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Gabatarwa
Mutane da yawa sun yi tambaya game da sahihancin kididdigar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a hukumance, tare da rubuce-rubuce da dama na takardun ilimi kan batun da kuma shakku daga majiyoyin da suka fito daga New York Times1 ga tsohon shugaban kasa Donald Trump.2
Wannan batu ba wai kawai saboda hamshakin siyasa na tashin farashin ba ne, har ma saboda ana amfani da lambobin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a hukumance wajen kididdige ci gaban tattalin arziki na hakika ta hanyar daidaita dalar da ba ta dace ba zuwa dalar da ta daidaita.
A cikin wannan binciken muna da nufin ƙididdige wasu daga cikin abubuwan da suka fi muni a cikin kididdigar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki don kusantar mu da fahimtar haƙiƙanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki tun daga 2019, don haka haɓakar tattalin arziƙi na gaskiya tun 2019.
Ayyuka
Wahalhalun da ake fuskanta wajen auna girman tattalin arzikin al’umma yana da ninki biyu.3 Na farko, babu isassun bayanai don auna lamba kai tsaye da girman duk ma'amaloli a cikin tattalin arziki, ko kuma saka idanu akan duk ayyukan tattalin arziki. Na biyu, kayan aikin aunawa da aka yi amfani da su (a cikin wannan yanayin, bayanin kula na Tarayyar Tarayya) yana canza ƙima akan lokaci. Don haka, sauye-sauyen ƙima na ayyukan tattalin arziki na iya zama saboda sauye-sauye na gaske a ayyukan tattalin arziki, kuskuren auna ayyukan tattalin arziki, ko canje-canjen darajar kuɗi.
Ma'auni na gwamnati na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki suna fama da matsaloli daban-daban waɗanda ke yin la'akari da hauhawar farashin kan lokaci. Wadannan gazawar sun fi fitowa fili a cikin shekaru hudu da suka gabata yayin da aka samu saurin faduwar darajar kudin. Wannan binciken baya ƙoƙarin magance matsaloli game da auna ƙimar aikin tattalin arziƙi amma a maimakon haka yana ba da wani gyare-gyare don canza haɓakar ƙima zuwa haɓaka ta gaske ta hanyar nuna sauye-sauyen tsadar rayuwa a kan lokaci.
Ɗaya daga cikin mafi yawan ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki shine ma'aunin farashin mabukaci (CPI). Yana auna canjin farashi na ƙayyadadden kwandon kaya da ayyuka akan lokaci. Yayin da fihirisar ta ƙunshi wakili don farashin mallakar gida, ba a zahiri ke lissafin wannan kai tsaye ba. Madadin haka, CPI tana ƙididdige wannan ƙimar daga haya, ba tare da lura da farashin gida ko ƙimar riba ba.4 Wanda ake kira "daidain hayan gidaje na masu shi," wannan rukunin yana da mahimmancin dangi sama da kashi 26, ma'ana yana da sama da kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na CPI.
Idan farashin hayar da mallaka ya canza daidai da lokaci, to wannan hanyar za ta kasance daidai. Abin takaici, farashin mallakar gida ya karu da sauri fiye da haya a cikin shekaru hudu da suka gabata kuma CPI ta yi watsi da hauhawar farashin gidaje. Kudin sabis na gidaje a cikin Asusun Tattalin Arziƙi na Ƙasa da Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki ya buga yana fama da irin wannan matsalolin hanyoyin.
Hakanan akwai batutuwa tare da ƙididdige tasirin wasu ƙa'idodin gwamnati, waɗanda zasu iya shafar gyare-gyaren hedonic waɗanda yawanci daidaita farashin ƙasa lokacin da masu kididdigar gwamnati suka yi imanin samfur ya inganta.5
Wahalar kimanta irin waɗannan gyare-gyare na iya haifar da raguwar farashi na wucin gadi saboda fa'idodin fa'idodin ga mabukaci waɗanda a zahiri ba su wanzu. Misali, idan aka yi la’akari da cewa ka’ida ta kara ingancin samfur, to ko da wani gagarumin karin farashin zai iya yin rajista saboda babu wani canjin farashi ko ma raguwar farashi a kididdigar kididdigar kasa da ake amfani da ita wajen kididdige yawan amfanin gida (GDP).6
Akwai ƙarin ƙalubale don auna hauhawar farashi da canje-canjen farashi lokacin da ba a caje masu siye kai tsaye don ayyuka, kamar inshorar lafiya.7 Ana amfani da ƙididdiga biyu don biyan ainihin farashi na samar da sabis na inshora (raguwa mai haɗari) da kuma sabis na likita da kayayyaki. CPI ta yi watsi da duka biyun, kuma a maimakon haka ta ƙididdige farashin inshorar lafiya daga ribar masu inshorar lafiya.
Idan waɗannan ribar ta ragu saboda ƙarin farashin yin kasuwanci ga masu insurer, to wannan zai yi rajista azaman rage farashin inshorar lafiya ga masu amfani, ko da ƙima da ɗaukar hoto sun kasance daidai ɗaya. Wannan yana da matsala ba kawai saboda yana karkatar da ainihin matakin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba har ma saboda yana rinjayar ƙididdiga don ciyar da masu amfani, ta hanyar rage yawan farashin farashi da haɓaka ƙididdiga don kashe kuɗin masu amfani da gaske kuma saboda haka gabaɗayan ayyukan tattalin arziki.
Tasirin Ci gaban Tattalin Arziki
Lamarin rashin kididdige hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya shafi yau musamman idan aka yi la'akari da yadda ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya yi yawa a cikin shekaru da dama da suka gabata. Haɗin kai da kansa ya ƙara ƙimar ƙima na ma'auni na tattalin arziki da yawa ba tare da haifar da wani canji na gaske ba. Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa aka sami irin wannan bambamci tsakanin saurin haɓakar haɓakar ƙima, GDP na farko kafin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma raguwar haɓakar haƙiƙa na gaske, bayan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.8
Ana gabatar da waɗannan bayanan ta hanyar da za a nuna wa mai karatu canji na ƙima da ƙima na gaske zuwa kashi na biyu na 2024, farawa a cikin kwata na farko na 2019 ko Janairu 2019, idan an zartar.9
Yi la'akari da cewa ba kawai gyare-gyaren hauhawar farashin kaya ke girma ba, amma suna da matukar canzawa, kama daga ƙasa da 20% don tallace-tallace na tallace-tallace zuwa 22% zuwa 23% don masana'antu da sababbin umarni.
Yayin da 3% na iya zama kamar ƙaramin bambanci, a cikin mahallin ci gaban GDP yana wakiltar kusan kusan dala tiriliyan 1 a cikin ainihin fitarwa - kusan GDP na Saudi Arabia. Kuma a cikin yanayin ci gaban tattalin arziki na shekara-shekara, 3% a cikin shekaru 4 yana da adadi mai yawa - bambanci tsakanin ci gaban mai ƙarfi da rashin jini. Ko tsakanin ci gaban anemia da koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Tasiri ga Kudaden Shiga
Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan duk lambobin hukuma ne. Lokacin da kuɗin shiga na mutum wanda za a iya zubar da shi ya ƙare tare da ingantacciyar ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki (cikakken bayani a ƙasa), ainihin haɓakar 12.9 bisa ɗari a cikin kuɗin da za a iya zubarwa daga kwata na farko na 2019 zuwa kwata na biyu na 2024 ya zama ainihin raguwar kashi 2.3 a cikin wannan lokacin - jimlar 15% bambanci.
Jadawalin da ke ƙasa yana kwatanta yadda saurin haɓakar kuɗin shiga na mutum da za a iya zubarwa a cikin 2020 da 2021 daga baya aka biya ta hanyar hauhawar farashi a cikin shekaru biyu da rabi bayan haka.
gyare-gyare ga Fihirisar Inflation
Don samar da wani ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki wanda zai nuna daidai gwargwado a cikin tsadar rayuwa, dole ne a yi gyare-gyare da yawa ga fihirisar farashin da ake amfani da su a asusun kasa. Ana iya rarraba waɗannan sauye-sauye zuwa rukuni uku: gidaje, nauyin tsari, da farashin da aka auna a kaikaice.
Bangaren gidaje ya sami tasiri mafi girma dangane da daidaitawa don ainihin tsadar rayuwa; a cikin kwata na biyu na 2024, ya ƙara yawan canji a cikin GDP deflator da kusan kashi 75 cikin ɗari. Wannan ya faru ne saboda haɗuwa ba kawai farashin gida mafi girma ba har ma da yawan kuɗin ruwa. Ma’ana ana biyan jinginar gida ne daga adadin da aka aro da kuma kudin ruwa, idan kuma farashin gidaje da kudin ruwa biyu suka hauhawa to farashin mallakar gida ya tashi ta bangarorin biyu.
Sabanin haka, ta yin amfani da wannan ingantacciyar hanyar ƙima mai ƙarancin ruwa a cikin 2019, 2020, da farkon 2021 a zahiri suna da mummunan tasiri a kan mai lalata GDP. Wato gyara ya rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a wadannan shekarun.
Hakanan, rushewar zamanin Trump ya haifar da raguwar raguwar tsadar rayuwa wanda ba a kama shi ta hanyar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin 2019 da 2020, yanayin da ya koma kwata na hudu na 2022 a karkashin Biden-Harris.
Maye gurbin ma'auni na kai tsaye don waɗanda aka gyara kai tsaye yana da iyakataccen tasiri akan mai kashe GDP a cikin shekarun da ake tambaya. Wannan wani bangare ne saboda matsalolin da ke tattare da auna abubuwan kashe mabukaci kamar inshorar lafiya ba tare da kirgawa biyu (ko nauyi biyu) wasu siyayya ba, kamar kulawar likita ko kayayyakin kula da lafiya.
Bayanan da ke biyowa sun haɗa da sabuntawar shekara-shekara na 2024 na Asusun Tattalin Arziƙi na Ƙasa da BEA ta buga a watan Satumba na 2024. Ƙididdigar GDP ya karu a kowane kwata na 2019 kafin yin kwangila a farkon rabin 2020. Tun daga wannan lokacin, GDP na ƙididdiga ya ci gaba da haɓaka zuwa kashi na biyu na 2024.
A taƙaice ɗaukacin lokacin, GDP na ƙididdiga a daidaitaccen adadin shekara-shekara a cikin kwata na biyu na 2024 ya kai kashi 37.4 bisa ɗari fiye da kwata na farko na 2019.
Wani muhimmin sashi na wannan karuwar, duk da haka, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ne kawai. Daidaita hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na BEA yana rage girma a wannan lokacin daga kashi 37.4 zuwa kashi 13.7 cikin ɗari, ko kusan kashi biyu bisa uku na haɓakar ƙima.
Daidaita hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na BEA na fama da matsalolin da aka zayyana a baya. Yin amfani da gyare-gyare na GDP wanda ya haɗa da ƙarin ingantattun ma'auni don gidaje, farashi na tsari, da farashin kai tsaye yana haifar da ingantaccen ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kuma don haka ingantaccen ƙimar GDP na gaske.
Yayin da BEA ta ce daga kwata na farko na shekarar 2019 zuwa kwata na biyu na 2024 GDP deflator ya karu da kashi 20.9 cikin dari, canjin GDP da aka gyara ya karu da kashi 39.9 bisa dari a daidai wannan lokacin.
Wannan yana haifar da ingantaccen GDP na gaske a ƙasa da adadi na ainihin GDP na hukuma wanda BEA ta kiyasta: Maimakon karuwar kashi 13.7 cikin ɗari, ainihin GDPn da aka daidaita yana nuna raguwar kashi 2.5 daga farkon kwata na 2019 zuwa kwata na biyu na 2024.
A cikin dala 2017 da aka ɗaure, gyara ainihin GDP a cikin kwata na biyu zai zama kusan dala biliyan 19,924, kusan dala biliyan 3,300 ƙasa da ainihin ainihin GDP na dala biliyan 23,224. Don hangen nesa, wannan shine sau 1.5 na GDP na Kanada.
Ya zuwa rabin na biyu na 2021, jimlar ainihin GDP da daidaitawa na ainihin GDP sun kusan iri ɗaya: A cikin kwata na uku na waccan shekarar, sun kasance kashi 5.6 cikin ɗari da 6.0 bisa ɗari sama da matakansu a farkon kwata na 2019. A cikin kwata na huɗu na 2021, haɓaka ya kasance kashi 7.5 da kashi 6.9, bi da bi.
Tare da saurin haɓakar farashin yayin 2022, duk da haka, waɗannan ma'auni sun bambanta sosai. GDP na gaske ya ragu kaɗan kaɗan a cikin kwata na farko na 2022, amma gyara na ainihin GDP ya faɗi da ƙarfi, wanda ya biyo baya da sauri cikin kwata na biyu.
Zuwa kashi na hudu na waccan shekarar, raguwar da aka danganta da kwata na farko na shekarar 2019 ya zarce wanda aka gani a lokacin kulle-kullen da gwamnati ta sanya a shekarar 2020. A cikin shekaru biyu daga kashi na biyu na 2022 zuwa kwata na biyu na 2024, kusan babu wani ci gaban tattalin arziki bisa ga wannan gyara na ainihin GDP.
Bisa ga kowane mutum, sakamakon ya fi muni saboda yawan jama'a ya karu kusan kashi 2.1 daga kashi na farko na shekarar 2019 zuwa kashi na biyu na 2024. A wannan lokacin, GDP na kowane mutum ya karu dala 22,182, ko kashi 34.7 bisa dari. GDP na gaske ya karu dala 7,038 a cikin dala 2017 da aka daure, ko kashi 11.4 cikin dari. Daidaitaccen GDP na gaske ya faɗi $1,540, ko kashi 2.5 cikin ɗari.
Ko da ba tare da la'akari da karuwar yawan jama'a da GDP na kowane mutum ba, daidaitattun ƙimar GDP na ainihi yana nuna cewa al'ummar kasar sun shiga cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki a farkon kwata na 2022 kuma sun kasance a cikin wannan kwangila ta hanyar kashi na biyu na 2024. A cikin uku kawai daga cikin goman goma sun daidaita karuwar GDP na gaske (tare da daya kasancewa kawai karuwa ne kawai) kuma babu wani daga cikin karuwar da ya faru a cikin rubu'i a jere.
Kammalawa
Dangane da gyare-gyaren da muka yi, an samu raguwar hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki tun daga shekarar 2019 da kusan rabin. Wannan ya haifar da haɓakar haɓakar haɓaka da kusan 15%. Wannan adadi ne mai yawa na shekaru 5 kawai - don hangen nesa, raguwar kololuwa a cikin ainihin GDP yayin rikicin 2008 ya kasance 4%.
Haka kuma, waɗannan gyare-gyaren suna nuna cewa a zahiri tattalin arzikin Amurka ya kasance cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki tun daga 2022.
Wadannan shawarwari sun bambanta sosai da labarin kafa cewa tattalin arzikin Amurka yana jin daɗin ci gaba mai ƙarfi wanda saboda wasu dalilai jama'a ba za su iya fahimta ba.10 Tabbas, sakamakonmu ya yi daidai da tunanin jama'ar Amurka, waɗanda yawancinsu suka yi imanin cewa muna cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki.11
References
- "Farashin farashi ya fi girma fiye da ƙididdiga." Casselman, B. (2020, Satumba 2). The New York Times.
- "Trump ya sake cewa bayanan tattalin arziki labarai ne na karya." Yahoo Finance, 2024.
- Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Amurka, Auna Tattalin Arziki: Farko kan GDP da Ƙimar Kuɗi na Ƙasa da Asusun Samfura, Disamba 2015. Duba kuma Hanyoyi, Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Amurka.
- Ofishin Kididdiga na Ma'aikata na Amurka, Auna Canjin Farashi a cikin CPI: Daidaitan Hayar da Hayar. Duba kuma Ƙididdiga daidaitattun haya na kuɗin gidaje na ƙasa da na yanki, Ingantattun Matakan Sabis na Gidaje don Asusun Tattalin Arziƙin Amurka (Mayu 2021), da Littafin Jagora na NIPA, Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Amurka, don bayani kan kashe kuɗin hayar da mai shi ya mamaye.
- Dubi Daidaita Daidaita a cikin CPI, Daidaita Daidaita a cikin Fihirisar Farashin Mai samarwa, Da kuma Bita na Dabarun Daidaita Farashin Hedonic don Kayayyakin da ke Fuskantar Canjin Ingancin Saurin Sauri, Ofishin Kididdigar Ma'aikata na Amurka. Duba kuma Matsayin Hanyoyin Hedonic a Auna Gaskiya na GDP a Amurka, da Littafin Jagora na NIPA, Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Amurka. Ana iya samun ƙarin misalai na buƙata da aikace-aikacen gyare-gyaren hedonic a ciki Hanyar don Ƙungiyoyin Farashi na Yanki, Kashe Kuɗi na Kasuwanci na Gaskiya, da Kudin shiga na Gaskiya na Gaskiya, Afrilu 2023, da Fadada Matsayin Hanyoyin Hedonic a cikin Ƙididdiga na Hukuma na Amurka, Yuni 2001, Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Amurka. Duba kuma Daidaita Inganci a Sikeli: Hedonic vs. Madaidaicin Ƙididdigar Ƙididdigar Farashin da aka Buƙata, Yuni 2023 kuma an sabunta Oktoba 2024, da Amfani da Koyon Inji don Gina Fihirisar Farashin Hedonic, Yuni 2023, Ofishin Binciken Tattalin Arziki na Ƙasa.
- Don ƙarin bayani mai zurfi a kan wasu hanyoyin da masu mulki da masu kididdigar gwamnati ke kula da ingancin inganci da canje-canjen farashin da suka shafi canje-canjen tsari, duba Ma'aikatar Gudanarwa da Da'awar Kasafin Kuɗi No. A-4, wanda aka bayar a ranar 9 ga Nuwamba, 2023, wanda ya maye gurbin da'ira na wannan sunan da aka bayar a ranar 17 ga Satumba, 2003. Duba kuma littafin Disamba 2020 na Majalisar Masu Ba da Shawarar Tattalin Arziki. Ƙididdiga Ƙididdiga na Ƙarfafa Kera Motoci Amfani da Farashin Kasuwa don Kiredit ɗin Fitarwa, misali inda canje-canjen tsari ya haifar da canje-canjen farashi da ingancin da aka nuna a cikin asusun kasa. An riga an nuna tasirin wasu manyan ƙa'idodi a cikin ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yayin da wasu ba su kasance ba.
- Ofishin Kididdigar Ma'aikata na Amurka, Auna Canjin Farashin a cikin CPI: Kula da Lafiya, Haɓaka zuwa Fihirisar Inshorar Lafiya ta CPI, Littafin Hannun Hannu na BLS. Duba kuma Zamantake Fihirisar Farashin Mabukaci na 21st Century (2022), Makarantun Kimiyya na Kasa, Injiniya, da Magunguna, da Ma'aikatar Kwadago ta Amurka.
- Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Amurka.
- Samun Kuɗi na Keɓaɓɓen Kayayyakin Kayayyaki, Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki na Amurka. Fihirisar Farashin Mabukaci; Fihirisar Farashin Mai samarwa; Ofishin Kididdigar Ma'aikata na Amurka. Ci gaba na Watanni da Na wata-wata na Kasuwancin Kasuwanci da Rahoton Kasuwancin Imel na Kwata-kwata; Binciken Kayayyakin Masana'antu, Kayayyaki, & Umarni (M3).; Rahoton Kasuwancin Jumla na wata-wata; Ofishin Kidayar Amurka.
- Scanlon, Kyla. "Abin da ya sa mutane ke jin ruɓe game da Tattalin Arziki." Al'amuran Yanzu, Agusta 8, 2024, www.currentaffairs.org/2024/08/why-people-feel-rotten-about-the-economy.
- Peck, Emily. "Fiye da rabin Amurkawa suna tunanin Amurka na cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki, kamar yadda kuri'u ta nuna." Axios, Mayu 23, 2024, www.axios.com/2024/05/23/us-recession-economic-data-poll.
EJ Antoni ɗan Bincike ne a Cibiyar Grover M. Hermann ta Gidauniyar Heritage Foundation don Kasafin Kudi na Tarayya. MA da PhD a fannin tattalin arziki sun fito ne daga Jami'ar Arewacin Illinois.
Peter St. Onge tsohon mataimakin farfesa ne a Jami'ar Feng Chia kuma mai ba da shawara mai zaman kansa. MA da PhD a fannin tattalin arziki sun fito ne daga Jami'ar George Mason.
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EJ Antoni ɗan Bincike ne a Cibiyar Grover M. Hermann ta Gidauniyar Heritage Foundation don Kasafin Kudi na Tarayya. MA da PhD a fannin tattalin arziki sun fito ne daga Jami'ar Arewacin Illinois.
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Peter masanin tattalin arziki ne, Fellow a Cibiyar Mises, kuma tsohon farfesa na MBA.
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