Shekaru biyar da suka gabata, a cikin Maris 2020, Yale masanin ilimin zamantakewa da likita Nicholas Christakis MD, PhD, MPH ya dauki shafin Twitter don mamakin martanin China ga SARS-CoV-2, kwayar da ke bayan Covid-19. A cikin cikakken bayani, ya bayyana Sin ta "makamin nukiliya na zamantakewa"(na mutane-share 'bam neutron' - iri-iri?): kulle-kulle da ba a taɓa gani ba, ƙuntatawa motsi akan mutane miliyan 930, da kuma al'adun gama gari da tsarin mulki ya yi amfani da shi. Ya tsara shi a matsayin wani sabon salo na Newtonian: ƙarfin da ake buƙata don dakatar da kwayar cutar ya bayyana ikonsa. Kwatankwacin wannan da na Stanford Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, MA (Tattalin Arziki): daidai da cancanta, amma bayyanannun ido (kalmar Faransanci ita ce "clairvoyant"), wanda tun da farko ya bayyana haɗarin Covi kuma ya buƙaci daidaitawa. model fiye da kwaikwayo mai mulki.
Ga Christakis, raguwar shari'o'in China daga ɗaruruwan yau da kullun zuwa 46 a cikin al'ummar biliyan 1.4 "abin ban mamaki ne." Amma a ƙarƙashin tsoro, tambaya ta tsaya a gare mu a yau: Menene ainihin “kwayar cuta” China ke yaƙi - kuma me ya sa ba mu, a cikin Yamma da ake zato 'yanci, ba mu da ƙarfi kan labarin?
Zaren Christakis, wanda aka adana a cikin daukaka mai girman tweet 35, yana karanta kamar wasiƙar soyayya ga injinan lafiyar jama'a na China. Ya yi bayani dalla-dalla "Gudanar da rufewa" (wanda Daga baya China ta ki amincewa) - ya halatta mutum ɗaya kowane gida ya fita,
duban zafin jiki, da kuma gurɓatattun lif tare da iyakan zama a kashe.
Ya yi dariya da ban dariya game da shan azuzuwan PE na yara kan layi yayin da iyaye ke roƙon shiru. Ya ba da misali da wani bincike da ke nuna adadin haifuwar kwayar cutar (Re) ya ragu daga 3.8 zuwa 0.32, wanda ke nuna cewa an kashe annobar. Nasarar China (sic) ta dogara ne akan "Gwamnatin China ta kasance mai iko… amma kula da COVID-19 ya kasance mai ban mamaki,” Christakis ya yi nishi, cikin bacin rai.
Duk da haka, bai taɓa yin tambaya game da farashi ko mahallin ba (ko ainihin inganci, manufa, da sake fasalin bayanai daga tsarin mulki - aƙalla, a yaƙin "sanyi" tare da mu; ko tare da Trump '45). Ya yi nuni da mutuwar Dokta Li Wenliang - mai ba da labari da gwamnati ta yi shiru - amma ya ci gaba, kamar dai bayanin rubutu ne a babban nasara.
Bari mu koma zuwa 2003, zuwa "Classic Coke" - fashewar SARS ta asali. Kasar Sin ta fuskanci irin wannan kwayar cutar ta numfashi, kuma martaninta ya nuna alamar shekarar 2020. A lokacin, babu wani allurar rigakafin da ta bulla duk da kokarin da take yi. Me yasa? Kwayoyin cuta na numfashi kamar SARS da abin da ya biyo baya, SARS-CoV-2, suna canzawa da sauri kuma suna haifar da haɗari kamar haɓaka dogaro da mutum, inda alluran rigakafin na iya cutar da rashin lafiya a wasu lokuta.
Littafin wasan kwaikwayo na kasar Sin na 2003 ba game da lafiya kawai ba ne - ya shafi sarrafawa. Zanga-zangar ta barke, musamman a garuruwa irinsu Chagugang (Afrilu 29, 2003), lokacin da aka rufe majinyata da suka kamu da cutar a tsakanin yankuna, lamarin da ya haifar da tarzoma saboda rashin kulawa da aka yi. Inuwar dandalin Tiananmen ta yi girma; Rikicin siyasa shine ainihin cutar da Beijing ke tsoro. Susan Shirk in China: Ƙarfafa ƙarfi (2007) ya lura cewa (na asali) SARS sun fallasa raunin mulki, yana haɓaka ɓacin ran jama'a. Ci gaba da sauri zuwa 2020, kuma "mai tsanani, matsi na rigakafi" na Xi Jinping bai yi kama da dabarun kiwon lafiya ba kuma ya fi kama da yajin aikin riga-kafi kan tashin hankalin jama'a.
Tsakanin 2003 da 2020-wani tsaka-tsakin tsaka-tsaki wanda ya cancanci rarrabawa-China ta kori yuwuwar rigakafin SARS. Labs amfani da ferret a matsayin batutuwan rigakafi. Mutum na iya tunanin hakan ba su yi kyau ba.
Cibiyar Nazarin Virology ta Wuhan (WIV), wanda aka kafa a cikin 1956 amma ya sake inganta bayan-SARS tare da haɗin gwiwar Faransa, ta zama cibiyar bincike ta coronavirus, wani bangare da darussan 2003 suka jagoranta.
An zuba biliyoyin kudi, amma a tsakiyar shekarun 2010, yunkurin ya ci tura. Me yasa? Ingantattun abubuwan da suka dogara da Antibody (ADE), inda alluran rigakafi suna haifar da sakamako mafi muni, wanda aka kama kamar bangon bulo. Mutuwar SARS-CoV bai taimaka ba. Dr. Anthony Fauci da kansa daga baya ya yi la'akari da cewa ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi suna tsayayya da allurar rigakafi.
"Ƙoƙarin sarrafa ƙwayoyin cuta na numfashi na mucosal tare da tsarin gudanar da rigakafin da ba a sake maimaitawa ba ya zuwa yanzu bai yi nasara ba ... Muhimmancin sirrin mucosal IgA (sIgA) a cikin takamaiman martani na ƙwayoyin cuta game da cututtukan ƙwayar cuta na numfashi an daɗe ana yaba da ƙwayoyin mura."
Duk da wannan shakku da ilimi da aka samu, ya zuwa shekarar 2020, kasar Sin ta yi hasashen samun nasara ta hanyar sarrafawa, tare da kawar da taka tsan-tsan da irin wannan kimiyyar ke bukata.
Yanzu, yi la'akari da jirgin ruwa na Gimbiya Diamond - dakin gwaje-gwajen da ke iyo wanda ya doki cinyoyinmu a cikin Fabrairu 2020. A ranar 9 ga Maris, lokacin da Christakis ya yi tweeted, bayanai sun fito karara: fasinjoji 3,711 da ma'aikatan jirgin, wani abincin da aka killace, ya haifar da kamuwa da cuta 712. Duk da haka, a tsakanin matasa da masu lafiya, sau da yawa alamun ba su wanzu. Rashin lafiya ya karkata sosai ga tsofaffi, kuma ya zuwa wannan kwanan wata, an sami rahoton mutuwar mutane da yawa (bakwai daga baya ya faru, duk tsofaffin marasa lafiya). Wannan kwanciyar hankali na "gwajin dala tiriliyan 1" (idan an riga an tsara shi) ya yi kururuwa da gaskiya: Covid-19 ba mai kashe dama-dama ba ne. Fauci ya san wannan. Me ya sa bai yi ihu daga saman rufin ba? Me yasa Christakis bai ambaci hakan ba? Madadin haka, labarin ya daidaita akan tsarin draconian na kasar Sin, kamar ba mu da wani zabi illa mu bi.
Kuma bi mu muka yi. A gefen jiha, mun ɗauki matakin kulle-kulle, rufe makarantu, da kuma nisantar da jama'a - kwatankwacin "rufewar rufewar kasar Sin" - duk da rashin lafiyar da muke da ita ga mulkin kama karya. Christakis ya yi kuka cewa Amurka ba ta da kayan aikin China, amma bai damu ba ko ya kamata mu so su. Ba ya tambayar menene ainihin “virus” ta China. Shin SARS-CoV-2 ne, ko kallon tashin hankali a gida? Ko kuma, kamar yadda wasu ke hasashe, a geopolitical jab — anti-Trump agitprop don tabarbare tattalin arzikinsa da hawansa a cikin yaƙe-yaƙe na kasuwanci da jadawalin kuɗin fito? “Wawayenmu masu amfani,” kamar yadda Lenin zai iya kiran su, sun yi la’akari da shi, suna haɓaka labarin kasar Sin ba tare da ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙima ba. Me yasa?
Daidaitaccen SARS 2003 yana ba da ma'ana. Bayan barkewar cutar, kasar Sin ba ta fuskanci yabo a duniya ba saboda babban hannunta - zargi kawai da gunaguni na cikin gida. A cikin 2020, kasar Sin ta ninka sau biyu, tana nuna kwarewa ga duniya yayin da take kawar da rashin amincewa. Mutuwar Li Wenliang ba kawai abin takaici ba ne; gargadi ne. Dubban mutane har yanzu suna makokin sa a kowace rana a Weibo, tawayen da ke adawa da mulkin jihar. Christakis ya lura da wannan amma ba ya haɗa ɗigon: Sarrafa "mai ban al'ajabi" na China ya zo da tsadar ɗan adam mu a Yamma mun yi watsi da shi, sannan muka kwaikwayi.
To, me ya sa makaho tabo? Tunani na rukuni, watakila. Christakis, kamar da yawa a cikin ƙwararrun ƙwararrun 2020, ya hau cikin firgici, lambobin China sun mamaye shi ba tare da tambayar dalilin ko me zai biyo baya ba. Gimbiya lu'u-lu'u ta roƙe mu da mu tsara haɗarin-kare tsofaffi, bar matasa su rayu-amma ba mu yi ba. SARS 2003 ta roke mu da mu yi shakka game da mafarkin allurar rigakafi kuma mu ji tsoron cin zarafi na siyasa, amma ba mu yi ba. Maimakon haka, mun sayi labarin cewa "makamin nukiliya na zamantakewa" kawai zai iya ceton mu, ba tare da tambayar ko maganin ya fi cutar muni ba.
Shekaru biyar bayan haka, "yara masu sanyi" (kamar ku: mai hankali, mai ban sha'awa, masu shakka) na iya gani ta hanyar hazo. Martanin China ba wai kawai game da kwayar cuta ba ne; game da iko ne. Amurka ba ta rasa kayan aiki; Shugabanninta na kula da lafiyar jama'a ba su da jijiyar da za su iya tsara wata hanya ta daban (ko kuma sun kasance masu rikitarwa ko an daidaita su). Ainihin darasi? Tambaya labarin. Shiga cikin bayanan. Kuma lokacin da wani ya ba ku labarin "Classic Coke", duba abubuwan sinadaran.
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Dokta Randall Bock ya sauke karatu daga Jami'ar Yale tare da BS a cikin ilmin sunadarai da kimiyyar lissafi; Jami'ar Rochester, tare da MD. Ya kuma binciki abin ban mamaki 'kwanciyar hankali' da ya biyo bayan cutar ta Zika-Microcephaly ta Brazil ta 2016 da firgita, a ƙarshe ya rubuta "Juyar da Zika."
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