Wani lokaci yana da kyau a koma cikin tarihi don fahimtar ainihin yadda aka ƙirƙiri wani abu mai girma. Wannan shi ne labarin yadda kuskuren bayanai guda ɗaya ya mayar da duniyarmu ta koma baya tare da lalata rayuwar miliyoyin mutane.
Yana iya zama da wuya a yi imani cewa babban kuskure ɗaya (ko ƙarya, daidai) zai iya haifar da duk matakan shawo kan cutar, musamman kulle-kulle, rufe makarantu da keɓewa, waɗanda suka lalata rayuwarmu, tattalin arzikinmu da al'ummarmu. Amma abin ya faru. Zan yi amfani da nazari mai ban sha'awa guda biyu da aka buga a cikin 2020 don tallafawa rubutuna.
Idan mutum mai iko sosai, mai tasiri ya gaya wa duniya a farkon 2020 cewa sabuwar kwayar cutar ta China da ke haifar da kamuwa da cutar ta COVID-19 ta kasance mai kisa musamman, to za ku iya tunanin za a dauki matakin gaggawa, mai girma don kare lafiyar jama'a. Idan gaskiya aka fada.
Amma da farko yana da mahimmanci a tattauna ma'anar kalmomi masu mahimmanci.
Hanya ɗaya mai sauƙi kuma madaidaiciyar hanya ita ce mutane nawa ne ke mutuwa daga kamuwa da cuta da ƙwayoyin cuta ke haifarwa: Ƙimar Cutar Cutar (IFR). Amma wata hanya mai yuwuwa ita ce a kira Case Fatality Rate (CFR); kaso daga cikin bayanan da aka rubuta na mutanen da ke dauke da kwayar cutar da ke haifar da mutuwa.
Ta yaya za ku san adadin mutanen da suka kamu da cutar? Gwaji da yawa zai zama dole. Don cutar ta mu ta COVID an sami, abin mamaki, ƙarancin gwajin jini mai faɗi a cikin jama'a. Yawancin mutanen da ke fama da cututtuka ba su da alamun cutar ko kuma masu laushi kawai kuma ba sa neman gwaji ko kulawar likita. CDC ta yi mummunan aiki na samun kyakkyawan bayanai akan lambobin kamuwa da cuta.
Dangane da lamuran da aka danganta da COVID, akwai dalilan da ya sa tabbas adadin ya raina yawan mutanen da suka kamu da cutar. Me yasa? Domin wasu mutane ne kawai, yawanci masu alamun alamun, ana gwada su kuma idan an same su da inganci sun zama shari'a.
A gefe guda, hanyar gwajin PCR da aka fi amfani da ita sau da yawa an aiwatar da ita ta hanyar samun sakamako mai kyau na ƙarya. Mafi yawa saboda adadin zagayowar gwajin da ake yi ya yi yawa (sama da 25) kuma yana ɗaukar gutsuttsuran ƙwayar cuta (ko kowane coronavirus) wanda ba ya rubuta ainihin kamuwa da cutar COVID. Don haka, CFR ba abin dogaro ba ne ko ingantacciyar ma'auni na ainihin adadin mutuwa duk da lambobi da aka buga a ko'ina.
A yayin sauraren karar ranar 11 ga Maris, 2020 na Kwamitin Sa ido da Gyara na Majalisar game da shirye-shiryen coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci, darektan Cibiyar Allergy da Cututtuka, ya bayyana a sarari: "Cutar yanayi da muke fama da ita kowace shekara tana da mace-mace na 0.1%," in ji shi ga kwamitin majalisar, yayin da coronavirus ke "mutuwa fiye da sau 10 a kowace shekara. kididdiga labarai. Ya kuma ce: "Layin ƙasa: Zai yi muni." Kuma wannan: "Bayanan mace-mace, gabaɗaya, na [coronavirus], idan kuka kalli duk bayanan ciki har da China, kusan kashi 3 ne."
To, wannan adadi na kashi 3% ya ninka adadin da aka bayar na mura na yanayi sau 30.
Abin da Fauci ya fada ya sanya kasar, tare da taimakon manyan kafafen yada labarai, cikin rudani. Ya ƙirƙiri tushe don sarrafa yaɗuwar ikon mallaka yana haifar da haɓaka cikin rayuwar Amurkawa.
Babban bincike
Yanzu yi la'akari da cikakken bincike "Darussan Kiwon Lafiyar Jama'a da aka Koyi Daga Rashin Ra'ayi a cikin Ƙimar Mutuwar Coronavirus" na Ronald B. Brown wallafa a watan Agusta 2020. Yana da digiri na uku a fannin kiwon lafiyar jama'a da halayyar kungiya.
Anan akwai ƙarin bayanai daga wannan labarin waɗanda suka mai da hankali kan abin da Fauci ya ce.
"Ingantacciyar wannan kiyasin na iya amfana daga tantancewa don nuna son kai da kuma kuskure. Babban makasudin wannan labarin shine a yi la'akari da kididdigar mutuwar coronavirus da aka gabatar wa Majalisa."
[Abin da Fauci ya ce] "ya taimaka ƙaddamar da yaƙin neman zaɓe na nisantar da jama'a, kulle-kullen ƙungiyoyi da kasuwanci, da oda-wuri."
"A baya ga sauraron karar, an sami ƙarancin ƙima game da mutuwar coronavirus a cikin editan NIAID [sashen Fauci] da Cibiyar Kula da Cututtuka (CDC) da aka fitar a ranar 28 ga Fabrairu, 2020. mura (wanda ke da adadin mace-mace kusan 19%).' Kusan a matsayin tunani na baya-bayan nan, editan NEJM ya bayyana ba daidai ba cewa 0.1% shine kimanin adadin mace-mace na mura na yanayi.
Brown daidai ya buga maɓallin mahimmin batun: CFR da IFR.
"An kiyasta IFRs bayan barkewar cutar, yawanci bisa la'akari da samfuran samfuran gwajin jini na tsarin rigakafi a cikin mutanen da aka fallasa su da kwayar cutar. Ana buƙatar kimanta IFR a cikin COVID-19 cikin gaggawa don tantance girman cutar amai da gudawa." [Yanzu, bayan shekara guda wannan bai faru ba.]
Brown ya jaddada daidai "yana da mahimmanci kada a rikita yawan mace-mace [CFR da IFR] da juna; in ba haka ba lissafin yaudara tare da babban sakamako na iya haifar da shi." [Hakanan shine ainihin abin da Fauci ya kirkira.]
Brown ya ce adadi na 1% a cikin shaidar ya yi daidai da "coronavirus CFR na 1.8-3.4% (matsakaici, 2.6%) wanda CDC ta ruwaito." [Yayinda nake rubuta wannan bayanan a cikin The Washington Post yana nuna CFR na 1.6%. Wannan yana tabbatar da cewa tsarin kula da lafiya ya sami ci gaba wajen dakile mutuwar COVID. Amma wannan CFR na yanzu yana da ninki 16 sama da adadin IFR na mura na yanayi. IFR ya kasance batun.]
Yanzu Brown ya shiga zuciyar matsalar: "Kwantawar coronavirus da mura na yanayi CFR na iya kasancewa an yi niyya yayin shaidar Majalisa, amma saboda ɓata IFR a matsayin CFR, kwatancen ya kasance tsakanin daidaitawar coronavirus CFR na 1% da mura IFR na 0.1%."
Shin Fauci, masanin da ake yabawa sosai, bai san abin da yake yi ba? Yana da wuya a yarda da wannan.
Ya zuwa Mayu 2020 "a bayyane yake cewa yawan mace-mace na coronavirus na kakar bana ba zai kusan mutuwar mutane 800,000 da aka kwatanta daga Ƙimar mace-mace sau 10 an ruwaito ga Majalisa [ƙara da ƙarfafawa]. Ko da bayan daidaitawa don tasirin matakan rage cin nasara wanda zai iya rage saurin yaduwar cutar ta coronavirus, da alama ba zai yuwu a kawar da mutuwar da yawa ta hanyar sa baki na magunguna kamar nisantar da jama'a, wanda kawai aka yi niyya don ɗaukar watsa kamuwa da cuta, ba hana kamuwa da cuta da kuma asarar rayuka.
Dangane da samun bayanai masu kyau don tantance IFR, Brown ya lura: “Wani sabon fasalin binciken da ba na tsara ba kan COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence a Santa Clara County, California, ya gano cewa cututtuka sun ninka sau da yawa fiye da tabbatar da lamuran da aka tabbatar. isa don hanzarta kawo ƙarshen ƙarshen-taron don taƙaita matakan takaitawa."
A takaice dai, tare da gwajin jini na tsari, idan muna da IFR don COVID kwatankwacin IFR don mura na yanayi, to yawancin ayyukan rikice-rikice da tsadar abubuwan da cibiyar kiwon lafiyar jama'a ke yi ba su dace ba. Kuma ba su kasance ba!
Wani bincike
Taken wannan Satumba 2020 Labari Len Cabrera shine "Kuskure ko magudi." Batun farko da aka yi shi ne: "Bita kan abubuwan farko da aka ambata a cikin takardar Dr. Brown da kuma rashin yin gyara ga rikodin ya nuna cewa kuskuren [da Fauci] ya yi a gaban Majalisa ba kuskure ba ne." Idan ba kuskure ba, to da gangan ne.
Wannan batu ya mutu akan: "A cikin shaidarsa, Dr. Fauci ya yi iƙirarin cewa mutuwar mura ta kasance 0.1% kuma adadin masu mutuwa na COVID ya kasance 3% amma yana iya zama ƙasa da 1% tare da maganganun asymptomatic.
Kuma an yi wannan batu mai mahimmanci: "Dukkanin cututtukan cututtuka ne, amma ba duk cututtukan da aka tabbatar sun kamu da cutar ba, don haka yawan kamuwa da cuta yakan wuce adadin lokuta, yana mai da IFR kasa da CFR." A wasu kalmomi, idan adadin wadanda suka mutu ya kasance iri ɗaya, to, ƙananan ƙididdiga don ƙididdige CFR idan aka kwatanta da na samun sakamakon IFR a mafi girma lamba ga CFR.
Shin za mu yarda cewa Fauci mai girma bai san wannan ba? Ko kuma yana da ma'ana a yanke cewa Fauci ya san ainihin abin da yake yi, wato ta amfani da wasu sauƙaƙe bayanai don haifar da rikicin annoba da ke buƙatar manyan ayyukan gwamnati? Fauci ya kafa matakin dabarun jiransa na rigakafin cutar da ya sayar wa Shugaba Trump. Wannan yana buƙatar gwamnati ta kafa shinge don amfani da aminci, arha, inganci da magungunan jeri na FDA da aka riga aka gano don warkar da COVID a farkon 2020, wato ivermectin da hydroxychloroquine. An ba da cikakkun bayanai game da waɗannan ka'idojin magani na farko Cutar Kwalara.
Anan ga wani batu da aka yi: "Duba a hankali game da shaidar yana nuna layin [COVID kasancewa sau 10 mafi muni fiye da mura] ba kuskure ba ne. An tambayi Dr. Fauci musamman ko COVID ba shi da kisa fiye da H1N1 ko SARS. Maimakon komawa ga nasa. NEJM Labarin yana mai cewa SARS na da adadin mace-mace na 9-10% (sau 3 zuwa 10 mafi muni fiye da COVID), Dr. Fauci ya ce, "Ba shakka… cutar ta 2009 ta H1N1 ta kasance ma kasa da kisa fiye da mura ta yau da kullun… Ya maimaita cewa "mutuwar COVID sau 10 ne (na mura)" kuma ya kammala da, "Dole ne mu ci gaba da wasan don hana hakan."
Wannan kuma wani ra'ayi ne na yau da kullun: "Wannan cikakken jerin sauyawa ne: IFR zuwa CFR, keɓewar son rai ga marasa lafiya zuwa keɓewa ga kowa da kowa, makonni biyu don daidaita tsarin zuwa kullewa mara iyaka har sai an sami rigakafin. (Idan kuna tunanin zai zama na son rai, ba ku kula ba.)
Ƙara wannan ga neman gaskiya: “A binciken a Faransa Ya duba bayanan mace-mace daga 1946 zuwa 2020 kuma ya kammala da cewa 'SARS-CoV-2 ba cuta ce mai saurin kamuwa da cutar ta numfashi ba "saboda babu wani karuwar mace-mace a cikin 2020, binciken ya ce, "ba a taba yin irinsa ba tare da keɓance yawan jama'a da keɓewa tare da marasa lafiya da marasa lafiya da yawa."
Anan shine daidai ƙarshen labarin: "Abin baƙin ciki, an yaudari 'yan siyasa da yawa kuma sun tafi tare da shawarwarin kulle-kulle da abin rufe fuska da suka biyo baya daga shaidar mutuwar Dr. Fauci sau 10. Kada ku yi tsammanin za su yarda da kurakuran su, ko dai. Wataƙila kawai abin da ya fi wahala ga ɗan siyasa fiye da faɗin gaskiya duka shine shigar da kuskure. "
Mecece gaskiya?
Idan kun saurari masana da yawa, kun ji wannan gaskiyar dangane da bayanan CDC: kashi 99.8 ko kashi 99.9 na mutane a duk shekaru da suka kamu da cutar ta COVID ba sa mutuwa. Wannan yana nufin cewa IFR gabaɗaya shine 0.1 ko 0.2 A wasu kalmomi, kama da mura IFR.
A cikin Satumba 2020 waɗannan bayanan da suka shafi shekarun CDC sun kasance ruwaito:
An sabunta ƙimar rayuwa ta ƙungiyar shekaru:
0-19: 99.997%, IFR .003
20-49: 99.98%, IFR .02
50-69: 99.5%, IFR .5
70+: 94.6%, IFR 5.4
Yana da kyau a yi tunanin cewa a yau waɗannan alkalumman sun ma fi kyau, amma CDC ba ta da alama tana ba da rahoton waɗannan bayanan akai-akai. Kwanan nan Labari Ya ce wannan: "Yayinda kiyasin adadin masu kamuwa da cutar COVID-19 (IFR) ya bambanta daga nazari zuwa nazari, ƙwararrun ƙwararrun sun sanya adadin masu mutuwa a ƙasa da kashi 1 na yawancin ƙungiyoyin shekaru." Fauci da gaske ya yi overhype COVID ga duka amma tsofaffi. Wannan yana goyan bayan ra'ayin fitaccen Dokta Peter McCollough cewa dabarar rigakafin COVID mai hikima da ta kasance ta yi wa tsofaffi hari, ba duka jama'a ba.
Wani sabon Rahoton daga sashen tsaro yana ba da bayanai kan mahalarta Medicare miliyan 5.6 masu cikakken alurar riga kafi masu shekaru 65 da haihuwa. Akwai sabbin cututtukan COVID 161,000 da aka samu kwanan nan kuma IFR ta kasance .021. An lura da IFR don wannan rukunin na 0.12 a lokacin Maris zuwa Disamba 2020 lokacin da ba a sami yawan alurar riga kafi ba. Dukansu IFRs sun yi ƙasa da ƙasa, nesa da ƙwayar cuta mai saurin kisa.
Motivation
Menene dalilin da ya sa Fauci ya gaya wa jama'a da gangan cewa sabuwar kwayar cutar ta fi murar yanayi? Wannan kwarin guiwar shi ne kafa wani tsari mai tsauri na ayyukan gwamnati wanda ya dace bisa tushen kare lafiyar jama'a.
Me yasa wani zai so ya wuce gona da iri na sabuwar kwayar cutar COVID-19? Ita ce hanya ɗaya tilo ta amfani da sarrafa cutar ta cuta da hanyoyin gudanarwa wanda Fauci ya fi so. Ya zama dole don saita motsi shirin rigakafin COVID. Mafi yawa dai an yi amfani da dabarunsa wajen haifar da fargaba a cikin jama'a ta yadda za su amince da ayyukan gwamnati da ya ke so.
Ka fahimci wannan. Fauci ba ƙwararren ƙwararren ƙwararren lafiyar jama'a ba ne, kuma ba ƙwararren masaniyar cututtukan cuta ko virologist ba. Shi cikakken likita ne wanda sama da shekaru da yawa a matsayin babban jami'in NIH ya sami iko mai yawa. Bai taɓa yin abin da kwararrun masana kiwon lafiyar jama'a ke da alhakin ɗa'a ba. Wato gaya wa jama'a duka abubuwa masu kyau da marasa kyau na manufofin kiwon lafiyar jama'a da ayyuka.
Maganar ita ce: Ta hanyar tura buƙatar ayyukan annoba don magance ƙwayar cuta mai saurin kisa ɗimbin ayyukan gwamnati sun haifar da matsaloli na tattalin arziki, zamantakewa da na sirri. Kuma yawancin bincike sun kammala cewa yawancin Amurkawa sun mutu daga ayyukan gwamnati fiye da cutar ta COVID. Bugu da ƙari, ayyukan kiwon lafiyar jama'a sun cutar da lafiyar jama'a. Amma tare da tallafin kafofin watsa labarai na yau da kullun Fauci ya yi nasara da komai.
Dubban daruruwan Amurkawa sun mutu ba dole ba. Fauci yana da laifin sakaci da ya samo asali daga farkonsa kuma a zahiri jama'a game da cutar ta COVID.
Tare da ikonsa ya ƙirƙiri manufofin da suka ƙirƙiri bayanai don tallafawa wannan da'awar mutuwa. Babban mataki ɗaya shine ƙirƙirar ƙa'idar gwaji ta amfani da fasahar PCR ta hanyoyin da suka haifar da manyan matakan shari'a. Wanda ya kirkiro wannan fasaha ya ce bai dace ba don gano cutar ta kwayar cutar. Miliyoyin shari'o'in COVID sun samo asali daga gudanar da kayan aikin PCR a cikin ƙimar zagayowar gaske. A halin yanzu gwamnati ba ta taɓa yin gwajin jini ba don samun bayanai don sanin IFR.
Wata babbar hanyar da za a ci gaba da tallafawa jama'a don shawo kan cutar ita ce tabbatar da adadin masu mutuwa na COVID. Anyi hakan ta hanyar umarni kan yadda yakamata a cika takaddun mutuwa da kuma tallafin kuɗi don asibitoci don tabbatar da mutuwar a matsayin COVID.
Haɗin manyan matakan kararraki da mace-mace sun taimaka wajen tallafawa manyan lambobi don CFR, suna taimakawa kiyaye tsoron jama'a na ƙwayar cuta mai saurin kisa.
Don taƙaitawa: Fauci ya mamaye COVID a matsayin cuta mai saurin kisa don tabbatar da mafi girman ayyukan kiwon lafiyar jama'a. Yawancin ingantattun bayanai a yanzu suna nuna mutuwar COVID yayi kama da na mura na yanayi wanda bai motsa ba ko kuma ya ba da hujjar yawan ayyukan gwamnati da aka yi amfani da su don cutar ta karya.
Ee, mutane da yawa sun mutu daga COVID, amma da yawa sun yi imanin cewa an ba da rahoton mutuwar fiye da kima kuma an rarraba su, kuma da yawa ana iya hana su ta hanyar amfani da magunguna na yau da kullun. Kamar yadda mutane da yawa suka nuna, matsakaicin shekarun mafi yawan mutuwar COVID ga tsofaffi waɗanda abin ya shafa sun kasance koyaushe sama da matsakaicin shekarun rayuwa. Babu shakka cewa mutane da yawa suna mutuwa tare da COVID amma ba DAGA COVID ba, kuma suna jayayya don ƙaramin IFR. A wani lokaci CDC ta ce kashi 6% na mace-macen sun samo asali ne daga COVID kawai, wanda hakan ya sa IFR ya ragu.
A ƙarshe, sanin ainihin ƙananan IFR don COVID gabaɗayan dalilin rigakafin yawan alurar riga kafi ya rushe, musamman saboda la'akari da manyan matakan illa da mutuwa daga allurar da kansu. Wani sabon bincike Labari ya yi muhimman abubuwan lura. Babban ɗayan shine ƙasashen da ke da ƙananan matakan rigakafin sun kasance suna yin mafi kyau fiye da waɗanda ke da shirye-shiryen rigakafin jama'a, kamar Amurka. Sakamakon ya yi daidai da fahimtar da aka yarda da ita cewa alluran ba su kawar da kamuwa da cutar ba yadda ya kamata. Ƙarin allurar rigakafin da aka daidaita da ƙarin yaduwar kwayar cuta. Sabon binciken ya ƙare da shawara don koyan "zauna tare da COVID-19 kamar yadda muke ci gaba da rayuwa bayan shekaru 100 tare da sauye-sauye na yanayi daban-daban na kwayar cutar mura ta 1918."
Wanne yana da cikakkiyar ma'ana idan kun yaba cewa COVID IFR yayi kama da mura IFR.
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Dokta Joel S. Hirschhorn, marubucin Cutar Kwayar cuta da labarai da yawa kan cutar, ya yi aiki a kan al'amuran kiwon lafiya shekaru da yawa. A matsayinsa na cikakken farfesa a Jami'ar Wisconsin, Madison, ya jagoranci shirin binciken likita tsakanin kwalejojin injiniya da likitanci. A matsayinsa na babban jami’i a ofishin tantance fasaha na majalisar wakilai da kuma kungiyar gwamnonin kasa, ya jagoranci manyan nazari kan batutuwan da suka shafi kiwon lafiya; ya ba da shaida a zaman majalisar dattijai da majalisar wakilai sama da 50 kuma ya rubuta ɗaruruwan labarai da kasidu a manyan jaridu. Ya yi aikin sa kai na zartarwa a babban asibiti sama da shekaru 10. Shi memba ne na Associationungiyar Likitocin Amurka da Likitoci, da Likitoci na Farko na Amurka.
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