An ce karni na 21 shine karni na bayanai. Don haka, idan Alice ta yi iƙirarin cewa allurar rigakafin Covid sun ceci miliyoyin rayuka amma Bob ya ce sun kashe miliyoyin, ya kamata ya zama da sauƙi a yanke shawarar wanda ya dace. Samun bayanan kawai, daidai?
Mun sami bayanan don Jamhuriyar Czech. Har yanzu na kasa yarda muna da shi, amma haka ne nan. Bayanai na hukuma ne da aka samu daga wata hukumar gwamnati ta hanyar buƙatun FOIA, kuma akwai don kowa ya zazzagewa da bincikarsa. Bayanan sun ƙunshi fiye da layuka miliyan 11 - jeri ɗaya ga kowane mazaunin Czech wanda ke raye a ranar 1 ga Janairu, 2020, ko kuma an haife shi tsakanin Janairu 1, 2020, da Disamba 31, 2022.
Ga kowane mutum, layin bayanan ya ƙunshi shekarar haihuwa, jima'i, ainihin ranar mutuwa daga kowane dalili (idan mutum ya mutu a cikin shekaru ukun da aka yi nazari) da takamaiman ranaku, nau'ikan, har ma da adadin adadin duk allurar rigakafin Covid da aka ba wa wancan mutumin. Dalilin mutuwar, abin takaici, ba a bayar da shi ba. A iyakar saninmu, wannan ita ce kawai bayanan da aka fitar a hukumance wanda ke danganta mace-mace zuwa matsayin rigakafin Covid a matakin daidaikun mutane a ma'aunin kasa baki daya.
Kafin mu koma Alice da Bob, Ina buƙatar in gaya muku kaɗan game da Jamhuriyar Czech. Komai ya fi kamanceceniya a nan fiye da yadda Ba’amurke zai yi tunanin: Babu wasu tsirarun tsirarun kabilu a nan. Muna da tsarin kiwon lafiya na duniya, kyauta, kuma mai tsari sosai, don haka da yawa kowa yana samun kulawa iri ɗaya (ba da izinin cin hanci da rashawa nan da can). Daga zamanin kwaminisanci, mun gaji tsarin dole "lambobin ƴan ƙasa" (IDs ɗin da jihohi ke bayarwa), don haka kowa yana da ƙima sosai: Ba shi yiwuwa a haifa, ko a mutu, ba tare da jihar ta lura da sauri ba.
Sakamakon haka, bayanan jami'in Czech kusan daidai ne (ba kamar misali Ofishin Kididdiga na Biritaniya ba, wanda ko ta yaya. gudanar da rasa miliyan biyu da ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba). A takaice dai, wannan saitin bayanan Czech daidai ne, tsafta, kamanni, dalla-dalla cewa babu wani abu mai kama da zai kasance a cikin Amurka. Don haka, idan ana iya samun amsoshi a cikin irin wannan nau'in bayanan, za su kasance musamman bayyananne kuma ba za a iya warware su ba a cikin bayanan Czech.
Ba cikakke ba ne don ƙididdige yawan mace-mace (ACM) a cikin takamaiman ƙungiyar shekaru bisa ga matsayin rigakafin. Za a jarabci mutum ya ƙidaya adadin waɗanda suka mutu a cikin wannan ƙungiyar kuma a raba su da girman ƙungiyar a wani lokaci na musamman. Amma wannan ba daidai ba ne saboda mutane suna ci gaba da canzawa tsakanin ƙungiyoyin rigakafin, ta yadda girmansu ke ci gaba da canzawa.
Alal misali, ka yi la’akari da Auntie Betty, wadda ta shiga nazarin a ranar 1 ga Janairu, 2020, a matsayin wadda ba a yi mata allurar rigakafi ba. Ta sami kashi na farko a ranar 13 ga Maris, 2021, ta ci gaba da samun kashi na biyu a ranar 13 ga Afrilu, 2021, kuma ta mutu bayan kwanaki 25. Don haka, ta ba da gudummawar kwanaki 437 ga ƙungiyar da ba a yi wa alurar riga kafi ba, kwana 31 ga ƙungiyar “kashi 1 kawai”, kwanaki 25 zuwa rukunin “kashi 1 da 2”, da mutuwa ɗaya ga ƙungiyar “kashi 1 da 2”. Dole ne a yi irin wannan rugujewar ga kowane ƙungiyar shekaru da kowane mutum. Daga nan ne kawai za a iya raba adadin mace-mace a kowace ƙungiyar rigakafin (wanda aka ƙirƙira ta shekaru) zuwa adadin kwanakin mutum-mutumin da mutane ke kashewa a waccan ƙungiyar don samun madaidaicin ƙimar ACM.
An rubuta ƙarin bayanan fasaha a ciki asalin takarda, amma mun aiwatar da tsarin da aka bayyana a sama don ƙididdige ƙimar ACM na wata-wata da aka keɓe ta matsayin rigakafin, jima'i, da shekaru. Daga nan aka kwatanta ACM da adadin mace-macen da ake tsammani dangane da bayanan riga-kafin cutar.
Hakanan ana buƙatar kididdige yawan mace-macen da ake tsammani a hankali. Ana iya jarabtar mutum ya kwatanta ACM ɗin da aka ƙididdige zuwa ƙimar mace-mace kafin annoba (Ina jin tsoron cewa yawancin marubuta suna yin haka kawai). Koyaya, wannan zai sake zama kuskure. Mutane da yawa sun mutu yayin bala'in (saboda dalilai daban-daban) kuma tunda ba za su sake mutuwa ba, dole ne a yi tsammanin mace-mace ta mutu. ragewa bayan annoba. Don haka, daga bayanan riga-kafin cutar, mun ƙiyasta yiwuwar mutuwa a cikin shekara guda, idan aka ba da shekaru da jima'i, sa'an nan kuma mu ninka adadin yawan jama'a na yanzu ta hanyar waɗannan ƙididdiga. Har ma mun yi la'akari da rashin tabbas na kiyasin ta hanyar da ta fi fasaha da za a iya siffanta a nan (don Allah a duba asali takarda).
A wannan matakin, muna riƙe numfashinmu, muna ɗokin ganin ko allurar ta kasance albarka ko la'ana. Mun buga ginshiƙi - kuma mun sami kanmu muna kallo Madubin Erised. Alkaluman suna ba da labarai masu ban sha'awa da yawa kuma kowa zai iya ɗaukar wanda yake so. Bari mu ba da wasu labarun ga wata ƙungiya ta musamman - matan da aka haifa tsakanin 1940 da 1949. Sauran adadi (tare da ƙimar ACM) za a iya samuwa a cikin kari kuma muna gayyatar masu karatu su bincika su da kyau.
Hoto. Juyin Halittar mace-mace (ACM) a cikin ƙungiyar matan da aka haifa tsakanin 1940 da 1949; Jamhuriyar Czech, 2020-2022. Babban kwamitin yana nuna dangin dangi na yawan jama'a bisa ga matsayin rigakafin. Ƙungiyar tsakiya tana nuna ƙimar ACM ta matsayin alurar riga kafi na kowane wata tsakanin Janairu 2020 da Disamba 2022, matsakaicin ƙimar ACM da ke watsi da matsayin rigakafin (layin baƙar fata) da ƙimar ACM da ake tsammani (akwatin kore). Ƙungiyar ƙasa tana nuna ƙimar ACM dangane da ƙimar ACM na waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba. Matsayin rigakafin yana da launi mai launi kamar haka: Ba a yi ba - ja; daidaikun mutane bayan kashi ɗaya na kowane maganin Covid-19 - shuɗi mai duhu; mutane bayan allurai biyu na kowane maganin Covid-19 - shuɗi; mutane bayan uku ko fiye allurai - haske blue. Lura cewa yawan rigakafin wannan rukunin ya fara ne a ranar 1 ga Maris, 2021; kafin wannan kwanan wata, mutane masu rauni ne kawai da aka ba da fifiko don allurar riga-kafi sun sami maganin.
Da fatan za a tuna cewa muna nazari duk-dalili mace-mace, ba masu alaka da Covid mace-mace, saboda bayanan ba su ƙunshi musabbabin mutuwar ba. Wannan yana ƙara wani nau'i na rikitarwa ga fassarar sakamakon. Don haka, menene muke gani a cikin madubi na Erised?
Kashi na farko "mai mutuwa". Mutuwar mutanen da ke da kashi ɗaya (sanduna masu launin shuɗi) sun fi ban tsoro fiye da na yawan mutanen da ba a yi musu allurar ba, kafin Maris 2021 da kuma daga lokacin rani 2021 gaba. Shin wannan shaida ce ta mace-macen da ke da alaƙa da rigakafin? Wataƙila a'a. A farkon 2021, lokacin da alluran rigakafi ba su da yawa, mafi ƙarancin mutane a cikin gidajen kulawa da marasa lafiya an yi musu alluran riga-kafi. Wannan "nuna son zuciya" mai yiwuwa yana bayyana tsarin a farkon 2021.
Da zarar an fara yin allurar riga-kafi a waccan ƙungiyar, ACM ɗin ya ruguje saboda “ƙasasshe” ta hanyar kwararar masu lafiya. Koyaya, a cikin 'yan watanni, yawancin mutane masu lafiya sun ci gaba da karɓar kashi na biyu. Kadan daga cikin ƴan ƙungiyar an bar su a baya - mai yiwuwa waɗanda ba su da lafiya don samun wani kashi. Sun kasance marasa lafiya saboda na farkon kashi? Wa ya sani? A kowane hali, ACM na waɗanda suka zauna tare da matsayin "dose 1" sun sake yin harbi saboda ACM na allurar rigakafin sau biyu ya ragu.
Dutsen Boka. Dutsen Boka aka ce ya ba da dawwama ga mai shi. Alurar riga kafi sau biyu a lokacin rani 2021 (kuma daga baya an yi masa allurar sau uku) tabbas da alama sun gano shi. Bari mu tuna cewa lokacin rani na 2021 lokaci ne na Covid-free a cikin Jamhuriyar Czech: na kusan mutuwar 300 na yau da kullun, babu sama da 1 da aka danganta ga Covid. Duk da haka, ACM na allurar biyu ya kasance 4 zuwa 5 sau ƙasa fiye da na marasa alurar riga kafi! A takaice dai, tasirin rigakafin Covid akan wadanda ba na Covid-80 ba ya kusan kusan kashi XNUMX!
An san wannan mu'ujiza ga masu ilimin cututtuka a matsayin Lafiyayyen Alurar riga kafi (HVE). Yawancin mutanen da ke fama da rashin lafiya ba sa iya samun maganin. Mutanen da ke mutuwa, masu rauni, masu nisa, da sauransu, sukan mayar da hankali a cikin ƙungiyar da ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba. Ba abin mamaki ba cewa waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba suna da ACM mafi girma. Hoton da ke sama har ma yana nuna yadda HVE ke maimaita tare da kowane sabon maganin alurar riga kafi.
Da zaran kashi biyu ya sami samuwa, masu maganin alurar riga kafi sun rabu zuwa waɗanda ke da lafiya don ci gaba da kashi 2, da kuma marasa lafiya don samun kashi 2. Saboda haka, ACM na sababbin alurar riga kafi tare da kashi 2 plummets, yayin da ACM na wadanda suka zauna tare da kashi 1 skyrockets. Irin wannan tsari yana maimaita tare da kashi 3: Sabbin alurar riga kafi tare da kashi 3 sun bayyana "marasa mutuwa," yayin da ACM na waɗanda suka zauna tare da kashi 2 sun haura. Wannan tsarin ya yi daidai da duka jinsin (har yanzu muna da biyu kawai a cikin Jamhuriyar Czech) kuma a cikin dukkanin ƙungiyoyin shekaru, kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin kari.
Akwai ƙarin tunani a cikin Madubin Erised. An kwatanta duka a cikin asali takarda, don haka babu buƙatar maimaita su a nan. Muhimmin batu - wanda ya kamata a maimaita shi a ko'ina - shi ne:
Za a iya samun ainihin ƙimar tasirin maganin kawai daga mai yiwuwa bazuwar karatu. A can, HVE ba damuwa ba ne saboda mutane ba sa zuwa zabi wanda ya karbi maganin kuma wanda ya karbi placebo. Koyaya, binciken da aka yi na ƙarshe na bazuwar allurar rigakafin Covid ya ƙare a farkon 2021. Bugu da ƙari, sun yi amfani da wani maganin rigakafi daban-daban (wanda aka kera ta hanyar tsari 1) kuma sun yi niyya ga asalin (Wuhan) nau'in ƙwayar cuta, wanda ya ɓace da yawa a lokacin fitar da allurar rigakafin. Tun bayan fitowar, duk da'awar game da tasirin rigakafin sun dogara ne akan binciken lura.
Duk da haka, a cikin madubi na Erised a sama, zaku iya ganin cewa maganin na iya bayyana yana da tasiri 80%, har ma da Covid-ba tare da dangantaka ba mutuwa! Har yanzu, ba mu sani ba wani Nazarin tasirin maganin rigakafin da suka yi ƙoƙarin gyara wannan babbar HVE. Wannan yana nufin cewa duk da'awar tasirin rigakafin Covid tun farkon kamfen ɗin rigakafin dole ne a sake fasalin. Tasirin ingancin maganin na gaskiya game da mutuwa daga Covid na iya zama sifili, ko ma mara kyau; kawai ba mu sani ba.
A cikin karni na bayanai, bayan tilasta wannan samfurin gwaji na zamani a hannun biliyoyin, gami da yara da mata masu juna biyu, har yanzu muna fuskantar tambayar da Alice da Bob suka yi a farkon: Shin "alurar rigakafi" na Covid ya ceci miliyoyin ko kashe miliyoyin? Shin za mu je neman amsoshin - sake - har zuwa Nuremberg?
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Tomas Fürst yana koyar da ilimin lissafi a Jami'ar Palaky, Jamhuriyar Czech. Asalinsa yana cikin tsarin ƙirar lissafi da Kimiyyar Bayanai. Shi ne mai kafa wanda ya kafa kungiyar ta kungiyar ta microbiologist, da stripologists (smis) wanda ya samar da Czechan jama'a tare da bayanan gaskiya da gaskiya game da cutar Coronavirus. Shi ne kuma wanda ya kafa wata mujalla ta "samizdat" dZurnal wacce ke mai da hankali kan fallasa munanan dabi'un kimiyya a Kimiyyar Czech.
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