Ya zuwa Afrilu 2022, adadin mutuwar Covid da aka ruwaito (993,739) ya kai kusan dukkanin ƙididdigar CDC na yawan mace-mace (kimanin 1,080,000). Labarin hukuma zai gaya muku cewa yawancin bambancin ba a rasa mutuwar Covid - mutanen da suka mutu daga Covid amma ba a gano su ba.
Wannan taƙaitaccen bayani ne.
Na farko, mura ta dawo hunturun da ya gabata (Hoto na 1) kuma ba a san rabon ta a yawan mace-mace ba. Dole ne a yanke kwatancen mutuwar Covid tare da yawan mace-mace a cikin Satumba 2021, kafin farkon bullar mura.
Figure 1
Na biyu, ana iya rasa mutuwar Covid da wuri, amma ba wauta ne a ɗauka cewa an ci gaba da kewar su a duk lokacin bala'in. Akasin haka, ka'idodin codeing na sassaucin ra'ayi, abubuwan ƙarfafawa na kuɗi, gwaji mai yawa, da tunanin da ya dace da Covid dole ne ya haifar da yawan mace-mace masu alaƙa da Covid.
Na uku, kulle-kulle, warewar jama'a, fargabar tsoro, da ruguza rayuwar al'ada ya dauki nauyinsu, kuma. Ko shakka babu wadancan kutsawa marasa tushe sun jawo hasarar rayuka (kuma za su kashe) rayuka. Don haka tambayar ba wai ko sun ba da gudummawar yawan mace-mace ba, amma nawa ne? Kashi nawa ne na yawan mace-mace a Amurka ya samo asali ne sakamakon firgici da fargabar hukuma? Yawan mutuwar nawa ne Covid ba a lissafa ba?
Tushen bayanai
An yi amfani da tushen bayanai guda uku don bincika ƙarfin babban sakamako (da kyau), da kuma samun ƙididdiga masu yawa: 1). CDC wuce haddi fayil fayil (ƙididdigar mako-mako), wanda daga ciki kuma yana yiwuwa a ƙididdige mutuwar Covid-mako-mako. 2) Fayil na mutuwar CDC Covid (a tara ta kowace rana), daga inda za a iya ƙididdige mutuwar mako-mako. 3) Duniyar mu a Data (OWID) gidan yanar gizon, wanda daga ciki za a iya ƙididdige mutuwar Covid da kiyasin yawan mace-mace tsakanin ranaku daban-daban.
Kwanakin yanke don zaɓaɓɓun lokuta an tsara su ta ƙarshen mako-mako a cikin fayil ɗin mutuwa na CDC. Akwai kwanakin OWID a cikin kwanaki biyu.
Mutuwar da ba a tantance ba
Hoto 2 yana nuna bayanai daga lokacin watanni 18 - Afrilu 2020 zuwa Satumba 2021 - yana ƙare abubuwan da aka lura kafin dawowar mura. An nuna kididdigar mutuwar Covid daga tushe guda uku, da kiyasin adadin wadanda suka mutu daga biyu. Bambanci tsakanin yawan mace-mace da mutuwar Covid shine yawan mutuwar da ba a lissafta ba.
Figure 2
Adadin mutuwar Covid ya bambanta tsakanin tushe guda uku da maki kaɗan. Ƙididdiga na OWID ya fi ƙasa da tushen CDC, amma ƙididdigarsa na yawan mace-mace ya fi girma. Sakamakon haka, kiyasin OWID na yawan mace-macen da ba a tantance ba ya fi girma.
Rashin jituwa game da mutuwar Covid tsakanin kafofin CDC guda biyu ba a sani ba. Binciken da aka yi na kud da kud ya sami kusan cikakkiyar yarjejeniya kan adadin adadin ta wasu kwanaki (misali, zuwa ranar 31 ga Yuli, 2021), amma babban rashin jituwa a wasu tazara, kamar yadda za a gani nan da nan.
Lura cewa ƙididdigewa a cikin fayil ɗin mutuwar CDC Covid ya fi kusa da OWID (bambanci kusan 8,000) fiye da fayil ɗin mutuwa na CDC (bambancin kusan 23,000). Hakan ya yi daidai a cikin tazara daban-daban.
Gabaɗaya, rabon adadin mace-macen da ba a ƙididdige su ba a cikin tsawon watanni 18 shine 6-9% (CDC) ko 16% (OWID). Wannan taƙaitaccen, duk da haka, yana ɓoye mahimmancin bambancin lokaci.
Sau uku a jere
Binciken kididdigar mako-mako ya nuna lokuta biyu tare da adadi mai yawa na adadin wadanda ba a tantance su ba (Afrilu-Disamba, 2020 da Yuni-Satumba, 2021), wanda ya rabu da watanni biyar (Janairu - Mayu, 2021) wanda a ciki aka lura akasin haka: adadin wadanda suka mutu Covid wuce kiyasin yawan mace-mace. An gani a cikin 20 na makonni 21 na wannan lokacin.
Ana nuna bayanan kowane lokaci guda uku na gaba.
Lokaci na farko
A cikin watanni tara na farko na barkewar cutar, rabon adadin mutuwar da ba a tantance ba ya kai kashi 11% zuwa 27% na yawan mace-mace, ya danganta da tushen bayanai (Table). Ƙididdiga na OWID ya fi ƙididdiga na tushen CDC saboda ƙananan adadin mutuwar Covid da ƙima mafi girma na yawan mace-mace (kamar yadda aka gani a cikin dukan lokaci.) Yi la'akari, kuma, cewa adadin mutuwar a cikin fayil ɗin Covid ya fi kusa da OWID fiye da adadin mutuwar fayil.
Hoto na 3 (Table)
Lokacin wucin gadi
A farkon 2021, an juya tsarin. Adadin wadanda suka mutu Covid wuce kiyasin yawan mace-mace, wanda ke nuna yawan adadin mutuwar Covid (Table). Abin da ake kira mutuwar Covid wanda bai haifar da yawan mace-mace ba Covid ne ya haifar da shi ba. Mutuwa ce "tare da Covid," ko wani lokacin mutuwa "tare da ingantaccen PCR."
Hoto na 4 (Table)
Baya ga kuskuren bayanai, kawai madadin bayani ga kirgawa shine kima da kima na adadin "masu yawan mace-mace" (ta hanyar duka biyu), wanda ke haifar da rashin kima na yawan mutuwar. Babu wani babban canji, duk da haka, a cikin alkaluman CDC na mutuwar mako-mako, wanda a hankali ya ragu daga kusan 61,000 a farkon Janairu zuwa kusan 55,000 a ƙarshen Mayu.
Rarraba mace-mace ga Covid a cikin waccan watanni biyar yana da mahimmanci: kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu zuwa kashi uku na mutuwar Covid da aka ruwaito sun faru ba tare da la'akari da cutar ta Covid ba.
Shaida kai tsaye na rashin rarrabawa yana buƙatar zaɓar babban samfurin takaddun shaida na mutuwa daga lokuta daban-daban, maido da bayanan likitancin da ke da alaƙa, da sake rarraba mutuwar Covid ta ƙungiyar kwararru. Kada ku dogara ga CDC don fara binciken da zai iya rushe labarin hukuma.
Lokacin ƙarshe
Sakamako na lokacin ƙarshe yana da ban mamaki (Hoto 5). Ba wai kawai muna lura da, sake, yawan mace-macen da ba a lissafa ba, amma rabonsu ya fi na farkon cutar. Mutuwar da ba a tantance ba ta kai kashi 26% zuwa 43% na yawan mace-mace a cikin wadannan watanni hudu, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 11% zuwa 27% a cikin watanni tara na farko. Matsakaicin adadin mace-macen da ba a lissafa ba a kowane wata ya ninka (bayanin CDC) ko ya ƙaru da kusan 50% (OWID).
Hoto na 5 (Table)
Menene ya haifar da waɗannan 47,000 zuwa 82,000 da suka wuce kima?
Lokaci na ƙarshe ya ƙunshi ɓangaren haɓakar raƙuman ruwan Delta (har na Yuli). Shin wasu mutuwar Covid na mutanen da aka yi wa allurar ba a danganta su da Covid (saboda an yi alƙawarin yin amfani da kashi 95 cikin ɗari)? Shin wasu daga cikin waɗancan mutuwar sun samo asali ne daga ci gaba da sakamakon firgici da fargaba? Shin wasu daga cikinsu sun yi asarar rigakafin?
Ƙididdiga na yawan mace-mace da ba a lissafa ba (Afrilu 2020 - Satumba 2021)
Teburin farko (Hoto na 2) ya nuna 6-16% yawan mace-mace da ba a lissafa ba a cikin tsawon watanni 18. Wannan lissafin ya ɗauka cewa babu wani mutuwa da aka danganta ga Covid, wanda shirme ne, ba shakka - akan dalilai na ka'idoji da hujjoji na zahiri. Mun kawai ga ƙididdige ƙima a cikin watanni biyar na farkon 2021.
Ƙididdiga masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na rashin rarrabawa a cikin watanni 18 zai ba da damar kawai 10%. Wato, kashi 90% na mutuwar Covid da aka ruwaito mutuwar Covid ce ta gaskiya. Ragowar na cikin rukuni na yawan mace-mace da ba a tantance ba. Ƙididdigar gaskiya na iya zama 15%.
A kan waɗannan zato guda biyu, mutuwar da ba a ƙididdige su ba ta kai kashi 15% zuwa kusan 30% na yawan mace-mace (Hoto na 6). Matsakaicin kiyasin shida shine 21%.
Figure 6
Shin waɗannan mutuwar annoba ce da ba za a iya kaucewa ba?
CDC da sauran jami'ai za su kira wadannan mutuwar "mutuwar annoba ta kai tsaye." Ba su ba. Yawancin waɗannan mutuwar ba za su faru ba idan cutar ta Covid ta kasance sarrafa kamar cutar mura ta baya - ba tare da tsoro ba, ba tare da kullewa ba, ba tare da abin rufe fuska ba, kuma ba tare da rushewar rayuwar yau da kullun ba. Wani dan jarida ya dangana su da "halayen rikicin." Wanene ya halicci waɗannan yanayi?
An warware asirin yawan mace-macen da ba a tantance ba a Amurka, aƙalla a wani ɓangare. Yawancin su ana ƙididdige su ta hanyar ingantattun kutsawa da kuma ƙulle-ƙulle a kan ayyukan ɗan adam na yau da kullun. Akalla mutuwar 115,000 suna cikin wannan rukunin kuma adadin na gaskiya na iya ninka ninki biyu.
-
Dokta Eyal Shahar farfesa ne a fannin kiwon lafiyar jama'a a fannin cututtukan cututtuka da kididdiga. Binciken nasa yana mayar da hankali ne akan ilimin cututtuka da kuma hanyoyin. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, Dr. Shahar ya ba da gudummawa sosai ga hanyoyin bincike, musamman a fannin zane-zane da kuma son zuciya.
Duba dukkan posts
