Saboda babu wasu hanyoyin da za a iya tantancewa, rarrabawa, rarrabawa, ko rarraba bayanan yawan jama'a ban da ta hanyar "Raba kuri'un Trump," dole ne a kasance ba. wani sauran bayani mai yuwuwa ga wani abu banda waccan jajayen larduna = mara kyau (mutuwar Covid!), Gundumomin shuɗi = mai kyau (ba kamar mutuwar Covid ba!).
Tabbas ina kasancewa da fuska. Duk shawarar wauta ce kawai. Manufar bambance-bambance na asali a cikin yawan jama'a shine a da kyau kafa la'akari ga wadanda suka yi nazarin lafiyar jama'a. Wani na iya tunanin cewa al'ummominmu fitattun jaridu na iya buƙatar babban marubucin su ya tuntuɓi masana kiwon lafiyar jama'a ko ma masanin kimiyyar aikin don samun cikakkiyar hangen nesa da ba da bayanan ƙarin bincike mai tsauri.
Bari mu kalli manyan abubuwan da ke cikin jerin “Red Covid” na David Leonhardt.
Satumba 27, 2021
"Red Covid: Tsarin bangaranci na Covid yana girma sosai. "
(Don Allah a lura da axis Y akan wannan ginshiƙi)
"Abin da ya bambanta Amurka jam'iyya ce mai ra'ayin mazan jiya - Jam'iyyar Republican - wacce ta yi adawa da ita kimiyya da kuma shaida na zahiri a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Rukunin kafofin watsa labaru masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, gami da Fox News, Sinclair Broadcast Group da wasu kantuna na kan layi, suna ƙara da haɓaka wannan ƙiyayya. Trump ya dauki tunanin makircin zuwa wani sabon matakin, amma bai kirkiro shi ba. "
"'Yan siyasar dimokuradiyya sun kasance suna rokon duk Amurkawa da su yi allurar rigakafi kuma yawancin 'yan siyasar Republican ba su yi ba."
Nuwamba 8, 2021
Mutuwar Covid-19 ta Amurka ta yi ja sosai: Mutuwar Covid-19 ta Amurka ta yi ja
“Taƙaitaccen sigar: Ratawar adadin mutuwar Covid tsakanin ja da shuɗi na Amurka ya karu cikin sauri a cikin watan da ya gabata fiye da kowane lokaci da ya gabata.
A watan Oktoba, 25 daga cikin kowane mazaunin 100,000 na manyan lardunan Trump sun mutu daga Covid, fiye da sau uku fiye da adadin a cikin manyan gundumomin Biden (7.8 cikin 100,000).
Fabrairu 18, 2022
"Red Covid, sabuntawa: Ratawar bangaranci a cikin mutuwar Covid har yanzu yana girma, amma da sannu a hankali. "
“Kamar yadda ginshiƙi ya bayyana a sarari, adadin ya yi muni a kananan hukumomin da Trump ya yi nasara da gagarumin rinjaye fiye da na kananan hukumomin da ya yi nasara da yawa.
"Wannan al'amari misali ne na yadda rikice-rikicen siyasar kasar ya karkatar da tunanin mutane, ko da kuwa tsaron lafiyarsu yana cikin hadari. Abin takaici ne - kuma abin da za a iya hanawa."
Kafin in shiga ƙayyadaddun bayanai game da waɗannan abubuwan da suka fi sauƙi, Ina so in bayyana cewa na yi imani cewa kalaman Leonhardt a sama suna nuna imani na gaske. Ya yi imani da gaske cewa zaɓin siyasa shine bayanin dalilin mutuwar Covid. Ba matsayin lafiya ba, shekaru, nauyi, cututtuka. Abu ɗaya kawai: fifikon siyasa na sirri.
A bayyane yake, ya yi imanin cewa bayanin da ke haifar da mafi girman mace-mace na Covid-19 a jahohin jahohin shine ainihin ƙarancin allurar rigakafi a jahohin ja. Don haka ta hanyar tsawaitawa, an bayyana wannan ta fifikon siyasa.
Abin da nake fata in bayyana a ƙasa shine cikakken hoto na abin da ke faruwa lokacin da muka rarraba bayanan matakin gundumomi cikin rukunonin da Leonhardt ya zaɓa: 'Raba Kuri'ar Trump a cikin gundumar' (0-30%, 31-45%, 46-55%, 56-70%, and 70%+). Yin amfani da bayanan matakin mace-mace na tarihi, zan yi ƙoƙarin amsa tambayoyi masu zuwa:
Ta yaya yanayin mace-macen Covid ya kwatanta da yanayin tarihi lokacin da aka keɓe ta hanyar zaɓin siyasa?
Shin mace-macen Covid-19 yana da alaƙa da duk yana haifar da mace-mace?
Shin 2021 ya ga babban, bambance-bambancen da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba a cikin yawan mace-mace tsakanin lardunan 'ja' da 'blue'?
Za a iya yin ƙarin bincike don ganin ko adadin allurar rigakafi yana da alaƙa da yawan mace-mace (sai dai kawai Covid-19) a cikin dogon lokaci, Duk da haka tare da ma'anar "cikakken alurar riga kafi" ko "har zuwa yau" kasancewa manufa mai motsi, Na zaɓi kada in kwatanta mace-mace ta hanyar alurar riga kafi ta gundumomi a yanzu (da yawa wasu sun riga sun gudanar da wannan aikin!). Don a bayyane, na yi imani cewa ga waɗanda ke cikin haɗari, an nuna allurar rigakafin rage haɗarin na cutar ga wadanda mutane. Manufar wannan bincike shine a zurfafa zurfafa cikin waɗannan ɓangarorin siyasa waɗanda jaridar New York Times ta dage wani bayani ne mara shakka game da mutuwar Covid-19 in ba haka ba da aka sani da "Red Covid."
Don farawa - bari mu dubi bambanci a cikin kananan hukumomi da muke kwatanta a nan. Idan aka kalli rukunin "70% + Trump Vote" - tana wakiltar Amurkawa miliyan 25, kuma matsakaicin yawan kananan hukumomin da ke cikin wannan rukunin ya kai dubu 23. Waɗannan su ne manyan lardunan karkara. Kwatanta da gundumomin Biden inda Trump ke da kasa da kashi 30% na kuri'un da ke wakiltar Amurkawa miliyan 110 (musamman a yankunan Birane), kuma matsakaicin yawan jama'a a wadannan kananan hukumomin ya kai dubu 137.
Don fayyace ragowar bincike tare da waccan bayanan yawan jama'a, muna kwatanta alkaluma daban-daban, kuma ba ma sarrafa waɗancan bambance-bambancen. Hanyar da ta dace don yin waɗannan kwatancen ita ce sarrafa waɗannan bambance-bambance - musamman ta hanyar daidaita shekaru, don nuna ba'a game da tasirin adadin allurar rigakafi daban-daban ko manufofin daban-daban. Labaran NYT ba su yi haka ba, kuma a wani yanayi sun yi ƙoƙarin yin watsi da mahimmancin bambance-bambancen shekaru tsakanin waɗannan ƙungiyoyi. Zan yi amfani da nau'ikan nau'ikan da suka yi, amma suna ɗaukar ra'ayi mafi girma na waɗannan nau'ikan don ganin ko farkon shawarar da LeonhardT yana da matsala ko a'a.
Ta yaya yanayin mace-macen Covid ya kwatanta da yanayin tarihi lokacin da aka keɓe ta hanyar zaɓin siyasa?
Don amsa wannan tambayar, ya kamata mu duba mu ga ko wannan yanayin na yawan mace-mace a mafi yawan yankunan masu ra'ayin mazan jiya sabon abu ne ko na musamman. Shin wannan wani sabon abu ne ko na musamman wanda cutar ta haifar? Takarda a cikin Jaridar Epidemiology da Kiwan Lafiya, wanda aka rubuta a cikin 2015 (zamanin Pre-Trump), ya amsa mana wannan tambayar.
"A cikin wannan bincike na 32 830 mahalarta da kuma jimlar biyo bayan shekaru 498 845 mutum-shekaru, mun gano cewa jam'iyyun siyasa alaka da akidar siyasa suna da alaka da mace-mace. Duk da haka, ban da masu zaman kansu (daidaitacce HR (AHR) = 0.93, 95% CI 0.90 zuwa 0.97 halaye na jam'iyyar da aka bayyana a karkashin jam'iyyun siyasa bambance-bambancen. Game da akida, masu ra'ayin mazan jiya (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 zuwa 1.12) da masu matsakaicin matsayi (AHR=1.06, 95% CI 1.01 zuwa 1.11) suna cikin hadari mafi girma ga mace-mace yayin bibiya fiye da masu sassaucin ra'ayi."
Don haka a cewar wannan takarda, an lura cewa yawan mace-macen masu ra'ayin mazan jiya ya dan yi sama da sauran kungiyoyin siyasa. Don ganin idan wannan ya bayyana a cikin Duk-Dalilin Mutuwar Mutuwar, Na ɗauki bayanan matakin mace-mace na gundumomi daga shekarun pre-Covid (2018 & 2019) daga CDC Wonder, kuma ta haɗa su da ƙungiyoyi iri ɗaya waɗanda NYT ke amfani da su - '% Raba kuri'ar Trump' don ganin ko yawan mace-mace yayin bala'in ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba.
Ya bayyana cewa kananan hukumomin Trump suna da yawan mace-mace fiye da sauran ƙungiyoyin a ~ 1200 mutuwar / yawan jama'a 100k a cikin shekaru biyun da suka gabata, 2018 & 2019. Don haka bayanai sun nuna cewa kananan hukumomin Red suna da yawan mace-mace gaba ɗaya ba sabon abu bane, kuma ya dace da yanayin tarihi. Abin sha'awa ko da yake, ƙananan ƙananan ƙananan ƙananan mace-mace fiye da gundumomin 'Light Red', tare da 'Purple' da 'Light Blue' suna da mafi ƙasƙanci. Akwai bayanai masu ma'ana da yawa game da wannan, tare da mafi sauƙi shine cewa waɗannan ƙananan hukumomi kawai tsofaffi ne kawai. Bari mu ga yadda bayanan ke canzawa lokacin da muka tsufa-daidaita yawan mace-mace. (Bayanai na gefe: don cikakkun bayanai game da mahimmanci da kuma yadda / dalilin da yasa bayan daidaitawar shekaru duba sakon Mary Pat Campbell nan🙂
Kuna iya ganin cewa lokacin daidaitawa don shekaru, bambancin farashin tsakanin ƙungiyoyin gundumomi ya kusan ɓacewa.
Shin mace-macen Covid-19 yana da alaƙa da duk yana haifar da mace-mace?
Babban zato a cikin sassan NYT shine cewa waɗannan ƙungiyoyin suna wakiltar wani nau'in bambance-bambance a cikin nauyin mutuwa da mace-mace gabaɗaya. Yankunan sun fi mayar da hankali ne kawai kan mace-mace daga ko tare da Covid-19, kuma da gaske babu maganar tasirin mace-mace. Ba tare da tambaya ba, Covid-19 ya haifar da mutuwa da yawa kuma ya ƙara yawan nauyin mace-mace a cikin jama'a.
Amma tambayar ta kasance - zuwa wane irin nauyi ne nauyi ya fi girma ko ƙasa a yankunan 'Red' da 'Blue' na ƙasar? Za mu iya amsa wannan tambayar ta hanyar kwatanta mutuwar Covid-19 a cikin waɗannan rukunoni da yawan mace-mace na waɗannan ƙungiyoyi iri ɗaya. Bari mu ga abin da zai faru idan muka yi hakan. Tun da NYT ta mai da hankali kan 2021, shekarar da alluran rigakafi suka sami yaɗuwa, za mu fara a can.
Dubi adadin mace-mace na Covid-19 a hagu, vs Duk Sanadin mace-mace a hannun dama.
Kamar yadda kake gani, ginshiƙi na hagu shine abin da jerin labaran NYT suka mayar da hankali a kai - wannan babban rata tsakanin ja da shuɗi. Duban ginshiƙi a hannun dama (Mutuwa daga kowane dalili), za ku ga cewa bambance-bambancen sun ɓace. Ina mamakin idan wani wanda ke karanta waɗannan labaran zai yi tafiya tare da sanin cewa duk da ƙarancin mace-mace na Covid-19 a cikin larduna masu shuɗi, waɗannan ƙananan shuɗin shuɗi a zahiri suna da mace-mace gabaɗaya fiye da lardunan shuɗi ko shuɗi?
Shin 2021 ya ga babban, bambance-bambancen da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba a cikin yawan mace-mace tsakanin lardunan 'ja' da 'blue'?
Lokacin da kuka kwatanta adadin mace-mace a cikin 2021 ta waɗannan rukunin tare da iri ɗaya a cikin 2019, zaku ga cewa gabaɗaya sun fi girma, amma kwatankwacin, kowane rukuni yana riƙe matsayinsu iri ɗaya kamar shekarar da ba ta kamu da cutar ba. Don haka yayin da yana iya zama gaskiya cewa adadin masu mutuwa na Covid-19 ya yi ƙasa a cikin larduna masu launin shuɗi, wannan bai fassara zuwa yawan adadin mace-mace a waɗannan lardunan ba. (Zan daidaita waɗannan ƙimar idan ina da bayanan, amma a halin yanzu CDC Wonder ba ta da bayanan 2021 tukuna har zuwa wannan rubutun).
Wata hanyar kallon wannan ita ce duba canjin farashin shekara sama da shekara a cikin kowane rukuni. Kamar yadda kuke gani daga ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, canjin kashi ya kasance mai daidaituwa tsakanin kowane rukuni, tare da ganin 2020 mafi girman canjin canji, kuma 2021 yana ganin ƙaramin canji amma babban canji daga 2020 (ma'ana gabaɗayan mace-mace har yanzu yana ƙaruwa sosai dangane da 2019).
A taƙaice, lokacin da muka ɗauki ra'ayi na tarihi da hangen nesa mafi girma yayin kiyaye waɗannan ƙungiyoyi iri ɗaya, waɗannan bambance-bambancen bambance-bambance a cikin adadin mace-mace na Covid-19 ba su da alama suna fassara zuwa ƙimar ɗabi'a gabaɗaya. Me yasa?
A cikin haɗarin wannan bincike ya juya zuwa wani tarin-kan nuna New York Time's kurakurai, Ina so in ba da ƙarin bayani mai kyau. Abu ne da ya addabi 'yan jarida da rahotanni a duk lokacin da cutar ta barke. Me yasa aka tsara komai a cikin Ja da Blue? Dalili ɗaya mai sauƙi: samuwar bayanai. Leonhardt yana amfani da bayanan da ke cikin sauƙi kuma an riga an tsara shi don sauƙin bincike.
Wannan shi ake kira an kasancewar son zuciya. Yana da gaske ƙirƙirar hasashe ko kammala nazari bisa ƙayyadaddun bayanai na musamman, ba don wani dalili ba sai cewa bayanan suna nan. Don kawai bayanan yana samuwa ba yana nufin shine mafi kyawun bayanan da za a yi amfani da su don ƙoƙarin amsa tambaya ba.
'Yan Republican kuma mutane ne
Me ya sa duk wannan ya shafi? Bayan haka, da alama mun yarda da cewa manyan rahotanni da labaran kebul suna da son zuciya ta hagu. Menene babban lamarin?
Idan ana maganar lafiyar al’umma, manufar ita ce inganta lafiya da jin dadin kowa da kowa, yayin da saƙon kiwon lafiyar jama’a da rahotanni suka zama bangaranci ba tare da kunya ba, ta hanyar amfani da dabarun zargi da kunya, da alama za ta sami akasin tasirin da ake so na inganta lafiya.
Masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da "Red Counties" suna buƙatar kyakkyawar shawarar lafiya kuma. Suna buƙatar su iya amincewa da tushen. Ko da ɗaukar jigon NYT na "Red Covid" a fuskar fuska, wa ke taimaka wa wannan saƙon? A bayyane yake, ba mutanen da suke kwatanta ba.
Bayanan Sources:
https://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/help/ucd.html#2000%20Standard%20Population
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/AH-County-of-Occurrence-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-202/6vqh-esgs/data
https://wonder.cdc.gov/
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ
Takardun Jarida:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4033819
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5893220/
An sake bugawa daga marubucin Mayarwa
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Josh yana zaune a Nashville Tennessee kuma kwararre ne na ganin bayanai wanda ke mai da hankali kan ƙirƙirar sauƙin fahimtar sigogi da dashboards tare da bayanai. A cikin bala'in cutar, ya ba da bincike don tallafawa ƙungiyoyin bayar da shawarwari na gida don ilmantarwa ta mutum da sauran ma'ana, manufofin covid da ke haifar da bayanai. Asalinsa a fannin injiniyan kwamfuta ne & tuntuba, kuma digirinsa na farko yana kan Injiniya Audio. Ana iya samun aikin nasa a kan rukunin sa "Bayanan da suka dace."
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