A binciken mai taken "Tasirin duniya na shekarar farko na rigakafin COVID-19: nazarin ƙirar ƙira” ya bayyana a cikin Lancet Cututtuka masu Yaduwa journal, on 23 Yuni 2022. An kammala cewa kusan mutane miliyan 14-20 ne aka ceto ta hanyar bullar cutar Covid-19. Nan da nan wannan binciken ya sami yaɗuwar labarai a duniya: misali The Hindu (Indiya), Mint (Indiya), The Guardian (Ingila), CBS Detroit (Amurka), da sauransu. Don haka yana da kyau a duba ingancin fasaha na binciken.
Zato mara kyau a cikin nazarin tasirin samfurin jab: Dole ne binciken ƙirar ƙirar ya haɗa mahimman sigogi daban-daban. Duban kurkusa yana nuna cewa yawancin ma'auni masu mahimmanci sun dogara ne akan zato waɗanda suke da aka sani a cikin wallafe-wallafen don zama kuskure. Teburin da ke ƙasa ya taƙaita wannan.
| Aspect | Zato a cikin nazarin ƙirar ƙira | Critique, Binciken Gaskiya na zato |
| Kariya bayan kamuwa da cuta | "Rashin rigakafin kamuwa da cuta.. ya biyo bayan rarraba Erlang tare da wani matsakaicin tsawon shekara guda” (duba nazari kari). | Kariya bayan kamuwa da cuta shine mai ƙarfi kuma mai dorewa; kariya daga kamuwa da cuta yana da yawa tsawon fiye ga jabbed; kariya daga cututtuka mai tsanani yana yiwuwa tsawon rayuwa. |
| Kaucewa rigakafi zuwa sabbin bambance-bambancen bayan fallasa ga bambance-bambancen farko | "Kaucewa rigakafi don rigakafin kamuwa da cuta yana faruwa ga kashi 27% na mutanen da suka kamu da cutar a baya." | A binciken da da aka ambata don wannan adadin 27% ana fassara shi ba daidai ba. A cikin binciken ƙungiyar, 27% na mahalarta sun nuna raguwa a cikin ƙwayoyin rigakafi tare da karuwa. Maimakon ma'anar cewa waɗannan mutane sun sake kamuwa da cutar, yana nufin cewa an sake bayyanar da waɗannan mutane da nasu tsarin rigakafi yayi aiki daidai yadda ya kamata. |
| Tasirin rigakafin rigakafin kamuwa da cuta tare da bambance-bambancen Delta |
Adenoviruses: 67%, mRNA: 88%(duba Table 1 na kari) | inganci wasu a cikin watanni 6: Adenovirus: 44%, mRNA: 63%Ba a ƙirƙira irin wannan tasiri mai raguwa ba. |
| Tasirin allurar rigakafin mutuwa | Adenoviruses: 92%, mRNA: 93%(duba Table 1 na kari) | Dole ne a yi la'akari da tasiri a kan mace-mace duk-dalili mace-mace; a preprint binciken yana nuna mafi girman kai 73% ga adenovirus jabs, da kuma a korau inganci na -3% ga mRNA jabs; don haka lambobin da aka tsara suna da kyakkyawan fata kuma ba daidai ba; kariya daga asibiti sannan kuma an san mace-macen tana raguwa kuma wannan ba a kwatanta shi ba. |
| Tasirin allurar rigakafin cututtuka | "Muna tsammanin cewa duk mutanen da aka yi wa allurar suna da a 50% ragewa a cikin cututtuka don ci gaba da kamuwa da cuta." | A binciken da da aka ambata don wannan raguwar kashi 50% a sarari yana faɗi cewa inganci akan watsawa ya kusa sifili bayan makonni 12 na jab; sauran karatu sun kuma nuna cewa tasiri a kan watsawa gaba ya kusa kusa; don haka lambar da aka tsara tayi kuskure. |
Dukkan zato na kuskuren da ke sama suna cikin hanyar haɓaka tasirin yuwuwar jabs, yayin da a lokaci guda rage tasirin rigakafi bayan kamuwa da cuta ta halitta. Don haka akwai yuwuwar binciken ƙirar ƙirar ya ƙididdige rayukan da aka ceta ta hanyar shirin Covid-19. Baya ga sigogin da ke sama, akwai kuma wani aibi na fasaha, kamar yadda aka bayyana a ƙasa.
Babban gazawar samfurin watsa Covid-19 da aka yi amfani da shi: Gabaɗaya, a tsakanin nazarin kimiyya, ƙirar lissafi yana ɗaukar nauyi mai ƙarancin nauyi fiye da nazarin duniya na gaske, tunda ƙirar dole ne ya yi zato mai sauƙi.
Musamman, ƙirar Covid-19 ya gaza sosai. More musamman, watsawa model don Covid-19 da aka gabatar a ƙarshen Maris 2020, daga Kwalejin Imperial (Birtaniya) an kashe shi da kashi 10-40, kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin tebur da ke ƙasa (tushen bayanai: yanar, faɗakarwa).
| Kasa | Hasashen | Bayanan duniyar gaske | Factor na kuskuren ƙididdiga ta samfurin |
| Sweden | 80,000 sun mutu ba tare da raguwa ba | ~6,000 sun mutu a tashin farko ba tare da kullewa ba | 13 sau |
| India | Mutuwar miliyan 4.0 tare da "yawan jama'a masu nisantar da jama'a" mutuwar miliyan 5.9 ba tare da raguwa ba | Mutuwar 150,000 a cikin 2020 tare da tsawan watanni 3 na kullewa, watanni 6 na matakan shakatawa daban-daban | 26-39 sau |
Yana da mahimmanci a lura cewa binciken ƙirar tasirin jab na yanzu ya yi amfani da irin wannan samfurin watsa shirye-shiryen Covid-19, wanda aka san ya gaza da babban abu. Tun da tsarin watsawa na farko ya yi kima sosai game da yaduwar Covid-19 da mace-mace, ya zama dalilin cewa samfurin tasirin jab na yanzu ta amfani da tsarin watsawa ya yi kiyasin adadin rayukan da aka ceta ta hanyar jab.
Rikicin kuɗi na sha'awa: Ba tare da lahani na fasaha na sama ba, akwai wani muhimmin al'amari anan. The Lancet Buga ya ambaci a sarari cewa hanyoyin samar da kudade don wannan aikin sun haɗa da WHO, Gavi, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, waɗanda dukkansu suna da rikicin kuɗi na sha'awa a manyan jabs. Duk da haka, yawancin gidajen labarai sun bar wannan mahimman bayanai. Wannan bai dace ba kuma ba a yarda da shi a aikin jarida na gaskiya.
Summary: A ƙarshe, yana yiwuwa jabs ɗin sun ceci wasu rayuka, amma binciken ƙirar ƙila ya wuce gona da iri iri ɗaya. Bugu da ari, cewa (a) masana kimiyya sun yi amfani da binciken ƙirar ƙira tare da lahani masu yawa, kuma (b) gidajen labarai dole ne su yi amfani da rashin daidaituwa na irin wannan ba tare da ambaton rikice-rikice na kudi na sha'awa ba, ba ya magana da kyau game da yiwuwar yin tasiri mai yawa ga rayukan da aka ceto. Shaidar kimiyya don tabbatar da jab a matsayin ceton rai ya kamata koyaushe ya zama ƙwaƙƙwaran gwajin sarrafa bazuwar.
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Bhaskaran Raman malami ne a Sashen Kimiyyar Kwamfuta da Injiniya a IIT Bombay. Ra'ayoyin da aka bayyana a nan ra'ayinsa ne na kansa. Yana kula da rukunin yanar gizon: "Fahimtar, Unclog, Rashin tsoro, Rashin tsoro, Buɗe (U5) Indiya" https://tinyurl.com/u5india. Ana iya samun sa ta twitter, telegram: @br_cse_iitb. br@cse.iitb.ac.in
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