Oktoba 2022 tana wakiltar ƙimar girma a kowace shekara ta daidai. 0.15%idan aka kwatanta da Fabrairu 2020.
Kamar yadda ya bayyana daga ginshiƙi, muna ma'amala a nan tare da sa'o'in sake haihuwa, haka nan. Indexididdigar ta faɗi da 13.3% a cikin Afrilu 2020 bisa umarnin Hukumar Kula da Cututtuka. Saboda haka, 97% na yawan sa'o'in da aka samu tun daga wannan lokacin an ƙididdige su ta hanyar dawo da sa'o'in da aka rasa ga Lockdowns, ba haɓakar kwayoyin halitta daga babban alamar ruwa na Fabrairu 2020 ba.
Don ma'anar tunani, ƙimar girma na shekaru 56 da ke ƙarewa a watan Fabrairu 2020 ya kasance 3.3% a kowace shekara-- matakin 22X sama da fiye da rabin karni. Don haka ko da a fannin fannin da ke da ƙarfi ta hanyar biyan kuɗin canja wurin gwamnati da zaɓin haraji, haɓakar aikin da aka auna ta sa'o'i da aka yi aiki ya ragu zuwa rarrafe.
Fihirisar Takaitaccen Sa'o'i Don Ilimi da Ayyukan Lafiya, Fabrairu 2020 zuwa Oktoba 2022
Tabbas, idan kun bincika bayanan don duk dozin ko wasu masana'antu daban-daban waɗanda BLS ke ba da jimillar sa'o'i index, biyu kawai sun nuna riba mai ma'ana a cikin Oktoba 2022 idan aka kwatanta da pre-Covid matakin na Fabrairu 2020. Jimillar sa'o'i index na sito da sufuri ya haura da 11.7%, kuma 6.4% na kasuwanci ya kasance mafi girma ga ƙwararrun sabis na Fabrairu. 2020.
Amma a cikin duka biyun muna ganin skunk yana zamewa tare da katako. Ingantacciyar ƙididdiga mafi girma a cikin kayan kasuwancin da Amazon ke bayarwa wani kayan tarihi ne mara ɗorewa na Lockdowns da manyan abubuwan ban sha'awa. Yanzu haka ya ƙare, ba shakka, amma yayin da ya daɗe an sami bunƙasar ɗaukar ma'aikata a cikin ɗakunan ajiya da sassan sufuri - haɓakar da ya haifar da wuce gona da iri. Saboda haka, lokacin da aka fara korar, layin shuɗi na ƙasa yana yiwuwa ya nufi kudu. Babban lokaci.
Hakanan, aikin-daga-gida ya mai da hankali sosai a cikin ƙwararru da ɓangaren kasuwanci. Amma manyan korafe-korafe na baya-bayan nan a bangaren fasaha, wanda aka kwatanta da kashe kashi 50% na ma’aikatan Twitter a makon da ya gabata da kuma kisan kiyashin da ke gabatowa a Facebook, yana ba da sanarwar ranar ƙididdigewa ga masu karɓar biyan kuɗi sau uku a gida.
Tabbas, fiye da daukar ma'aikata a wannan sashin, wanda ke da adadin miliyan 22.5 na ayyukan da ake biya mafi girma a Amurka, mai yiwuwa ya faru akan sikeli. Kuma yana nufin cewa layin launin ruwan kasa shima zai doshi kudu sosai cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Fihirisar Tara Sa'o'i don Sufuri da Ware Housing da Ƙwararru da Sabis na Kasuwanci, Fabrairu 2020 zuwa Oktoba 2022
A takaice dai, kasuwar kwadago ta yi nisa da karfi, kuma a zahiri tana nuna ci gaban sa'o'i kusan sifili a kan gaba daya tun bayan barkewar cutar Covid-2020 a watan Fabrairun XNUMX, baya ga biyun nan ba da jimawa ba za a iya jujjuya abubuwan da suka faru a sama. Don haka ra'ayin da aka samo asali na cewa tattalin arzikin Amurka yana da ƙarfi shine kawai poppycock.
part 2
Wani abin ban mamaki shine, tsarin raunin tsarin kasuwancin ƙwadago na Amurka da aka nuna a sama ya faru ne a cikin mahallin ɗimbin kuɗin buga kuɗin da manyan bankunan duniya ke yi, wanda ke tattare da ci gaban ma'auni na gama-gari. Daura da $ 4 tiriliyan a shekara ta 2002, haɗe-haɗen ma'auni na manyan bankunan duniya yanzu sun wuce fiye da haka $ 43 tiriliyan.
Babu wani abu makamancin haka a cikin tarihin da aka rubuta, amma bambancin tasirinsa ga tattalin arzikin duniya shine ɓacin ran abin da ke gaba. Wato, a yankuna masu tsadar guraben aiki kamar Amurka a cikin shekaru goma da suka wuce na buga kuɗaɗen bacchanalia ya haifar da babban koma baya na samar da masana'antu zuwa wuraren rahusa da China ke jagoranta. Hakanan, wannan ya haɓaka ƙwarewar abin da ya zama "ƙananan farashi" saboda yawan shigowar kayayyaki na ƙasashen waje masu arha.
A sa'i daya kuma, karuwar kudaden da ake samu a kasashen Sin, Vietnam, Mexico da sauran kasashe masu rahusa sun haifar da basusuka mai cike da zunzurutun kudi daga Littafi Mai Tsarki. Sakamakon ya kasance ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙarfin samarwa don hidimar Amurka, Turai da sauran masu amfani da duniya da suka ci gaba. Wato kasashen da suka ci gaba sun samu abin da ake ganin kamar lokaci ne na rashin ci gaba/rashin wadatuwa, yayin da kasashen da ba su ci gaba ba a baya suka samu karuwar basussuka na zuba jari da samar da masana'antu cikin sauri.
Tabbas, kiran tasirin tattalin arzikin Amurka "farashin kumbura na allo" da wuya yayi adalci ga kalmar. A cikin shekaru 25 bayan da kasar Sin ta zama cibiyar samar da wutar lantarki a cikin tsakiyar shekarun 1990, na'urar sarrafa kayayyakin da Amurka ta PCE ta yi wa kayyaki masu ɗorewa sun yi ƙasa da ƙasa.40%, yayin da PCE deflator don Sabis ya haɓaka ta+ 87%.
Amma duk da haka dangane da rashin hankali na Fed a kan "burin" hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na shekara-shekara, duk an gudanar da shi lafiya. Kada ka manta cewa Fed ya buge maƙasudinsa na 2.00% mai tsarki ne kawai saboda raguwar lokaci ɗaya da rashin dorewa a cikin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, wanda ya haifar da madaidaicin ma'aunin da aka fi so (PCE deflator) don zagaye ɗan ƙasa kaɗan (1.80%) manufa.
Canjin Fihirisar Shekara-shekara: 1995-2019
- Deflator Kaya Mai Dorewa: -2.00%;
- PCE Deflator: +2.56%;
- Gabaɗaya PCE Deflator: + 1.80%
Rarraba Kuɗi na allo: Gabaɗaya PCE Deflator Versus Durables Kayayyakin Deflator Da Sabis na Sabis, 1995-2019
Kuda a cikin maganin shafawa, ba shakka, wani gagarumin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ne a ko'ina - daga New York zuwa London, Mumbai da Shanghai. Amma muddin bashin babban bankin ya ci gaba da fadada, babban kumfa na kudi na duniya, da dala tiriliyan 260 na bashin da ya dogara a kai, sun sami damar ci gaba da tafiya.
Babu kuma. A yanzu dai za a bukaci Fed da sauran manyan bankunan kasar da su kai hari ba tare da kakkautawa ba a kan kumfa na kudi na duniya da suka kirkira domin dakile hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ayyuka da ke tashe tashen hankula.
Kamar yadda ya kasance, babban, sarkar samar da kayayyaki a duniya koyaushe yana da rauni sosai kuma ba za a iya dorewa ba, musamman ta fuskar tarzoma. Waɗancan sun zo ne bayan 2019 ta hanyar Covid Lockdowns, ɗimbin kashe kuɗin gwamnati na duniya sannan kuma Yaƙin Takunkumin Washington kan kasuwannin kayayyaki na duniya da biyan kuɗi da tsarin ciniki.
Daga cikin wasu abubuwa, wannan ya sa zamanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ɓace cikin dare. Tun daga watan Disamba na 2019, ba a sami wani kiba ga hauhawar farashin sabis na cikin gida daga sashin kayayyaki. Dukansu masu ɗorewa da ɗorewa kayan deflators sun tashi a ƙimar da ba a gani ba tun farkon shekarun 1980, yana haifar da haɓakar PCE gabaɗaya zuwa fiye da ninki biyu.
A zahiri, masu ɓarna sabis (layin launin ruwan kasa) yana ƙaruwa da 3.73% a kowace shekara tun Q4 2019 yanzu shine raguwa, tare da kayayyaki masu ɗorewa (layin shuɗi) da kayayyaki marasa ƙarfi (layin rawaya) suna jan jimillar PCE deflator index (layin baƙar fata) sosai.
Canjin Fihirisar kowace Shekara Tun Q4 2019:
- PCE Deflator Sabis: 3.73%;
- PCE Deflator don Kaya Masu Dorewa: 4.58%;
- PCE Deflator don Kayayyakin da Ba Su Dawwama: 5.21%;
- Gabaɗaya PCE Deflator: 4.20%
PCE Deflator da Abubuwan da aka gyara, Q4 2019 Zuwa Q3 2022
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, Fed yanzu ya kama sama kuma ya bushe. The wucin gadi "lowflation" daga cikin kayayyakin da aka gama da kuma aikata. Idan wani abu, ci gaba da bayyana sarkar samar da kayayyaki a duniya zai haifar da koma baya ga faduwar faduwar farashin kayayyaki a shekarar 1995-2019, yayin da ake mayar da samar da kayayyaki zuwa wuraren da ake sayar da kayayyaki a cikin gida. Kuma idan neocons suka ci gaba da samun hanyarsu a Washington, yakin neman zabe a kan Rasha zai karu, wanda zai haifar da sabon rugujewar lalacewa a kasuwannin kayayyaki.
Har ila yau, yana nufin cewa "pivot" da aka yi watsi da Fed don kubutar da kumfa na kudi kawai ba zai faru ba. Ƙaddamar da kayayyaki, ayyuka da hauhawar farashin aiki ya yi ƙarfi sosai don Ginin Eccles ya juya hanya. Bugu da ƙari, fenti na Fed's absolutist fenti-by-ƙididdigar lambobi don komawa zuwa ga tsattsauran ra'ayi na 2.00% na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kawai zai tsawaita Babban Rashin Kuɗi a yanzu yana saukowa kan pike.
Abin da masana tattalin arziki na tallace-tallace ba su samu ba shine cewa ciniki na Keynesian Phillips Curve tsakanin aiki da hauhawar farashin kaya bai taɓa yin tasiri ba tun farko; da kuma cewa babban rugujewar ayyukan tattalin arziƙi na baya-bayan nan sakamakon Lockdowns da ƙwaƙƙwaran na nufin cewa wuraren bayanan gwamnati na yanzu ba su yi kama da yanayin kasuwancin da suka gabata ba.
Game da na karshen, yawan shiga aikin ƙwadago ya kasance kololuwa yayin da tsarin kasuwancin ya kai abin da ake kira cikakken aiki, yana nuna gaskiyar cewa an jawo sa'o'in ƙarin ayyukan aiki zuwa ga samun aiki mai fa'ida. Wannan ya bayyana a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa don 1990, 2001, 2008-09 da 2020 kafin koma bayan tattalin arziki, kuma lamari ne na sihiri-gefen wadata a wurin aiki.
Wato, zana ƙarin albarkatun aiki a cikin tattalin arzikin da aka samu kuɗi ba shi da tsadar gaske. Haɓakawa daga ƙarshe ta fito ne daga mummunan kuɗi, ba mutane da yawa da ke aiki ba.
Hakazalika, asarar albarkatun ma'aikata daga tattalin arzikin da aka samu ba shi da tushe ba, ko dai, idan an maye gurbin kudaden shiga na aiki da aka yi a baya tare da biyan kuɗin canja wuri da kuma cire kudaden ajiyar da ake ciki.
Kuma a nan ne muke a yanzu. Mun sami ɗimbin ɗimbin ɗimbin ƙwaƙƙwaran kasafin kuɗi da na kuɗi, amma ƙimar haƙƙin ma'aikata har yanzu yana kan zurfi, ƙarancin zamani. Wannan saboda “buƙatar” kashe-kashen wucin gadi da Washington ta samar an yi watsi da su ta hanyar tallafin kasafin kuɗi don rashin samarwa da kuma rashin aikin da jihar ke tallafawa. Ba a sami mai yawa mai kara kuzari!
A cikin wannan mahallin, ya kamata a lura cewa mun fara jadawalin da ke ƙasa a cikin 1990 don kyakkyawan dalili. Shekaru 40 da suka gabata ba su misaltuwa saboda haɓakar rabon lokaci guda a tsakanin 1950-1990 yayin da mata suka shiga cikin ma'aikata da yawa (saɓanin na gida).
A kowane hali, ba ku da kasuwar ƙwadago ta “ƙarfi” lokacin da aka sami wani yanayi na duniya game da rage yawan shiga aikin ma’aikata tun daga shekara ta 2000. A zahiri, jimillar manufofin Washington --kulle-kulle, tsoron tsoron Covid-XNUMX da abubuwan da ba a taɓa gani ba—ya kasance bangaren hana samar da kayayyaki.
Matsakaicin Halartar Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararru:
- Janairu 1990: 66.8%;
- Fabrairu 2000: 67.3%;
- Disamba 2006: 66.4%;
- Fabrairu 2020: 63.4%;
- Satumba 2022: 62.3%.
Yawan Halartar Ƙwararrun Ƙwararru, 1990-2022
Rushewar adadin shiga aikin ma'aikata tun daga shekara ta 2000 ba ƙaramin abu bane. Yana nuna daidai da 13.2 miliyan ma'aikatan da suka bar aikin aiki saboda ritaya, nakasa, Medicaid, tambarin abinci, wasu nau'ikan tallafi na Jiha ko kuma, a cikin yanayin wasu millennials, rayuwa mai daɗi a cikin ginshiƙin mahaifiya da uba.
Ko ta yaya, bangaren samar da kayan aiki da kasuwar kwadago ke wakilta ya ragu sosai, duk da cewa bukatar da gwamnati ta yi ya yi yawa fiye da yadda aka saba yi a baya. Abin da ke faruwa, ba shakka, shine Stagflation mai tsadar aiki.
Kuma don shakkun cewa an gina ƙimar farashin albashi a yanzu, a nan ne ƙimar albashin sa'a ɗaya akan Y/Y daga manyan sassan kasuwannin aiki kamar yadda aka buga a cikin rahoton ayyukan Oktoba.
Canjin Y/Y a Matsakaicin Matsakaicin Ma'aikata na Sa'a:
- Waje & Sufuri: +8.5%;
- Nishaɗi & Baƙi: +7.1%;
- Gina: + 6.6%;
- Abubuwan amfani: + 6.4%;
- Ayyukan Kuɗi: + 6.0%;
- Abubuwan da ake samarwa: + 5.7%;
- Jumla: + 5.4%;
- Lafiya & Ilimi: +5.3%;
- Kasuwanci & Sabis na Ƙwararru: + 5.1%;
- Jimlar Aiki Masu zaman kansu: + 5.5%.
A cikin Sashe na 3 za mu bi diddigin yadda hauhawar albashi da matsin lamba don “kamawa” ya karu daga hauhawar farashin rayuwa da aka rigaya za a iya ci gaba da haɓaka hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zuwa wurare da yawa masu zuwa. A zahiri, aikin da ba shi da aiki wanda ya kamata a samar da shi ta hanyar ƙarfafa Fed an riga an cire shi daga cikin ma'aikata ta hanyar Sintirin Cutar da kuma haɓakar “ajiye” daga shekaru biyu na gwamnati ta haɓaka-gida-gida da ƙiyayya.
part 3
A halin da ake ciki, ana bukatar a nanata cewa a kan ci gaba da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba zai dogara ga hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kadai ba. Wannan saboda abin da ake kira hadadden abinci da makamashi ba ya yin sanyi da sauri kamar yadda masana Wall Street za su so ku yi imani.
Kamar yadda ya faru, sassan kayan amfani na farashin makamashi-wanda wutar lantarki da iskar gas ke wakilta—ba su yi sanyi ba kwata-kwata. Kudin wutar lantarkin gida ya riga ya tashi 15.5% daga shekarar da ta gabata, yayin da CPI na iskar gas da ake amfani da shi don dumama gida da dafa abinci shine 33% sama da na bara. Bugu da ƙari, babu wani layi a cikin ginshiƙi yana lanƙwasa sosai a cikin 'yan watannin nan.
Canjin Y/Y A Cikin Kuɗin Kuɗi na Wutar Lantarki da Bututun Gas, 2017 zuwa 2022
Hakazalika, duka sassan ma'aunin abinci har yanzu suna tashi a cikin wani faifan bidiyo mai ban tsoro: Idan aka kwatanta da shekara guda da ta gabata, abinci baya zama gida (misali gidajen cin abinci) 8.5% a watan Satumba, yayin da farashin kantin kayan miya ya fi girma da 13.0%. Kuma duka layukan biyu suna nuna hawan tsaye wanda ke nuna alamun raguwa a cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Kamar yadda ya faru, waɗannan asusun abinci akan tsarin haɗin gwiwa suna wakiltar 13.65% na nauyi a cikin CPI, kuma sun kasance sama 11.29% akan matsakaicin nauyi a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Wannan shine haɓaka mafi girma na shekara-shekara a cikin shekaru 43 (Mayu 1979)!
Canjin Y/Y A cikin Abubuwan CPI Don Abinci Daga Gida Da Shagunan Kayan Abinci, 2017-2022
Bangaren abinci da makamashi wanda a zahiri ya kasance mai sanyaya shi ne jigilar man fetur da dumama mai, wanda ke lissafin daidai. 4.57% Babban darajar CPI. Yayin da yawan canjin Y / Y (layin blue) ya kasance 19.7% a watan Satumba, yawan canjin wata-wata (layin launin ruwan kasa) ya kasance mara kyau na tsawon watanni uku yana gudana, yana kawo yanayin Y / Y da ƙananan ƙananan, duk da cewa daga-na-wannan-duniya 61% Y / Y samu a watan Yuni.
Haka kuma, tun tsakiyar watan Satumba matsakaicin farashin mai na kasa ya daidaita akan dala 3.80 kan galan daya, yayin da farashin man dizal da na jet ke ci gaba da hauhawa. Farashin dizal na dizal a halin yanzu a $5.33 akan galan ya haura 6% daga tsakiyar watan Satumba (lokacin da aka ɗauki CPI na ƙarshe) da 49% daga farashin shekara da ta gabata.
Don haka yayin da a bayyane yake cewa farashin man fetur na tushen man fetur yana fitowa daga ƙarshen bazara, ribar 19.7% Y/Y da aka nuna a ƙasa ba daidai ba ne na raguwa. Hakan zai kasance musamman a watanni masu zuwa idan matsakaicin farashin man fetur ya ci gaba da hauhawa tare da sake farfado da farashin man fetur a matsayin martani ga karin raguwar man da Rasha ke yi a kasuwannin duniya bayan cikakken dokar hana shigo da ruwa daga teku a Turai ya fara aiki a farkon watan Disamba.
CPI Don Kayayyakin Makamashi: Canjin Y/Y (Layin Shuɗi) Tare da Canjin Wata-Kasa-Wata (Layin Ja), Mayu 2020 zuwa Satumba 2022
A bisa ga duka-duka, sabili da haka, hadadden abinci da makamashin ba shine abin da zai iya karyawa ba. A kan Y/Y abubuwan haɗin kayan abinci sun haura ta 11.3% da kuma haɗakar abubuwan da suka shafi ayyukan makamashin mai amfani sun tashi 20.3%, kuma suna ci gaba da tashi a wani babban faifan bidiyo a kowane wata.
Tare waɗannan abubuwan haɗin gwiwar suna lissafin 17.31% na nauyi a cikin CPI, idan aka kwatanta da kawai 4.66%dangana ga fetur da kuma tsakiyar distillates. Wato, 79% na nauyi a cikin hadaddun abinci da makamashi (jimlar nauyi = 21.88%) baya nuna alamar ragewa.
Misali, a nan ne maƙasudin maƙasudin duka abubuwan abinci a cikin CPI. A cikin watannin baya-bayan nan (Satumba), adadin karuwa na shekara-shekara na kowane wata (layin jan) ya kasance mai girma +9.4%, matakin kaɗan kaɗan ƙasa da adadi Y/Y da aka ambata na +11.3%. Wannan yana nufin a matsayin al'amari na ƙididdiga kawai cewa fihirisar abinci za ta yi ƙarfi sosai cikin 2023, koda kuwa ƙimar haɓaka ta wata-wata yakamata ta yi sanyi kwatsam sabanin yanayin tashin hankali na kwanan nan (layin ja) a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa.
Fihirisar Abinci na CPI: Canjin Y/Y (Layin Baƙar fata) Tare da Canjin Canjin Shekara-shekara (Jan Layi)
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, tare da yawan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin abinci da hadaddun makamashi, ra'ayin cewa gabaɗayan CPI za ta ɓace cikin sauri a cikin watanni masu zuwa shine kawai mafarkin bututu na perma-bull. Bayan haka, tare da farashin aiki na gida yana karuwa a matakan 6% + da aka nuna a cikin Sashe na 2, babu wata hanyar da ma'anar CPI don ayyuka za ta tashi daga tafasa kowane lokaci nan da nan.
Kuma yana kan tafasa idan aka kwatanta da shekaru 40 da suka gabata. Ribar Y/Y na 7.4% a watan Satumba shine karuwa mafi girma tun watan Satumba na 1982, kuma fiye da ninki biyu na karuwar 3.2% Y/Y da aka buga a watan Satumba na 2021. Wato, layin shuɗi na kusan a tsaye a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa yana nuna ƙarfin ci gaba mai ƙarfi, ba juyawa ƙasa kawai a kusa da kusurwa ba.
Canjin Y/Y A CPI Don Sabis, 1982-2022
Tabbas, dan kadan fiye da rabin nauyin nauyi a cikin ma'aunin CPI don ayyuka (60.51%) ana ƙididdige su ta hanyar hayar matsuguni (32.11%), kuma wasu masu siye-da-dippers sun nace cewa hayan suna shirye su shigo. Amma wannan ya dogara ne akan kuskuren karatu na raguwar yanayi a cikin wata-wata-wata yana neman haya don sabbin haya-raguwar da ke faruwa kowace shekara a cikin watanni na fall.
Bugu da ƙari, neman haya kan sabbin haya ba shine daidai gwargwado na hauhawar farashin haya da duk gidajen Amurka ke fuskanta ba, ko ta yaya. Ganin cewa kwangilar hayar gida ta kasance har tsawon shekara guda ko kuma ya fi tsayi, yana ɗaukar lokaci don yanayin "neman haya" don yin birgima ta hanyar duk samfuran gidaje na haya, wanda shine dalilin da yasa maƙasudin matsuguni na CPI ke nuna ci gaba mai tsayi tsakanin karatunsa da waɗanda aka buga don neman haya ta hanyar jagorantar sabis na gidaje masu zaman kansu.
Saboda haka, ma'aunin da ya dace na inda hayan CPI na lambobi na tsari ke tafiya ya ta'allaka ne a kwatanta tsakanin canjin haya na wata-wata (layin purple) da canjin Y/Y (layin launin ruwan kasa). Kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa, na baya sun wuce na ƙarshe tun daga Janairu 2022, ma'ana cewa dangane da lissafi, yanayin Y/Y zai yi girma na tsawon watanni masu zuwa.
A zahiri, a cikin watan Satumba, adadin canjin kowane wata ya kasance 9.15%, adadi kusan 40% sama da ribar Y/Y na 6.7%. A takaice, ko da faɗuwar farashin sabbin gidaje a cikin lokacin da ke gaba ya haifar da neman haya don kwantar da hankali ta zahiri, zai yi kyau cikin 2024 kafin hayan matsuguni na iya samun hanyarsa ta komawa ga burin Fed na 2.00%.
Fihirisar Hayar Matsuguni na CPI: Canjin Shekara-shekara na Watanni (Layin Purple) Da Canjin Y/Y (Layin Baƙar fata), 2017-2022
A kowane hali, index ɗin sabis na CPI ban da hayan matsuguni a zahiri ya tashi 8.1% a watan Satumba, adadi ma ya fi na 7.4% ribar ga jimillar ma'aunin ayyuka. Wannan yana nufin, ba shakka, cewa 28.40% na nauyin CPI da aka lissafta ta hanyar sabis na ƙasa da sabis yana tashi har ma da sauri fiye da farashin haya.
Haka kuma, kamar yadda bambancin ja da baƙaƙen layukan da ke cikin ginshiƙi na ƙasa ke nunawa, babu wata alama da ke nuna cewa wannan ƙaramin fihirisa yana gab da juyewa kowane lokaci nan ba da jimawa ba. Yayin da adadin riba (layin jan) na kowane wata ya kasance mai canzawa, ya yi sama da yanayin Y/Y a cikin bakwai cikin watanni takwas da suka gabata, wanda ke nuna cewa ma'aunin Y/Y zai sami ci gaba mai girma a cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Fihirisar CPI Don Ƙananan Matsuguni: Canjin Shekara-shekara na Watanni (Layin Ja) Tare da Canjin Y/Y (Layin Baƙar fata), 2017-2022
A cikin mahallin hauhawar farashin ma'aikata da sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki daga sashin sabis ana buƙatar ƙarin yanayi mara kyau a cikin bayanan tattalin arziki. Wato, cewa ribar 5-8% na farashin albashi a tsakanin sassan cikin gida daban-daban ba a kashe su ta kowace ribar yawan aiki kwata-kwata.
Wannan ba sabon abu bane, kuma ƙarin ma'auni ne na mummunan tasirin Lockdowns, ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙima da sakamakon lalacewar ƙarfin aiki na yawan shekarun aiki. Don sanin, tun Q1 2021, jimillar ribar farashin aiki (ciki har da fa'idodi) ya tashi daga ƙimar 3.0% na shekara-shekara (layin baƙar fata) zuwa 5.1%, yayin da ribar yawan aiki (layi mai ruwan hoda) ya tafi akasin shugabanci, yana raguwa daga + 2.2% a Q1 2021 -1.4% a cikin Q3 2022.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, wannan rata yana ƙara haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin aiki (layin launin ruwan kasa). Dangane da haka, a cikin rubu'i uku da suka gabata farashin aiki ya karu da fiye da haka 6.0% kowace shekara, yana wakiltar mafi girman ribar da aka samu cikin fiye da shekaru arba'in.
Canjin Shekara-shekara a cikin Jimillar Kudaden Ramuwa, Samar da Aikin Aiki da Kuɗin Ƙirar Ma'aikata, Q1 2021 zuwa Q3 2022
A ƙarshen rana, yanayin yanayin tattalin arziƙin Amurka ya kai wani lamari mai ban tsoro na tashin hankali. Kasuwar aiki da tattalin arziki suna da rauni. Haɓaka hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana da ƙarfi ƙwarai.
Abin da wannan ke nufi, bi da bi, shi ne cewa Fed ta zargin m riba yawan karuwa ne a zahiri a yini marigayi da dala takaice. Don ko da fara ƙaddamar da haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, dole ne a fitar da ƙimar ƙimar UST sama da matakin 5.0% a cikin ƙimar kuɗin Fed.
Duk da haka yana da tsammanin samun yawan amfanin UST wanda zai haifar da kayan aikin kuɗi don karya babban lokaci-musamman tsakanin farashin hannun jari na tsawon lokaci. A iya sanina, a gefe Amurka ta kasance tana kashe dimbin bashin jama'a na dala tiriliyan 31 ga masu saka hannun jari na kasashen waje.
Jafanawa kadai, alal misali, sun tara kusan dala tiriliyan 1.2 na bashin gwamnatin Amurka, musamman saboda ya samar da fiye da abin tausayi na 0.25% da Bankin Japan ya zartar. Waɗannan abubuwan da ake samu na UST, bi da bi, sun ba da kyakkyawar dawowa fiye da yadda ake samu a kasuwannin gida ko da bayan lissafin farashin shingen kuɗi.
Amma cinikin dala mai shinge ba ya aiki kuma, saboda durkushewar yen. Wannan na baya-bayan ya sa farashin shingen kudin ya tashi sosai.
Don haka duka cibiyoyin Japan da Mr. da Mrs. Watanabe sun cika da asarar dala akan lamunin dala, ma'ana manyan masu siyan baitul-mali na Amurka tsawon shekaru, wadanda suka taimaka wajen rage farashin rance ga 'yan kasuwa da masu sayayya na Amurka, yanzu sun bar ramukan dala.
Kamar yadda Wall Street Journal kwanan nan aka lura,
SAlamun na kara nuna cewa gwamnatin kasar Japan na sayar da takardun lamuni na Amurka na gajeren lokaci, wani bangare na kokarin bunkasa kudadenta. A ranar 22 ga Satumba, yawan amfanin ƙasa akan bayanin Baitul malin Amurka na shekaru 10 ya shiga tsalle-tsalle mafi girma na biyu na shekara Bayan da gwamnatin kasar Japan ta bayyana hakan siyan yen da daloli daga ajiyar kuɗin waje a karon farko tun shekarun 1990.
A sa'i daya kuma, wasu masu zuba hannun jari na kasar Japan suna fafatawa don rage hannun jarin kasashen waje, gami da Treasurys.
Tarayya Reserve ta yawan riba yana ƙaruwa da raunana yen kuma ya sanya ya zama mai tsada ga masu zuba jari na Japan don yin shinge da canjin kuɗi lokacin siyan kadarorin Amurka. Sakamakon haka, maimakon a lissafta bukatar masu zuba jari na Japan na Treasurys, masu saka hannun jari sun ƙara nuna damuwa game da yuwuwar sauyin da za a iya tabarbarewar babban birnin duniya.
Rugujewar buƙatun Japan na zuwa ne a daidai lokacin da kasuwar lamuni ta Amurka ke cikin wahala daya daga cikin mafi munin shekarunsa a tarihi, Kasancewa da ci gaba da hauhawar farashin farashi da haɓaka tsammanin yadda babban Fed zai buƙaci haɓaka ƙimar. Yayin da farashin haɗin gwiwa ya faɗi, yawan amfanin Baitul mali ya haura zuwa matakin da ya fi girma a cikin fiye da shekaru goma.
Tabbas, tsawon shekaru da yawa masu hasashe na Jafananci sun tsunduma cikin wani nau'i mai banƙyama na yanke hukunci. Wato, sun tattara haƙƙin mallaka na Amurka na dogon lokaci ba kawai saboda sun ba da mafi girma yawan amfanin ƙasa fiye da shaidun Jafananci ba amma saboda yawan amfanin da aka samu akan Treasurys na dogon lokaci ya fi waɗanda ke kan gajeren lokaci na Treasurys. Wannan ya ba su damar samun riba mai kyau ta hanyar rancen daloli a cikin gajeren lokaci sannan kuma siyan shaidu na dogon lokaci - wani yunkuri wanda kuma ya yi aiki a matsayin shinge na gaskiya game da canjin kuɗi!
Wannan wasan yana zuwa ƙarshe da sauri, duk da haka. A cikin watanni hudun da suka gabata, masu inshorar rayuwar Jafanawa da fensho kadai sun rage hannun jarin kasashen waje da kusan dala biliyan 40, a cewar bayanan gwamnatin Japan. Hakan na zuwa ne bayan sun kara kusan dala biliyan 500 tun farkon shekarar 2016, lokacin Manufofin BOJ sun haifar da haɓakar haɗin gwiwar Japan kasa sifili.
A taƙaice dai, ma’aikatan babban bankin ƙasar sun yi wa manyan kasuwannin duniya kusan ba za a iya gyara su ba. Kamar yadda Fed a yanzu ke ƙoƙarin kawar da tasirin hauhawar farashin kuɗaɗen buga-bugu a cikin shekaru da yawa da suka gabata, yanayin bazarar da ke haifar da hasashe da ɓarna a duk faɗin duniya zai iya wargajewa.
Don haka abin da muke da shi ba wai kawai tabarbarewar tattalin arziki mafi muni cikin shekaru 40 ba ne, har ma da tarin kurakuran saka hannun jari na babban bankin da za su kara yawa da kuma tsawaita maganin kudi a yanzu haka.
Marubucin cikin alheri ya ba da izinin sake bugawa daga nasa sabis na yau da kullun da aka biya.
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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