Yawan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a Amurka ya kasance sama da kashi 4% tun daga Afrilu 2021, 5% tun Yuni 2021, da 8% tun Maris 2022. Wannan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a watan jiya. Rahoton ya zo a 8.4%, sama da hasashen manazarta, fatan da ba a so na cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na iya fara raguwa.
A muhimmanci part na hauhawar farashin kaya a halin yanzu wani sakamako ne na zahiri na babban taimako na covid da fakitin kara kuzari da kuma samar da sarkar samar da kayayyaki da ke haifar da kulle-kulle da sauran hani.
Haɓaka hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana tilastawa mutane su daidaita salon rayuwarsu da yadda suke amfani da su da kuma karɓar ragi na rayuwa. Yaɗuwar masu amfani da baƙin ciki mai zurfi ya danganta hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da tsadar siyasa. Jama'a na da dalilai masu kyau na tambayar ko ya kamata 'yan siyasa su bi wasu tsare-tsare na siyasa da za su kauce wa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Amma ba ’yan siyasa ne kadai ke fuskantar tambayoyi game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba. Ita ma sana’ar tattalin arziki tana karkashinta bincika. Sana’a daya da aka dorawa alhakin tantancewa da kuma sanar da jama’a fa’ida da rashin amfani da manufofi daban-daban ta kasa tada hankali game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Shin masana tattalin arziki ba su ga hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na zuwa ba? Ko kuma, idan hauhawar farashin kaya ba abin mamaki ba ne, me ya sa masana tattalin arziki ba su tayar da hankali game da manufofin da suka haifar da shi ba?
Amsar waɗannan tambayoyin tana da ban tsoro. Yawancin masu sana'ar tattalin arziki sun ga cewa manufofin gwamnati na shekaru biyun da suka gabata za su haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Sai dai mafi yawan wadanda suka ga zuwan sun zabi kada su sanar da jama'a ko kuma su yi kararrawa har sai an makara.
Jason Furman, tsohon shugaban majalisar masu ba da shawara kan tattalin arziki na Shugaba Obama kuma farfesa Harvard na yanzu. sharhi kwanan nan yawancin masana tattalin arziki na ilimi sun kasance 'masu shakku (mafi yawan shiru)' game da fakitin ƙarfafawa. Haushin hauhawan da muke gani a yau wani bangare ne na farashin sana'ar tattalin arziki ta cece-kuce.
An baje kolin shuru na masana tattalin arziki game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin binciken akai-akai na manyan masana tattalin arzikin Amurka wanda hukumar ta gudanar. Ƙaddamarwa akan Kasuwannin Duniya na Jami'ar Chicago School of Business. Ƙudurin da safiyo na nufin taimaka wa masu tsara manufofi su yanke shawara kan muhawarar manufofin da ke gudana.
Babu ɗayan binciken 35 daga Janairu 2020 zuwa Mayu 2021 da ya haɗa da tambayoyi game da yuwuwar tasirin hauhawar farashin hani da fakitin agaji. Su ma wadanda suka amsa ba su kawo wannan damuwar ba a cikin amsoshinsu na kyauta ga yawancin tambayoyin bincike game da manufofin cutar covid a wannan lokacin.
Binciken ya kawo hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ne kawai a cikin watan Yuni 2021, bayan da tsammanin ci gaba da kulle-kullen ya yi kama da nisa. Majalisa ta riga ta amince da kunshin tallafin na covid, kuma hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya karu sosai.
The binciken, wanda aka buga a ranar 6 ga Yunith, 2021, ta tambayi ko manufofin kasafin kuɗi da kuɗin Amurka za su haifar da tsawan farashi. Daga cikin masana tattalin arzikin da aka yi nazari a kansu, 26% sun amince, yayin da 21% suka ki amincewa. A bayyane yake, ƴan tsirarun masana tattalin arziki sun fahimci yiwuwar hauhawar farashin hani da fakitin agaji.
Tsawon dogon shiru da jerin binciken yayi akan hauhawar farashin kaya ya haifar da shiru akan rufe makarantu. Daidai da rashin kulawar masana tattalin arziki ga farashin ƙuntatawa na covid, jerin binciken bai taɓa tambaya ba game da bala'i tsadar dan Adam da tattalin arziki na rufe makarantar ga yaran Amurka.
Ka'idar Rigakafi da Ƙaunar Kulle
Labarin ya koma Maris 2020, lokacin da masana tattalin arziki, tare da keɓancewa kaɗan, suka ɗauki hanyar da ba ta dace ba game da manufofin kulle-kulle.
A cikin Maris 2020, gwamnatoci a Amurka da sauran ƙasashen Yamma sun sanya wani tsari na tsare-tsare wanda ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba - kulle-kulle, umarnin zama a gida, dokar hana fita, da rufe makarantu - a wani yunƙuri mara amfani na dakile yaduwar cutar sankara. Wadannan ayyukan gwamnati cikin sauri sun tattara hankalin masana tattalin arziki da yawa wadanda suka shirya yin aiki kan kokarin fahimtar ko kulle-kullen manufa ce mai kyau.
Jerin binciken yana kwatanta ƙarfi da ƙwararrun masana tattalin arziƙi da lankwasa na kulle-kulle. Misali, ranar 27 ga Maristh, 2020 binciken aka tambaye shi ko watsi da matsananciyar kulle-kulle zai haifar da ƙarin lalacewar tattalin arziki. Daga cikin masana tattalin arzikin da aka bincika, kashi 80% sun yarda, yayin da babu wani daga cikin masana tattalin arzikin da aka bincikar da ya nuna rashin amincewa. Kwanaki kaɗan bayan kulle-kullen farko na Amurka, shugabannin masana tattalin arziki sun musanta kasancewar duk wani rashin tabbas na kimiyya game da kulle-kulle a matsayin manufa.
Wane dalili masana tattalin arziki suka yi amfani da su don isa ga ƙaunar kulle-kullensu? Saitin farko na nazarin tattalin arziki na kulle-kulle idan aka kwatanta farashin kulle-kulle (aunawa ta kasuwanci da samun kudin shiga na mutum wanda aka rasa) akan fa'idodin da ake tsammani na kulle-kulle (aunawa da darajar dala na shekarun rayuwar da aka ajiye saboda an zaci raguwar cututtuka). Sakamakon ya nuna kulle-kulle yana da tsada amma har yanzu yana da darajar ƙimar tattalin arzikinsu.
Waɗannan ƙididdigar sun yi amfani da daidaitaccen tsarin tattalin arziƙi-kowane aiki yana da farashi da fa'ida-duk da haka ba zai yuwu a shawo kan jama'a don tallafawa kulle-kulle ba. Sanya darajar dala a kowace shekara ta rayuwa yana da ma'ana ga masana tattalin arziki amma yana da kasa a idon jama'a.
Ka'idar yin taka tsantsan ta kasance mahimmin jigon waɗannan binciken na farkon kulle-kulle, wanda ya yi daidai a cikin Maris 2020. Har yanzu akwai rashin tabbas na kimiyya game da kaddarorin kwayar cutar, gami da kamuwa da cutar da kuma adadin mace-macen kamuwa da ita, kodayake girman girman shekarun haɗarin mace-mace daga covid ya riga ya kasance. da aka sani. Matsakaicin girman shekarun ya nuna cewa madadin manufar kariyar mai da hankali na iya adana rayuwa ba tare da lahani na kulle-kulle ba.
Koyaya, aikace-aikacen masana tattalin arziki na ka'idar yin taka tsantsan abin takaici ne mai gefe daya. Manazarta tattalin arziki sun ɗauka mafi muni game da kwayar cutar kuma mafi kyau game da tasirin kulle-kulle da sauran hani a iyakance yaduwar cutar. A daidai Yin amfani da ƙa'idar taka tsantsan kuma zai kasance mafi muni game da illolin da ke tattare da hane-hane.
Ƙullawar Kai da Firgici na Cika Kai
Saitin na biyu na nazarin tattalin arziƙin na kulle-kulle ya zo a cikin Afrilu 2020 kuma sun fi tasiri fiye da na farko.
Masana tattalin arziki sun kafa waɗannan nazarce-nazarce akan sauƙi mai sauƙi: bayanan wayar salula sun nuna cewa mutane da son rai sun rage motsinsu kafin hukumomin yankin su sanya dokar hana fita. Masana tattalin arziki sun yi tunanin cewa yawancin lalacewar tattalin arzikin da aka samu a lokacin bazara na 2020 ba ta hanyar kulle-kulle ne ya haifar ba amma ta hanyar da son rai canjin hali saboda tsoron mutane na covid.
A fadi da dadewa yarjejeniya da sauri kafa daga masana tattalin arziki: kulle-kulle na yau da kullun ba su sanya wani babban farashi ga jama'a. Manufar gwamnati mafi shiga tsakani a cikin tsararraki - kulle-kulle - ana ganin ba zato ba tsammani a matsayin abincin rana kyauta.
Masana tattalin arziki sun yi tunanin cewa kwayar cutar, ba kulle-kulle ba, ta haifar da illa ga tattalin arziki. Babu wani ciniki tsakanin yaduwar kwayar cuta da tattalin arziki, masana tattalin arziki sun shiga ciki. Makulli zai dakatar da kwayar cutar, kuma kulle-kullenmu ba zai sanya farashi mai ma'ana ga al'umma ko dai a gida ko na duniya ba (duk da tattalin arzikin duniya da ke da alaka da shi), masana tattalin arziki sun yi tunani.
Tunanin cewa mutane za su kulle da son rai ta wata hanya ce ta zage-zage kuma ta yi watsi da babban tasirin rarrabuwar kawuna. Kullewa yana sanya takunkumi iri ɗaya akan kowa, ko za su iya ɗaukar cutar ko a'a. Koyaya, masana tattalin arziki da yawa sun goyi bayan sanya dokar kulle-kulle da odar matsuguni maimakon ba da shawarar lafiyar jama'a.
Masana ilimin cututtukan dabbobi sun san girman girman shekarun tsufa a cikin haɗarin mace-mace daga kamuwa da cuta daga farkon cutar. Wannan yana nufin cewa tsofaffi masu rauni sun kasance masu hikima don ɗaukar matakan rigakafi. Waɗannan umarni na yau da kullun suna nufin waɗanda cutar ta haifar da ƙarancin haɗari amma waɗanda suka sami babban lahani daga kulle-kulle-kamar yara, matasa, matalauta, da rukunin ma'aikata - ba za su iya guje wa mummunan cutarwa ba.
Masana tattalin arziki sun ba da hujjar kulle-kulle ta hanyar tunanin cewa mutane sun firgita yadda ya kamata. Koyaya, wani muhimmin sashi na tsoron covid ya kasance rashin hankali, wanda ya sa mutane da yawa suka yi fushi da cutar. Bincike ya nuna cewa mutane sarari fiye da kima kasadar mace-mace da asibiti na covid da sarari rashin sanin cikakken farashi da matakin wanda kasada ke tashi tare da shekaru.
Misali, wani bincike ya nuna cewa ga wadanda basu kai shekara 40 ba, matsakaicin adadin mace-macen da ake samu daga kamuwa da cutar ya kai daya. dubu sau sama da kimanin adadin mace-mace (10% a kan 0.01%). Ko da yake an buga binciken farko game da wuce gona da iri na cutar a cikin Afrilu 2020, kafofin watsa labarai irin su New York Times sun jira har sai Maris 2021 kafin tattaunawa wuce gona da iri, yana nuna rashin son yarda da waɗannan gaskiyar.
Tsoron jama'a na covid don haka bai dace da ainihin gaskiyar cutar ba. Wannan ya rusa hujjar masana tattalin arziki na cewa mutane sun zauna gida da son rai a matsayin martani mai ma'ana ga yaduwar cutar ta COVID-2020 a cikin bazarar XNUMX.
Har yanzu sana'ar tattalin arziki ba ta gano irin rawar da kulle-kulle suka taka ba wajen haifar da fargabar yawan fargabar cutar. An fuskanci karancin bayanan jama'a game da hadarin da ke tattare da cutar, mutane sun nemi infer kasadar wani bangare daga manufofin da aka lura - kulle-kulle ɗaya ne irin waɗannan manufofin.
Saboda kulle-kulle wata manufa ce da ba a taɓa yin irin ta ba a ƙasashen Yamma, sun ba jama'a alamar wani haɗari mai ban mamaki. Kuma saboda kulle-kulle ya sanya dokar hana zirga-zirga a kan jama'a, yana iya ɓatar da jama'a don yin imani cewa haɗarin kamuwa da cuta ga matasa ya kusan kusan girma kamar yadda yake ga tsofaffi. A hakikanin gaskiya, haɗarin mace-mace ga tsofaffi ya kasance a ninka dubu sama da na matasa. A wasu kasashen, da yanke shawara to tsoro yawan jama'a da ingiza wuce gona da iri na cutar covid ya kasance a bayyane.
Kamar yadda 2020 ke sa masana tattalin arziki ba su da sha'awar sake nazarin tallafin sana'ar na kulle-kulle. Daga cikin masana tattalin arziki, babban lalacewar tattalin arzikin duniya da gazawar kulle-kulle don dakatar da yaduwar kwayar cutar an dora alhakin kulle-kullen da ba a yi daidai ba.
Misali, da binciken wanda aka buga a ranar 6 ga Oktoba, 2020, an tambaye shi ko tattalin arzikin zai yi ƙarfi idan umarnin zama-a-gida ya fi tsayi kuma ya fi uniform. Kusan rabin masana tattalin arzikin da aka bincika sun yarda (49%), yayin da 7% kawai ba su yarda ba.
Wannan yarjejeniya ta hada-hadar ta sanya sana'ar tattalin arziki shiru kan duk manufofin covid da suka hada da kulle-kulle, rufe makarantu da fakitin kara kuzari har zuwa latti.
Tauye Kai
Tun daga lokacin bazara na 2020, masana tattalin arziki suna da kwakkwaran kwarin gwiwa don tantance kansu game da tsadar matakan covid saboda tsoron kada a ga sun fita daga mataki tare da cimma matsaya cikin gaggawa cewa matakan covid sun zo ba tare da wani babban farashi ga jama'a ba.
Masana tattalin arziki sun yi watsi da duk wani rashin amincewa daga yarjejeniyar kulle-kullen. A kan Twitter da sauran wurare, waɗancan kaɗan waɗanda suka jajircewa rashin amincewa an yi musu lakabi da ƙwanƙwasa ko kisa.
Ko da a ƙarshen Satumba 2021, masana tattalin arziki masu tasiri sun nemi dakatar da muhawara game da kulle-kulle. Misali, Austan Goolsbee, farfesa a Jami'ar Chicago kuma tsohon shugaban majalisar masu ba da shawara kan tattalin arziki na Shugaba Obama. sharadi cewa duk wanda ya kuskura ya yi tambaya game da ka'idojin kulle-kullen masana tattalin arziki ya zama 'kunya'. Irin waɗannan hukunce-hukuncen kan muhawara daga shugabannin ƙwararrun sun sanya ya zama mai tsada ga mutane da yawa su faɗi ra'ayoyinsu game da manufofin Covid kamar kulle-kulle da rufe makarantu.
Yana da kyau a lura cewa Jason Furman, farfesa Harvard kuma tsohon shugaban majalisar masu ba da shawara kan tattalin arziki na Shugaba Obama, kwanan nan. yanke hare-haren da aka kai wa wadanda suka bayyana ra'ayoyinsu da kuma shawara cewa irin wadannan hare-haren na iya sa shi ma ya yi shiru kan rufe makarantu. Irin waɗannan maganganu masu ƙarfi daga masanan tattalin arziki masu tasiri na iya haifar da ƙarin tunani a cikin sana'ar da buɗe muhawara kan manufofin Covid. Amma na dogon lokaci sana'ar tattalin arziki ta bar ta 'yan jarida da kuma masu sharhi don haskaka ko da mafi bayyananne aibi a cikin haɗin gwiwar Covid na sana'ar.
A yau wannan sana’a ta cece-kuce da kai na jawo asarar jama’a ta hanyar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Akwai wasu keɓancewa ga wannan tauye kai a tsakanin masana tattalin arziki, amma gargaɗin masana tattalin arziki game da hauhawar farashin kaya an fara bayar da shi ne ta hanyar mafi girman kunya, kwanciyar hankali mai yuwuwa, wanda bai dace da masana tattalin arziki ba.
Misali, farfesa Harvard Lawrence Summers, tsohon jami'in gwamnatin Clinton da Obama, galibi ana daukarsa a matsayin masanin tattalin arziki da ba kasafai ba wanda ya gargadi jama'a, duk da haka har wannan gargadin ya zo. marigayi kuma abin mamaki ne tafe da kuma m.
Budaddiyar muhawarar jama'a mai ƙarfi tsakanin masana tattalin arziki game da tsadar takunkumin hana zirga-zirga da fakitin agaji na gwamnati da ba su hana duk hauhawar farashin kaya ba. Koyaya, da masana tattalin arziki sun yi amfani da 'yan siyasa da jama'a tare da cikakkiyar fahimta game da illar hani da fakitin agaji, da yuwuwa gwamnatoci sun bi wasu tsare-tsare masu sassaucin ra'ayi wadanda zasu haifar da raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Rashin gargadi game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki daga masana tattalin arziki yana da ƙarin farashi. Shirun masana tattalin arziki na son kai na zubar da amanar jama'a ga wannan sana'a. Wannan raguwar amana zai sa masana tattalin arziki su yi wahala su ba da gudummawa ga manufofin jama'a a shekaru masu zuwa.
Idan akwai rufin azurfa yana cikin tunatarwa sosai cewa jama'a sun samu game da tsadar ƙididdiga da tantance kai. Ko masana kimiyya ne ke ba da rahoton kansu ko ɗimbin ɗimbin ɗimbin yawa suna yin katsalandan da lalata masana kimiyyar da ba su yarda da su ba, ba da izini ba koyaushe yana raunana ingancin muhawarar. Amma waɗannan iyakoki akan buɗaɗɗen muhawara mai ƙarfi kuma za su sami tsadar gaske. Abin takaici, wannan yana nuna da kyau da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a yau.
Jama'a sun biya babban farashi don kurakuran nazarin tattalin arziki. Misali, Amurka za ta iya gujewa rufe makarantu masu cike da bala'i idan masana tattalin arziki sun yi amfani da ka'idar taka tsantsan akai-akai a cikin bazarar 2020. Idan sun yi haka, masana tattalin arziki da sun tayar da kararrawa game da matsalar bala'i kudin rufe makarantu maimakon.
Haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya bayyana sarai dalilin da ya sa ra'ayin masana tattalin arziki ya ɓace sosai. hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya bayyana a fili cewa kulle-kulle da sauran hane-hane-da kuma yunƙurin sassauta tasirin su tare da ɗimbin taimako da fakitin kara kuzari - ba su kasance abincin rana kyauta ba, sabanin yunƙurin masana tattalin arziki amma ba da shawarar jama'a ba. Hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya sa masana tattalin arziki da wahala su boye kurakuran su.
Wataƙila za a iya guje wa wannan kuskure tare da ƙarin buɗaɗɗen muhawara. Wasu kungiyoyi, kamar Hukumar Abinci ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, sun yi kokarin sanar da jama'a da wuri game da tsadar kulle-kulle. Binciken nasu ya yi gargadin cewa rugujewar kasuwancin duniya da durkushewar tattalin arzikin duniya sakamakon kulle-kullen kasashe masu arziki a lokacin bazara na 2020 zai tura mutane miliyan 130 a cikin kasashe matalauta. yunwa.
Koyaya, da alama a cikin dare ɗaya, sana'a ɗaya da ke da alhakin ƙididdige duk kasuwancin rayuwa ta yanke shawara sosai - kuma tare da ƙarancin shaida - ƙuntatawa na covid ba ta sanya wani muhimmin ciniki ba. Wani rahoto na Afrilu 2020 game da tattalin arzikin duniya na Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya ya kira lokacin Babban Kulle, amma duk da haka kulle-kulle ba su cutar da tattalin arziki ba.
Makullin lokacin bazara na 2020 yana iya haifar da raguwar tattalin arziki fiye da yarjejeniya tsakanin masana tattalin arziki har yanzu. Ko da yake tunanin masana tattalin arziki da ke tabbatar da ra'ayin covid ya kasance mara kyau tun da farko, sana'ar ba ta son yin nazarin abubuwan da ke tattare da wuce gona da iri na cutar da kuma yanke shawarar haifar da tsoro a cikin jama'a.
A karshe dai ko masana tattalin arziki za su iya dawo da amanar jama’a ya danganta da gaskiyarsu wajen amincewa da gazawar sana’ar. Sana'ar tana buƙatar gyara domin rashin amincewa da koyarwar addinin ya sami kwarin gwiwa kuma ana ganin sa ido a kai a matsayin gazawa wajen aiwatar da muhimman ayyukan ƙwararrun masana tattalin arziki.
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Dr. Jay Bhattacharya likita ne, likitan dabbobi kuma masanin tattalin arziki. Shi Farfesa ne a Makarantar Kiwon Lafiya ta Stanford, Mataimakin Bincike a Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Kasa, Babban Babban Jami'in Cibiyar Nazarin Manufofin Tattalin Arziki na Stanford, Memba na Faculty a Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute, da Fellow a Kwalejin Kimiyya da 'Yanci. Binciken nasa ya mayar da hankali ne kan tattalin arziki na kiwon lafiya a duniya tare da kulawa ta musamman kan lafiya da jin dadin jama'a masu rauni. Co-Marubucin Babban Sanarwa na Barrington.
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Mikko Packalen mataimakin farfesa ne a fannin tattalin arziki a Jami'ar Waterloo.
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