A shekara ta 2007, jimlar ƙimar wani nau'i na inshorar kuɗi mai suna Credit Default Swap (CDS) ya kai dala tiriliyan 67. Wannan adadin ya zarce GDP na duniya a wannan shekarar da kusan kashi goma sha biyar. A wasu kalmomi - wani a cikin kasuwannin kudi ya yi fare fiye da darajar duk abin da aka samar a duniya a wannan shekara.
Menene mutanen da ke kan Wall Street suke yin fare? Idan wasu kwalaye na pyrotechnics na kuɗi da ake kira Lamuni Masu Bashi (Colateralized Debt Obligations).CDOss) za su fashe. Yin fare adadin da ya fi girma fiye da duniya yana buƙatar ƙwaƙƙwaran tabbaci daga ɓangaren mai ba da inshora.
Menene wannan tabbacin ya goyi bayan?
Tsarin sihiri mai suna Gaussian Copula Model. Akwatunan CDO sun ƙunshi jinginar miliyoyin Amurkawa, kuma ƙirar mai suna mai ban dariya ta ƙiyasta yuwuwar haɗin gwiwa cewa masu riƙe kowane jinginar gidaje guda biyu da aka zaɓa ba zato ba tsammani duka biyun za su gaza kan jinginar.
Babban abin da ke cikin wannan dabarar sihiri ita ce ma'aunin gamma, wanda ya yi amfani da bayanan tarihi don ƙididdige alaƙa tsakanin ƙimar jinginar gida a sassa daban-daban na Amurka. Wannan alaƙar ta kasance ƙanƙanta sosai ga yawancin ƙarni na 20 saboda akwai ƙaramin dalilin da ya sa ya kamata a haɗa jinginar gidaje a Florida ta wata hanya zuwa jinginar gidaje a California ko Washington.
Amma a lokacin rani na 2006, farashin gidaje a duk faɗin Amurka ya fara faɗuwa, kuma miliyoyin mutane sun sami kansu suna bin bashin gidajensu fiye da yadda suke a halin yanzu. A cikin wannan yanayin, yawancin Amurkawa sun yanke shawarar rashin biyan bashin jinginar su. Don haka, adadin jinginar gidaje ya ƙaru sosai, a lokaci ɗaya, a duk faɗin ƙasar.
Ƙididdigar gamma a cikin tsarin sihiri ya yi tsalle daga ƙima mara kyau zuwa ɗaya kuma kwalayen CDOs sun fashe gaba ɗaya. Masu kudi - wadanda suka ci amanar GDP na duniya gaba daya kan hakan bai faru ba - duk sun yi asara.
Wannan fare gaba ɗaya, wanda wasu ƴan hasashe suka yi hasarar duniyar gabaɗaya, ya dogara ne akan tsarin lissafi wanda masu amfani da shi suka yi kuskuren gaske. Asarar kudi da suka yi ba a biya su ba, don haka zabin da ya dace shi ne jihar ta biya su. Tabbas, jihohin ba su da wani ƙarin GDP na duniya ko dai, don haka sun yi abin da suka saba yi - sun ƙara waɗannan basusukan da ba za a iya biya ba a cikin jerin basusukan da ba za a iya biya ba da suka yi a baya. Dabarar guda ɗaya, wacce ke da haruffa 40 da kyar a cikin lambar ASCII, ta ƙaru sosai da jimillar bashin duniyar “ci gaba” da dubun ɗari na GDP. Wataƙila ita ce dabara mafi tsada a tarihin ɗan adam.
Bayan wannan fiasco, mutum zai ɗauka cewa mutane za su fara mai da hankali sosai ga tsinkayar nau'ikan lissafi daban-daban. A gaskiya ma, akasin haka ya faru. A cikin kaka na 2019, wata kwayar cuta ta fara yaduwa daga Wuhan, China, wacce ake kira SARS-CoV-2 bayan 'yan uwanta. 'Yan uwansa sun kasance masu banƙyama, don haka a farkon 2020, duk duniya ta shiga cikin yanayin tsoro.
Idan adadin masu kamuwa da cutar na sabuwar kwayar cutar ya yi kama da 'yan'uwanta mazan, wayewa na iya rugujewa da gaske. Kuma daidai a wannan lokacin, da yawa shakku na ilimi haruffa sun bayyana a duniya tare da tsarin lissafin dabbobin su kuma suka fara yada tsinkayar daji cikin sararin samaniya.
’Yan jarida sun bi diddigin hasashe, ba tare da bata lokaci ba suka zabo mafi kyawu, suka fara karanta su cikin babbar murya ga ‘yan siyasar da suka rude. A cikin "yaki da kwayar cutar," duk wani tattaunawa mai mahimmanci game da yanayin ƙirar lissafin lissafi, zatonsu, tabbatarwa, haɗarin wuce gona da iri, musamman ƙididdigar rashin tabbas gaba ɗaya ya ɓace.
Yawancin nau'ikan ilimin lissafi waɗanda suka fito daga ilimin kimiyya sun kasance nau'ikan nau'ikan wasan butulci da ake kira da yawa ko žasa. SIRRI. Waɗannan haruffa guda uku suna tsaye don Mai Rarraba-Cutar-An dawo da su kuma sun zo ne daga farkon ƙarni na 20, lokacin da, godiya ga rashin kwamfutoci, kawai mafi sauƙin daidaitattun daidaito za a iya warware su. Samfuran SIR suna ɗaukar mutane a matsayin ƙwallo masu launi waɗanda ke shawagi a cikin akwati da aka haɗa da kyau kuma suna cin karo da juna.
Lokacin da ja (cutar) da korayen (mai saurin kamuwa) kwallaye suka yi karo, ana samar da ja biyu. Kowane ja (wanda ya kamu da cutar) ya koma baki (murmurewa) bayan wani lokaci kuma ya daina lura da sauran. Kuma shi ke nan. Samfurin ba ya ma ɗaukar sarari ta kowace hanya - babu birane ko ƙauyuka. Wannan samfurin gabaɗayan butulci koyaushe yana haifar da (aƙalla) kalaman yaɗuwa guda ɗaya, wanda ke raguwa akan lokaci kuma yana ɓacewa har abada.
Kuma a daidai wannan lokacin, shugabannin martanin coronavirus sun yi kuskure iri ɗaya da na bankunan shekaru goma sha biyar da suka gabata: Sun yi kuskuren ƙirar gaskiya. "Masana" suna kallon samfurin wanda ya nuna nau'in cututtuka guda ɗaya, amma a hakikanin gaskiya, wata igiyar ruwa ta bi wani. Maimakon zana madaidaicin ƙarshe daga wannan bambance-bambance tsakanin samfuri da gaskiya - cewa waɗannan samfuran ba su da amfani - sun fara tunanin cewa gaskiyar ta ɓace daga samfuran saboda "sakamakon ayyukan" wanda suke "sarrafa" annoba. An yi magana game da “natsuwa da wuri” na matakan da sauran galibin ra’ayoyin tauhidi. Tabbas, akwai ƴan damammaki da yawa a cikin ilimin kimiyya waɗanda suka yi gaggawar zuwa ƙirƙira labarai game da tasirin sa baki.
A halin yanzu, kwayar cutar ta yi abinta, ta yin watsi da tsarin lissafi. Mutane kaɗan ne suka lura, amma a duk lokacin annobar, babu wani samfurin lissafi ɗaya da ya yi nasarar yin hasashen (aƙalla kusan) kololuwar igiyar ruwa na yanzu ko farkon guguwar na gaba.
Ba kamar Gaussian Copula Models ba, wanda - ban da samun suna mai ban dariya - yayi aiki aƙalla lokacin da farashin gidaje ke tashi, samfuran SIR ba su da alaƙa da gaskiya tun farkon. Daga baya, wasu mawallafansu sun fara sake fasalin ƙirar don dacewa da bayanan tarihi, don haka gaba ɗaya ya rikitar da jama'ar da ba su da ilimin lissafi, wanda yawanci ba ya bambanta tsakanin ƙirar da aka fi dacewa da tsohon post (inda ainihin bayanan tarihi suka dace da kyau ta hanyar daidaita sigogin ƙirar) da kuma ainihin hasashen tsohon ante na gaba. Kamar yadda Yogi Berra zai samu: Yana da wuya a yi tsinkaya, musamman game da nan gaba.
Yayin da ake fama da rikicin kuɗi, yin amfani da tsarin lissafi ba daidai ba ya haifar da lalacewar tattalin arziƙi, yayin bala'in ba kawai game da kuɗi ba ne. Dangane da sifofi marasa ma'ana, an ɗauki kowane nau'in "matakan" waɗanda suka lalata tunanin mutane da yawa ko lafiyar jiki.
Duk da haka, wannan hasarar shari'a ta duniya tana da tasiri mai kyau guda ɗaya: Sanin yuwuwar cutarwar ƙirar ƙira ta yaɗu daga wasu ofisoshin ilimi zuwa ga jama'a. Yayin da 'yan shekarun da suka gabata aka lullube manufar "samfurin lissafi" a cikin girmamawar addini, bayan shekaru uku na annobar, amincewar jama'a ga ikon "ƙwararrun" don hango ko wane abu ya tafi sifili.
Bugu da ƙari, ba samfuran kawai suka gaza ba - wani babban ɓangaren al'ummar ilimi da kimiyya ma ya gaza. Maimakon inganta hanyar taka tsantsan da shakku bisa hujja, sun zama masu fara'a ga wauta da yawa da masu tsara manufofin suka fito da su. Rashin amincewar jama'a game da Kimiyya na zamani, likitanci, da wakilansa tabbas zai zama mafi girman sakamakon cutar.
Wanda ya kawo mu ga wasu nau'ikan lissafi, wanda sakamakonsa zai iya zama mafi lalacewa fiye da duk abin da muka bayyana ya zuwa yanzu. Waɗannan su ne, ba shakka, samfuran yanayi. Tattaunawar "canjin yanayi na duniya" za a iya raba kashi uku.
1. Haƙiƙanin juyin halitta na zafin jiki a duniyarmu. A cikin ƴan shekarun da suka gabata, muna da ingantattun ma'aunai masu ma'ana da daidaito daga wurare da yawa a duniya. Idan muka ci gaba a baya, dole ne mu dogara da hanyoyin sake gina yanayin zafi daban-daban, kuma rashin tabbas yana girma. Ana iya samun shakku dangane da hakan abin da yanayin zafi shine ainihin batun tattaunawa: Yanayin zafi yana canzawa koyaushe a sarari da lokaci, kuma yana da matukar mahimmanci yadda ake haɗa ma'aunin mutum zuwa wasu ƙimar "duniya". Ganin cewa "zazzabi na duniya" - duk da haka an ayyana shi - shine bayyanar wani tsari mai rikitarwa wanda ya yi nisa da ma'aunin ma'aunin zafi da sanyio, ba zai yuwu ba ya dawwama. Don haka, akwai yuwuwar biyu kawai: A kowane lokaci tun da aka samu duniyar duniyar, “zazzabi na duniya” yana tashi ko faɗuwa. An yarda gaba ɗaya cewa an sami ɗumamar gabaɗaya a cikin ƙarni na 20, kodayake bambance-bambancen yanki sun fi girma fiye da yadda aka saba yarda da su. Tattaunawa dalla-dalla kan wannan batu ba batun wannan maƙala ba ne, domin ba shi da alaƙa kai tsaye da ƙirar lissafi.
2. Hasashen da ke karuwa a cikin CO2 maida hankali yana haifar da karuwa a yanayin zafi na duniya. Wannan shi ne halalcin hasashen kimiyya; duk da haka, shaida don hasashe ya ƙunshi ƙarin ƙirar ƙira fiye da yadda kuke zato. Saboda haka, za mu magance wannan batu dalla-dalla a ƙasa.
3. Ma'anar "matakan" daban-daban da 'yan siyasa da masu fafutuka suka ba da shawara don hana sauyin yanayi na duniya ko a kalla rage tasirinsa. Bugu da ƙari, wannan batu ba shine abin da wannan maƙalar ke mayar da hankali ba, amma yana da mahimmanci a lura cewa yawancin abubuwan da aka gabatar (kuma wasu lokuta an riga an aiwatar da su) canjin yanayi "matakan" za su sami umarni na girman sakamako mafi girma fiye da duk abin da muka yi a lokacin cutar ta Covid. Don haka, tare da wannan a zuciya, bari mu ga yawan ƙirar ƙira da muke buƙata don tallafawa hasashe 2.
A kallo na farko, babu buƙatar samfura saboda tsarin da CO2 ke yin zafi a duniya an fahimci shi sosai tun daga Joseph Fourier, wanda ya fara bayyana shi. A cikin litattafan makarantar firamare, muna zana hoto na greenhouse tare da rana tana murmushi a kai. Radiyoyin gajeriyar igiyar ruwa daga rana suna wucewa ta cikin gilashin, suna dumama ciki na greenhouse, amma radiation mai tsawo (wanda ke fitowa daga ciki mai zafi na cikin greenhouse) ba zai iya tserewa ta cikin gilashin ba, don haka yana kiyaye greenhouse dumi. Carbon dioxide, ƙaunatattun yara, suna taka rawa iri ɗaya a cikin yanayin mu kamar gilashin da ke cikin greenhouse.
Wannan "bayani," bayan haka ana kiran sunan duk tasirin greenhouse, kuma wanda muke kira "sakamako na greenhouse don kindergarten," yana fama da ƙananan matsala: Ba daidai ba ne. Gidan greenhouse yana da dumi don wani dalili na daban. Gilashin harsashi yana hana convection - iska mai dumi ba zai iya tashi da ɗaukar zafi ba. An riga an tabbatar da wannan gaskiyar ta gwaji a farkon karni na 20 ta hanyar gina gine-gine iri ɗaya amma daga wani abu mai haske zuwa infrared radiation. Bambance-bambancen yanayin zafi a cikin gidajen gine-ginen biyu ya kasance maras kyau.
Ok, greenhouses ba su da dumi saboda tasirin greenhouse (don gamsar da masu binciken gaskiya daban-daban, wannan gaskiyar na iya zama samu a Wikipedia). Amma wannan ba yana nufin cewa carbon dioxide ba ya sha infrared radiation kuma baya nuna hali a cikin yanayi kamar yadda muka yi tunanin gilashin a cikin greenhouse hali. Carbon dioxide a zahiri yana sha radiation a cikin madaukai masu tsayi da yawa. Turin ruwa, methane, da sauran iskar gas suma suna da wannan dukiya. Tasirin greenhouse (wanda aka sanya masa suna bayan greenhouse) tabbataccen tabbataccen gwaji ne, kuma idan ba tare da iskar gas ba, Duniya zata yi sanyi sosai.
Ya biyo baya a hankali cewa lokacin da yawan CO2 a cikin sararin samaniya ya karu, kwayoyin CO2 za su yi kama da infrared photons, wanda saboda haka ba za su iya tserewa zuwa sararin samaniya ba, kuma zafin duniya zai kara karuwa. Yawancin mutane sun gamsu da wannan bayanin kuma suna ci gaba da yin la'akari da hasashe daga aya ta 2 a sama kamar yadda aka tabbatar. Muna kiran wannan sigar labarin da "sakamakon greenhouse ga ikon ilimin falsafa."
Matsalar ita ce, ba shakka, akwai da yawa carbon dioxide (da sauran gurɓataccen iska) a cikin sararin samaniya cewa babu wani photon tare da mitar da ya dace da ke da damar tserewa daga sararin samaniya ba tare da an shafe shi ba kuma ya sake fitar da shi sau da yawa ta hanyar wasu kwayoyin iskar gas.
Wani karuwa a cikin shayarwar infrared radiation wanda aka haifar ta hanyar babban taro na CO2 zai iya faruwa ne kawai a gefuna na maɗaurin sha. Tare da wannan ilimin - wanda, ba shakka, ba ya yadu sosai tsakanin 'yan siyasa da 'yan jarida - yanzu ba a bayyana dalilin da yasa karuwar yawan CO2 ya kamata ya haifar da hawan zafi ba.
A zahiri, duk da haka, lamarin ya fi rikitarwa, don haka ya zama dole a fito da wani nau'in bayanin, wanda muke kira "sakamako na greenhouse ga ikon ilimin kimiyya." Wannan sigar ta manya tana karantawa kamar haka: Tsarin sha da sake fitar da photons yana faruwa a cikin dukkan nau'ikan yanayi, kuma atom ɗin iskar gas na "wuce" photon daga juna zuwa wani har zuwa ƙarshe ɗayan photon ɗin da ke fitowa a wani wuri a saman saman sararin samaniya ya tashi zuwa sararin samaniya. Matsakaicin iskar gas a zahiri yana raguwa tare da haɓaka tsayi. Don haka, lokacin da muka ƙara CO2 kaɗan, tsayin da photons zai iya tserewa zuwa sararin samaniya yana ɗan ƙara girma. Kuma tunda girman da muka hau, yana da sanyi, photons da ke fitowa suna haifar da ƙarancin kuzari, wanda ke haifar da ƙarin kuzarin da ya rage a sararin samaniya, yana sa duniya ta yi zafi.
Lura cewa sigar asali tare da murmushin rana sama da greenhouse ya ɗan fi rikitarwa. Wasu mutane sun fara tabe kawunansu a wannan lokacin kuma suna mamakin ko bayanin da ke sama ya fito fili haka. Lokacin da maida hankali na CO2 ya karu, watakila "mai sanyaya" photons tserewa zuwa sararin samaniya (saboda wurin fitar da su yana motsawa mafi girma), amma ba za su iya tserewa ba (saboda radius yana karuwa)? Shin, bai kamata a sami ƙarin ɗumamar yanayi ba? Shin juyowar yanayin zafi ba ta da mahimmanci a cikin wannan bayanin? Mun san cewa yanayin zafi yana sake tashi daga kimanin kilomita 12 zuwa sama. Shin yana yiwuwa da gaske a yi watsi da duk convection da hazo a cikin wannan bayanin? Mun san cewa waɗannan hanyoyin suna canja zafi mai yawa. Abin da game da tabbatacce kuma korau feedbacks? Da sauransu da sauransu.
Da zarar ka yi tambaya, haka nan za ka ga cewa ba a iya ganin amsoshin kai tsaye amma sun dogara da tsarin lissafi. Samfuran sun ƙunshi adadin gwaji (wato tare da wasu kurakurai) ma'aunin ma'auni; alal misali, bakan na ɗaukar haske a cikin CO2 (da duk sauran iskar gas), dogararsa ga maida hankali, ko cikakken bayanin yanayin yanayin yanayi.
Wannan ya kai mu ga magana mai tsattsauran ra'ayi: Hasashen cewa karuwar yawan carbon dioxide a cikin sararin samaniya yana haifar da karuwar zafin duniya ba shi da goyan bayan kowane yanayi mai sauƙi da fahimtar fahimtar jiki wanda zai bayyana ga mutumin da ke da ilimin jami'a na yau da kullum a fannin fasaha ko kimiyyar halitta. Wannan hasashe yana samun goyan baya daga ƙarshe ta hanyar ƙirar lissafi wanda fiye ko žasa yana ɗaukar wasu matakai masu rikitarwa a cikin yanayi.
Duk da haka, wannan yana ba da haske daban-daban akan dukan matsalar. A cikin mahallin ban mamaki gazawar ƙirar ƙira a cikin kwanan nan, "tasirin greenhouse" ya cancanci kulawa sosai. Mun ji iƙirarin cewa "kimiyya ta daidaita" sau da yawa yayin rikicin Covid kuma yawancin tsinkaya waɗanda daga baya suka zama wauta sun dogara ne akan "ijma'i na kimiyya."
Kusan duk wani muhimmin binciken kimiyya ya fara ne a matsayin murya daya tilo da ta sabawa ijma'in kimiyya na wancan lokacin. Ijma'i a cikin kimiyya ba ya nufin da yawa - kimiyya an gina ta ne bisa tsantsar karyar hasashe ta yin amfani da gwaje-gwajen da aka gudanar da kyau da kuma tantance bayanan da ya dace. Adadin abubuwan da suka gabata na ijma'in kimiyya daidai yake da adadin kurakuran kimiyya da suka gabata.
Mathematical modeling bawa ne nagari amma mugun ubangida. Hasashen canjin yanayi na duniya wanda ya haifar da karuwar taro na CO2 a cikin yanayi yana da ban sha'awa kuma mai yiwuwa. Duk da haka, ba shakka ba hujja ba ce ta gwaji, kuma bai dace ba a cece-kuce a buɗe muhawarar sana'a ta gaskiya kan wannan batu. Idan ya zama cewa ƙirar lissafi sun kasance - sake - kuskure, yana iya yin latti don gyara barnar da aka yi da sunan "yaƙin" sauyin yanayi.
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Tomas Fürst yana koyar da ilimin lissafi a Jami'ar Palaky, Jamhuriyar Czech. Asalinsa yana cikin tsarin ƙirar lissafi da Kimiyyar Bayanai. Shi ne mai kafa wanda ya kafa kungiyar ta kungiyar ta microbiologist, da stripologists (smis) wanda ya samar da Czechan jama'a tare da bayanan gaskiya da gaskiya game da cutar Coronavirus. Shi ne kuma wanda ya kafa wata mujalla ta "samizdat" dZurnal wacce ke mai da hankali kan fallasa munanan dabi'un kimiyya a Kimiyyar Czech.
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