To, ga wani abin firgita. Wannan rahoton Sashen Kasuwanci ya nuna haka ainihin abin yarwa na sirri kudin shiga a watan Maris ya shigo a -19.9% a kan Maris 2021.
Wannan raguwa mai ban mamaki, ba shakka, har yanzu wata shaida ce ga tsohuwar gani game da "abin da ke kewaye, yana zuwa." Wato, kudaden shiga na gaske na watan Maris da ya gabata ya karu da kusan kashi 29% saboda yawan kudaden kara kuzari na Biden. Amma tun daga wancan lokacin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya yi kamari, duk da cewa Washington ta daina jijiya a gaban kasafin kudi.
Canjin Y/Y A Cikin Kudin Da Za'a Iya Ashe Na Gaskiya, Fabrairu 2020 zuwa Maris 2022
Abin da wannan ke tunatar da shi, ba shakka, shi ne cewa ba mu cikin tsarin kasuwanci na yau da kullun. Washington kawai ta yi taka-tsan-tsan kan harkokin kasafin kudi da na kudi saboda tabarbarewar tattalin arzikin da rashin goyon bayan Trump na kulle-kullen Covid ya haifar. Wadannan manyan fashe-fashen tashin hankali, su kuma, sun haifar da rudani da sauyin yanayi a cikin kwata-kwata na kudaden shiga da kashe kudi.
Kuma, ee, Donald ya mallaki hauka na Lockdown na 2020, wanda ya sa GDP ya ragu da kashi 37% na shekara-shekara a cikin kwata na Afrilu-Yuni na waccan shekarar. Bayan haka, babu wanda ya ce dole ne ya saurari irin ma'aikatan kididdiga irin su Dr. Fauci da Uwargidan Scarf, amma ya kasance ba shi da masaniya, kasala, da jin kunya don aika musu kaya.
A kowane hali, a cikin tarihin Amurka ba a taɓa samun fashewar abubuwan biyan kuɗi kyauta kamar abin da ya faru a agogon Donald a lokacin 2020 da Q1 2021. Kuma, a, kuna iya sirdi shi da babban rabo na laifi har ma da kashe $1.9 biliyan Biden a cikin Maris 2021. Wannan saboda an dogara ne akan kammalawa mutum na biyun da ya yi taurin kai ga Donald na biyu. domin a lokacin yakin neman zaben 2,000.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa, yawan kuɗin gudu na shekara-shekara na jimlar kuɗin canja wurin gwamnati (ciki har da jiha da yanki na jindaɗi da Medicaid) ya kasance kusan dala tiriliyan 3, amma bayan Fabrairu 2020 ya ƙaru zuwa lambar zip daban-daban. Don haka, idan aka kwatanta da dala tiriliyan 3.15 Farashin na Fabrairu 2020, ɗimbin ɗimbin kuɗin canja wuri ya faru kamar haka:
- Afrilu 2020: $6.49 tiriliyan, sama da 106%;
- Janairu 2021: $5.65 tiriliyan, sama da 79%;
- Maris 2021: $8.05 tiriliyan, ya karu 155%.
Kash, har ma da barkewar hauka na kasafin kudi a karshe ya zo karshe. Sakamakon haka, adadin gudu na biyan kuɗin da aka bayar a safiyar yau na Maris 2022 ya kasance dala tiriliyan 3.86 kawai, adadi. - $4.19 tiriliyan da kuma 52% kasa da na Maris 2021.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, ba a gina tattalin arzikin Amurka ko ƙirar masana tattalin arziƙi don tafiyar da jujjuyawar irin wannan babban girma. Dangane da haka, tattalin arzikin Amurka yanzu yana tafiya makaho zuwa wani alkibla wanda ya hada da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma koma baya ga dimbin kudi da kasafin kudi wanda ya gurbata ayyukan tattalin arziki cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata.
Jimlar Canja wurin Biyan Kuɗi na Gwamnati A Matsayin Shekara-shekara, Janairu 2019 zuwa Maris 2022
A halin yanzu, rugujewar kuɗaɗen kuɗi da kuma biyan kuɗin canja wuri bai rage jinkirin duk wani shiri na kashe kuɗi na ɓangaren gida ba. A cikin Maris, kashe kuɗi ya karu da 1.1% daga Fabrairu kuma ya karu da 9.1% daga shekarar da ta gabata.
Amma hakan ya faru ne kawai saboda gidaje sun mayar da kuɗin ajiyar su zuwa kashi 6.2% na kudin shiga da za a iya zubarwa - matakin mafi ƙasƙanci tun Disamba 2013, kuma kusan rabin kashi 10% -12% na ƙimar da ta yi rinjaye kafin farkon karni.
An faɗo ta daban, ƙuruciyar ɗan lokaci a cikin ƙididdige ƙimar tanadi wanda ya faru a tsakanin Afrilu 2020 zuwa Maris 2021 kyakkyawan kayan tarihi ne na hauka na kasafin kuɗi na Washington: Ana tura kaya kyauta cikin asusun banki na gida cikin sauri fiye da yadda ma iyalai masu kashe kuɗi na Amurka za su iya zubar da shi.
Amma ga dukkan dalilai masu amfani waɗanda yanzu tsohon tarihi ne. Bangaren iyali ya riga ya koma tsarin biyan kuɗi na albashi, ma'ana cewa idan zagaye na gaba na kora daga aiki ya faru, zai wuce kai tsaye zuwa rage kashe kuɗin amfani.
Adadin Ajiye Keɓaɓɓen, Disamba 2013 zuwa Maris 2022
Don son shakku, yana da haske don duba cikakken matakin tanadi na sirri (a yawan adadin shekara-shekara) da sauye-sauye masu ban mamaki waɗanda suka haifar da bayanan saboda rashin ƙarfi. Wadannan bayanai sun bayyana a fili cewa ana zargin matakan "karfi" na halin yanzu na kashe kuɗin gida a kan lokaci guda ta hanyar cire ajiyar kuɗi.
Don ma'ana, adadin gudu na tanadi na sirri ya kusa $ 1.19 tiriliyan a kowace shekara a cikin Disamba 2019, yana nuna matsakaicin matsakaicin 7-8% na tanadi wanda ya yi nasara yayin dawowar bayan 2008-2009. Amma wannan adadi ya yi yawa $ 6.39 tiriliyan da kuma $ 5.76 tiriliyan a cikin Afrilu 2020 da Maris 2021, bi da bi, lokacin da Majalisa ta buge sashin gida tare da kaya kyauta daga ƙarshen kasafin kuɗi.
Saƙon bayyane na ginshiƙi, duk da haka, shine cewa wannan ɓarna ya ƙare kuma an gama. A cikin Maris 2022, a zahiri, matakin tanadi ya ragu zuwa dala tiriliyan 1.15 (ana yi shekara-shekara). Wannan a zahiri ya kasance ƙasa da ƙimar yanayin sa na pre-Covid, kuma yana da ban mamaki - $4.61 tiriliyan ko 80% kasa da matakinsa na Maris 2021.
A cikin kalma ɗaya, kashe kuɗin gida da lambobi na GDP an yi su sosai a cikin 'yan watannin nan ta hanyar raguwar matakan ajiyar da ba a taɓa yin irinsa ba wanda aka samo asali ta hanyar bincike mai kuzari. Amma wannan dabarar za a iya yin ta sau ɗaya kawai, kuma sandunan rawaya masu saukowa a cikin ginshiƙi na ƙasa sun bayyana a fili cewa yana wasa da ramuwar gayya.
Matakan Ajiye Keɓaɓɓen, 2019-2022
A gaskiya ma, gajiyawar raguwar ajiyar kuɗi tare da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya riga ya bayyana a cikin ma'auni na gaskiya na ciyarwar gida - ainihin PCE (kashewar amfani da mutum).
Duk da haka 9.1% Adadin Y/Y nominal PCE (layi mai ruwan hoda) ya ruwaito wannan safiya don Maris, samun Y/Y a zahiri (layin baki) ya kasance kawai 2.3%. Wannan ya kwatanta da 7.3%, 9.3% da 25.4% a cikin Nuwamba, Yuni da Afrilu na 2021, bi da bi.
A takaice, tare da raguwar ajiyar kuɗi da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kaya sama da albashi da samun albashi, ainihin PCE ana jan hankali zuwa layin layi. Domin abin da ya yi daidai da kankana da ke wucewa ta cikin Boa Constrictor yanzu ya fita daga dabbar.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin Naƙasasshe da PCE na Gaskiya, Maris 2021 zuwa Maris 2022
Tabbas, rahoton na yau har ma ya sanya kibosh akan iƙirarin cewa ƙaƙƙarfan haɓakar ma'aikata da albashi za su ci gaba da bunƙasa sashin gida tare da cikakken ikon kashe kuɗi. Kamar yadda ya faru, a zahiri, samun 11.7% Y/Y na Maris a cikin jimillar albashi da albashin da aka samu akan bubblevision wannan AM ba daidai yake da abin da ya fashe ba.
Wannan saboda lokacin da kuka kawar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, adadi na Y/Y yana raguwa zuwa kyakkyawan mai tafiya a ƙasa 3.1%. Har ila yau, idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin tun daga watan Afrilun da ya gabata, lokacin da ƙididdiga na ƙididdiga na ƙididdiga da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki suka karu da 15.3% da 11.2%, bi da bi, babu wani abu da za a yi jayayya akai.
Don sanin, yayin da haɓakar Y/Y na albashin ma'aikata da albashi ya ragu da mafi ƙarancin 24%, haɓakar haɓakar ma'aikata na gaske da albashin albashi ya ragu da kashi 72%. Amma duk da haka yana da tabbas cewa jimillar ayyukan yi da karuwar albashi za su ci gaba da raguwa, duk da cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya karu - ma'ana cewa karuwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na gida zai ci gaba da raguwa.
Canje-canjen Y/Y A cikin Matsakaicin Ma'aikata da Haɓaka Haɓaka Haɓaka Ma'aikata da Rarraba Kudaden Albashi, Afrilu 2021 zuwa Maris 2022
A ƙarshe, adadi na Maris na ma'aunin ma'aunin farashi na Fed wanda aka fi so - PCE deflator - yana da ma'anoni biyu masu haske: Na farko, cewa hauhawar farashin farashi yana haɓaka, kuma na biyu, cewa Fed ba zai kasance cikin matsayi don sauƙaƙe kan matsayinta na hana hauhawar farashin kaya ba a kowane lokaci nan da nan.
Taswirar da ke ƙasa ya nuna cewa Fed ba shi da bege a baya da hauhawar farashin kaya da kuma cewa ka'idar "lowflation" da aka dade tana da shi ya kasance cikakke crock, wanda ke tallafawa ta wucin gadi amma maras kyau a cikin farashin farashi don kayayyaki masu ɗorewa da marasa ƙarfi.
Saboda haka, bankunan bayanai guda biyu da ke ƙasa suna taƙaita ƙimar hauhawar Y/Y don manyan sassa uku na PCE deflator, da maƙasudin gabaɗaya. Bambanci tsakanin lokutan biyu shine dare da rana, kuma kamar yadda ginshiƙi ya nuna yana ƙara lalacewa.
Canjin Mai Kashe Y/Y Zuwa Q4 2019:
- Ayyukan PCE: + 2.2%;
- PCE Durables: -1.5%:
- PCE marasa ƙarfi: + 0.4%;
- Jimlar PCE Deflator: +1.5%;
Canjin Mai Kashe Y/Y Zuwa Q1 2022:
- Ayyukan PCE: + 4.6%;
- PCE Durables: + 10.9%;
- PCE marasa ƙarfi:+8.8%;
- Jimlar PCE Deflator: + 6.3%
Ganin cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, wanda koyaushe ya kasance sama da manufar Fed, yanzu ya ninka sau biyu daga 2.2% zuwa 4.5% da kuma cewa sojojin da ke tuki biyun durables (sarkin sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya) da marasa ƙarfi (kayan kasuwa na duniya) suna ci gaba da ƙaruwa, ƙimar ƙimar layin ƙasa. 6.3% wanda aka buga don Maris ba shi da inda za a je sai sama, kuma sosai.
Don haka, tambayar ta kasance. A karkashin wani labari mai zuwa wanda PCE deflator ke tashi zuwa 10% shin ana iya tunanin cewa Fed na iya sauƙaƙawa kan kamun kuɗi-musamman lokacin lokacin zaɓe wanda GOP zai kasance cikin kukan yaƙin hauhawar farashin kaya?
Canjin Y/Y A cikin PCE Deflator Da Manyan Abubuwan Sa, Q4 2019-Q1 2022
Muna tsammanin amsar tambayar da ke sama ba ta da kyau, kuma hakan yana nufin abin da ke tafe zuwa kasuwar hannun jari mai ƙima da ƙima zai zama na Littafi Mai Tsarki.
Wannan shi ne saboda yawan riba zai tashi sama da tsammanin yanzu kafin Fed a ƙarshe ya yi nasara a cikin haɓakar hauhawar farashin kaya da aika tattalin arziki a cikin abin sha; da kuma saboda manyan “ci gaban” canards waɗanda suka tabbatar da ficewa daga wannan PEs na duniya a fannin fasaha, musamman a tsakanin FANGMAN, tuni sun fara buɗewa.
Duk tare da hujjarmu ta kasance cewa irin su Amazon, Google da sauran su nan ba da jimawa ba za su yi adawa da dokar ƙarfe na ci gaban GDP. Wato, yawan ci gaban da suke samu na shekaru goma da suka gabata ba su dawwama domin sun kasance saboda sauye-sauyen tattalin arziki na lokaci guda, kamar motsin dalolin talla daga gado zuwa kafofin watsa labarai na dijital da kuma canjin tallace-tallace daga bulo da shagunan turmi zuwa eCommerce.
Haka kuma, babban rugujewar tattalin arzikin da Covid Lockdowns ya haifar a zahiri ya haɓaka waɗannan sauye-sauye, wanda ya kawo ranar ƙarshe, don haka ci gaban tushen GDP, yana ci gaba sosai cikin lokaci.
Rahoton albashi na Q1 na wannan makon tsakanin manyan masu fasahar fasaha sun tabbatar da waɗancan jigogi a cikin fage. Misali, kudaden shiga na Amazon ya karu da kashi 7% a cikin kwata na farko, idan aka kwatanta da fadada kashi 44% a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Wannan yana nuna mafi ƙarancin kuɗi na kowane kwata tun lokacin bust dot-com a cikin 2001 da madaidaiciyar lokaci na biyu madaidaiciyar haɓakar lambobi ɗaya ga giant eCommerce.
Haka kuma, Amazon ya ce yana aiwatar da kudaden shiga a cikin kwata na dala biliyan 116 zuwa dala biliyan 121, wanda ya rasa matsakaicin kididdigar dala biliyan 125.5. Wannan yana nufin haɓakar kashi na biyu cikin huɗu na kudaden shiga na iya raguwa har ma da gaba, zuwa tsakanin 3% da kuma 7% daga shekarar da ta gabata.
Tabbas, Amazon har yanzu yana da kaso mafi girma na kasuwancin kan layi, kusan 39%, a cewar Insider Intelligence. Amma kamfanin leken asiri na kasuwanci ya kuma ce ci gaban sashin ya yi layi-layi kwanan nan kuma yana annabta cewa ci gaban shekara-shekara a cikin biyan kuɗi na Firayim a Amurka, sau ɗaya kusan 20%, zai ragu zuwa 2% nan da 2025.
Kamar yadda yake, Amazon a zahiri ya buga asarar dala biliyan 3.8 a cikin kwata na farko, kuma, mafi mahimmanci, korau free tsabar kudi kwarara na $ 18.6 biliyan. Don haka lokaci ne kawai kafin saura $ 1.242 tiriliyan na kasuwar kasuwa (bayan zubar da jini a yau) ya koma kasa.
Kuma ba Amazon kadai ba. Faɗin kamfanoni a faɗin masana'antu suna fuskantar faɗuwar siyayya ta kan layi. A watan Maris, kashe kuɗin kan layi a Amurka ya kasance saukar da 3.3% daga shekara guda da ta gabata, irin wannan raguwa ta farko tun 2013, a cewar MasterCard SpendingPulse.
Hakazalika, kudaden shiga na talla na Google sun ragu sosai daga kashi 34% a watan Maris din da ya gabata zuwa kashi 22% na lokacin LTM da ke kare a watan Maris na 2022, yayin da kudaden talla na Facebook ya ragu zuwa kawai. 6.1%. Wannan shine mafi rauni fadada a cikin tarihin shekaru 10 na kamfanin.
Bugu da ƙari, ƙattai na dijital sun riga sun mamaye sama da kashi biyu bisa uku na kudaden talla, ma'ana cewa wani lokaci ba da nisa sosai a hanya ba, haɓakar kudaden shiga zai karkata zuwa matakin 2% +/- na masana'antar talla gabaɗaya. A wannan lokacin, dala tiriliyan 2.1 na haɗewar kasuwar Facebook da Google ba zai iya jure wa ƙananan kudaden shiga na lambobi ɗaya ba da haɓakar samun kuɗi.
Don haka, a, rahoton na yau ya gaya wa taron bubblevision cewa kashe kuɗin masu amfani a cikin Maris ya shigo da kashi 9.1% sama da shekarar da ta gabata kuma saboda haka komai ya yi kyau.
Ba haka ba. Ba da mil mil na ƙasa ba.
An sake buga shi daga Kusurwar Stockman.
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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