A cikin Janairu 2022, adadin yaran da aka haifa a Jamhuriyar Czech ba zato ba tsammani ya ragu da kusan 10%. A ƙarshen 2022, ya bayyana a fili cewa wannan sigina ce: Duk lambobin jarirai na wata-wata sun yi ƙasa sosai.
A cikin Afrilu 2023, na rubuta a yanki don dandalin bincike na Czech InFakta kuma ya ba da shawarar cewa wannan al'amari na bazata na iya haɗawa da yaƙin neman zaɓen rigakafin da aka fara kusan watanni 9 kafin raguwar haihuwa. Denik N - Czech daidai da New York Times - nan da nan ya fito tare da "m takedown" na labarina, ya sanya ni maƙaryaci kuma ya yi iƙirarin cewa za a iya bayyana tsarin ta hanyar alƙaluma: Mata kaɗan ne a cikin jama'a kuma suna girma.
Don kwatanta haihuwa a fadin kasashe (da lokaci), abin da ake kira Jimlar Yawan Haihuwa (TFR) ana amfani dashi. Kusan a magana, matsakaicin adadin yaran da mace ta haifa a tsawon rayuwarta. TFR ya kasance mai zaman kansa daga adadin mata da tsarin shekarun su. Hoto na 1 da ke ƙasa yana nuna juyin halitta na TFR a cikin ƙasashen Turai da yawa tsakanin 2001 da 2023. Na zaɓi ƙasashen da suka sami raguwa iri ɗaya a cikin TFR a 2022 a matsayin Jamhuriyar Czech.
Hoto 1. Juyin Jumlar Haihuwar Haihuwa a cikin zaɓaɓɓun ƙasashen Turai tsakanin 2000 da 2023. An ƙirƙira bayanan da suka yi daidai da shekara ta musamman a ƙarshen ginshiƙi da ke wakiltar waccan shekarar.
Don haka, ya zuwa ƙarshen 2023, abubuwa biyu masu zuwa sun bayyana sarai:
- Faduwar haihuwa a cikin Jamhuriyar Czech a cikin 2022 ba za a iya bayyana shi ta hanyar abubuwan alƙaluma ba. Jimlar yawan haihuwa - wanda ke zaman kansa daga adadin mata da tsarin shekarun su - ya ragu sosai a cikin 2022 kuma yana raguwa tun daga lokacin. The data 2024 ya nuna cewa TFR Czech ya ragu zuwa 1.37.
- Yawancin sauran ƙasashen Turai sun sami raguwa mai ban mamaki da ba zato ba tsammani na haihuwa wanda ya fara a farkon 2022. Na zaɓi wasu daga cikinsu don hoto na 1 amma akwai ƙarin: Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, da Sweden. A gefe guda kuma, akwai wasu ƙasashe waɗanda ba su nuna raguwar TFR kwatsam ba, amma a maimakon haka, raguwar raguwa a cikin dogon lokaci (misali Belgium, Faransa, Burtaniya, Girka, ko Italiya). Sanannun keɓancewa sune Bulgaria, Spain, da Portugal inda haihuwa ta ƙaru (duk da haka daga ƙananan lambobi). Aikin Haihuwar Dan Adam database yana da duk lambobin.
Wannan tsarin bayanan yana da ban mamaki kuma ba zato ba tsammani cewa ko da manyan kafofin watsa labaru a Turai ba za su iya guje wa matsalar gaba daya ba. Daga lokaci zuwa lokaci, shugabannin magana tare da lakabin ilimi da yawa suna bayyana kuma suna tura ɗayan ingantattun labaran siyasa: Putin ne! (Spoiler faɗakarwa: Yaƙin ya fara a watan Fabrairu 2022; duk da haka, yaran da ba a haife su a 2022 ba a cikin 2021). Shi ne hauhawar farashin da Putin ya haifar! (Yi hakuri, hakan ma daga baya ne). Yana da yawan jama'a! (A'a, duba a sama, TFR ya kasance mai zaman kansa daga ƙididdiga).
Don haka, kalmar “v” tana ci gaba da komawa cikin zukatan mutane kuma Web's Wild West ya cika da hasashe. Mun yanke shawarar kada mu yi hasashe amma don kokawa da wasu ƙarin bayanai daga gwamnatin Czech. Tsawon watanni da yawa, muna ƙoƙarin samun adadin jarirai a kowane wata, lalacewa ta hanyar shekaru da matsayin alurar riga kafi na uwa. Tsarin kula da lafiyar bayan gurguzu na ƙasarmu takobi ne mai kaifi biyu: A hannu guda, jihar tana tattara bayanai da yawa game da 'yan ƙasa fiye da yadda Ba'amurke zai yi imani. A gefe guda, muna da daidai da FOIA, kuma ba ma jin tsoron amfani da shi. Bayan watanni da yawa na wasiƙun da ba su da amfani da hukuma, mun juya zuwa Jitka Chalankova - ɗan Czech Ron Johnson a cikin siket - wanda a ƙarshe ya sami damar samun takaddar bayanai mai mahimmanci.
A iya sanina, takardar bayanan (yanzu ana samunsu tare da fassarar turanci nan) shine kawai bayanan da aka fitar a hukumance wanda ke dauke da rugujewar jarirai ta hanyar rigakafin Covid-19 na uwa. Mun nemi ƙarin cikakkun bayanai, amma wannan shine abin da muka samu. Bayanan sun ƙunshi adadin haihuwa a kowane wata tsakanin Janairu 2021 da Disamba 2023 da aka ba mata (shekaru 18-39) waɗanda aka yi wa allurar, watau, sun karɓi aƙalla allurar rigakafin Covid guda ɗaya a ranar haihuwa, kuma ta matan da ba a yi musu allurar ba, watau, ba su karɓi kowane kashi na kowace allurar Covid ba har zuwa ranar haihuwa.
Bugu da ƙari, adadin haihuwar da mata ke yi a wata ɗaya ko fiye da allurai yayin daukar ciki aka bayar. Wannan ya ba mu damar yin kiyasin adadin matan da aka yi musu allurar kafin daukar ciki. Sa'an nan, mun yi amfani bude bayanai akan tsarin yawan jama'ar Czech ta shekaru, kuma bude bayanai akan allurar Covid ta rana, jima'i, da shekaru.
Haɗa waɗannan bayanan guda uku, mun sami damar ƙididdige ƙididdige ƙididdiga masu nasara (watau tunanin da ya haifar da haihuwa bayan watanni tara) ta hanyar riga-kafin riga-kafi na uwa. Wadanda ke sha'awar cikakkun bayanai na fasaha na hanya na iya karanta Hanyoyi a cikin sabuwar fitowar takarda. Yana da kyau a ambata cewa an yi watsi da takardar ba tare da yin nazari ba a cikin manyan mujallolin kimiyya shida. A cikin hoto na 2, mun sake buga babban binciken binciken mu.
Hoto 2A. Histogram yana nuna adadin mata a Jamhuriyar Czech masu shekaru 18-39 waɗanda aka yi wa allurar aƙalla kashi ɗaya na rigakafin Covid-19 a ƙarshen wata. Hoto na 2B. Ƙididdiga na adadin nasarar da aka samu (SCs) a cikin mata 1,000 masu shekaru 18-39 bisa ga yanayin riga-kafi na Covid. Wuraren masu inuwa mai shuɗi a cikin Hoto na 1B suna nuna tazara tsakanin ƙananan ƙididdiga na sama da na sama na ƙimar SC na gaskiya ga matan da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi (duhu shuɗi) da marasa alurar riga kafi (shuɗi mai haske) kafin ɗaukar ciki.
Hoto na 2 yana bayyana alamu masu ban sha'awa da yawa waɗanda na jera a nan cikin tsari mai mahimmanci:
- Matan da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi sun ɗauki ciki kusan kashi uku kaɗan fiye da yadda ake tsammani daga rabonsu na yawan jama'a. Matan da ba a yi musu alluran rigakafi sun yi ciki daidai da yadda duk mata suka yi ba kafin cutar. Don haka, an kafa ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan matsayin rigakafin Covid da ra'ayi mai nasara.
- A cikin rabin na biyu na 2021, an sami kololuwa a cikin adadin ra'ayoyin waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba (da kuma madaidaicin tudun ruwa a cikin allurar). Wannan yana nuna halin hazaka na matan Czech, waɗanda - akasin shawarar hukuma - mai yiwuwa sun guje wa rigakafi idan suna son yin ciki. Wannan ya mayar da hankali ga masu ciki a cikin rukunin da ba a yi ba kuma ya haifar da kololuwa.
- A cikin rabin farkon shekarar 2021, an sami rashin tabbas sosai a cikin kididdigar ƙimar ƙima. An samar da ƙananan ƙididdiga na ƙima a cikin alurar riga kafi ta hanyar ɗauka cewa duk matan da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi (aƙalla kashi ɗaya) yayin daukar ciki. ba a yi wa rigakafin ba kafin daukar ciki. Wannan kusan hakika gaskiya ne a farkon rabin 2021 saboda ba a samun allurar rigakafi kafin 2021. An samar da ƙimar sama ta hanyar ɗauka cewa duk mata sun yi alurar riga kafi (aƙalla kashi ɗaya) yayin daukar ciki kuma sun sami aƙalla kashi ɗaya kafin daukar ciki. Wataƙila wannan ya kasance kusa da gaskiya a kashi na biyu na 2021. Don haka, muna tunanin cewa ƙimar ra'ayi na gaskiya ga alurar riga kafi fara kusa da ƙananan iyaka a farkon 2021 kuma ya ƙare kusa da babban iyaka a farkon 2022. Har yanzu, muna son zama daidai sosai, amma dole ne mu yi aiki da abin da muka samu.
Yanzu da aka kafa ƙungiyar tsakanin allurar Covid-19 da ƙananan ƙididdiga, tambaya ɗaya mai mahimmanci: Shin wannan ƙungiya ce ta jawo? A takaice dai, da gaske ne alluran rigakafin Covid-19 hana mata daga samun ciki?
Masu kula da labarin na hukuma sun yi watsi da bincikenmu kuma sun ce ana iya bayyana bambancin cikin sauƙi ta hanyar ruɗewa: Wadanda aka yi wa alurar riga kafi sun kasance tsofaffi, sun fi ilimi, mazauna birni, ƙarin sanin canjin yanayi… kuna suna shi. Wannan duka na iya zama gaskiya, amma a farkon 2022, TFR na yawan jama'a ya ragu sosai kuma yana raguwa tun daga lokacin.
Saboda haka, wani abu Dole ne ya faru a cikin bazara na 2021. Idan da yawan mata sun rabu ba da daɗewa ba zuwa rukuni biyu - jajayen wuya waɗanda suke son yara kuma ba sa son jab, da slikers na birni waɗanda ba sa son yara kuma suna son jab - ƙimar haihuwa na waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba tabbas zai fi na waɗanda aka yi wa alurar riga kafi. A wannan yanayin, irin wannan zaɓin zaɓe zai iya bayyana tsarin da aka lura. Duk da haka, da wannan ya kasance gaskiya, jimillar TFR na daukacin jama'a da ya kasance mai dorewa.
Amma ba haka ya faru ba. Don wasu dalilai, TFR na yawan jama'a ya yi tsalle a cikin Janairu 2022 kuma yana raguwa tun daga lokacin. Kuma mun nuna cewa, saboda wasu dalilai, wannan raguwar haihuwa ta shafi wadanda aka yi wa allurar ne kawai. Don haka, idan kana so ka yi jayayya cewa wani abu mai ban mamaki X shine ke da alhakin raguwar haihuwa, dole ne ka bayyana (1) dalilin da ya sa lamarin ya shafi wadanda aka yi wa alurar riga kafi, da (2) dalilin da ya sa ya fara shafar su a kusan lokacin alurar riga kafi. Wannan tsari ne mai tsayi. Mista Occam da ni duka muna tunanin haka X = maganin alurar riga kafi shine mafi saukin bayani.
Abin da ke daure min kai shi ne ci gaba da yanayin. Idan da gaske alluran sun hana daukar ciki, shin bai kamata tasirin ya kasance na wucin gadi ba? Sama da shekaru uku ke nan tun da taron rigakafin jama'a, amma har yanzu yawan haihuwa yana ci gaba da faɗuwa. Idan wannan yanayin ya ci gaba har tsawon shekaru biyar, za mu iya dakatar da jayayya game da fansho, kashe kuɗin tsaro, sake fasalin kiwon lafiya, da ilimi - saboda mun gama.
Muna tsakiyar abin da zai iya zama babbar matsalar haihuwa a tarihin ɗan adam. Ba a san dalilin rushewar haihuwa ba. Gwamnatocin ƙasashen Turai da yawa suna da bayanan da za su buɗe asirin. Duk da haka, da alama ba wanda yake so ya sani.
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Tomas Fürst yana koyar da ilimin lissafi a Jami'ar Palaky, Jamhuriyar Czech. Asalinsa yana cikin tsarin ƙirar lissafi da Kimiyyar Bayanai. Shi ne mai kafa wanda ya kafa kungiyar ta kungiyar ta microbiologist, da stripologists (smis) wanda ya samar da Czechan jama'a tare da bayanan gaskiya da gaskiya game da cutar Coronavirus. Shi ne kuma wanda ya kafa wata mujalla ta "samizdat" dZurnal wacce ke mai da hankali kan fallasa munanan dabi'un kimiyya a Kimiyyar Czech.
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