[Bayanin edita: An sake buga wannan labarin daga Dauda Stockman's ContraCorner, wanda ke ba da irin wannan bincike kowace rana ga masu biyan kuɗi. Pound-da-laba, Stockman's kullum nazari shi ne mafi cikakku, ƙwaƙƙwaran, fahimta, da wadatar bayanai na duk wani abu da ake samu a yau. Shekarun da ya yi na gogewa a cikin harkokin kuɗi da manufofinsa, da ƙa'idarsa da almara na sadaukar da kai don bayyana gaskiyar da ba ta da tushe da kuma nuna iƙirarinsa tare da bayanai, a kullun ana nunawa. Brownstone yana alfahari da cewa Stockman shima yana aiki a matsayin babban malami, kuma cikin alheri ya ba da izinin sake bugawa na lokaci-lokaci anan.]
Wanene ya ce Joe Biden baya hulɗa da babban titin Amurka?
Wani bincike da Jami’ar Pennsylvania ta yi ya gano cewa shirin dakatar da harajin iskar gas da ya yi na tsawon watanni uku zai ceci Amurkawa matsakaicin dala 5 zuwa $14!
Duk da haka, ya kasance m.
"Ga duk 'yan Republican da ke sukar ni kan farashin iskar gas a Amurka, shin yanzu kuna cewa mun yi kuskure don goyon bayan Ukraine da kuma tsayawa kan Putin? Kuna cewa mun gwammace mu sami ƙarancin farashin iskar gas a Amurka fiye da hannun ƙarfe na Putin a Turai? ”
To, eh muna!
Rigimar Putin tana tare da Ukraine ne ba Turai ba, kuma na farko ba aikinmu bane. Tabbas, kalmar "Ukraine" tana nufin yankunan kan iyaka a cikin Rashanci, kuma gwagwarmayar tabbatar da iyakoki da ikon mallaka a can an shafe shekaru 1300.
Don haka Amurkawa da aka daure su da kudi a famfon iskar gas saboda yakin takunkuman Joe Biden da Putin ba shi da wata alaka da tsaron cikin gida da 'yanci.
Kamar yadda Bill King ya mayar da martani daidai wannan AM,
"Tatsuniya ce. Wani wawa ne ya faɗa, cike da sauti da fushi, ba ya nuna komai."
Sa'an nan kuma, rashin jin daɗi kamar yadda rashin bege yake yi. Wani sabon QuinnipiacPoll yana nuna ƙimar Amincewar Biden ya ragu har yanzu:
- Gabaɗaya: Amincewa da 33%, Rashin yarda da 57%;
- Mutanen Hispanic: An amince da kashi 29%, sun ƙi 53%.
Don haka tsammanin ƙarin magudi na aikin kasuwa yana da girma kuma yana tashi. Sabuwar gambit, a fili, shine yuwuwar yin amfani da hukumomi da albarkatu na Asusun Tabbatar da Tattalin Arziki (ESF) don tabbatar da kamfanonin mai akan faɗuwar farashin farashi da kuma samar da ƙarin samarwa.
Haka ne. A makon da ya gabata sun yi barazanar za su yi wa Big Oil mummunan rauni ta hanyar harajin riba bayan watanni 18 na matakan hana burbushin mai ba da tsayawa ba da kuma maganganun maganganu game da Canjin Yanayi.
Yanzu, saboda rashin bege, masu cikin Fadar White House suna magana game da ceton kamfanonin mai. Shin, ba abin mamaki bane, cewa shugabannin masana'antar makamashi sun zama masu sanyi kamar barewa a cikin fitilun mota: Suna tsoron kashe masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na Canjin Yanayi waɗanda suka mamaye Washington da Wall Street, duk da cewa sun yanke CapEx zuwa kashi saboda damuwa mai zurfi game da manufofin Green Energy.
A gaskiya ma, rabon kuɗaɗen aiki zuwa CapEx na manyan kasuwancin Amurka yana kan kowane lokaci, ma'ana cewa amfani da tsabar kuɗin da ake samu don saka hannun jari yana da ƙarancin lokaci.
Wato hauhawar farashin man fetur a sama ba sa haifar da martanin saka hannun jari na yau da kullun. Madadin haka, alamun kasuwa na yau da kullun na saka hannun jari ana lalata su ta hanyar saƙon kasusuwan burbushin burbushin da ke fitowa daga dukkan ɓangarorin Acela Corridor.
Gudun Kuɗi na XOM zuwa CAPEX (TTM) data by YCharts
A kowane hali, tattalin arziƙin Amurka ya gamu da ɓarna da yo-yoing da zai iya tsayawa. Yi la'akari da ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa daga babban kamfanin sanya aiki. Bayan faduwar da kashi 40 cikin 2020 tare da tushen pre-Covid lokacin da cutar sintirin ta rufe tattalin arzikinta a watan Afrilun 60, saitin aiki ya fashe, wanda ya kai +2022% zuwa Janairu XNUMX.
Duk da haka wannan ba alamar tattalin arziki mai ƙarfi ba ne. Shaida ce ta satar ma'aikata da manyan kamfanoni ke yi waɗanda a fili suke tunanin karuwar kashe-kashen da mabukaci ya yi ta hanyar dala tiriliyan 6 na bacin rai zai dawwama har abada. Muna son sanya babban rashin daidaito, saboda haka, da yuwuwar koren layin da ke ƙasa zai doshi kudu da ƙarfi a cikin watanni masu zuwa yayin da Fed's belated tightening campaign tara ƙarfi. A gaskiya ma, fasa cikin kasuwannin ayyuka sun riga sun bayyana. Kamar yadda Wall Street Journal kwanan nan ya bayyana shi:
Kamfanoni gami da Twitter Inc. , Dillalan gidaje Redfin Corp. , da musayar cryptocurrency Kamfanin Coinbase Global Inc. sun soke tayin a cikin 'yan makonnin nan. Masu ɗaukan ma'aikata a wasu aljihu na tattalin arziƙin su ma suna janye tayin, gami da wasu a cikin inshora, tallan tallace-tallace, tuntuɓar da sabis na daukar ma'aikata.
A lokaci guda kuma, kamfanoni da yawa sun ba da alamar tsarin daukar ma'aikata mai hankali. Kamfanin Netflix Inc.. , Peloton Inte Inc. , Carvana Co.. wasu kuma sun sanar da sallamar. Gwanayen fasaha irin su Facebook iyaye Meta Platforms Inc. da Uber Technologies gargadin cewa za su sake buga shirye-shiryen daukar ma'aikata.
Ya ce an soke tayin aiki kusan watanni shida da suka gabata ba a ji ba. "Idan mun koyi wani abu daga cikin shekaru biyun da suka gabata, abin da zai iya canzawa da sauri."
Hakazalika, idan har za a koyi darasi, ya kuma bayyana a fili cewa "Yakin Takunkumin Takunkumi" na Washington ya kasance bala'in tattalin arziki ga jama'ar Amurka. Bayan haka, daya daga cikin manyan dalilan da ya sa farashin mai ya yi tashin gwauron zabo shi ne, Washington ta sanya takunkumin fitar da mai kan uku daga cikin manyan masu hako mai a duniya—Venezuela, Iran da Rasha.
Kafin a tilastawa rage fitar da su zuwa ketare, ukun sun samar da sama da ganga miliyan 18 a kowace rana (mb/d) ko kusan kashi 20% na wadatar duniya. Wannan yanzu ya ragu da kashi 30% zuwa 12.5 mb/d kuma yana barazanar yin kasa a karkashin hare-haren Washington na masu siyan mai daga wadannan manyan masana'antun guda uku, wadanda manufofin kasashen waje ba su karkata zuwa ga umarnin Washington ba.
Amma abin mamaki, hatta waɗancan haramtattun hannaye masu nauyi na fitar da kayayyaki sun ƙaru. Wato kasar Rasha tana sayar da danyen man da take samarwa ga kasashen China da Indiya inda ake tace mata. Ana fitar da wasu daga cikin man fetur da dizal da aka samu zuwa Amurka
Tabbas, hakan yana da kyau ga Indiya da China yayin da suke siyan danyen mai na Rasha a cikin ragi mai zurfi sannan kuma suna sayar da kayan da aka tace akan farashi mai yawa. Don haka shine 'nasara' 'nasara' 'nasara' ga Rasha, Indiya da China tare da wanda ya yi rashin nasara shine 'yamma' kuma musamman ma masu amfani da Amurka.
Idan Yaƙin Takunkumin ya kai girman manufofin makamashi na Washington, tasirin zai yi muni sosai. Amma saboda yaƙin yaƙin neman zaɓe na Green Energy na Biden, ƙarfin aikin tacewa a cikin Amurka ya yi ƙasa da ƙasa kusan shekaru goma a cikin 2022, sabon Rahoton Ƙarfin Ƙarfafawa na EIA ya nuna a ranar Talata.
Ƙarfin tace Amurka ya faɗi a wannan shekara zuwa ganga miliyan 17.94 a kowace rana har zuwa 1 ga Janairu, bisa ga sabon bayanan EIA. Wannan ya ragu daga miliyan 18.09 b/d a ranar 1 ga Janairun bara da kuma miliyan 18.8 b/d a shekarar 2019. A zahiri, karfin tacewa na Amurka yanzu shine mafi karanci da aka samu tun 2014.
Gabaɗaya, Arewacin Amurka ya yi asarar kusan 1.3 miliyan b/d a cikin iya tacewa a cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, gami da fiye da 600,000 b/d a Louisiana. A cikin Louisiana, 255,600 b/d Phillips 66 Alliance Refinery, da 211,146 b/d Shell Convent Refinery da 135,500 b/d Calcasieu Refining complex duk sun rufe tun farkon 2020.
Don haka, ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa fasa ya yaɗu—bambancin farashi tsakanin ɗanyen ganga da ke shigowa matatar man da slate ɗin kayayyakin da ke fita—sun kasance a wani wuri mafi girma na wannan duniya da ya kusan kai. $60 kowace ganga sabanin matakin yau da kullun na $10-$20 kowace ganga.
Ma’ana, ba wai karancin danyen man da ake fama da shi a duniya ba ne, a’a, a’a a matatun man fetur din da ya kai sama da dala 5 galan da dizal sama da dala 6 kan galan.
Tabbas, masu ra'ayin hegemonists a bakin kogin Potomac ba su taba yin hakan ba idan ana maganar kutsawa cikin harkokin cikin gida na kasashe a duk fadin duniya, tare da sanya takunkumi a digon hula.
Don haka duk da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da rashin wadataccen kayayyaki ya haifar a wannan makon Washington ta kaddamar da abin da ya kai adadin takunkumin karya tattalin arziki. A wannan karon kan China saboda zargin da ake yi mata na musgunawa 'yan tsirarun 'yan kabilar Uygur.
Wata sabuwar doka da ake kira Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) za ta fara aiki a wannan makon kuma za ta hana kayayyakin da aka yi a Xinjiang ko wata alaka da shirye-shiryen aiki a can shiga Amurka. Yana buƙatar masu shigo da kayayyaki masu alaƙa da Xinjiang su samar da takaddun da ke nuna cewa samfuran su, da kowane danyen abu an yi su ne da, ba su da aikin tilastawa - wani aiki mai wahala da aka yi la'akari da sarkakiyar sarkar samar da kayayyaki na kasar Sin.
A bisa ka'ida, sabuwar dokar Amurka za ta toshe duk wani kayan da kasar Sin ke samarwa da duk wani danyen kaya da ke da alaka da jihar Xinjiang har sai an tabbatar da cewa ba su da bautar ko aikin tilastawa.
Kamar yadda ya faru, duk da haka, ana samar da kayayyaki da yawa kamar lithium da nickel a cikin Xinjiang kuma suna kwarara cikin samfuran ƙasa da yawa. Alal misali, Xinjiang Nonferrous da rassansa sun yi hadin gwiwa da hukumomin kasar Sin don daukar daruruwan ma'aikatan Uygur a cikin 'yan shekarun nan.
Daga karshe dai an tura wadannan ma’aikatan zuwa aiki a ma’adinan kungiyar, da masana’anta da ke samar da wasu ma’adanai da ake nema a doron kasa, wadanda suka hada da lithium, nickel, manganese, beryllium, jan karfe da zinare. Duk da yake yana da wuya a iya gano ainihin inda karafa da Xinjiang Nonferrous ke zuwa, wasu an fitar da su zuwa Amurka, Jamus, Birtaniya, Japan, Koriya ta Kudu da Indiya, bisa ga bayanan kamfanin da bayanan kwastam.
Wasu kuma sun je wurin manyan masu kera batir na kasar Sin, wadanda su kuma kai tsaye ko a kaikaice, ke samar da manyan kamfanonin Amurka, da suka hada da kera motoci, kamfanonin makamashi da kuma sojojin Amurka, a cewar rahotannin kasar Sin.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, waɗannan sabbin takunkumin na iya wuce gona da iri. Misali, Washington ta fitar da sabbin ka'idoji a wannan makon da ya gabata wadanda tabbas za su toshe masana'antar hasken rana da ya kamata su maye gurbin gurbataccen mai. Wannan saboda jagororin sun haɗa da sashe akan shigo da polysilicon.
Domin bin UFLPA, kamfanonin hasken rana dole ne:
- Samar da cikakkun takaddun sarkar kayayyaki waɗanda ke jera duk abubuwan da ke da hannu a cikin abin da aka fitar zuwa waje.
- Samar da taswirar taswirar kwarara kowane mataki na samarwa kuma gano yankin da kowane abu ya samo asali.
- Samar da jerin abubuwan da ke da alaƙa da kowane mataki na samarwa, koda kuwa kamfanin fitar da kayayyaki bai yi aiki tare da su kai tsaye ba.
Ka'idojin sun kuma bayyana cewa, kamfanonin da ke samar da polysilicon daga cikin jihar Xinjiang da kuma wajen yankin suna fuskantar hadarin da za a iya tsare su, saboda yana iya zama da wahala a iya tabbatar da cewa kayayyakin ba su yi cudanya da polysilicon na Xinjiang ba a kowane lokaci a harkar kera.
Don haka ƙarin yo-yoing na kayayyaki da farashin kayayyakin China tabbas suna faɗuwa a kan pike. A halin yanzu, haɓakar dillalan Amurka ba zato ba tsammani ya yi sanyi sosai.
Don haka, a cewar Bloomberg, zirga-zirgar ƙafar tallace-tallace ta ragu da kashi 4.9% a cikin makon da ya gabata, wanda ke nuna raguwar mako-mako na biyar kai tsaye. A cikin tallace-tallace gabaɗaya, zirga-zirgar kantin kayan haɓaka gida ya ragu da kashi 16.6% kuma manyan kantuna, shagunan sashe da zirga-zirgar tufafi sun faɗi da kashi 12.7%.
Daga cikin sarƙoƙi guda ɗaya, Best Buy ya sami raguwar kashi 58.2% yayin da Asirin Victoria ya sami raguwar 47.4%. Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan ba al'ada ba ne, ƙananan sauye-sauyen kasuwanci - suna cikin ɓangaren da gwamnati ta haifar da bulala wanda ke yin ta'adi ta tattalin arzikin Amurka.
Hakazalika, hawan rashin jin daɗi a cikin ƙimar gida na Amurka ya ci gaba a cikin watan Mayu, lokacin da farashin tsaka-tsaki ya tashi da kashi 15% zuwa rikodin dala 407,600, yayin da ainihin adadin tallace-tallace ya faɗi saboda matsin lamba daga hauhawar farashin jinginar gida da haɓaka.
A zahiri, idan aka kwatanta da kasuwar gidaje masu zafi da aka jawo a cikin 2021 ta hanyar Fed matsananciyar matsananciyar riba da kuma fitar da kudi, adadin tallace-tallacen gidaje ya riga ya ragu da kusan. 20% kuma yana da hanya mai nisa tukuna-ko da yadda farashin gidaje a ƙarshe ke juyewa a ƙarƙashin matsin lamba.
A ƙarshe, a fili babu abin da ke tserewa ƙarar da farashin yo-yo. Hatta aski yanzu ya haura da kashi 6.6 bisa na shekarar da ta gabata, yayin da hidimomin sirri da ke da alaƙa gabaɗaya yanzu suna haɓaka riba 7.0%.
A wani lokaci an yi wasa game da "Ni daga Washington nake kuma ina nan don taimaka muku".
Hakan ya zama gaskiya kuma ba wasa ba ne.
Canjin Y/Y A Cikin Sabis na Keɓaɓɓen CPI, 1994-2022
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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