An raba Binciken Covid-19 na Burtaniya zuwa 'Modules' guda shida. Yana cikin Module 1 akan 'Juriya da Tsari' kuma a cikin Module 2 akan 'Yanke Hukunce-hukuncen Burtaniya da Mulkin Siyasa' cewa binciken zai magance tsarin manufofin da ya haifar da kulle-kulle. Module 1 taron jama'a an gudanar da shi a cikin bazara. Saurari na Module 2 game da Gwamnatin Burtaniya, sabanin gwamnatocin da aka raba, an fara ne a watan Oktoba kuma sun ƙare. Dakatar da sauraron karar yana ba da dama mai amfani don yin la'akari da abin da aka yi ya zuwa yanzu.
Binciken Covid-19 shine sabon nunin da binciken jama'a na Burtaniya ya daɗe tun lokacin da aka rage shi zuwa wani abin dariya mara daɗi ga 'yan ƙasar Burtaniya, kuma dole ne mutum ya kasance mai butulci a cikin matsananciyar tsammanin samun komai mai daraja a cikin karshe suna bugawa. Wani ya yi tunanin, duk da haka, ana iya samun bayanai masu amfani a cikin shaida Tambayoyi sun taru, amma a kan manyan batutuwan da yakamata su magance Tambayar Covid-19 ba za ta cimma wannan mafi girman manufa ba. Don da alama binciken ba zai ba da wata shaida da ke ba 'yan Burtaniya damar yanke shawara ko barkewar SARS-CoV-2 ta zama gaggawa ta isa ta ba da hujjar kullewa ba.
Da alama ko da alama shaidar da mutum ke fata a ƙarshe ya samu game da ɓangaren da shawarar kimiyya ta taka wajen yanke shawarar ɗaukar matakin kullewa za ta fito daga Binciken. Nasihar kimiyya kamata, ba shakka, ba neman yin siyasa ba amma ta dogara ne kawai ga shawarar da ake ba wa masu tsara manufofin da suka auna ta tare da la'akari da tattalin arziki, shari'a, da zamantakewa da ya kamata a yi la'akari da su. Amma wannan shi ne ainihin abin da bai faru ba tare da kulle-kulle, da kuma musanta duk wani hannu a cikin tsara manufofin da masu ba da shawara na kimiyya waɗanda ke riƙe da matsayi mafi mahimmanci ba a yi musu tambayoyi ba, duk da cewa sun juya ga rashin gaskiya na babban sakamako.
Sir Chris Whitty, babban jami'in kula da lafiya na Burtaniya, tabbas, ya kasance daya daga cikin manyan fuskokin jama'a na gabatar da kulle-kullen, amma mafi mahimmanci ga manufofinmu shi ne memba na Kwamitin Ba da Shawarwari na Kimiyya kan Gaggawa (SAGE), babbar kungiyar da ke ba da shawara ga gwamnati game da barkewar SARS. A cikin shaidarsa da aka bayar a ranar 22 ga Yuni 2023, ya gaya wa Binciken cewa shawarar kimiyya ba za ta iya ɗaukar alhakin kulle-kulle ba: 'zai zama abin mamaki sosai' ga 'komitin kimiyya [zuwa] kasuwanci… a cikin irin wannan babban tsoma baki na zamantakewa,' 'ba tare da wani babban ɗan siyasa ya nemi wannan ba.'
An sake maimaita wannan da'awar a cikin shaidar da Farfesa Neil Ferguson ya ba da bincike a kan 17 Oktoba 2023. Farfesa Ferguson na Kwalejin Imperial London, wani adadi mai ban mamaki a cikin bincike na kasa da kasa a kan cututtukan cututtuka na cututtuka, ya kasance memba na SAGE da sauran ƙungiyoyi masu ba da shawara, kuma mafi mahimmancin mutum ɗaya da ke ba da shawarar kimiyya game da fashewa. A cikin dalilansa ya ce:
Na yi imani cewa masana kimiyya suna da muhimmiyar rawar da za su taka wajen ba da shawara ga masu tsara manufofi game da tasirin zaɓin manufofin daban-daban a cikin rikici, amma kada su yi amfani da dandamalin jama'a da aka ba su ta wannan rawar don yin kamfen ko bayar da shawarwari ga takamaiman manufofi… don wani abu da ya haifar da annoba. Inda yanke shawara ya shafi kowa,… masu tsara manufofi ne su yanke waɗannan shawarar, ba na masana kimiyya ba.
Yana da mahimmancin farko a lura cewa wannan iƙirari na Sir Chris da Farfesa Ferguson gaba ɗaya ya saba wa abin da aka daɗe da saninsa na muhimmin al'amari a cikin ɗaukar matakin kulle-kulle, al'amarin da Sir Chris ya taka muhimmiyar rawa, kuma Farfesa Ferguson ya kasance gaba ɗaya.
Shirye-shiryen Burtaniya don magance cututtukan cututtukan cututtukan numfashi sun daɗe da dogaro kan 'rage' cututtuka. A wani bullar cutar mura ko mura a baya, matakan da mutane za su dauka don gujewa kamuwa da cutar da kansu, don gujewa kamuwa da wasu, da jure rashin lafiya ya kamata a tallafa musu ta hanyar matakan da gwamnati ta ɗauka na, alal misali, tallafawa ware kai a gida, ko kuma ba da ƙarin kulawa ga waɗanda suka fi rauni, gabaɗaya tsofaffi marasa ƙarfi.
Babban shiri da aka dade ana la'akari da wannan tasirin wanda aka yi a farkon an yi watsi da shi da sauri mai ban mamaki, tare da manyan yanke shawara watakila ana ɗaukar su a cikin mako guda, lokacin da aka gabatar da SAGE a ranar 16 ga Maris, 2020. Rahoton on Tasirin Maganganun Magunguna ba (NPIs) don Rage Mutuwar Covid-19 da Buƙatar Kula da Lafiya wanda ta ba da izini daga wani taro na musamman na Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team. Da yake nuna yadda ya mamaye filin, wannan Tawagar ta kasance karkashin jagorancin Farfesa Neil Ferguson. Sashigin marasa magani (NPI) baya nufin kullewa; lalle wannan shi ne abin da ba a da yake nufi ba. Yana nufin matakan 'social' da za a iya ɗauka don iyakance kamuwa da cuta da tasirin cututtuka.
Amma SARS-Cov-2 wata sabuwar kwayar cuta ce wacce a cikin Maris 2020, a kan gaskiyar da aka sani zuwa yanzu, cututtukan cututtukan da ba su wuce watanni 6 ba. Kusan babu abin da aka sani game da shi, kuma, ba shakka, ba a samar da alluran rigakafin da za a iya tsayayya da shi ba. A cikin waɗannan yanayi, Ƙungiyar Kwalejin Imperial ta annabta cewa 'wanda ba a kula da shi ba' ko 'cutar da ba a daidaita ba (zai haifar da) mutuwar 510,000 a cikin [Birtaniya]". Hasashen Amurka ya kai miliyan 2.2. Ko da an dauki matakan rage 'mafi kyawun', an yi hasashen cewa 'har yanzu za a sami adadin mutuwar 250,000 a cikin GB.' An yi iƙirarin cewa waɗannan lambobin, ana iya rage su zuwa dubun dubatar ta NPI waɗanda ke bi, ba ragewa ba, amma 'danne' kamuwa da cutar ta Covid-19 ta hanyar hani mai yawa kan hulɗar ɗan adam.
Ba a tattauna dalla-dalla na kulle-kullen ba a cikin Rahoton, amma duk matakan da za a dauka nan ba da jimawa ba, kamar makarantu, jami'o'i, da kuma rufe wuraren aiki, an yi la'akari da su, kuma gabaɗaya, bayan da aka fitar da alkaluma 510,000 da 250,000. Rahoton ya karasa da cewa 'cutar annobar ita ce kawai dabarun da za a iya amfani da su a halin yanzu [wanda] Burtaniya za ta buƙaci [ karɓe] nan da nan.'
Mun jaddada'kawai' a cikin wannan zance don jawo hankali ga hanyar da wannan ƙarshe ya nema tilasta amincewa da kulle-kulle. 'Cutar annoba' dole ne a kulle. Amfani da 'kawai' yana rufe dukkan hanyoyin. Irin wannan harshe yana buƙatar yanke hukunci game da tattalin arziki, shari'a, da sakamakon zamantakewa na kulle-kullen da Sir Chris da Farfesa Ferguson ba su da ikon yin, wanda bai kamata su yi ba, kuma yanzu sun musanta aikatawa. Amma inkarin cewa sun yanke irin wannan hukuncin, karya ce da ba ta dace ba. Cikakkun ƙungiyar Kwalejin Imperial Rahoton Ya ce:
Don haka mun yanke cewa kawar da annoba ita ce kawai dabarar da za ta iya yiwuwa a halin yanzu. Tasirin zamantakewa da tattalin arziƙin matakan da ake buƙata don cimma wannan manufar za su kasance mai zurfi. Kasashe da yawa sun riga sun ɗauki irin waɗannan matakan, amma har waɗancan ƙasashen a matakin farko na barkewar su (kamar Burtaniya) za su buƙaci yin hakan nan da nan.
Yana zuwa cikin a Rahoton wanda ya yi alfahari da kasancewarsa sabon sakamakon Kwalejin Imperial College 'samfurin ƙirar cuta wanda [ya riga ya] sanar da aiwatar da manufofi a Burtaniya da sauran ƙasashe a cikin 'yan makonnin nan,' Rahoton gaba daya ya sabawa ikirarin Sir Chris da Farfesa Ferguson game da shawarar da suka bayar. Farfesa Ferguson da abokan aikinsa a cikin Kwalejin Kwalejin Imperial bayar da shawarwari da nufin ba da shawarar kullewa. Don kiyaye in ba haka ba gaskiya ce karya. Yana da mahimmanci kada a ƙyale waɗannan da'awar ta ƙarya ta tafi ba tare da ƙalubale ba.
Yana da, abin ban mamaki a faɗi, har ma da ƙari game da cewa ƙirar manufofin ƙungiyar Kwalejin Imperial ba daidai ba ce kuma a zahiri ba ta da ma'ana. Tsoron yuwuwar mutuwar mutane 510,000 zai zama alama shine ya haifar da canjin firgita daga raguwa zuwa manufar murkushewa. Amma ta hanyar 'cututtukan da ba a kula da su' ko 'cutar da ba a daidaita ba', da Rahoton wanda ake zargin ya yi hasashen abin da zai faru 'A cikin (wanda ba zai yuwu ba) babu wani matakan sarrafawa ko canje-canje na kwatsam a cikin halayen mutum.'
Amma akwai, ba shakka, ba wani yiyuwar cewa ba za a fuskanci mummunar barkewar cutar cututtukan numfashi tare da martani ba tare da bata lokaci ba da matakan gwamnati don tallafawa waɗannan. Don kwatanta wannan a matsayin 'wanda ba zai yuwu ba' yana da matuƙar ruɗi; lamari ne da ba zai yuwu ba, wanda, duk da haka, Ƙungiyar Kwalejin Imperial ta ko ta yaya ta ƙirƙira. Idan a lokacin zafin zafi na 35 ° kowa a Burtaniya ya fita waje sanye da kayan wanka, kuma idan aka sami faɗuwar zafin jiki ba zato ba tsammani zuwa 5 °, to muna iya yin hasashen matsalolin lafiya a duniya idan mutane suka ci gaba da sanya kayan wanka. Amma mene ne muka koya game da duniyar da ke da ƙarfi daga ƙirar ƙirar kwalejin Imperial yayin da a fili mun riga mun san cewa kowa zai saka tufafi masu dumi maimakon?
Kamar yadda yake a sauran ƙasashen duniya, Ƙungiyar Kwalejin Imperial tana da cikakken bayani sosai lokacin da ta magance barkewar cutar cututtukan numfashi da ƙwayar cuta ta haifar da kwanan nan da aka sani, wanda ba a bayar da rahoton illar cutar ba. Amma maimakon ɗaukar rashin ilimin ya zama tushe don yin taka tsantsan, bincike mai jinkiri da rubutattun tsare-tsare, Ƙungiyar Kwalejin Imperial ta ba da shawarar shiga tsakani wanda Sir Chris Whitty ya bayyana a matsayin 'mafi girma' a matsayin 'dabarun da za a iya amfani da ita kawai.'
Shawarar ta dogara ne akan kididdigar da ta kasance marasa ma'ana a zahiri ko kuma, an gina ta a fili akan cikakkiyar tushen shaida, an tabbatar da cewa ba daidai ba ne. Gabatar da waɗannan ƙididdiga an yi niyya don yin tasiri mai ban mamaki a kan manufofin, kuma Ƙungiyar Kwalejin Imperial ta yi nasara a kan wannan fiye da mafarkinta.
Masu binciken kwalejin Imperial karkashin jagorancin Farfesa Ferguson sun ba da shawarar manufar dakile barkewar cutar ta numfashi tun kafin sabuwar kwayar cutar ta SARS da kuma martanin da kasar Sin ta mayar da martani ga kwaminisanci ya ba ta damar inganta kulle-kullen. Tawagar Martanin Covid-19 Rahoton yunƙuri ne mai matuƙar son kai tilasta amincewa da wannan manufar, wanda ya yi nasarar juya duniya. Sir Chris Whitty da Farfesa Neil Ferguson da'awar akasin haka ba gaskiya bane. Binciken Covid-19 yakamata ya fallasa wannan karyar don duk duniya don gani da tattara shaidun da za su baiwa 'yan kasar Burtaniya damar fahimtar yadda shawarwarin kimiyya mara kyau suka zo suna taka rawa mai girman gaske ba kawai a cikin Burtaniya ba, har ma a duk duniya.
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Kevin Dowd masanin tattalin arziki ne mai sha'awar tsarin kuɗi da macroeconomics, ma'aunin haɗarin kuɗi da gudanarwa, bayyana haɗarin, nazarin manufofin, da fansho da ƙirar mace-mace. Shi Farfesa ne a fannin Kudi da Tattalin Arziki a Makarantar Kasuwancin Jami'ar Durham.
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