Nawa ne Denmark za ta iya koya mana a yau game da yanayin bala'in cutar da tasirin sa hannun ɗan adam?
Da yawa. Amma bari mu fara a farkon.
Tun da dadewa, lokacin da duniya ta gamsu cewa taurin kai, wacce ba a buɗe ba Sweden tana yin gwajin Covid mai kisa, na bincika kididdigar mace-mace a cikin ƙasashen Nordic. Bincikena na farko (Yuni 2020, da aka buga a cikin Ibrananci) an yi masa taken "Kullewa da Mutuwar Covid: karyatawa daga Sweden." A wancan lokacin mace-macen Covid a Sweden ya kusan sau biyar fiye da na Denmark.
A cikin bincike na na biyu na batun (Janairu 2021, a kan Twitter), Na kwatanta mura, Covid, da duk- sanadin mace-mace a Denmark da Sweden. Sama da shekaru uku a jere "mura" (Oktoba zuwa Satumba), Sweden ta yi kyau fiye da Denmark game da mace-macen mura (kafin cutar), mafi muni akan mace-macen Covid (lokacin da mura ba ya nan), kuma mafi kyau ko kama da Denmark akan yawan mace-mace. Binciken na ya dogara ne akan bayanai har zuwa Satumba 2020.
Yanzu muna da hangen nesa da yawa akan Sweden (wasu wurare da ƙasa) da Denmark (a ƙasa).
Don dalilan da ba a sani ba, na farko manyan Ba a daidaita guguwar cutar ta duniya ba. Denmark, kamar sauran ƙasashe da yawa, sun ɗanɗana ƙaramin guguwa ne kawai a cikin bazara na 2020, wanda aka danganta da matakan kulle-kulle. Lokaci ya tabbatar da cewa bai wuce jinkirin da aka tsara yanayi ba - har zuwa lokacin hunturu na 2020-2021.
Source: https://www.statbank.dk/20017
Menene yawan mace-mace a Denmark yayin bala'in?
Don amsa tambayar da farko muna buƙatar zaɓar a hankali adadin mace-mace na asali - ƙimar da ake tsammani idan babu annoba. Mabuɗin lambar ke nan.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin jadawali da ke ƙasa, duk-mutuwar mace-mace a Denmark gabaɗaya ta ƙi tsakanin 2007 da 2014. A cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa, har zuwa shekarar mura ta farko (2018-19), ƙimar ta kasance barga sai dai ga 2017-18, sanannen banda saboda lokacin mura mai tsanani. Na yi amfani da matsakaicin adadin mace-mace a cikin waɗancan shekaru huɗun, daidaitattun shekarun da suka dace a matsayin ƙimar tushe (layin kwance) don wuce gona da iri (%).
Fuskantar ƙaramin guguwar Covid kawai a cikin bazara na 2020, Denmark ta tsira daga yawan mace-mace a farkon cutar (mura) shekara: Oktoba 2019-Satumba 2020.
Sweden, da bambanci, an buge da wuri, wanda ya kawo karshen cutar ta farko (mura) shekara tare da yawan mace-mace na kashi 4, wani ɓangare na wanda ya "daidaita" mace-mace gaira na kashi 3.5 cikin dari a shekarar da ta gabata kafin barkewar cutar. Adadin gaskiya na Covid a Sweden a cikin shekarar farko ta annoba ta kasance mai yiwuwa kashi 1-2 cikin ɗari da yawa na mace-mace - ba kashi 100 ba, an annabta ta samfuran rashin hankali waɗanda ke rufe yawancin duniya.
A cikin lokacin hunturu na 2020-2021, watanni da yawa bayan nasarar da aka samu na ragewa, Denmark ta shiga cikin babbar guguwar Covid ta farko. Adadin wadanda suka mutu na Covid a Denmark a cikin shekara ta biyu na annoba (Oktoba 2020-Satumba 2021) ya wuce kashi 3.7 cikin dari na mace-mace, kwatankwacin Sweden a shekarar da ta gabata (kashi 4).
Abin da ya biyo baya a Denmark ba wani abin ban mamaki ba ne. A lokacin da aka yi la'akari da cutar bayan annoba a ƙasashe da yawa, yawan mace-mace a Denmark ya ƙaru sosai. Ba haka ba ne a Sweden.
Teburin ya nuna kwatancen kowace shekara (Oktoba zuwa Satumba) na yawan mace-mace a cikin kasashen biyu.
Na farko, ba mu da wata shaida cewa abin da ake kira ƙoƙarce-ƙoƙarce na da wata fa'ida a Denmark. Idan aka yi la'akari da bala'in "rashin mace-mace" na Sweden kafin barkewar cutar, Denmark ba ta sami ma'ana mai ma'ana ba - idan kwata-kwata - sama da shekaru biyu na cutar.
Na biyu, al'amura sun tsananta a Denmark a cikin shekarar mura da ta gabata. Yawan mace-mace ba zato ba tsammani ya tashi zuwa kashi 9.7 yayin da (cikin ƙanƙanta) ya ƙi a Sweden. A cikin ƙasar da ke da mutuwar sama da 50,000 a kowace shekara, yawan mace-macen kashi 10 cikin ɗari ya yi daidai da mutuwar kusan 5,000 sama da “na al’ada.”
Wadanne abubuwa ne a Denmark, tsakanin Oktoba 2021 da Satumba 2022, zasu iya taka rawa?
Akwai aƙalla guda uku: Covid, mura, da alluran rigakafi, da farko na Covid, waɗanda suke sosai m, ko ba. Za mu koma kan batu na ƙarshe nan ba da jimawa ba.
Hotunan biyun da ke ƙasa suna iyakance ga shekarar mura da ta gabata. Ba tare da la'akari da rashin rarraba mace-mace ga Covid ba, muna lura da tsawaita igiyar mace-mace tsakanin watanni 6-7, da wani ƙarami da gajeriyar kalaman.
Haɗe da aiki a ƙasa, muna ganin guguwar mura ta yanayi, tsawon watanni 2, wani ɓangare na mamaye manyan yawan mace-macen Covid. (Ya kamata a sauya mace-macen mura zuwa dama.) Wannan shine farkon bayyanar mura ta farko a Denmark tun farkon barkewar cutar.
Bayanan wata-wata kan mace-mace duk sun yi daidai da waɗannan jadawali (jajayen rectangles). Ga kowane wata, na nuna madaidaicin kalaman, idan akwai.
Kwatanta wata-wata-wata na shekarar mura da ta gabata da kowace shekara tsakanin 2014 da 2019 ya bayyana aƙalla mutuwar mutane 200 a kowane wata (kuma galibi da yawa) a cikin sama da kashi 90 na kwatancen.
Teburi na asali tare da ƙari na
I a baya ya yi iƙirarin cewa ya kamata a dakatar da ƙididdige yawan mace-macen Covid bayan dawowar mura saboda ba za mu iya ƙididdige rabon na ƙarshe ba. Zan yi keɓantaccen ƙima a nan kuma in gwada tabbatar da shi.
Guguwar mura a Denmark gajeru ce kuma tana iya yin asarar rayuka cikin watanni biyu zuwa uku kawai. Ba zai iya ƙididdige yawancin yawan mace-macen kashi 10 cikin ɗari a cikin shekarar mura da ta gabata ba. Wasu mutuwar da suka wuce gona da iri na iya kasancewa sakamakon allurar rigakafin Covid da wasu dalilai kamar sakamakon lalacewar rayuwa. Koyaya, mafi yawan yawan mace-mace a Denmark dole ne su kasance mutuwar Covid, wanda ya dace da babban, tsawan lokaci na Covid (watanni 6-7) da wani ƙaramin igiyar ruwa (watanni 2).
Wanda ya kawo mu ga mahimmin batu: rigakafi.
A farkon shekarar mura da ta gabata, sama da kashi 70 na al'ummar Denmark an yi musu cikakkiyar allurar rigakafin cutar ta Covid, kuma a tsakiyar watan Fabrairun 2022, kashi 60 na al'ummar kasar sun sami karin kashi. Ya kamata adadin ya zama mafi girma a cikin tsofaffi, ƙungiyoyi masu rauni.
Hoton asali, tare da ƙari na (layukan da ba su da kyau, rubutu)
Idan alluran rigakafin sun yi tasiri sosai kan mutuwa, me yasa yawan mace-mace a Denmark ya fi na shekarar mura da ta gabata? Me ya sa ya fi girma fiye da yawan mace-mace a Sweden a cikin farko shekarar annoba - ba tare da alluran rigakafi ba - lokacin da kwayar cutar ta fi kamuwa da cutar omicron? Ba kamar Sweden ba, babu "rashin mace-mace" don lissafin.
Ko menene ainihin rabon mutuwar Covid, ba zai yuwu a daidaita maganin rigakafi mai inganci tare da yawan mace-mace a Denmark a cikin shekarar mura da ta gabata. Shin akwai wani masanin annoba a duniyar da zai yi iƙirarin cewa, ba tare da allurar rigakafi ba, yawan mace-mace a Denmark zai kasance sama da kashi 10? Sau biyar sama da sama, idan alluran sun yi tasiri sosai? Ko ma sau biyu ne babba?
Darasi na biyu daga Denmark: alluran rigakafi masu tasiri sosai - ba su kasance ba. Shin ma sun kasance da ɗan tasiri fiye da kunkuntar, maras amfani, taga lokaci?
Da alama ya kamata kasashe su sha akalla biyu manyan raƙuman mace-mace kafin a kai ga matakin endemic - ba tare da la'akari da yanayin da ake ciki ba. Wadanda suka fara a makare, kamar Denmark, Finland da Norway, za su ƙare a makare. Denmark ta koya mana cewa matsakaicin alluran rigakafi ba za su iya canza yanayin yanayin cutar ba.
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Dokta Eyal Shahar farfesa ne a fannin kiwon lafiyar jama'a a fannin cututtukan cututtuka da kididdiga. Binciken nasa yana mayar da hankali ne akan ilimin cututtuka da kuma hanyoyin. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, Dr. Shahar ya ba da gudummawa sosai ga hanyoyin bincike, musamman a fannin zane-zane da kuma son zuciya.
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