Oh, zo!
Sun sake yin haka, kuma ta hanyar da ta sa zazzage izgili ga duka tattalin arzikin kasuwa na gaskiya da abin da ake kira bin doka. A zahiri, cin nasara na wawaye a Fed, Treasury, da FDIC sun ba da tabbacin dala tiriliyan 9 na ajiyar banki marasa inshora ba tare da izini na doka ba kuma babu jari don tabbatar da waɗannan alkawuran masu kyau.
Dangane da batun ceto kai tsaye na duk masu ajiya a SVB da Bankin Signature, waɗannan cibiyoyi da aka rufe yanzu an yi musu baftisma a matsayin “SIFIs” (cibiyoyin kuɗi masu mahimmanci). Wannan ya sa su cancanci hanyar bail na baya ta ɓoye a cikin Dokar Dodd-Frank ta 2009, wacce ta bai wa hukumomi ikon tabbatar da duk wani adibas na banki sama da ma'auni na $250,000.
Kuna iya cewa "wane ne ya san" ƙwararrun 'yan majalisarmu sun ɗauki garantin jama'a na adibas na manyan kuɗaɗen shinge da kamfanoni na Fortune 500, a cikin kama da sauran "cancanta" wasu, don zama muhimmiyar "gyara" da darussan 2008 ke da garantin?
Sa'an nan kuma, za mu kawai lura da mummunan cin zarafi na harshe da aka yi a cikin aikin wannan karshen mako. Jimlar kadarorin tsarin bankunan Amurka sun kai dala tiriliyan 30.4 a karshen shekarar 2021. Saboda haka, kadarorin dala biliyan 110 na bankin Signature sun kai 0.36 kashi na jimlar kuma kadarorin SVB na dala biliyan 210 sun kasance daidai 0.70 kashi na dukiyar tsarin banki.
Idan waɗannan ƙananan ƙungiyoyin 1% suna da "mahimmanci mai mahimmanci," to, yi mana wannan: Me yasa ba a sanar da waɗannan ɓangarorin banki na rashin hankali ba a matsayin SIFIs a cikin 2011 tare da JP Morgan ($ 3.7 tiriliyan dukiya), Bankin Amurka ($ 4.1 tiriliyan dukiya), da sauran dozin biyu na SIFI manyan yara maza, waɗanda aƙalla sun sami babban rabo na SIFI. ganima?
Tabbas, duk da duk abubuwan Mickey Mouse na tsarin tsarin babban birnin SIFI, ana iya yin mamakin ko Sa hannu da SVB za su kasance a buɗe a yau idan sun buƙaci bin matakan JP Morgan na babban jari da kuɗi, amma abu ɗaya tabbatacce ne: Samun fa'idodin SIFI na ƙarshe wanda ba a taɓa buƙatar su bi yayin da suke har yanzu a cikin rayuwar Washington sabon ƙarfi ne ga masu rai. A wannan yanayin, hamshakan attajirai na Silicon Valley da kuma VC racket wanda kudaden ajiya na cikin haɗari har zuwa misalin karfe 6 na yamma Lahadi.
Duk da haka, kuma duk da haka. Babban kuɗin ceton manyan masu ajiya waɗanda ke sanye da wando na Big Boy a waɗannan cibiyoyi shine kawai ƙarshen tashin hankali na rashin jin daɗi na wannan karshen mako.
A bayyane ya bayyana har ma ga aljanu da suka mutu a kwakwalwa wadanda ke gudanar da nasara a Washington cewa ba da izinin fitar da duk SVB da masu ajiya na Bankin Sa hannu zai haifar da babban gudu a kan adibas a wasu "kananan bankuna" - kuma ga wannan al'amari mafi yawan duk wata cibiyar SIFI. Don haka suka tsawaita tallafin ga daukacin sararin samaniyar dala biliyan 18 na asusun ajiyar bankunan Amurka, sama da dala tiriliyan 9 daga cikinsu ba su da iyakacin inshorar FDIC dala 250,000.
Kuma a yi addu’a a gaya wa wane irin haske ne aka yi na Majalisar da ba a yi ta ba a karshen mako, ko kuma dokar da ba a taɓa jin labarin wani ba a duniya, shin wannan gagarumin alƙawarin na kuɗaɗen masu biyan haraji ya dogara?
Amsar gaskiya ita ce girman kai na hukuma. A fasaha, an yi kira da sabon Shirin Ba da Tallafin Wa'adin Banki (BTFP) a ƙarƙashin hukumomin gaggawa na Fed don magance "yanayin da ba a saba gani ba" ta hanyar tayar da na'urorin bugawa. Amma wannan sabon ƙari ga miya na haruffa na kayan aiki ya fara tashi a lokacin rikicin 2008-2009 a bayyane yake.
Zai baiwa bankuna damar rancen centi 100 akan dala akan littafin ko kwatankwacin kimar biliyoyin UST da bashin hukumar akan ma'auninsu. Amma duk da haka yawancinsa yana ƙarƙashin ruwa sosai saboda gaskiyar cewa a ƙarshe ana barin abin da ake samu akan ƙayyadaddun bayanan samun kudin shiga ya daidaita. Kuma ba kamar al'adar kasuwar kyauta ta al'ada ba, masu amfani da BTFP ba za su ma sami yawan tara lamunin su ba.
Saboda haka, wannan babbar kyauta ce ga bankunan da ke zaune akan wasu $ 620 biliyan a cikin asarar da ba ta dace ba a kan dukkan tsare-tsare (duka Akwai don siyarwa da kuma riƙe har zuwa balaga) a ƙarshen shekarar da ta gabata, a cewar Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Hakanan yana nufin cewa kawai manyan bankunan 4 - kamar yadda aka nuna a ginshiƙi na biyu da ke ƙasa - suna samun tallafin dala biliyan 210.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi cewa, duk wannan yarjejeniyar tana da alaƙa da munafunci, rashin iyawa da kuma ƙarya. Kamar yadda QTR ya ce AM:
Fed yana yaƙi da tsoro tare da ƙarin firgita. A daidai lokacin da shugaban Jerome Powell ya yi niyyar murkushe hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da matsayi kamar dai babu abin da zai iya canza manufofin Fed. ya ruguje kamar riga mai arha yayin da hasarar farko (na mutane da yawa masu zuwa) ke faruwa a cikin mafi ƙasƙanci kuma mafi cancantar kadarorin datti na duniya.. Bankin Silicon Valley shine ainihin mashin na malinvestment, kuma Fed yana aiki kamar JP Morgan yana cikin haɗari.
A cikin wannan mahallin za mu iya farawa da Janet Yellen, wacce koyaushe da alama tana rataye a cikin kwandon lokacin da Keynesians masu sassaucin ra'ayi na zub da jini suka yanke shawarar lokaci ya yi da za a ba da belin manyan yara don amfanin jama'a na yau da kullun. Don haka, a tattaunawar tsakar rana ta nuna jiya ta sha alwashin cewa game da bailouts, "Ba za mu sake yin hakan ba".
Amma duk da haka bayan sa'o'i shida ta yi daidai. Sake.
Don haka game da abin da kawai za ku iya cewa game da wannan kan naman naman shine kawai watakila tana da hankalin jikan mu mai shekaru 3!
Amma abin da ke da ban tsoro da gaske shine magana mai ban tausayi da ta riga ta fito daga Washington. Misali, da'awar ba za ta biya masu biyan haraji ko kwabo ba cikakken shirme ne. FDIC tana da ikon haɓaka ƙimar inshora sama-sama akan duk kuɗin jama'a - dala tiriliyan 18 da aka ambata.
To wannan haraji ne, jama’a!
Hakazalika, masu hannun jarin wadannan bankunan da suka mutu ba a bayar da belinsu ba, kamar yadda ake ikirarin. To, babu wani sabon abu game da hakan - ko kuma tsofaffin masu hannun jari na Lehman, Bear Stearns, da WaMu baya cikin 2008-2009.
Amma hakan bai taba zama matsala ba. Matsalar ita ce haɗuwa da haɗari saboda yana haifar da halin rashin kulawa a nan gaba. Kuma yanzu a cikin hikimarsa Washington ta dauki kasadar jigilar ajiya daga tebur gaba daya ga dukkan tsarin bankin Amurka.
Wannan yana nufin, a zahiri, lasisin Dodd-Frank na Fed ga cibiyoyin SIFI 30 don yin “riba” na jabu yanzu an ƙara zuwa sama da cibiyoyin kuɗi na Amurka 5,000.
Kuma muna nufin lasisin jabun kudaden shiga. Misali, saboda tsarin ajiya na SIFI ya ba da garantin ma'adinan ajiyar kuɗi na JP Morgan yadda ya kamata, matsakaicin kuɗin ajiyar kuɗin ajiya kamar na FY 2022 ya kasance - jira shi - ɗan ƙasa kaɗan. 1.0 kashi!
Wato, tsakanin babban danniya na Fed na yawan riba da zamantakewar SIFI na haɗarin ajiya ga abokan cinikin SIFI, JPM ya ƙaddamar da shi. $ 258 biliyan na yawan kuɗin shiga cikin shekaru takwas da suka gabata. Tabbas, lokacin da farashin samarwa yake kusa da sifili, Ba ya ma ɗaukar wani hazaka kamar Jamie Dimon don samar da tsunami na net riba, net samun kudin shiga, da hauhawar farashin hannun jari ribar ga manyan jami'an.
An faɗi daban, ɓarkewar jirgin ƙasa kamar SVB ba ɓarna bane. Su ne sakamakon da ake sa ran (a ƙarshe) lokacin da masu ajiya ba su da damuwa game da haɗarin yawan amfanin ƙasa da haɗarin bashi wanda hukumomin banki ke wasa a gefen kadari na littafin.
Lallai, babu bege ga horo na kasuwa da kwanciyar hankali a cibiyoyin hada-hadar kudi har sai an sanya masu ajiya gabaɗaya cikin haɗarin hasara. Kuma gwargwadon abin da ya shafi mu, wannan ma ya haɗa da mata masu launin shuɗi da ake tsammanin an kiyaye su ta hanyar iyakacin inshora na dala 250,000 sau ɗaya da kuma tsohuwar.
A takaice, idan kana so ka busa tsarin banki, duk abin da ake kira "tsari mai hankali" a cikin duniya ba zai yi wani bambanci ba, kamar yadda muka koya a karshen mako, idan masu ajiyar kuɗi suna barci a canji ko kuma ba da izini ta hanyar haɗari na halin kirki na har abada a cikin zamantakewar haɗari ga masu ajiya.
Kuma idan ka sa'an nan ka socialized adibas datti datti ta hanyar gudanar da babban bankin ta buga presses ja zafi na tsawon shekaru a karshen, shi ne gayyata ga kowane tashi-da-dare kudi makirci da fanko kwat da wando a fadin ƙasar zuwa girma banki balance sheets kamar Topsy da buga rashin lafiya-samu riba kashe baya na karkatattu adibas.
Don son shakka, kawai san wannan. Wani mamba a kwamitin bankin sa hannun, wanda ya tashi a ciki a ranar Lahadi, shi ne Mr. Prudential Regulation da kansa, tsohon dan majalisa Barney Frank. Wannan gwanin ya rubuta doka don kawo karshen duk rikice-rikice na banki da gazawar amma a fili bai ga wani naman kaza a ƙarƙashin hancinsa ba.
Za mu magance wannan al'amari game da bankunan da ke cikin rikici a cikin Sashe na 2, amma ya isa a nan don yin la'akari da mafi kyawun bayanin ranar - wannan daga Sleepy Joe.
"Na dage sosai na rike wadanda ke da alhakin wannan rikici da cikakken lissafi. "
To, a wannan yanayin, wawaye 12 waɗanda suka haɗa da FOMC sun sami mafi kyawun lauya saboda wannan rikici ya fara da bunƙasa akan lalata su na yau da kullun na ƙimar ribar gaskiya a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata.
Lallai, idan kuna ba da smidgen hankali kun ga SVB yana zuwa ta nisan mil ƙasa. Anan ga ainihin ƙimar riba ta Fed-ingineered akan adibas na banki tun 2007. Ya kasance mai rauni a kusa da gayyata laifi ga masu gudanarwa don fashin banki da masu ajiyar sa - ƙungiya daga cikinsu.
Bayan haka, a lokacin kawai 8 daga cikin watanni 192 da suka gabata shin lissafin baitul malin Amurka na kwanaki 90 ya sami sakamako mai kyau bayan hauhawar farashin kaya, wanda muke aunawa anan a matsayin canjin watanni 12 a cikin amintattun 16% da aka rage ma'anar CPI.
Kuma muna amfani da lissafin na kwanaki 90 saboda gaskiyar cewa farashin kasuwa ya buɗe kamar yadda ake samu a kasuwannin kuɗi na ɗan gajeren lokaci; yana da tasiri sosai kuma an saita shi yadda ya kamata ta hanyar Fed's peg na ƙimar kuɗin Fed; kuma sigar kyauta ce ta mafi kyawun abin da ajiyar banki da masu ajiyar CD za su yi fatan samu a cikin shekaru 15 da suka gabata.
Ba sai an fada ba, kuma gayyata ce ga duk wani ma'aikacin banki da zai iya hako madubi don yi wa abokan cinikinsa fashi makafi bisa doka, yayin da yake buga daruruwan biliyoyin kudin shiga ta wayar tarho. Bi da bi, waɗannan ƙwaƙƙwaran “kudaden shiga” sun sa farashin hannun jarin banki ya yi tashin gwauron zabi da zaɓen hannun jari don fashe cikin ƙima.
Misali, lokacin da Silvergate ya gaza a farkon mako, wannan ƙaramin SVB yana son ganin girman kasuwar sa ya tashi da sauri. 18X a cikin watanni 13 da suka ƙare a watan Nuwamba 2021 - daga dala miliyan 335 zuwa dala biliyan 6. Kuma a sa'an nan poof, shi ya tafi saboda wannan dalili SVB buga bango 'yan kwanaki daga baya: Wato, shi ya kasance wauta arbitraging wani cikakken karkatacce yawan amfanin ƙasa kwana wanda shi ne aikin hannun na juyawa simintin gyare-gyare na 12 nincompoops wanda ya ƙunshi Fed's FOMC.
Don kuka da ƙarfi, dubi layin purple ɗin da ke ƙasa. To fiye da rabin lokaci tun daga jajibirin babban rikicin kudi, ainihin yawan amfanin ƙasa ya kasance -2 kashi ko ƙasa. Kuma ba tare da jure wa karuwar maki 400 ba a cikin ƙimar Fed tun Maris 2022, har yanzu maki 200 ne a ƙarƙashin ruwa.
Ba za mu ma gabatar da tambayoyin furucin ba game da “Me waɗannan mutane suke tunani?”
Aljanu na Keynesian da ke zaune a Ginin Eccles a fili ba sa tunani ko kaɗan.
Daidaita Haɓaka Haɓaka Haɓaka Haɓaka Akan Kudi na Kwanaki 90 na Baitulmalin Amurka, 2007-2023
Abin da ya faru tun ranar Alhamis, ba shakka, daidai yake da kwas ɗin. Masu fafutuka na Silicon Valley ba da jimawa ba suna yin kira da a ba da agajin bayan gida mai sirara. Wadannan manyan kamfanonin hada-hadar da suka hada da Accel, Cowboy Ventures, Greylock, Lux Capital, Sequoia, da kuma wasu 600-wadanda suka samu sama da dala biliyan 40 a tsabar kudi daga SVB a cikin sa'o'i kadan a ranar Alhamis - sun sanya hannu kan wata wasika tun safiyar Litinin din suna nuna "shirye" don sake yin aiki tare da SVB karkashin sabon mallakar.
Abubuwan da suka faru a cikin sa'o'i 48 da suka gabata sun kasance masu takaici da damuwa sosai. A cikin taron da SVB ya kasance a saya kuma a yi babban jari yadda ya kamata,za mu ba da ƙarfi sosai kuma za mu ƙarfafa kamfanonin mu don su dawo da dangantakar su ta banki tare da su. "
To, a nan ga labari ya haskaka waɗannan ƙwararrun VC sun ɓace. A cikin sa'o'i da safe, SVB na kokarin yin daidai da cewa - tara dala biliyan 2.6 na sabon babban jari don toshe babban ramin dala biliyan 1.8 a cikin ma'auninsa wanda ake zargin ya fito daga cikin shuɗi lokacin da aka tilasta masa sayar da Baitulmalin Amurka mai kyau na dala biliyan 21 da kuma tabbatar da amincin hukumar a ƙimar kasuwancin su na gaskiya don samar da kudaden ajiya.
Kash, a kasuwa mai kyauta, amsar ta kasance mai kauri, "Babu lido!"
Babu wanda ke da babban jari na gaske da ya yarda ya sanya sabon kuɗi a cikin rami mai balloon kuma saboda tabbataccen dalili: Bankin yana da $ 120 biliyan na ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun takaddun bashi tun daga ranar 31 ga Disamba, 2022, waɗanda aka riga aka yiwa alama a matsayin manyan masu hasarar lokaci, kuma hakan ya kasance kafin abin da aka tabbatar zai zama tsunami na siyarwa ya mamaye kasuwan UST da Hukumar.
Har ila yau, SVB yana da dala biliyan 71 na "lamuni" zuwa VC "farawa," rabon da aka yi amfani da shi ya kasance mara kyau na tsabar kudi, wani lokacin har ma da kudaden shiga mara kyau. Kuma wannan ya kasance kafin abin da a yanzu zai kasance a cikin ɓarna a cikin duniyar farawar Silicon Valley.
Lallai, rashin hankali na tsarin kasuwancin SVB a fili bai san iyaka ba. Wani yanki mai kyau na dala biliyan 200 na ajiyar kuɗin da aka samu ya ƙunshi tsabar kuɗi na VC mai ƙonewa. Wato, abin da suka kira "ma'auni na ramawa" baya a cikin 1960s wanda a cikin wannan misali ya samo asali daga VC babban birnin tashe a koyaushe mafi girma ƙima da kuma ci gaba daga SVB lamuni.
Dangane da haka, yayin bala'in waɗancan VCs na abokin ciniki da masu farawa sun samar da tarin tsabar kuɗi wanda ya haifar da hauhawar ajiya. SVB ya ƙare kwata na farko na 2020 tare da sama da dala biliyan 60 a cikin jimlar adibas, wanda ya tashi zuwa kawai jin kunyar dala biliyan 200 a ƙarshen kwata na farko na 2022.
Bi da bi, SVB Financial ya sayi dubun-dubatar biliyoyin daloli na kadarorin da suke da aminci, musamman ma baitul-mali na Amurka na dogon lokaci da tsare-tsaren jinginar gida na gwamnati. SVB's Securities portfolio ya tashi daga kusan dala biliyan 27 a farkon kwata na 2020 zuwa kusan dala biliyan 128 a ƙarshen 2021.
Amma duk da haka ma'auni na tsabar kuɗin da abokan cinikin farawa ke ci gaba da narkewa kamar hazo na safiya, duk da asarar da SVB ta yi a kan ƙayyadaddun adadin kuɗin shiga ya tashi daga ƙasa da dala miliyan 500 a cikin 2021 zuwa kusan dala biliyan 17 a ƙarshen 2022.
Tabbas, har kwanan nan babu wanda ya damu game da asarar da ba a gane ta ba a kan asusun banki saboda, da kyau, babu ko ɗaya. Amma da zarar an fara hawan farashin kuma farashin bashi - ga wani abu daga Treasurys, zuwa MBS, zuwa CRE - ya fara raguwa, asarar da ba a gane ba ta fara tashi. Ko kuma mafi kyawun faɗi, ya fara karkata zuwa ga al'ada.
Tabbas, babu inda wannan ya fi bayyane fiye da na Silicon Valley Bank na kansa takardar ma'auni, inda daga kusan babu asara a shekara da ta wuce, adadin ya haura zuwa $ 17 biliyan da Q4.
A lokaci guda kuma, kudaden ajiya na SVB ya koma fita yayin da abokan cinikinsa suka kona kuɗi kuma suka daina samun sabbin kuɗi daga hadayun jama'a ko tara kuɗi. Janyo sabbin adibas kuma ya zama mafi tsada, tare da adadin da masu tanadi ke buƙata ya karu tare da haɓakar Fed. Adadin kuɗi ya faɗi daga kusan dala biliyan 200 a ƙarshen Maris 2022 zuwa dala biliyan 173 zuwa Disamba.
A ranar Laraba kamfanin SVB ya ce ya sayar da wani kaso mai tsoka na kudaden sa, wanda darajarsa ta kai dala biliyan 21 a lokacin sayar da shi, a wani asarar da ya kai kimanin dala biliyan 1.8 bayan haraji. Amma bayan sanarwar waɗannan munanan asarar tambari zuwa kasuwa a yammacin Laraba, abubuwa sun tafi jahannama a cikin kwandon hannu da sauri. Yunkurin siyar da hannun jarin ya sa hannun jarin ya yi kaca-kaca, lamarin da ya sa bankin ya yi fatali da shirinsa na sayar da hannun jarin kusan da zarar an sanar da shi. Kuma manyan kamfanoni daga nan sun fara ba da shawara ga kamfanonin da suke aiki don janye ajiya daga SVB.
A ranar Alhamis, abokan ciniki sun yi ƙoƙarin cire dala biliyan 42 na adibas - kusan kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na jimlar bankin - bisa ga shigar da hukumomin California. Kudi ya kare.
Kuma kamar haka, kuma bayan da yawa "ba za a sake sakewa ba" daga ofishin hukuma na Washington wani babban ceto na masu ajiya marasa inshora ya faru haka. Amma duk da haka bala'i na wannan aikin na guiwa da wuya a iya ganewa.
An sake bugawa daga Stockman's sabis na sirri yanzu akwai Mayarwa
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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