Ya kamata a bayyana a yanzu cewa tattalin arzikin "ƙarfi" na shekaru da yawa da suka gabata ba wani abu ba ne. Sabanin haka, asusun GDP na Keynesian sun cika da gaske kashe kashewa wanda ya taso daga mummunan tarin tsabar kudi na gida yayin balaguron balaguron bala'in na Washington.
Labarin ya bayyana a cikin layin shunayya da ke ƙasa, inda rabon kuɗin kuɗin gida zuwa GDP ya tsaya a 60% baya a cikin 1985 kuma bayan wasu rikice-rikice a cikin shekaru 35 na wucin gadi ya kasance har yanzu. 61% or $ 13.36 tiriliyan a jajibirin bala'in a cikin Q4 2019. Sa'an nan Washington precipitously rufe na al'ada kashe wurare a cikin m ayyuka na tattalin arzikin Amurka, da shi ya tilasta gidaje su ajiye, yayin da lokaci guda allura iyali banki asusun tare da mafi girma ambaliya na free tsabar kudi gwamnati fiye da wanda aka yi zato daga nesa, ko da a cikin manyan kashe kashe kashe a cikin belway Washington. A kololuwa a cikin Q2 2020, rabon tsabar kuɗin gida zuwa GDP ya buge 77.4%.
Kamar yadda ya faru, zagaye da yawa na karan-tsaye da kulle-kulle sun haifar da ma'aunin kuɗin gida ya haura da kusan dala tiriliyan 5.0 daga matakin riga-kafi (Q4 2019) zuwa dala tiriliyan 18.28 ta Q2 2022, ko kashi 71.5% na GDP. A wannan lokacin, adadin da aka nuna idan aka kwatanta da ma'auni na tsabar kuɗi na 60% na yau da kullun zuwa rabon GDP shine $ 2.93 tiriliyan.
A cikin kwata-kwata na baya-bayan nan, duk da haka, ma'aunin kuɗin gida ya ragu sannu a hankali kuma ya ragu zuwa dala tiriliyan 18.03 a cikin Q4 2023, yayin da GDP na ƙima ya ci gaba da faɗaɗa. Sakamakon haka, ma'auni na tsabar kuɗi ya faɗi zuwa 64.5%. Har yanzu, kashi 60 na al'ada na al'ada zai samar da dala tiriliyan 16.77 na ma'auni na tsabar kuɗi (kuɗi, ajiyar banki, da kuɗin kasuwancin kuɗi) a cikin Q4 2023, ma'ana cewa kuɗin da ya wuce har yanzu yana nan. $ 1.26 tiriliyan sama da al'ada a kwanan baya na rahoto kwanan nan.
Wannan shi kansa labarin gaskiya ne. Don sanin, cikakken dala tiriliyan 1.68 ko kashi 56% na ma'aunin tsabar kudi na Q2 2022 sun riga sun shiga cikin rafin ciyarwa. An bayyana daban, a cikin rubu'i shida tsakanin Q2 2022 da Q4 2023, yawan adadin ma'auni na tsabar kudi ya kai dala biliyan 280 a kowace kwata, yayin da GDP na ƙima ya karu da dala tiriliyan 2.4 ko dala biliyan 400 a kowace kwata. Saboda haka, yawan kuɗaɗen da aka samu ya kai kusan 70% na matsakaicin ribar GDP a lokacin kulle-kulle da murmurewa-kore.
Sa'an nan kuma, shi ke nan game da abin da ta rubuta. A halin da ake ciki na yawan kuɗaɗen kuɗi na gida na yanzu, za a kai kashi 60 cikin ɗari na tarihi zuwa ƙimar GDP a ƙarshen 2024. A wannan lokacin, tattalin arzikin Amurka zai ragu da sama da dala tiriliyan 100 na haɗe-haɗe bashi na gwamnati da na masu zaman kansu. Kuma ba za a siffanta shi da ƙarfi ko ma juriya ba.
Ma'aunin Kuɗi na Gida da Ratio zuwa GDP, 1985 zuwa 2023
Haka kuma ba rabinsa ba ne. A cewar Ma'aikatar Ciniki, GDP na zahiri da GDP na gaske ya karu da kashi 6.00% a kowace shekara da kashi 2.76% a kowace shekara, bi da bi, tsakanin stimmy kololuwar Q2 2022 da Q1 na 2024. Duk da haka, ko da na karshen suna fadin ainihin GDP riba ya kasance saboda da dubious zato cewa a lokacin abin da aka kasa sifili a cikin shekaru 40 kawai ya tashi a cikin GDP. 3.14% kowace shekara.
Lallai, hatta ma'anar ma'anar CPI da aka gyara akan wannan lokacin an buga a 4.44% a kowace shekara. Don haka za mu ci amanar cewa ainihin abin da aka samu ya kai kashi 1.5% a kowace shekara a mafi kyawu a cikin rubu'i shida na ƙarshe. Kuma cewa sama da kashi biyu bisa uku na abin da aka kididdige su ta hanyar fitar da tsabar tsabar kuɗi na gida. A takaice dai, watakila tattalin arzikin Amurka ya kasance yana karuwa da kashi 0.5% a shekara.
Rahoton Ayyuka na Juma'a na Afrilu yana ba da ƙarin ƙarfafawa. A zahiri, ribar 175,000 a cikin lambar ayyukan kanun labarai tana wakiltar aikin tattalin arziƙin da ke rayuwa akan lokacin aro ta kowane nau'in kuɗaɗen da aka bayyana a sama, kuma an sanya shi ya fi koshin lafiya ta hanyar jigon bogi na binciken kafa BLS.
Kamar yadda ya faru, ta hanyar lissafin BLS, jimlar sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a cikin kamfanoni masu zaman kansu a watan Afrilu sun ƙi ta 0.2% daga matakin Maris. Kuma wannan kawai yana haɓaka a wani yanayin rauni mai tsayi mai tsayi wanda ya ƙaryata ƙaƙƙarfan kasuwar aiki brouhaha da ke fitowa daga Wall Street permabulls.
Lokacin da kuka kalli ma'auni mai dacewa don amfani da aiki - sa'o'i sun yi aiki maimakon ƙididdige kanun labarai waɗanda suka haɗu da sa'o'i 15 a kowane mako burger-flippers tare da sa'o'i 50 a kowane mako madaidaicin rijiyar mai - wannan haɓakawar yana bayyana a rana. Matsakaicin yanayin dogon lokaci ya faɗi da kusan kashi biyu cikin uku:
Girman Girman Jimlar Sa'o'in Ma'aikata Masu zaman kansu:
- Janairu 1964 zuwa Satumba 2000: + 2.00% kowace shekara.
- Satumba 2000 zuwa Afrilu 2024: +0.74% kowace shekara.
Ba lallai ne a faɗi ba, dole ne ku kwance lambar BLS cikin ruɗani mai ruɗi da kuma neman aikin kanun labarai don fahimtar wannan gaskiyar. Masoyan Fed za su so ku yi imani, alal misali, cewa tsakanin Yuni 2023 da rahoton Afrilu 2024 na yau game da 2.26 miliyan an ƙirƙiri sabbin ayyukan yi a cikin tattalin arzikin Amurka, wanda ya kai ga samun fa'idar lafiya 226,000 kowace wata.
Amma wannan yana daga abin da ake kira "binciken kafa." Na karshen ya dogara ne akan kuri'un "wasiku" daga kusan kasuwancin Amurka 119,000 ko kuma kusan kashi 2.0% na jimlar ɓangarorin kasuwanci miliyan 6.1 na ƙasar waɗanda ke da aƙalla ma'aikaci ɗaya da ake biya. A halin yanzu, duk da haka, ƙimar amsawa ga binciken BLS shine kawai 43% idan aka kwatanta da 63% a kwanan nan kamar 2014. Bugu da ƙari, babu wani dalili na musamman don yin imani da cewa bacewar 68,000 amsa bazuwar ko daidai da haɗuwa da kamfanoni a zahiri aikawa a cikin sakamakon su a cikin watanni na baya, kwata, da shekaru.
Wannan baya rage jinkirin koren gashin ido a BLS, ba shakka. Lambobin ga duk waɗanda suka ɓace da sauran cikkaken tattalin arzikin kasuwanci ana yin su, ƙididdiga, ƙididdigewa, ƙididdige su, daidaita haihuwa/mutuwa, sarrafa yanayi, kuma in ba haka ba an fitar da su daga kwamfutocin da ake nema na BLS. Sannan kuma a ranar Jumma'a sau ɗaya a wata, ƙimar biliyoyin daloli na manyan kasuwannin hannayen jari suna motsawa sama ko ƙasa nan take kuma galibi a zahiri akan buga su.
Kada ku manta cewa duk abin da ke ƙasa da lambar kanun labaran ayyukan rahoton BLS ya yi gargaɗi game da cire haɗin gwiwa, rashin daidaituwa, wasanin gwada ilimi, sabani, da rashin dogaro. Alal misali, abokin tarayya na yau “bincike” na gida, wanda ya dogara ne akan tambayoyin waya 50,000, sabanin rahotannin saƙo, ya nuna cewa an samu guraben aiki 25,000 kawai.
Duk da yake wannan ba ya yi kusan ƙarfi kamar lambar binciken kafa 175,000, a zahiri ba ma rabinsa ba ne. Idan muka koma ga abin da ya zama kololuwar tattalin arziki na wucin gadi ga wannan zagayowar, binciken iyali ya ba da rahoton ma'aikata miliyan 161.004 a cikin watan Yuni 2023, tare da adadi da aka buga a miliyan 161.491 a cikin Afrilu 2024. Ribar da aka nuna shine. 487,000 "ma'aikata" idan aka kwatanta da 2,260,000 ƙarin "ayyukan" da aka ruwaito a cikin binciken kafa na watanni goma da ke ƙare a watan Afrilu.
Don haka ko dai kowane sabon "ma'aikaci" a watan Afrilu yana riƙe da ƙasa 4.64 "ayyuka" ko akwai skunk a kan katako a nan wani wuri. Kuma a gaskiya ma, cikakken lokaci tare da ma'aikaci na lokaci-lokaci ya zama babban nau'i na musamman idan ya zo ga wari akan lambobi.
Dangane da BLS, ga matakan da canji tsakanin Yuni 2023 da Afrilu 2024 don waɗannan rukunin binciken gida biyu:
- Ma'aikata na cikakken lokaci: miliyan 134.787 da miliyan 133,889 don asarar 898,000 ma'aikata na cikakken lokaci.
- Ma'aikatan lokaci-lokaci: miliyan 26.248 da miliyan 27.718 don wani ya canza zuwa -1.470%. ma'aikata na lokaci-lokaci.
Za mu ce ku je siffa ko, mafi kyau tukuna, jefa dart a rahoton BLS kuma ku tafi tare da lambar da ta sauka a kai — tunda kusan dukkaninsu ana tausa da su ba tare da katsewa ba.
A bayyane yake, batunmu anan ba shine mu ba BLS C- don ƙoƙarin da yake yi na ƙidayar aiki ba. Akasin haka, shine don baiwa Tarayyar Tarayya F don ko da tsammanin cewa zai iya haifar da tattalin arzikin Amurka dala tiriliyan 28 tsakanin cikakken aiki da hauhawar farashi a wata-wata har ma da yau da kullun ta hanyar manyan ayyukan kasuwa na bude kan Wall Street.
Duk ƙoƙarin da ba daidai ba a tsarin tsarin kuɗi ya kasance babban gazawa a wani ɓangare saboda tattalin arzikin Amurka - wanda ke da alaƙa da haɗin gwiwar tattalin arzikin duniya na dala tiriliyan 105 - yana da wahala sosai, mai saurin tafiya, bayyanuwa, kuma a ƙarshe abin ban mamaki ne ga mutane 12 kawai waɗanda ke zaune a Kwamitin Buɗe Kasuwa na Fed, kuma waɗanda a kowane lokaci na yau da kullun na ayyukan kuɗi na yau da kullun. kayan aiki.
A zamanin baya, Hayek ya kira wannan a matsayin matsalar lissafin gurguzanci, kuma bai tafi ba kawai saboda an maye gurbin tsarin gurguzu irin na Gosplan ta hanyar ba da umarni na kudi na babban bankin kasa.
Haka kuma, ko da bayanai da lissafi matsalar an ko ta yaya za a shawo kan ta hanyar wiring da kwakwalwan kowane mabukaci, ma'aikata, kasuwanci manajan, 'yan kasuwa, zuba jari, ceto, da speculator zuwa 10,000-acre gona na Cray Computers, da insuperable matsaloli na Fed ta kai sanya manufa manufa na cikakken tattalin arziki iko ba za a shawo kan mugun. Hakan ya faru ne saboda raguwar ɗimbin kuɗi da rage yawan kuɗin ruwa tuntuni sun rasa ƙarfinsu a cikin tattalin arzikin da ke cike da dala tiriliyan 98 na bashin jama'a da na masu zaman kansu.
A kowane hali, tabbacin yana cikin pudding daga rahoton ayyukan Afrilu. Kamar yadda cikakken bayani a sama, tsakanin 1964 da dotcom kololuwa a cikin 2000 - kuma a wani lokaci kafin buga kudi da gaske ya tashi daga zurfin ƙarshen - ma'aunin ƙimar sabis na BLS na jimlar sa'o'i da aka yi aiki a cikin tattalin arzikin masu zaman kansu ya karu da kusan 2.0% a kowace shekara. Ƙara wani 2.0% a kowace shekara don haɓaka yawan aiki saboda ingantaccen saka hannun jari, ci gaban fasaha, da kuma samar da ma'aikata tare da ƙarin kayan aiki da hanyoyin samarwa, kuma kuna da tattalin arzikin haɓaka 4%.
Babu shakka, babu kuma. Babban hauhawar farashin kadarorin kuɗi na Fed ya haifar da karkatar da babban jari zuwa hasashe akan titin Wall maimakon saka hannun jari mai fa'ida akan Main Street. Don haka haɓakar kayan aiki ya ragu sosai zuwa kawai 1.25% a kowace shekara tun daga 2010.
A sa'i daya kuma, tattalin arzikin Amurka mai cike da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya yi hasarar dimbin masana'antunsa zuwa wurare masu rahusa a kasashen waje. Sakamakon haka, tun lokacin da aka sami kololuwar pre-dotcom a cikin 2000, yawan haɓakar sa'o'in ma'aikata masu zaman kansu da aka yi aiki ya ragu zuwa 0.74% da aka ambata a kowace shekara. Don haka, abubuwan haɓakar tattalin arziƙin da aka haɗa tare yanzu sun kai kashi 2.0% ko rabin adadin tarihi.
A ƙarshen rana, babu shakka game da shi. Dukansu haɓakar haɓaka aiki da haɓakar ƙwadago sun kasance sun lalace kuma sun ragu sosai ta irin tsarin tsare-tsare na kuɗi na Keynesian wanda Tarayyar Tarayya ke bi a halin yanzu. Kuma yunƙurin da ake yi a halin yanzu zuwa wani sabon zagaye na ɓarna kudi-bugu shine ƙarin tabbaci na gaskiyar.
Duk da haka, gazawar tsare-tsare na tsakiya bai rage illar da manufofin Fed ke yi wa Babban Titin Amurka ba. Misali, a cikin watannin baya-bayan nan (Janairu) farashin gida na Amurka ya karu da kashi 6.0 bisa XNUMX na Y/Y kuma saboda haka sun kasance karin tunatarwa kan dalilin da ya sa manufofin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Fed ke da ban tsoro. A zahiri, sun kafa yaƙi tsakanin farashin kadari da albashi, kuma na farko ya ci nasara.
Don kauce wa shakku, a nan ne dogon ra'ayi game da al'amarin, tare da farashin gida da aka ƙididdige su a cikin purple da matsakaicin albashi a baki.
Fihirisar Matsakaici Farashin Gida Da Matsakaicin Albashin Sa'a, 1970 zuwa 2023
Mun indexed matsakaicin tallace-tallace farashin gidaje a Amurka da matsakaicin hourly albashi zuwa ga dabi'u kamar yadda na Q1 1970. Wannan shi ne Hauwa'u na Nixon ta nutse cikin tsarki fiat kudi a Camp David a watan Agusta 1971 da duk sakamakon monetary wuce haddi da metastases tun sa'an nan.
Mun indexed matsakaicin tallace-tallace farashin gidaje a Amurka da matsakaicin hourly albashi zuwa ga dabi'u kamar yadda na Q1 1970. Wannan shi ne Hauwa'u na Nixon ta nutse cikin tsarki fiat kudi a Camp David a watan Agusta 1971 da duk sakamakon monetary wuce haddi da metastases tun sa'an nan.
Bayanan sun bar wurin shakka. Farashin gida a yau ya tsaya a 18.2X ƙimar su Q1 1970 yayin da matsakaicin albashin sa'a yana kan kawai 8.7X darajar su shekaru 54 da suka gabata.
An bayyana shi cikin ƙarin aiki mai amfani, matsakaicin farashin tallace-tallace na gida na $23,900 a cikin Q1 1970 ya wakilta. 7,113 hours na aiki a matsakaicin albashin sa'a. Idan aka ɗauki daidaitaccen shekara ta aiki na sa'o'i 2,000, ma'aikatan albashi sun yi wahala 3.6 shekaru don biyan kuɗin gida mai matsakaicin farashi.
Tare da wucewar lokaci, ba shakka, manufofin haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Fed sun yi nisa ga farashin kadari fiye da albashi. Don haka, a lokacin zuwan Greenspan a Fed bayan Q2 1987, yana buƙatar sa'o'i 11,350 don siyan gida mai tsaka-tsaki, wanda ya tashi zuwa sa'o'i 12,138 ta Q1 2012 lokacin da Fed ya sanya 2.00% na hauhawar farashin kaya a hukumance. Kuma bayan wasu shekaru goma na manufofin kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗe, yanzu ya tsaya a ƙasa 15,000 hours.
A cikin kalma ɗaya, matsakaicin farashin gida na yau na $435,400 yana buƙata 7.5 daidaitaccen aiki shekaru a matsakaicin albashin sa'a don siye, ma'ana yanzu ma'aikata suna aiki sosai fiye da sau biyu idan dai sun yi a 1970 don samun damar mafarkin mallakar gida.
Don haka tambayar ta sake faruwa. Me yasa a cikin duniya manyan ma'aikatan babban bankin mu za su yi fatan talauta ma'aikatan Amurka ta hanyar ninka lokutan aiki da ake buƙata don siyan gida mai tsadar gaske? Kuma, ee, harin da aka yi a kan masu matsakaicin matsayi lamari ne na kuɗi. Ba wai maginan gida da suka mallaki farashin sabbin gidaje ba ne ya jawo hakan ba kuma saboda ƙarancin filaye, katako, fenti, ko aikin gine-gine a wannan lokacin na rabin ƙarni.
Sabanin haka, lokacin da Fed ya haɓaka tsarin kuɗi, sakamakon rashin lafiya yana aiki ta hanyar kasuwannin kuɗi da tattalin arziƙin gaske ba daidai ba. Farashi, gami da na aiki da kadarori, ba sa motsawa cikin kulle-kulle, saboda gasar ƙetare tana riƙe wasu farashi da albashi yayin faɗuwar ƙimar riba ta gaske da haɓaka ƙimar ƙima a zahiri yana haifar da hauhawar farashin kadari daidai gwargwado.
Don haka, ƙididdige ƙimar duk farashin kadari - bayanin kula na Baitulmalin Amurka (UST) na shekaru 10 - ya faɗi sosai a zahiri cikin shekaru arba'in na ƙarshe na wancan lokacin. Farashin gaske a 5%+ a cikin shekarun 1980s ya faɗi zuwa kewayon 2-5% a lokacin Greenspan, sa'an nan kuma ya faɗi gaba, zuwa sifili ko ƙasa, saboda ma fi munin manufofin buga kuɗi na magajinsa.
Daidaita Haɓaka Haɓaka Haɓaka Haɓaka a cikin Shekaru 10 UST, 1981 zuwa 2023
Manufar da aka bayyana na yanayin sauƙi na kuɗi da aka kwatanta a sama, ba shakka, shine don haɓaka ƙarin saka hannun jari a cikin gidaje, a tsakanin sauran sassa. Amma hakan bai faru ba. Matsakaicin jarin gidaje zuwa GDP ya ragu daga yankin tarihi na 5-6% kafin 1965 zuwa matsakaita na 4.5% a tsawon lokacin kumfa gidaje na Greenspan a cikin 2005.
Duk hanyar da kuka yanke shi, duk da haka, haɓakar kuɗin kuɗi bayan 1987 bai haifar da ƙarin saka hannun jarin gidaje akan kowane tushe mai dorewa ba. Maimakon haka, ya haifar da hasashe mai ba da bashi a cikin kayan gidaje na yanzu, yana aika farashin tashi da sauri kuma ya fi girma fiye da karuwar kudin shiga gida da albashi.
Zuba Jari na Gidaje % na GDP, 1950 zuwa 2023
Za'a iya ganin ma'aunin ma'auni na tasiri mai sauƙi na kuɗi a kan zuba jari a cikin ma'auni na kammala gidaje dangane da yawan jama'ar Amurka. Tun daga farkon 1970s, wannan rabon yana ci gaba da tafiya ƙasa kuma yanzu ya tsaya a kashi 45 cikin ɗari na ƙimarsa shekaru 50 da suka gabata.
Fihirisar Rukunin Gidaje masu zaman kansu ga Jama'ar Amurka, 1972 zuwa 2023
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, idan ƙimar jinginar gida mai arha shine elixir da ake iƙirarin zama, layin da ke cikin ginshiƙi zai yi girma zuwa sama. Kamar yadda ya faru, duk da haka, ƙiyayya ce ta ainihin ainihin lamarin don ƙarancin kuɗin ruwa wanda Wall Street da Washington suka haɓaka ba tare da ɓata lokaci ba.
A ƙarshen rana, tattalin arzikin Amurka ba shi da “ƙarfi,” kamar yadda shugabannin tattaunawa suka sake yin ta’azzara a ranar Juma’ar da ta gabata. Hakazalika, rahoton BLS ba shi da daraja tawada dijital da aka buga a kai.
Don haka, manufar babban bankin kasar da ta ginu kan wani ofishin siyasa na hada-hadar kudi da ke karkatar da dimbin tattalin arzikin kasar da ya kai dalar Amurka tiriliyan 28 zuwa ga cikakken aikin da ba a iya tantancewa da kuma hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kashi 2.00% ta hanya daya kacal. Don sanin, ɓataccen jirgin ƙasa a cikin cikakken jirgin.
An sake bugawa daga David Stockman's sabis na sirri
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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