A duk lokacin barkewar cutar, kafofin watsa labarai sun yi ɗokin kwatanta kididdigar Covid tsakanin ƙasashe daban-daban. Amma irin waɗannan kwatancen sau da yawa yaudara ne.
Dauki, alal misali, amfani da shari'ar Covid yana ƙidaya. Wadannan sun dogara ba kawai ga adadin mutanen da suka kamu da cutar ba har ma da adadin gwajin da aka yi. Duk da yake masu amfani don tantance ko shari'o'in suna karuwa ko raguwa a cikin wata ƙasa, suna yaudara yayin kwatanta ƙasashe. Idan da gaske muna son sani, zai zama mai sauƙi, ta hanyar binciken da bazuwar seroprevalence wanda ke auna adadin mutanen da ke da ƙwayoyin rigakafi. Amma ba duk gwamnatoci ne suka yi marmarin gudanar da waɗannan binciken ba, yayin da wasu masana kimiyya suka yi ya shiga matsala domin yin su.
Kwatanta adadin mutuwar Covid tsakanin ƙasashe, kamar yadda 'yan jaridu da yawa suka yi, yana da matsala daidai. An bayyana mutuwar Covid daban a cikin ƙasashe daban-daban, tare da bambance-bambancen matakan gwaji da matsakaicin adadin kwanakin da ake buƙata tsakanin ingantaccen gwaji da mutuwa. Don haka, ƙasashe sun bambanta da adadin mutuwar Covid da aka ruwaito wanda, na farko, ainihin dalilin Covid ne, na biyu, suna da Covid a matsayin abin ba da gudummawa amma ba a matsayin babban dalilin ba, kuma, na uku, wanda ke nuna ko mutum ya mutu. tare da maimakon daga Cutar covid.
Wannan rudani na iya haifar da wani wuce gona da iri mutuwar Covid. Idan da gaske muna son sani, zai zama da sauƙi. Za mu iya zaɓar wasu da aka bayar da rahoton mutuwar ba da gangan kuma mu ƙididdige sigogin likitancin su. Abin mamaki kadan ne aka yi irin wannan binciken.
Wasu ƙasashe ba su da rahoton mutuwar Covid. Misali, Nicaragua ta ba da rahoton mutuwar Covid kaɗan. Koyaya, daga rahotannin cewa kafintoci na aiki akan kari don cika aikin buƙatun buƙatun gawar katako na binne gawa a cikin 2020, tabbas mun san cewa adadi mai yawa na mutane suna mutuwa daga Covid a can.
Har ila yau, kafofin watsa labaru sun taru da manyan ma'auni da yawa. Misali, cutar ta zo kuma ta yi kamari a lokuta daban-daban a cikin kasashe daban-daban, har ma a cikin kasashe - kamar yadda kuke tsammani daga kowace annoba. A lokacin tashin farko a cikin 2020, an yaba wa wasu ƙasashe saboda tsauraran matakan kulle-kulle da ƙarancin mace-mace na Covid, amma raƙuman ruwa da suka biyo baya sun afkawa wasu daga cikinsu da mugun nufi wanda a yanzu suna da mafi girman adadin mace-mace a duniya.
Covid kuma yanayi ne. Wannan yana nufin cewa yana bin yanayin yanayi daban-daban a yankuna daban-daban. Wannan al'amari kuma ya dagula 'yan jarida. A cikin 2021, yawancin 'yan jarida (sau da yawa na New York) sun zargi yanayin lokacin bazara a Kudancin Amurka akan manufofin Covid. Amma lokacin da guguwar hunturu ta zo a arewacin Amurka, ya bayyana ga kowa cewa tasirin yanayi ne na yanayi.
Matsanancin ƙuntatawa na Covid, kamar waɗanda Ostiraliya, Hong Kong da New Zealand suka sanya, tabbas sun kiyaye kwayar cutar ta ɗan lokaci. Amma wannan kawai ya jinkirta abin da ba makawa. Dole ne dukkan ƙasashe su yi aikinsu ta hanyar cutar nan ba dade ko ba jima.
Haka kuma, mayar da hankali kan shari'o'in Covid, adadin mutuwa da sauransu, yayi watsi da lallacewar lafiyar jama'a daga ƙuntatawa na Covid. Waɗannan sun ba da gudummawa ga mace-mace daga wasu cututtuka, kuma irin waɗannan mutuwar suna da ban tausayi kamar mutuwar Covid. Babban ka'idar kula da lafiyar jama'a ita ce kada mutum ya taɓa mai da hankali kan cutar guda ɗaya amma ya yi la'akari da lafiyar jama'a gaba ɗaya. Ko da ma kulle-kullen sun rage mace-macen Covid, wanda babu ƙarancin shaida, dole ne mutum ya yi la'akari da cutarwar da kulle-kullen ya haifar akan wasu yanayin kiwon lafiya kamar tabarbarewar cututtukan zuciya-cututtukan zuciya, rasa gwajin cutar kansa da magani, ƙarancin allurar rigakafin yara, da tabarbarewar lafiyar hankali.
Idan aka yi la’akari da wannan duka, ta yaya za mu kwatanta yadda ƙasashe ke tafiyar da cutar? Duk da yake ba cikakke ba, hanya mafi kyau ita ce kwatanta yawan mace-mace; wato jimlar adadin mace-mace da aka yi a lokacin bala'in ya ragu da matsakaicin adadin wadanda aka kashe a shekarun da suka gabata kafin barkewar cutar. Tun da cutar ba ta ƙare ba, ba mu da cikakken hoto tukuna. Duk da haka, a labarin kwanan nan a cikin Lancetyana gabatar da adadin mace-mace na 2020-2021 ga kusan kowace ƙasa a duniya. Taswirar da ke ƙasa tana nuna sakamakon:
Rarraba kiyasin yawan mace-mace a duniya sakamakon cutar ta Covid-19, na lokacin tarawa, 2020-21Menene za mu iya koya daga waɗannan bayanan? Ta yaya aka kwatanta manyan dabaru guda uku na annoba: (a) tsarin yin-ba-komai, bari-shi-rip; (b) mayar da hankali ga kariya ga tsofaffi masu haɗari tare da iyakance iyaka akan wasu, da (c) kulle-kulle gabaɗaya da ƙuntatawa ga duk rukunin shekaru?
Belarus da Nicaragua sun yi kadan don kare tsofaffi kuma sun sanya takunkumin Covid kadan. Suna kuma bayar da rahoto a cikin mafi ƙarancin adadin mace-mace na Covid. Daga bayanan yawan mace-mace, a bayyane yake cewa ba su tsira daga cutar ba. Nicaragua ta sami asarar rayuka 274 a cikin adadin 100,000, wanda yayi daidai da matsakaicin yanki. Belarus tana da mutuwar mutane 483 a cikin 100,000, sama da matsakaicin ko dai Gabashin Turai (345) ko Turai ta Tsakiya (316).
A Yammacin Turai, ƙasashen Scandinavia suna da mafi sauki Hane-hane na Covid yayin da suke ƙoƙarin kare tsofaffi masu haɗarin gaske. Kafofin yada labaran duniya sun yi kakkausar suka kan Sweden. The Guardian, misali, rahoton a cikin 2020 cewa rayuwa a Sweden ta ji 'tabbas', tare da 'ma'aurata suna yawo da hannu a cikin hasken rana na bazara'. Yawancin 'yan jarida, 'yan siyasa da masana kimiyya sunyi tsammanin cewa sauƙaƙan taɓawar Scandinavia zai haifar da bala'i. Hakan bai faru ba. Sweden tana cikin mafi ƙarancin adadin mace-mace da aka ruwaito a Turai. Daga cikin kasashen Turai da ke da mutane sama da miliyan daya, Denmark (94), Finland (81), Norway (7), da Sweden (91) hudu ne daga cikin kasashe shida kawai da ke da yawan mace-mace kasa da 100 a cikin 100,000 mazauna, sauran biyun kuma Ireland (12) da Switzerland (93).
Me game da Burtaniya, tare da ƙarin ƙuntatawa na Covid? Idan aka kwatanta da matsakaita na Yammacin Turai na mutuwar mutane 140 a cikin 100,000, Ingila tana da 126, Scotland 131, Wales 135, da Arewacin Ireland 132.
A cikin Amurka, South Dakota ta sanya 'yan ƙuntatawa na Covid, yayin da Florida ta yi ƙoƙarin kare tsofaffi ba tare da hani da yawa ga jama'a ba. Shin hakan ya haifar da bala'in da aka annabta? A'a. Idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin ƙasa na 179 da ke mutuwa a cikin 100,000, Florida tana da 212 yayin da South Dakota ke da 156.
Kasashe a yankin kudu da hamadar Saharar Afirka sun ba da rahoton mafi ƙarancin mace-mace a duniya, tare da mutuwar bakwai a cikin 100,000, amma yawan mace-macen su shine mutuwar 102 a cikin 100,000. Idan ba tare da lambobi masu tsattsauran ra'ayi ba, ba mu san adadin wannan bambance-bambancen ba saboda rashin rahoton mutuwar Covid sabanin tsauraran matakan kulle-kullen da ya haifar. rashin abinci mai gina jiki da yunwa cikin matalauta.
Kasashen da suka fi yawan mace-mace sun hada da Bolivia (735), Bulgaria (647), Eswatini (635), Arewacin Macedonia (583), Lesotho (563), da Peru (529), ba tare da wasu kasashe da suka kai sama da 500 da suka mutu a cikin 100,000 ba. A cewar hukumar Oxford Stringency Index, Peru ta jimre da wasu ƙuntatawa na Covid a duniya yayin da waɗanda ke Bulgaria, Eswatini da Lesotho sun kasance kusa da matsakaici. Bolivia tana da tsauraran ƙuntatawa a cikin 2020, amma ba a cikin 2021 ba.
Kodayake ya kamata a kula da bayanan yawan mace-mace da taka tsantsan, sun nuna cewa ƴan wuraren da suka ƙi ƙuntatawa na Covid ba su ga adadin mutuwar da wasu suka yi hasashen ba.
Cutar ba ta ƙare ba, kuma tare da yanayin yanayi daban-daban a yankuna daban-daban da matakan rigakafi daban-daban, har yanzu wasu ƙasashe ba su ga mafi muni ba. Domin misali, kashi 40 cikin 80 na duk mutuwar Covid-2022 a Denmark sun faru ne a cikin kwanaki 97 na farko na 2022. Denmark ba ta da matsananciyar yanayin kamar Hong Kong, inda kashi XNUMX cikin XNUMX na duk mutuwar Covid ya kasance a cikin XNUMX.
Babban rauni na kididdigar yawan mace-mace shine yayin da suke kirga mutuwar Covid, ba su cika kama wadanda suka mutu ba, ba tare da la'akari da lalacewar lafiyar jama'a ba, wanda ya fito daga ƙuntatawa na Covid da kansu. Binciken cutar kansa da aka rasa ba sa haifar da mutuwa nan take, amma macen da ta rasa gwajin cutar kansar mahaifa na iya mutuwa yanzu shekaru uku ko hudu daga yanzu maimakon ta sake rayuwa shekaru 15 ko 20. Kididdigar mace-mace ba ta nuna lahani maras mutuwa ba kamar haɓaka matsalolin lafiyar kwakwalwa ko rashin damar ilimi, ko dai. Dole ne a ƙididdige waɗannan illolin da kuma magance su a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.
'Yan siyasa sun bayar da hujjar cewa ana buƙatar kulle-kulle don kare rayuka. Daga bayanan da suka wuce kima, mun san yanzu ba su kasance ba. Maimakon haka, sun ba da gudummawa ga babbar barnar da za mu yi rayuwa da ita na shekaru masu zuwa. Abin takaici ne.
A cikin littafinta na gargajiya, Maris na Wawa, ’yar tarihi Barbara Tuchman ta kwatanta yadda wasu lokuta al’ummai ke biɗan ayyuka da suka saba wa muradunsu. Ta fara da Troy da Trojan dokin kuma ta ƙare da yakin Amurka da Vietnam. Ta hanyar yin watsi da asali, ka'idodin kiwon lafiyar jama'a da suka daɗe a lokacin bala'in, yawancin al'ummomi sun bi hanyar wauta tare. Shugabannin wadancan kasashe za su samu lafiya, in ban da wasu ritaya da wuri. Barnar da aka yi wa yara, matalauta, ma’aikata da masu matsakaici, a daya bangaren, za a dauki shekaru da dama ana gyarawa.
An sake buga shi daga Spiked-Online
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Martin Kulldorff masanin cututtukan cututtuka ne kuma masanin halittu. Shi Farfesa ne na Magunguna a Jami'ar Harvard (a kan hutu) kuma Fellow a Kwalejin Kimiyya da 'Yanci. Bincikensa ya mayar da hankali kan barkewar cututtuka da kuma lura da rigakafin rigakafi da amincin magunguna, wanda ya samar da SaTScan, TreeScan, da software na RSequential kyauta. Co-Marubucin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington.
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Dr. Jay Bhattacharya likita ne, likitan dabbobi kuma masanin tattalin arziki. Shi Farfesa ne a Makarantar Kiwon Lafiya ta Stanford, Mataimakin Bincike a Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Kasa, Babban Babban Jami'in Cibiyar Nazarin Manufofin Tattalin Arziki na Stanford, Memba na Faculty a Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute, da Fellow a Kwalejin Kimiyya da 'Yanci. Binciken nasa ya mayar da hankali ne kan tattalin arziki na kiwon lafiya a duniya tare da kulawa ta musamman kan lafiya da jin dadin jama'a masu rauni. Co-Marubucin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington.
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