Amsar Covid ba kuskure ba ce, kuma ba sakamakon gaggawar magance wani rikici ba ne sakamakon cutar sankarau. Mutane da yawa ne, galibi ƙwararru a fagen, cikin tsari da haɗin kai suna yin abin da suka san ba daidai ba ne. Yana da taimako lokacin da aka tsara wannan bisa tsari, domin irin waɗannan hujjoji za su iya zama tushen abin da zai hana a sake maimaita shi.
A farkon 2025, wasu masana kididdiga daga Scotland da Switzerland sun rubuta takarda ta tattaunawa tare da wata alama (na Scots da Swiss) ba a bayyana ba, har ma da ban sha'awa, take: "Wasu fannonin ƙididdiga na martanin Covid-19.” An bayyana kimiyya mai kyau a fili ba tare da fanfare ba, yayin da sanarwar "bam", ko makamancin haka ya nuna bukatar yin ado da kyau bayanai yana magana ne kawai idan mutane sun karanta shi.
An rubuta takardar, ta Wood da mawallafa, don gabatarwa a taron Royal Statistical Society a Afrilu 2025 a London. Ya kasance ɗayan mafi kyawun sake dubawa na farkon martani ga Covid - a wannan yanayin tare da mai da hankali kan Burtaniya amma ya dace a duniya. Duk da haka, wasu mutane ba sa karanta littafin Jaridar Royal Statistical Society - Jerin A: Kididdiga a cikin Al'umma, ko halartar taronsu na London. Abin tausayi, kamar yadda London ke da kyau na kwanaki uku a lokacin rani kuma wannan musamman Royal Society da alama yana da fahimtar gaskiya rashi a wasu na 'yan uwanta.
Takardar tana ba da gaskiyar ƙididdiga masu sauƙi, kamar yadda masu ƙididdiga ya kamata. Gaskiya na da mahimmanci musamman idan aka yi amfani da su a kan batutuwan da rashin gaskiya suka fi riba. Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa, a cikin lafiyar jama'a, sun zama masu wuya, sabili da haka ya kamata a karanta. Faɗin gaskiya cikin ɓacin rai game da Covid yana taimakawa wajen fahimtar yadda amsawar lafiyar jama'a ta kasance a zahiri.
Covid da Tattalin Arziki
Kiwon lafiyar jama'a ya kasance koyaushe yana dogaro sosai kan lafiyar tattalin arziki, don haka marubutan sun kafa wurin ta hanyar bayyana zahirin tattalin arziƙin na martanin gwamnatocin Yammacin Turai waɗanda suka yanke shawara a farkon 2020 cewa buga kuɗi ya fi sauƙi fiye da sa mutane suyi aiki don samar da haraji:
Ƙirƙirar kuɗi yayin rage ayyukan tattalin arziƙi na gaske tabbas hauhawar farashi ne.
Sakamakon haka:
Haɓakar hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki shine hanya ɗaya da rugujewar ta haifar da haɓaka tabarbarewar tattalin arziki….
Wannan yana da mahimmanci, saboda mun san wannan tun kafin 2020 (Romawa sun san shi) kuma mun kuma san cewa sakamakon rashin tattalin arziki zai rage tsawon rayuwa. Wannan Kiwon Lafiyar Jama'a 101 ne, kuma kowane likitan lafiyar jama'a ya san lokacin da Covid ya fara.
A fannin kiwon lafiyar jama'a, mun fahimci cewa akwai ciniki tsakanin kashe kudi don ceton mutum daya ko kuma ware su a wani wuri don ceton wasu da dama. Idan kawai muna ciyarwa ba tare da iyaka ba, dukkanmu muna fama da talauci sannan ba za mu iya ba da tallafin kiwon lafiya da gaske ba. Wannan ba rikitarwa ba ne, mutane sun fahimci shi. Shi ya sa ba mu da na’urar daukar hoto ta MRI a kowane kauye. Don haka muna yin kiyasin nawa ne za a ceci rayuwa ba tare da talauta al’umma fiye da kima ba, sannan a yi hasarar da yawa. Itace da abokan aiki sun kalli ƙa'idar Burtaniya don wannan idan aka kwatanta da farashin kulle-kulle:
Duk wani ma'auni mai ma'ana na farashin kowace shekara ta rayuwa da aka ceto daga Covid ta hanyar ba da magunguna ba ya wuce £ 30k a kowace shekara ta rayuwa wanda NICE (Cibiyar Kula da Lafiya ta Burtaniya ta Burtaniya) ke amfani da ita yayin amincewa da gabatar da Tsarin Magunguna……
[Amfani da manyan 500,000 da aka annabta mutuwa tare da ƙaramin sa hannun Neil Ferguson et al. a Kwalejin Imperial, wannan] yana ba da kuɗi a kowace shekara ta rayuwa sama da sau 10 madaidaicin NICE.
Har ila yau, wannan shine ainihin lafiyar jama'a. Bayar da albarkatun kiwon lafiya lamari ne mai rikitarwa kamar yadda yake (daidai) yana da alaƙa da ɗabi'a da jin daɗi, amma a ma'aunin al'umma shine yadda muke sarrafa kasafin kuɗin lafiyar mu. A wannan yanayin, lambobin da aka annabta za a adana su ta hanyar ɗimbin kuɗaɗen kulle-kulle ba su da ma'ana daga nesa.
Koyaya, gwamnatin Burtaniya, kamar gwamnatocin sauran wurare a ƙarƙashin sahihan kafofin watsa labaru-Pharma, sun yi watsi da farashi da ƙididdigar fa'ida kuma sun yi ƙasa ba tare da la'akari da su ba. GASKIYA DAGA CIKIN SAUKI CIKIN SAUKI A CIKIN HAKA Sun san yakin sanya tsoro bai dace ba; kamfen na rashin fahimta da nufin jama'ar da suka biya su. Itace da abokan aiki suna ba da "ɗayan misalan misalan:"
Wani hoton gwamnati da aka nuna wanda ke nuna wata lafiyayyar mace 'yar shekara 20 a cikin abin rufe fuska mai taken 'Na sanya wannan don kare ku. Da fatan za a sa naku don kare ni.'
Haƙiƙanin bayanin haɗarin da gwamnatin Burtaniya da SPI-B suke da shi a wancan lokacin an nuna su a cikin Hoton da ke ƙasa, wanda aka bayar a cikin takarda.
Wannan shi ne inda masu kididdiga ke da amfani - don samar da mahallin a maimakon labari da tsoro. Suna bayar da sakamako mai kyau:
Ƙididdigar yanzu mafi kyawun lokacin dawowar babban dutsen mai aman wuta na wayewar da ke kawo ƙarshen girman cewa mazauna birni ba za su iya rayuwa ba shine shekaru dubu 17 (Rougier et al., 2018). Ko da kawai idan aka yi la'akari da shekaru biyu na cutar ta barke wannan yana iya girma fiye da haɗarin Covid ga matar da aka kwatanta.
Don haka a ma'ana, idan suna da ma'ana game da Covid, ya kamata gwamnatin Burtaniya a yanzu ta kasance tana kashe tattalin arzikinsu don shirya sakamakon babban dutsen mai aman wuta. Amma kada mu ba da shawarar hakan, saboda suna iya yin hakan.
Bayanin Covid Burden
Yunkurin gwamnatin Burtaniya na yaudarar jama'a game da hadarin Covid-19 ba lamari ne na ma'amala da kwayar cutar da ba a san ta ba, kamar yadda da yawa ke ikirarin yanzu:
An san haɗarin farkon 2020: Gimbiya Diamond, da misali Verity et al., 2020; Wood et al., 2020, daga bayanan Sinanci.
Bayanai na mutuwa daga Hoto na 3 (B) a ciki Gaskiya et al. An buga shi a cikin Maris 2020 ta Kwalejin Imperial London, lura da ƙarancin haɗarin mutuwar Covid tsakanin matasa da masu matsakaicin shekaru (watau waɗanda aka cire daga aiki da makaranta).
Ko da kuwa, gwamnatin Burtaniya ta ci gaba da cewa Covid ya kasance mai tsanani kuma mai rauni a cikin samari masu dacewa, mai yuwuwa (kamar yadda bayanin Wood da haɗin gwiwar marubuta) ta amfani da ƴan wasan kwaikwayo da labarun ƙirƙira, kuma ta haka kawai yin ƙarya ga mutane. Ofishin Kididdiga na Kasa (ONS) na Burtaniya ya yi nasa bangaren, kamar yadda marubutan suka nuna daga karatu daban-daban, kuma suna ba da cikakken bayani game da yawan dogon Covid.
Shawarar SPI-B game da abin rufe fuska ita ma baƙon abu ce, kasancewar sun yi hannun riga da nasu ambaton, ta haka ne ke yin karin girman tasirin su. Wannan wani bakon al’amari ne – me ya sa gwamnati za ta shawo kan jama’a su rufe fuskokinsu, da sanin cewa sun kafa shawararsu ne a kan karya, suna adawa da shawarar da ta gabata, kuma hakan ba zai taimaka wa kowa ba? Wannan shine inda mugun nufi ya fara ƙara kama wani ɓangare na tsarin.
Sai marubutan su lura:
Irin wannan ɓarna da zaɓin yin amfani da shaidar ƙididdiga ba ta iyakance ga kafofin watsa labarai kawai ba. Misali a cikin 2021 shawarar gwamnatin Scotland ta kan layi akan rufe fuska ta bayyana hakan
Shaidar kimiyya da shawarwarin asibiti da lafiyar jama'a sun bayyana a sarari cewa rufe fuska muhimmin bangare ne na dakatar da yaduwar cutar ta coronavirus.
kuma ya ba da hanyar haɗi don shaidar kimiyya. Wannan ya zama taƙaitaccen bayani na SPI-B/SAGE18, wanda ya kawo wasu shaidun kimiyya guda biyu, da alama yana ba da shawarar rage watsawa daga abin rufe fuska na 6-15%, ko har zuwa 45%, bi da bi. Takardar da aka ambata a matsayin shaida ga adadi na farko a zahiri edita ne (Cowling da Leung, 2020), wanda kuma ya nuna cewa takardar da aka ambata a cikin adadi na 45% (Mitze et al., 2020) ba ta da kyau (tsarin ya bayyana ya kasa ɗaukar karar da saka abin rufe fuska yana da cutarwa, misali). Adadin editan yana faɗin nazarin meta-bincike da kyau (Brainard et al., 2020) wanda a zahiri ya ƙare.
. . .sanya abin rufe fuska na iya ɗan rage rashin daidaituwar kamuwa da cuta ta farko tare da [mura kamar rashin lafiya] da kusan 6 zuwa 15% [. . . ] Wannan shaida ce mara inganci.
Har ila yau, wannan gwamnati ta kasance tana yaudarar jama'arsu ba tare da wata shakka ba zuwa ga wani babban canjin hali tare da samun shaidar cewa ba za ta yi amfani ba; ko dai sakaci ko kuma karya kawai.
Madawwami
Tattaunawar Itace da abokan aiki akan ƙididdige yawan mace-mace ya zama mai ban sha'awa sosai, yana nuna irin wahalar gaske. Na farko, lokacin da Covid ya buge a cikin 2020, jariran da aka haifa nan da nan bayan yakin duniya na biyu suna cika shekaru 75. Akwai karin jarirai 31% da aka haifa a Burtaniya a cikin shekarar bayan karshen yakin idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, kuma yawan haihuwa ya ci gaba a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Babu wani sihiri game da 75, amma batu shine tarin jama'ar Birtaniya, wanda aka haifa a cikin 'yan shekarun bayan yakin, suna shiga shekaru na karuwa da sauri.
Wannan shi ne direban 'mutuwar mace-mace' da ba a tattauna ko'ina ba. Yana nufin ya kamata a sami karuwar mace-mace a cikin 2020, kuma a cikin shekaru masu zuwa (watau sama da na yau da kullun idan aka kwatanta da kafin 2020, amma ba da gaske ya wuce gona da iri ba idan an daidaita shi don shekaru). Wannan yana da mahimmanci don fahimtar yawan wuce gona da iri, ko da'awar ya fito daga 'Covid,' alurar riga kafi, ko wani abu dabam. Duk da haka, baya lissafin hauhawar mace-mace a cikin ƙananan shekaru, ko kuma rate na mutuwa a kowane zamani.
Wata babbar matsalar da ke tattare da lambobin Covid ita ce, kamar yadda marubutan suka lura, mutane gabaɗaya suna mutuwa sau ɗaya kawai. Don haka,
Tarin yawan mace-mace [su ne] ya yi ƙasa da 212,247 da aka yi la'akari da shi a hukumance 'Covid'. Da yawa covid sun mutu ko ta yaya [ya riga ya tsufa da rashin lafiya], ko kuma ba mutuwar Covid ba ne. Adadin yawan adadin… sun yi ƙasa da jimlar mutuwar da aka yi rikodin tare da Covid (212,247 tare da Covid da aka ambata akan takardar shaidar mutuwa a ƙarshen 2022, a cewar dashboard ɗin bayanan gwamnatin Burtaniya). Akwai hanyoyi da yawa waɗanda za su iya yin lissafin wannan. Wani bayyane shine gaskiyar cewa kusan mutane dubu 17 ne kawai ke da Covid kuma babu wani abu da aka rubuta akan takardar shaidar mutuwarsu.
Wannan shine 212,247 tare da Covid akan takardar shaidar mutuwa - 17,000 ne kawai ke da Covid kawai. Amma alkalumman hukuma akai-akai suna nuna cewa duk 212,247 sun mutu saboda Covid. Abubuwan da ke faruwa na mace-mace na Covid ba kawai suna ƙara yawan mace-mace da sauran cututtuka ke haifar ba. Kamuwa da cuta, kamar sauran cututtukan hoto, sau da yawa kawai yana hanzarta mutuwar marasa lafiya da masu mutuwa.
Kwatankwacin adadin na Burtaniya a cikin 2020 ya kasance raguwar tsammanin rayuwa na kusan shekara 1 da asarar rayuka kusan kwanaki 6 a kowane kai.
Wannan yana da matukar mahimmanci a fahimta. Don haka, mutanen da suka mutu na/tare da Covid sun rasa, a matsakaita, shekara guda na rayuwa. Amma akasarin mutanen ba su mutu ba. Don haka, kwanaki 6 kacal aka yi asara a matsakaita a cikin dukkan al'ummar Burtaniya.
Wannan ya haifar da matsalar da gwamnatoci da jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a suka sani sosai kafin sanya dokar hana fita - the sananne tasiri na talauci da rashin daidaito akan tsawon rayuwa. Don ƙididdigewa, bayanan Burtaniya da aka karɓa daga Marmott et al (2020) suna nuna rata na shekaru 5 tsakanin tsammanin rayuwa na manyan decile (masu wadata) da ƙananan decile (mafi talauci) a cikin ƙasar. Covid ya haifar, idan aka kwatanta, raguwar kwanaki 6 a cikin tsammanin rayuwa (matsakaici a duk faɗin yawan jama'a). Don haka kusan ba za a iya tunanin cewa shiga tsakani da ke ƙara yawan talauci zai iya zama ƙasa da illa fiye da Covid, ta fuskar lafiyar jama'a.
yin tallan kayan kawa
Takardar ta nuna ainihin ainihin lahani a cikin ƙirar ƙira ta Kwalejin Imperial London da sauransu a cikin hasashen tasirin Covid-19. Waɗannan samfuran sun kori martanin gwamnatoci da yawa, ko da yake a bayyane yake a lokacin, kuma masu ƙirar za su sani, cewa an ƙirƙira samfuran ne don wuce gona da iri. Musamman ma, sun kasa daidaitawa don bambancin yawan jama'a, wanda ke haifar da jinkirin yadawa da kuma rage cututtuka (mafi yawan barnar jama'a, yana barin yawan jama'a). Rashin yin la'akari da bambancin ra'ayi zai wuce ƙimar watsawa ta gaba ta ƙira.
Wataƙila mafi kyawun fasalin fasalin cututtukan da aka yi amfani da su don tabbatar da manufofin Covid shine watsi da mahimman rawar watsawa tsakanin mutum-da-mutum wanda Novozhilov (2008) ya bincika.
Sun kuma yi watsi da gaskiyar cewa kusan rabin cututtukan farko an samo su ne a asibiti (China, Arewacin Italiya) maimakon daga al'umma, wanda ke haifar da karuwar yawan watsawar al'umma a cikin samfuran.
Ƙungiyar ƙirar ƙira ta Imperial, wanda yakamata a tuna, shine wannan rukuni wanda aka buga a cikin Lancet a cikin Maris 2020, yana nuna kusan babu mace-mace a cikin matasa da masu matsakaicin shekaru (hoto na biyu a sama). Sun sani, lokacin da suka yi riya cewa ana tsammanin mace-mace mai yawa, cewa hoton gaskiya ya bambanta sosai.
Hasashen Burtaniya saboda haka ya yi nisa sama da gaskiya - kamar yadda hasashen tasirin kulle-kulle yake. Samfuran kullewa sun ɗauki ƙimar haihuwa (R0) zai kasance akai-akai kafin ko bayan kulle-kulle ba tare da tsangwama ba, yayin da a zahiri koyaushe yana bambanta da lokaci, a hankali yana raguwa daga kololuwar farko yayin da mutane kaɗan ke kamuwa da kamuwa da cuta ta kowane hali, saboda yawancin jama'a ba su da rigakafi. Bugu da ƙari, wannan hakika, ainihin ƙirar ƙirar fashewa ce. Rashin gazawa (misali ba kullewar Sweden da ke da mutuwar kusan 6,000 maimakon 35,000) ta kasa tada kowane gyare-gyare da gyara waɗannan kurakurai.
Yayin da ainihin tasirin kulle-kulle kan talauci da lafiyar tattalin arziki a bayyane yake, rigima ta ci gaba da kasancewa kan tasirin su kan watsawar Covid da mace-mace. Itace da mawallafa suna magance wannan ta hanyar lura cewa kusan duk kulle-kullen da aka fara bayan watsawa sun riga sun fara raguwa (duba adadi). Kusan yana kama da an sanya kulle-kulle a lokacin da zai sa su yi tasiri, maimakon tsammanin za su kawar da wasu cututtuka.
Lokaci don daina yin riya.
Yayin da Covid ya fara sama da shekaru 5 da suka gabata, mutane suna son ci gaba, kuma akwai takardu da yawa da ke jayayya a gefe ɗaya ko ɗayan. Duk da haka, takarda na Wood da co-marubuta sun fito waje. Ba ya tura duk wani kaya na shawarwari ko hasashe kan dalilai na siyasa, amma kawai yana shimfida lambobi da gaskiya. Daga ra'ayi na masana'antar cututtukan fata, tana ba da hujja mai ƙarfi don tantance gaskiya da hammata akida. Lokacin da lissafi da ƙididdiga suka bayyana ba tare da yin tallan tallace-tallace ba, martanin Covid yayi kama da rashin iyawa wanda ba gaba ɗaya ba da gangan.
Wataƙila masu ƙira waɗanda lambobinsu suka ba da izinin Covid hysteria kawai sun yi abin da aka biya su kuma ba sa tsammanin 'yan siyasa da kafofin watsa labarai za su ɗauke su da mahimmanci. Wataƙila likitocin kiwon lafiyar jama'a waɗanda ke haɓaka talauci na dogon lokaci da rashin daidaito suna ƙoƙari ne kawai don ci gaba da ayyukansu akan hanya da kuma ba da rancen kuɗi.
Watakila 'yan siyasa sun yi murabus ne kawai don gaskiyar cewa dole ne su wakilci masu tallafawa kamfanoni a gaban mazabunsu don tsira. Wataƙila ba mu da wayo, masu nagarta, da ɗabi’a kamar yadda muke so mu yi kamar mu. Ko da wane irin batutuwan da ke da tushe, lokaci ya yi da kowa ya daina yin kamar martanin Covid wani abu ne face rikici, ko kuma ba mu san zai kasance ba. Har yanzu akwai wurin gaskiya.
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David Bell, Babban Masanin Kimiyya a Cibiyar Brownstone, likitan lafiyar jama'a ne kuma mai ba da shawara kan ilimin halittu a cikin lafiyar duniya. David tsohon jami'in kiwon lafiya ne kuma masanin kimiyya a Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya (WHO), Shugaban Shirin Malaria da cututtukan zazzabi a Gidauniyar Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) a Geneva, Switzerland, kuma Daraktan Fasahar Kiwon Lafiya ta Duniya a Asusun Kula da Lafiya na Duniya na Intellectual Ventures a Bellevue, WA, Amurka.
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