[Jason Onke babban marubuci ne a kan wannan yanki]
Ƙididdigar Fatality Infection (IFR) ta ƙididdige adadin yawan mace-mace a cikin duk waɗanda ke da kamuwa da cuta: waɗanda aka gano (masu cutar) da waɗanda ke da cututtukan da ba a gano su ba (asymptomatic da ƙungiyar da ba a gwada su ba).
Ana amfani da IFR don yin ƙididdige adadin adadin mace-mace a cikin jama'a gaba ɗaya. Idan adadi ne mai yawa yana kusantar kashi ɗaya cikin ɗari, to samfuran da aka ƙirƙira na iya ba da rahoton adadin mace-mace masu ban tsoro - yana ba da kuzari ga kulle-kulle.
A farkon barkewar cutar, Kwalejin Imperial ta London Rahoton 9 ya ƙirƙira tasirin cutar ta covid dangane da buga ta Gaskiya et al. akan 13 Maris 2020, wanda ya kiyasta IFR a matsayin kashi 0.9.
Wannan IFR ya haifar da ƙididdiga masu ƙima 'a cikin wata annoba da ba a daidaita ba, za mu yi hasashen mutuwar kusan 510,000 a GB da miliyan 2.2 a Amurka.'
Marubutan sun rubuta wannan: “Koyaya, sakamakon raguwar barkewar cutar na iya haifar da ɗaruruwan dubunnan mace-mace da tsarin kiwon lafiya (musamman rukunin kulawa mai zurfi) da yawa sau da yawa. Ga ƙasashen da za su iya cim ma ta, wannan ya bar murkushewa a matsayin zaɓin manufofin da aka fi so."
A kwanan nan bazawa ta masu bincike na Stanford dangane da binciken da ake yi na seroprevalence a cikin zamanin riga-kafi na covid yana ba da ƙarin ƙaƙƙarfan ƙididdigewa na IFR.
A cikin karatun 32, matsakaicin IFR na COVID-19 an kiyasta ya zama 0.035% ga mutanen da ke tsakanin shekaru 0-59 da 0.095% na waɗanda shekarunsu suka wuce 0-69.
Mun kwatanta kididdigar IFR guda biyu, wanda ke nuna ƙididdiga na Kwalejin Imperial sun fi na Stanford girma a cikin ƙungiyoyin shekaru.
Ƙididdiga IFR a farkon matakin fashewa yana da kuskuren kuskure wanda ya kamata ya zo tare da gargadi. Nazarin antibody yana ba da ingantaccen fahimtar mutane nawa ne suka kamu da cutar kuma suna ba da izinin ƙarin ƙimar IFR. Koyaya, a farkon bala'in cutar, ba a samun irin waɗannan karatun — Verity et al. sun danganta IFR akan bayanan kasar Sin da kuma shari'o'i 1,334 kawai a wajen kasar Sin. An kiyasta adadin mace-macen akan shari'a guda ɗaya kawai a cikin waɗanda ke ƙasa da 19.
Maimakon samfuri na farko da tsinkaya, madadin dabarar ita ce bincikar bayanai yayin da suke fitowa: aiwatar da abin da ke gudana. Mun yi wannan, kuma ya zuwa Afrilu 2020, mun rubuta cewa yana ƙara fitowa fili cewa 'Tsarin shekaru da abin ya shafa bai dace da ka'idar annoba ba. '
Ƙididdiga na farko na IFR daga Kwalejin Imperial an yi ƙima sosai a cikin shekaru da yawa idan aka kwatanta da na Stanford's seroprevalence karatun - fiye da sau goma a cikin waɗanda ke ƙasa da 19. Amma ta yaya aka kwatanta da ainihin bayanai?
Kwalejin Imperial ta yi annabta cewa kashi 81% na yawan mutanen GB za su kamu da cutar a duk lokacin da cutar. A ranar 31 ga Disamba 2021, binciken kamuwa da ONS ya kiyasta cewa kashi 81% na mutanen Ingila suna da COVID-19. ONS ta ba da rahoton mutuwar mutane 87 da aka yi rajista a cikin 0 zuwa 19 masu shekaru a Ingila da Wales zuwa wannan kwanan wata.
Mun yi amfani da waɗannan bayanan don ƙididdige IFR a cikin masu shekaru 0-19 dangane da miliyan 11.36 (81% na yawan jama'a) a cikin wannan rukunin shekarun da suka kamu da cutar a ƙarshen 2021. Wannan ya ba da ƙimar IFR na 0.0008% (duba adadi).
Sakamakon wuce gona da iri na IFR yana da zurfi. Yana wuce gona da iri na adadin mace-mace kuma yana tasiri ga yanke shawara na siyasa ba tare da la'akari da cutarwa na dogon lokaci da tasirin jin daɗin rayuwa ba.
Yin kima da IFR ba sabon abu bane. Misali, a cikin cutar ta murar alade, an ba da rahoton IFR da ta biyo bayan bullar cutar a matsayin kashi 0.02%, ninki biyar kasa da mafi ƙarancin ƙiyasin lokacin barkewar.
Akwai ƙarin matsaloli tare da IFR don yin la'akari. Na farko, yana ɗaukar duk mace-mace tare da gwajin tabbatacce na PCR ko Covid akan takardar shaidar mutuwa ta SARS-CoV-2 ne ya haifar da ita. Wannan ba haka bane, kamar yadda muke da shi aka nuna. IFR kuma ba ta lissafta mutuwar asibiti ko hadaddiyar mu'amalar cututtuka masu yawa da kuma aikin haddasawa.
An analysis bambance-bambancen sanadi a cikin 'yan ƙasa da shekaru 18, sabanin waɗanda suka mutu ta wani dalili amma sun kamu da cutar kwatsam, sun ba da rahoton adadin mace-mace a cikin shekaru 18 na biyu a kowace miliyan - yana ba da shawarar IFR na 0.0002%, kuma covid mai yuwuwa shine sanadin mutuwa a kusan kashi ɗaya bisa huɗu na matasa lokacin da aka yi rajista akan mutuwar.
Kiran ka'idar yin taka tsantsan don yaɗuwar amfani da hane-hane bisa hasashen bala'i kuma yana jadada rashin fahimtar tushen ƙa'idar: yi aiki kawai lokacin da kuka tabbatar cewa fa'idodin ayyukanku sun fi mummunan sakamako. Babu irin wannan shaidar da ta wanzu a lokacin, saboda ba a yi la'akari da kulle-kulle ba a cikin shirye-shiryen cutar da ke akwai.
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