Abubuwa sun fara karkata zuwa hagu da dama - na jiya kashi 43% na Snap Inc. (SNAP) yana cikin su.
Sannan kuma idan farashin kasuwar kamfani ya ragu da kashi 85 cikin 815 a cikin watanni takwas, bayan da ya barke da kashi XNUMX cikin XNUMX a cikin shekara daya da rabi da ta gabata, mai yiyuwa ne wani abu bai kai haka ba. A wannan yanayin, ranar farawa shine kan gaba a cikin wadanda ake zargi.
Ya faru ne cewa ƙimar kasuwar SNAP ta tsaya a kan dala biliyan 14.3 kawai a cikin Maris 2020 lokacin da Fed ta fara buga mafi girman hauka na buga kuɗi har abada. Bayan watanni 18 kacal kasuwar SNAP ta kai dala biliyan 131, kuma muna nufin ba gaira ba dalili ko kadan.
A wancan lokacin kudaden shiga na LTM da kuɗaɗen kuɗi kyauta sun tsaya a dala biliyan 3.7 da - dala miliyan 6.0, bi da bi. Wannan ya kai adadin kudaden shiga na 35X da yawa da ƙima mara iyaka na kwararar tsabar kuɗi kyauta (layin rawaya), wanda kamfanin ya ba da rahoton nau'in tawada mai ci gaba tun lokacin da ya fito fili a ƙarshen 2016.
Duk da haka, yana da wuya a ce faɗakar da ribar da kamfanin ya samu a jiya da kuma jan numfashi ya sa ya dawo cikin hayyacinsa. A zahiri, kuɗin kuɗin sa na LTM na kyauta ya buga akan dala miliyan 203 kawai a cikin Maris, ma'ana cewa a ƙarshen faɗuwar ƙarshe an ƙima shi a 645X kwararar kuɗaɗen kyauta na yanzu, kuma har yanzu—wurin jiya duk da cewa ya ƙare 111X.
A takaice dai, hauka na buga kudi na Fed bayan Maris 2020, wanda aka ba da shi don tallafawa ayyukan kulle-kulle, ya lalata duk wani nau'in ma'ana da ya rage a kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi. Don haka a yanzu, in babu jan bugu mai zafi a Ginin Eccles, lokacin da kimar da ba ta dace ba ta buge ta ta hanyar zubar da jini na zahiri kamar jiya ta Snap Inc. implosion yana zama abin da ya faru akai-akai.
Don sanin, faduwar kwanan nan na Netflix wani lamari ne kawai a cikin ma'ana. Adadin kasuwar ya ragu daga kololuwar $ 305 biliyan 16 ga Nuwamban da ya gabata zuwa dala biliyan 82 a halin yanzu - raguwar 73%.
Abinda ke faruwa shine, kololuwar kasuwar Netflix ta kasance mahaukaci. A lokacin kuɗin kuɗin kuɗin LTM ɗinsa na kyauta ya kasance dala miliyan 151, yana nuna adadin kuɗi 202X. Ko da kun ƙididdige mafi kyawun kuɗin tsabar kuɗi na dala biliyan 2.46 da aka buga don lokacin LTM na Maris 2021, da yawa da aka nuna abin ban dariya ne. 124X.
A halin yanzu, ba shakka, kuɗin kuɗin sa na kyauta ya koma tsarin jajayen tawada mai tarihi na kamfanin, yana buga a - $26 miliyan don lokacin LTM na Maris.
Don haka har yanzu ba a bayyana ko an daidaita kimar kamfanin ko a'a ba, amma abu daya tabbatacce ne: $ 223 biliyan asarar jarin kasuwa a cikin watanni shidan da suka gabata bai faru ba a cikin sarari. Asarar wannan girma da kwatsam, maimaita ta hanyar ƙididdigewa, zai yi tasiri ga halayen speculators da kumfa-mahaya a cikin tsayi da faɗin kasuwannin kuɗi, kuma ba ta hanya mai kyau ba.
A gaskiya ma, wannan shine ainihin zunubin hauka na Fed na kudi. Ya haifar da hasashe marasa ma'ana a kan hanyar zuwa sama, kuma yanzu da aka tilasta Fed a cikin yaƙin hauhawar farashin kaya, zai haifar da raguwa mara iyaka da raguwa a kan hanyar ƙasa.
Bugu da ƙari, wannan tsammanin ba wai kawai ya iyakance ga kasuwannin kuɗi ba ko kuma hannun jari mai zafi mai zafi. Kuma ba wai kawai wani abu ba ne na arziƙi mai sauƙi-zo-sauƙin hawan hayaƙi. Tattalin arziki na gaske kuma zai yi rauni.
Misali, fashewar kwanan nan sannan kuma rugujewar kididdigar da aka samu a cikin kasuwar refi na jinginar gidaje, misali ne mai kyau na babban tasirin koma bayan manufofin Fed, wanda a yanzu ya tayar da yawan jinginar gidaje na shekaru 30 da maki 270.
Komawa lokacin da faɗaɗa rikicin bayan-rikici ke samun dogon-in-haƙori, yanayin yanayin yanayin jinginar gida ya kai dala biliyan 171 da dala biliyan 121 a kowace kwata a cikin 2017 da 2018, bi da bi. Amma kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin jeri da ke ƙasa, lokacin da Fed ya buɗe ɓangarorin kuɗi a cikin Satumba 2019, sannan tare da tunanin mugunta a cikin Maris 2020, duk jahannama ta ɓace.
Idan aka kwatanta da matakin dala biliyan 140 a cikin Q2 2019, aikin gyaran jinginar gida ya harbi wata, ya kai kololuwa. $ 726 biliyan a cikin Q2 2021. Wannan yana wakiltar matakin daidai sau biyar Adadin al'ada, ma'ana cewa an sake dawo da miliyoyin jinginar gida a cikin kwatsam, kuma a ƙasan farashin ruwa.
Adadin Kudi na Kwata-kwata na Refi's jinginar gida:
- Q2 2019:$140B;
- Q3 2019: $211B;
- Q4 2019: $366B;
- Q1 2020: $346B;
- Q2 2020: $502B;
- Q3 2020: $620B;
- Q4 2020: $694B;
- Q1 2021: $709B;
- Q2 2021: $726B;
- Q3 2021: $583B;
- Q4 2021: $498B;
- Q1 2022: $ 424B
A halin yanzu ana ci gaba da raguwa. Adadin Refi ya ragu da kashi 42 cikin 1 a cikin Q2022 XNUMX kuma Fed yana farawa a cikin kamfen ɗin haɓaka ƙimar riba. A zahiri, har zuwa tsakiyar Maris yawan kuɗin Fed har yanzu yana da sifili.
A ci gaba, tasirin hauhawar farashin kuɗi da faɗuwar asalin jinginar gidaje za su kasance da yawa. Abu ɗaya na ɗaya, ƙaƙƙarfan farashin gida na shekaru biyu da suka gabata ba zai yi mirgina ba zato ba tsammani kuma cikin sauƙi don share kasuwanni cikin yanayi na al'ada saboda ana takushe sabbin samar da gidaje ta hanyar hauhawar kayayyaki da tsadar aiki.
Lallai, akwai hauhawar farashin kayayyaki mai yawa a kusan duk abin da ke tattare da gina gida, tare da ƙididdigar ginin gida da kashi 18% daga matakan da suka gabata, da ƙayyadaddun iyaka kan samuwar wasu abubuwa ba tare da la'akari da farashi ba. Wannan yanayin ba ya komawa kowane lokaci nan ba da jimawa ba kuma yana iya yin muni dangane da farashin makamashi da kulle-kullen China.
A halin yanzu, duk waɗancan masu siye da aka matse daga kasuwar mallakar za su yi hayar. Haka kuma matsin ba na gefe ba ne kawai. A cikin Afrilu 2021, alal misali, kashi 25% na sabbin tallace-tallacen gida an sanya su ƙasa da $300,000, yana nuna lokacin farko da masu siyan kuɗi kaɗan. A shekara ta 2022, duk da haka, kashi 10 cikin 300,000 na sabbin tallace-tallacen gida sun kasance ƙarƙashin $XNUMX.
Matsi da sauri mai ƙarfi a cikin kasuwar mallakar, bi da bi, zai ƙara haɓaka hayar haya, waɗanda tuni suka tashi sama da kashi 20% akan Y/Y bisa ga kamfanoni masu zaman kansu.
Idan aka yi la’akari da cewa hayar hayar kai tsaye da kuma hayar hayar kai tsaye (watau masu su dai-daicin haya) sun kai kashi 32% na nauyi a cikin CPI, a bayyane yake cewa ƙimar CPI na kanun kashi 8.3% baya saukowa nan da nan. Wannan yana nufin Fed ba zai sami hanyar tserewa daga matsananciyar riba mai girma ba.
Hakazalika, rugujewar kasuwar refi da ke gabatowa ba za ta bar mabukaci da ake zargi da “karfi” ya shafa ba. Babban ragi na lokaci ɗaya na kuɗin bayar da jinginar gida da aka saka a cikin 2020-2021 ƙididdiga na sama ya buɗe PCE spigot daidai gwargwado.
A zahiri, lokacin da aka haɗa tasirin refi tare da dala tiriliyan 1.9 na Biden zagaye na bazara da ya gabata, kashe kuɗin gida ya shiga ƙasa mara nauyi. Ya tashi 25.4% akan tsarin Y/Y a watan Afrilu kuma ya kasance a matakan haɓaka har zuwa ƙarshen shekara.
Amma ya zuwa Maris 2022 karfin ya riga ya ragu sosai. Kudaden gida, a gaskiya, ya kasance kawai 2.3% sama da shekarar da ta gabata, kuma a fili yana kan gaba ga lamba mara kyau a cikin Afrilu da bayan haka.
Canjin Y/Y A Real PCE, Afrilu 2020-Maris 2022
A ƙarshe, ya kamata kuma a lura da cewa dumbin kuɗin da aka tara na gida a cikin kuɗin gida saboda ƙaƙƙarfa da kuma tilasta kashe kashe kudade na yabo na Sintirin Virus shima wani lamari ne na lokaci ɗaya. Don haka, a cikin shekaru biyun da ke ƙarewa a cikin Q4 2019, adibas ɗin kuɗi na gida ya tashi da dala tiriliyan 1.45, wanda ke wakiltar ƙimar yanayin shekaru goma da suka gabata.
Amma saboda bacchanalia na kuɗaɗen bayan-Covid da kuɗaɗen kasafin kuɗi, adibas ɗin kuɗi sun haɓaka ta $ 4.84 tiriliyan ko ta 3.3X ƙimar yanayin da ta gabata tsakanin Q4 2019 da Q4 2021
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, waɗannan iskoki sun haɓaka ƙarfi da kuzari don ciyarwa, amma wannan tallan a ƙarƙashin mabukaci mai “ƙarfi” yana shirin ɓacewa kuma. A ci gaba, waɗannan ma'auni na tsabar kuɗi da ba a saba gani ba za su ragu a zahiri, maimakon karuwa sosai, ta yadda za su samar da wata kofa ta tarko a ƙarƙashin babban tattalin arzikin titi.
Ma'auni na Kuɗi na Gida, Q1 2017-Q4 2021
A takaice, duka Wall Street da manyan tattalin arzikin tituna sun lalace sosai da kuma gurbata su ta hanyar kulle-kulle, bugu na kudi na Fed, da paloozas na Washington da ke nuna cewa abubuwa da yawa za su “zama” kamar yadda aka tilasta Fed cikin yanayin tashin farashin kayayyaki.
Abin da hakan ke nufi a aikace shi ne lambobin tattalin arziki na yanzu, kamar kasuwar kasuwar SNAP, al'amari ne na yau-ya tafi-gobe. Madubin duba baya, a haƙiƙa, ingantaccen jagora ne ga ɗan abin da masu hannun jarin SNAP suka samu jiya-- farkawa mara kyau.
Sake bugawa daga marubucin Page.
-
David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
Duba dukkan posts
