Dogmatically manne da taken, masu mulki ba su yi ƙoƙarin ƙididdige adadin sakamakon kisa na rigakafin Covid ba. An bar mu don bincika ƙididdiga ta amfani da hanyoyin kai tsaye.
Halin da ke kewaye da yaƙin neman zaɓe na kashi na uku ("ƙarfafa") a Isra'ila yana ba da haske na musamman game da yuwuwar adadin mace-mace na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Na dogon lokaci, mace-macen alurar riga kafi zai yi wahala a ƙididdige su.
A ƙarshen Yuli 2021, ma'aikatar lafiya ta amince da ƙarfafawa ga waɗanda suka kai aƙalla shekaru 60, kuma an yi wa mazauna kusan miliyan 2.4 allurar a watan Agusta - yayin haɓakar guguwar bazara ta Covid.
Ofishin Kididdiga na Tsakiyar Isra'ila ya kirga mutuwar mutane 4,504, daga dukkan dalilai, a cikin watan Agusta 2021. Nawa aka sa ran? Nawa ne suka fada cikin nau'in yawan mace-mace?
Mahimmanci, adadin “al’ada” na mace-mace a cikin watan Agusta ya kasance daidai da kwanciyar hankali kafin barkewar cutar, wanda ya kai kusan 3,500 tsakanin 2015 da 2019 (janye rectangle). Amfani da wannan tushen, yawan mace-mace na kusan 500 a cikin Agusta 2020 ya dace da mutuwar Covid da firgici. Adadin adadin wadanda suka mutu a watan Agustan 2021 ya ninka sau biyu: kusan 1,000.
Mutuwar Covid nawa aka ba da rahoton a cikin Agusta 2021?
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Wanda ke nuna kusan mutuwar mutane 400 da ba a ji duriyarsu ba. Shin waɗannan mutuwar masu haɓakawa suna da alaƙa?
Ya zuwa yanzu bayanan sun yi kama da kai tsaye, amma akwai wasu hanyoyin rashin tabbas game da rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin mutuwar Covid da mutuwar da ba a tantance ba a watan Agusta 2021:
- Masu karɓar haɓaka ba su da yuwuwar a gano su azaman lokuta (saboda haka ana kiran su da mutuwar Covid, idan sun mutu) saboda mutane na iya danganta alamun Covid ga mai haɓaka kuma ba a gwada su ba. Hakazalika, akwai ɗabi'a gabaɗaya na rashin gwada masu karɓa da ƙarfi kamar sauran. Don haka, adadin mutuwar Covid na gaskiya tsakanin masu karɓar haɓaka ya kamata ya fi girma, kuma adadin waɗanda ba a san su ba - ƙarami.
- A gefe guda, akwai wani hali a cikin Isra'ila (da sauran wurare) don yin kidayar mutuwar Covid - wani lokacin sosai. A lokacin hunturu da ya gabata (Disamba 2020 zuwa Maris 2021), kiyasin adadin wadanda suka mutu ya wuce gona da iri rabin adadin mutuwar Covid da aka ruwaito, wanda ke nufin rabin mutuwar Covid da aka ruwaito sun kasance "mutuwa tare da Covid," ba "daga Covid." Idan wannan matakin na ɓarna ya ci gaba a cikin watan Agusta, adadin mutuwar Covid na gaskiya ya kamata ya zama ƙarami, kuma adadin yawan mutuwar da ba a tantance ba - ya fi girma.
- Farkon lokacin allurar rigakafi babban lokaci ne mai haɗari - don kwangilar Covid da kuma mutuwa daga Covid. Tun lokacin da ma'aikatar lafiya ta yanke shawarar gudanar da mai haɓakawa a lokaci ɗaya zuwa tashin hankali, wasu mutuwar Covid na iya haifar da haɓakawa / im.
- Wasu mutuwar da ba a tantance su ba na iya kasancewa sakamakon gujewa ko jinkirta kulawar gaggawa na gaggawa don yanayin da ba na Covid, sakamakon firgici.
Babu wata hanyar da za a iya ƙididdige tasirin waɗannan hanyoyin, amma tsarin ra'ayin mazan jiya (fi son mai haɓakawa) na iya sanya mafi girman iyakar adadin masu haɓakawa a 400 kuma ya rage adadin zuwa 300 da 200. An nuna kewayon kima mai ƙima a cikin Isra'ila a cikin Agusta 2021 a cikin tebur: 8 zuwa 17es na mutuwa, kowace 100,000.
a cikin wata labarin kwanan nan, Gibson yayi nazarin ƙungiyar tsakanin haɓakar haɓakawa a New Zealand da haɓakar mace-mace. Ya kiyasta mutuwar sama da 16 a cikin 100,000 masu haɓakawa (95% CI: 5 zuwa 27). Sakamako daga Isra'ila sun faɗi cikin wannan kewayon.
Alurar riga kafi tare da adadin mace-mace akan irin wannan sikelin ba "lafiya" ba - aƙalla bisa ga ƙa'idodin kiwon lafiyar jama'a waɗanda aka yi amfani da su ga rigakafin mura da sauran alluran rigakafin. Kuma ba shi da "lafiya" bisa ga kiyasin munanan abubuwan da ba su dace ba daga gwajin bazuwar.
Aƙalla, ƙididdigan adadin mace-macen ya kamata ya zama wani ɓangare na yarda da aka sanar. Abin takaici, sanarwar ba ta kasance cikin ajanda na jami'ai ba tun lokacin da allurar rigakafin Covid suka shiga kasuwa ta hanyar ba da izinin amfani da gaggawa.
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Dokta Eyal Shahar farfesa ne a fannin kiwon lafiyar jama'a a fannin cututtukan cututtuka da kididdiga. Binciken nasa yana mayar da hankali ne akan ilimin cututtuka da kuma hanyoyin. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, Dr. Shahar ya ba da gudummawa sosai ga hanyoyin bincike, musamman a fannin zane-zane da kuma son zuciya.
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