Sabbin takaddun takarda da ke nuna cewa adadin masu mutuwa kafin allurar riga-kafin ya yi ƙasa sosai a cikin waɗanda ba tsofaffi ba.
Binciken Muhalli, Juzu'i na 216, Sashe na 3, 1 Janairu 2023, 114655
Abstract
Mafi girman nauyin COVID-19 tsofaffi ne ke ɗaukar su, kuma mutanen da ke zaune a gidajen kulawa suna da rauni musamman. Duk da haka, kashi 94% na al'ummar duniya ba su wuce shekaru 70 ba kuma 86% na kasa da shekaru 60. Makasudin wannan binciken shine a kimanta daidai adadin masu kamuwa da cuta (IFR) na COVID-19 a tsakanin mutanen da ba tsofaffi ba a cikin rashin allurar rigakafi ko kamuwa da cuta ta farko. A cikin bincike na tsare-tsare a cikin SeroTracker da PubMed (ka'idar: https://osf.io/xvupr), mun gano 40 masu cancantar nazarin cutar sankara na ƙasa wanda ke rufe ƙasashe 38 tare da bayanan rigakafin cutar riga-kafi. Don kasashe 29 (masu samun kudin shiga 24, wasu 5), bayanan mutuwar COVID-19 na jama'a da aka ba da izinin jama'a da kuma bayanan da ba a iya gani ba sun kasance kuma an haɗa su cikin bincike na farko. IFRs suna da tsaka-tsakin 0.034% (IQR) 0.013-0.056%) don yawan shekarun 0-59, da 0.095% (IQR 0.036-0.119%) na 0-69 shekaru. Matsakaicin IFR shine 0.0003% a shekaru 0-19, 0.002% a shekaru 20-29, 0.011% a shekaru 30-39, 0.035% a shekaru 40-49, 0.123% a shekaru 50-59, da 0.506-60% a shekaru 69 IFR yana ƙaruwa kusan sau 4 a kowace shekara 10. Ciki har da bayanai daga wasu ƙasashe 9 waɗanda aka ƙididdige shekarun mutuwar COVID-19 sun haifar da matsakaicin IFR na 0.025-0.032% na shekaru 0-59 da 0.063-0.082% na shekaru 0-69. Binciken meta-regression kuma ya ba da shawarar IFR na duniya na 0.03% da 0.07%, bi da bi a cikin waɗannan rukunin shekaru.
Binciken na yanzu yana nuna ƙarancin allurar riga-kafin IFR a cikin mutanen da ba tsofaffi fiye da yadda aka ba da shawara a baya.
Babban bambance-bambance ya kasance tsakanin ƙasashe kuma yana iya nuna bambance-bambance a cikin cututtukan cututtuka da sauran dalilai. Waɗannan ƙididdiga sun ba da tushe daga abin da za a iya fahimtar ƙarin raguwar IFR tare da yaɗuwar amfani da allurar rigakafi, cututtukan da suka rigaya, da juyin halitta na sabbin bambance-bambancen.
Daga bayanan da ke sama, yawan mace-macen kamuwa da cuta na Median (IFR) a lokacin PRE-VACINATION ERA shine:
- 0.0003% a 0-19 shekaru
- 0.002% a 20-29 shekaru
- 0.011% a 30-39 shekaru
- 0.035% a 40-49 shekaru
- 0.123% a 50-59 shekaru
- 0.506% a 60-69 shekaru
- 0.034% ga mutanen da ke tsakanin shekaru 0-59
- .095% na masu shekaru 0-69.
Waɗannan ƙididdigewa na IFR a cikin yawan mutanen da ba tsofaffi sun yi ƙasa da ƙididdiga da ƙididdiga na baya da aka ba da shawarar ba.
Akwai wanda ya tuna baya zuwa farkon 2020? Mummunan hasashen bala'i na duniya - na adadin mace-mace da kuma yawan kamuwa da cuta (R0) waɗanda ba a taɓa jin su ba a zamanin yau don cututtukan numfashi? Hasashen sun kasance cewa "novel coronavirus," kamar yadda ake kira shi a lokacin, zai zama mura na Spain na gaba. Cewa kawai mafita ita ce dukkan al'ummomi su kulle. Wannan shi ne tsarin da ya sa gwamnatocin duniya suka firgita. Wannan shi ne tsarin ƙira wanda ya sa kafofin watsa labaru na gado suka narke.
Wani masanin kimiyya wanda a fili ya jagoranci wannan ƙoƙarin kuma ya jagoranci duniya ta ɓace tare da mummunan hasashensa, shine Neil Ferguson, PhD na Kwalejin Imperial.
Tawagar Ferguson a Imperial College London suna da ya yi ikirarin ceto miliyoyin rayuka ta hanyar manufofin kulle-kulle da suka aiwatar da samfuransa. Samfuran Kwalejin Imperial ne suka yi hasashen mutuwar miliyoyin a cikin shekarar farko a Burtaniya, idan ba a aiwatar da tsauraran matakai ba. Da zarar an aiwatar da su, Ferguson da kwalejin Imperial da sauri sun karɓi yabo don "nasara" na kulle-kulle.
Kiyasin rayuka miliyan 3.1 da Dr. Ferguson ya ceta ya samo asali ne daga tsattsauran ra'ayi “ motsa jiki mara kimiya mai ban dariya, inda suka yi ikirarin tabbatar da tsarin su ta hanyar amfani da nasu hasashen hasashen a matsayin sabani na abin da zai faru ba tare da kulle-kulle ba." Sauran samfura da bayanan duniya sun ɓata samfuran Ferguson, amma an yi lalacewar Lockdowns, keɓewa, rufe fuska, samfuran EU waɗanda ba a gwada su ba - kamar maganin rigakafi sun yi mana illa a ƙarshe, menene, idan ɗayansu ya zama dole?
Elon Musk ya kira Ferguson "utter kayan aiki" wanda ke yin "kimiyyar karya mara hankali.” Jay Schnitzer, kwararre a fannin ilimin halittar jini kuma tsohon darektan kimiyya na Cibiyar Ciwon daji ta Sidney Kimmel a San Diego, ya gaya mani: “Ba na son in faɗi wannan game da masanin kimiyya, amma yana rawa a gefen zama charlatan mai neman talla."(National Review).
Sau da yawa, shekara da shekara, shekaru goma bayan shekaru goma, NHS da gwamnatocin duniya, ciki har da namu, sun juya ga Dr. Ferguson don yin samfurin cututtuka. Ferguson ya ba su abin da suke so. Wani dalili na ma'aikata, jihar gudanarwa don sake haɓakawa kuma ya zama mahimmanci. Ɗaya daga cikin ƙirarsa-da-duniya na iya ƙara kasafin shirye-shiryen bala'i na tarayya zuwa ma'aunin ilmin taurari. Wannan shine danyen iko ga karamin jami'in kula da lafiyar jama'a. Me ba za a so ba?
Sai dai guda ɗaya:
Ma'anar aikin Ferguson ya kasance a sarari: samfurin farko da aka yi amfani da shi don tabbatar da kulle-kulle ya kasa gwajin farko na duniya.
Hasashen Ferguson na yawan mace-macen da aka yi a sama ya wuce gona da iri.
Kulle-kullen sun kasance cikakke kuma gaba ɗaya gazawa.
Amma wannan ba shine farkon rashin nasarar da Ferguson ya yi keɓancewar ƙirar cututtukan da ke tuntuɓe a matakin duniya ba. Misalai biyu ne na hasashen da ya yi a baya:
- Ferguson ya yi hasashen cewa za a iya kashe mutane miliyan 150 daga cutar murar tsuntsaye a lokacin barkewar shekarar 2005. Wannan hasashen ya ƙare da adadi mai ban mamaki, tare da adadin mutane 282 da ke mutuwa a duk duniya daga cutar tsakanin 2003 da 2009.
- A shekarar 2009, daya daga cikin samfurin Ferguson An yi hasashen mutane 65,000 za su iya mutuwa daga barkewar cutar murar alade a Burtaniya - adadi na karshe bai kai 500 ba. Wannan ƙirar ita ce abin da ya sa jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a da yawa suka firgita, kuma ya haifar da firgita a duniya na jami'ai da jama'a.
Don haka, me yasa Boris Johnson da gwamnatinmu suka koma ga samfuransa don jagora tun farkon rikicin COVID? Me yasa suka yarda da ikirarin Ferguson na cewa kulle-kulle za su yi aiki, ba tare da wata hujja ko jagororin manufofin jama'a da ke nuna cewa irin wadannan tsauraran matakan za su yi tasiri ba?
Shin sun kasance masu butulci ne kawai?
Anan ya kara hauka. Akwai wadanda ke jayayya cewa yin tallan kayan kawa da Ferguson ya yi a farkon 2020 hujja ce cewa 1) "Hanyoyin da ba na magunguna ba (makulli da abin rufe fuska) sun yi aiki saboda (hankali a nan) hasashen ƙirar sa bai zama gaskiya ba. da 2) cewa alluran sun yi aiki fiye da kowane ma'auni saboda kuma, hasashen ƙirar sa bai cika ba.
Duk da haka, ga mu nan. Sabuwar takarda mai mahimmanci (wanda aka tattauna a sama) yana ba da bayanin cewa yawan mace-macen alurar riga kafi ya yi ƙasa sosai a cikin waɗanda ba tsofaffi ba. Wannan yana nufin ƙarin shaida cewa samfuran Ferguson sun kasance ba daidai ba (kuma) kuma me muke ji daga kafofin watsa labaru na gwamnati?
Kiriket.
Wani abokin aikina wanda ke majalisar dattijan Amurka ya ba ni rahoto kwanan nan cewa Sanatocin Republican sun nuna matukar farin cikin juna game da nasarar Warp-speed bisa bayanan ƙirar Ferguson a cikin takarda kwanan nan.
Ba za ku iya yin wannan kayan ba.
An sake bugawa daga marubucin Mayarwa.
-
Robert W. Malone likita ne kuma masanin ilimin halittu. Ayyukansa sun mayar da hankali kan fasahar mRNA, magunguna, da bincike na sake fasalin ƙwayoyi.
Duba dukkan posts
