Matakan cutar ta Covid-19 sun kasance a milestone a yadda al'ummomin Yammacin duniya na zamani suka tauye 'yanci ta fuskar wani sabon cuta. Daidai ne a faɗi haka muka firgita a cikin waɗancan watannin bazara na 2020. Tun daga wannan lokacin, zazzafan zance, fushin jama'a, rasa abokantaka, da fadace-fadacen ɗabi'a sun kasance. raba al'ummomi kasa tsakiya.
A wancan lokacin ’yan siyasa, wani bangare na rashin ilimin cututtuka yin tallan kayan kawa, ya zaɓi tsarin tsare-tsaren da muka saba amfani da su don kiran "kulle." Yawancin lokaci sun haɗa da matakai daban-daban na ba da umarnin rufe wuraren taruwar jama'a, a kori ƴan makaranta gida daga makaranta, cewa masu ɗaukan ma'aikata su bar wurarensu ta yadda ma'aikata ba za su yi mu'amala ta jiki ba, ko kuma tsauraran dokokin gwamnati waɗanda ba za ku bar gidan ku ba.
Shekaru biyu cikin wannan gwaji, lokaci ya yi da za a haɗa shaidun. Shin kulle-kulle sun yi rayuwa daidai da karfinsu? Shin sun “ceci rayuka” da “dakatar da yaɗuwar” da duk sauran taken da muka ji cikin raɗaɗi da kawuna suna tofa albarkacin bakinsu?
Mutane da yawa sun yi kokari. Akwai yawan karatu wanda ke nuna babu tasirin rage ƙwayar cuta na kulle-kulle (amma yawan lahani na biyu). Abin da ke tattare da haɗa irin waɗannan jerin abubuwan karatu shine cewa an haɗa su na musamman, zabar sakamakon maimakon binciken da kansa. Haɗa ƙarin irin waɗannan binciken masu yuwuwar ceri a saman juna, ba haka bane gaske inganta da'awar kimiyya cewa kulle-kulle ba ya hana mutuwa. Yana da tarin tabbataccen shaida ga wani hasashe maimakon yin cikakken bincike kan yadda cikakken kewayon karatu ke aunawa.
Don auna fage mai girma da yaɗuwa, masana kimiyya suna amfani da meta-nazari - nau'in nazarin hanyoyin da ke bincikar bincike cikin tsari tare da haɗa sakamakonsu a cikin gaba ɗaya. Jonas Herby na Cibiyar Nazarin Siyasa a Copenhagen, Denmark, Lars Jonung na Jami'ar Lund, da Steve Hanke na Johns Hopkins sun yi daidai da cewa tun farkon lokacin kafin Yuli 1st, 2020. In 'Bita na Adabi da Meta-Bincike na Tasirin Makulli akan Mutuwar Covid-19', kawai an buga shi azaman takarda mai aiki tare da Johns Hopkins' Karatu a cikin Ilimin Tattalin Arziki jerin, suna tattara bayanan da ke nuna cewa kulle-kulle ya hana mace-mace daga Covid-19.
Tun da akwai fa'ida da yawa don yin nazari tare da nazarin da ke samar da meta-bincike, ga cikakken dabarun zaɓin da marubutan suka yi amfani da su:
- Sun gudanar da bincike sama da 18,000, yawancinsu ba su da alaƙa da ƙuƙƙarfan tambayar ingancin kullewa.
- Nazarin 1,048 ya rage, inda aka keɓe yawancin saboda rashin amsa ainihin tambayoyin cancanta guda biyu:
- Shin binciken yana auna tasirin kulle-kulle akan mace-mace?
- Shin binciken yana amfani da tsarin bambance-bambancen ra'ayi?
- Daga cikin binciken 117 da suka rage, marubutan sun ware 83 waɗanda aka kwafi, yin amfani da ƙirar ƙira, ko sarrafawar roba. Nazarin karya-tsari bai isa ba, marubutan suna jayayya, "kamar yadda tasirin kulle-kulle a cikin waɗannan karatun na iya ƙunsar sauye-sauye masu dogaro da lokaci, kamar yanayin yanayi."
Nazarin 34 don haka sun sanya shi cikin binciken su, kuma sun kasu kashi uku: tasirin mace-mace da ke da alaƙa da tsattsauran manufofin Covid (bayan abin da aka fi sani da shi). Oxford metric); Karatu-in- Wuri; da kuma nazarin da suka yi niyya ta musamman ba tare da magunguna ba.
Karatu kamar Flaxman et al. a cikin mujallar kimiyya Nature, waɗanda ke da'awar miliyoyin rayuka da aka ceto ta hanyar matakan kulle-kulle, ba a keɓance su ba saboda ƙaƙƙarfan ƙirar binciken su:
"Maganar daya tilo don sakamako mai ma'ana shine cewa kulle-kulle shine kawai abin da ke da mahimmanci, koda kuwa wasu dalilai kamar yanayi, hali da sauransu sun haifar da canjin gani a cikin adadin haifuwa.
Flaxman et al. misalta yadda matsala ke damun tilasta bayanai don dacewa da wani samfurin idan kuna son haifar da tasirin kulle-kulle akan mace-macen COVID-19."
Ba za ku iya ɗaukan ƙarshen abin da kuke son tabbatarwa ba.
Hakazalika, suna biye Christian Bjørnskov na Jami'ar Aarhus a ban da binciken sarrafa roba. Bjørnskov ya nuna cewa, a yawancin irin waɗannan binciken, halayen ƙasar da suka ƙirƙira ba su yi kama da ƙasashen duniya na zahiri da suka kwaikwayi ba, don haka suna nuna shakku sosai kan lambobi masu ƙarfi da aka samu daga irin waɗannan atisayen.
Binciko ta cikin taƙaitaccen sakamako na karatun ƙarshe na 34 shine babban karatu ga masu bi a cikin kulle-kulle (marubuta sun buga tebur tare da taƙaitaccen bayanin duka). ƴan nuna matakan da suka dace gaskiya tare da mutuwar Covid. Daga cikin waɗanda ke samun sakamako mai mahimmanci na alamar daidai (tare da kulle-kulle da ke da mummunan tasiri akan mace-mace) tasirin yana da ƙanƙanta sosai: galibi adadin lambobi guda ɗaya, tare da binciken bincike da yawa yana ba da rahoton kusan sifili.
Haɗin ƙididdiga a cikin binciken tsattsauran ra'ayi (wanda aka hana mutuwa a matsayin adadin adadin mutuwar Covid) rukunin kusan sifili, tare da bincike ɗaya kawai (Fuller et al. 2021) gano babban tasirin kulle-kulle akan mace-macen Covid-19. Lokacin daidaita ƙididdigar haɗin gwiwa don ƙimar wannan binciken sosai, Herby, Jonung da Hanke sun gano cewa madaidaicin matsakaicin matsakaicin nauyin kulle-kulle akan mace-macen Covid-19 shine -0.2%:
"dangane da nazarin ƙididdigar ƙididdiga, ba mu sami kadan zuwa ga wata shaida cewa tilasta kulle-kulle a Turai da Amurka suna da tasiri mai tasiri kan yawan mace-macen COVID-19."
Madaidaicin kimantawa kuma mafi tsabta da cikakken binciken, kusancin sifili shine tasirin kulle-kulle akan Covid-19. Karanta wannan kuma. Lokacin da muka gudanar da lambobin a hankali, duk wani tasirin kariya na farko daga kulle-kulle akan mutuwar Covid ya tafi.
Karatun Tsari-in- Wuri bai yi kyau sosai ba. Yayin da adadi na layin ƙasa ya ɗan fi kyau (-2.9%), kuma, yawancin binciken yana nuna tasirin da ke tattare da sifili (ko ƙananan ƙimar lambobi guda ɗaya):
Ba mu sami wata bayyananniyar shaida da ke nuna cewa SIPOs sun yi tasiri mai tasiri akan mace-macen COVID-19 ba. Wasu nazarin sun sami babban alaƙa mara kyau tsakanin kulle-kulle da mace-macen COVID-19, amma wannan da alama gajeriyar jerin bayanai ne ya haifar da hakan wanda baya rufe cikakken 'kalaman' COVID-19. Yawancin karatu sun sami kyakkyawar dangantaka tsakanin kulle-kulle da mace-macen COVID-19. Ko da yake wannan yana nuna rashin fahimta, yana iya zama sakamakon (asymptomatic) wanda ya kamu da cutar da aka ware a gida a ƙarƙashin SIPO zai iya cutar da 'yan uwa tare da nauyin ƙwayar cuta mafi girma wanda ya haifar da rashin lafiya mai tsanani.
A ƙarshe, a cikin ɓangaren NPI za mu iya gano ɓangarorin tabbatar da hujjar kullewa. Saitin karatun ya ɗan warwatse yayin da suke tantance saɓani daban-daban (makarantu, rufe iyakokin, taro, abin rufe fuska da sauransu) don haka yana da wahala a kwatanta su. Har yanzu, Herby, Jonung, da Hanke sun rubuta:
"Babu wata shaida da ke nuna kyakkyawar alaƙa tsakanin NPI da aka fi amfani da su da kuma COVID-19. Gabaɗaya, kulle-kulle da iyakance taro da alama suna ƙara yawan mace-macen COVID-19, kodayake tasirin yana da matsakaici (0.6% da 1.6%, bi da bi) kuma rufe iyakokin ba shi da wani tasiri a kan mace-macen COVID-19"
Babban tasirin da ke fitowa daga wannan meta-bincike shine tasirin rufe kasuwancin da ba su da mahimmanci, musamman sanduna, wanda ke da alaƙa da ƙarancin mutuwar 10.6% na covid.
Marubutan suna da matukar tsanani a ƙarshen ƙarshe. Lockdowns ba su rage ma'anar mace-mace na Covid-19 ba: "tasirin ba kadan ba ne."
Mafi kyawun shari'ar da za mu iya yi don kulle-kulle shi ne ƙaramin tasirin da za su iya yi na hana mutuwa na ɗan lokaci, ba su cancanci wahala ba, zafi, tashin hankalin al'umma, wahala da wahalar ɗan adam da ke tare da su.
Shin kowa ne alhaki taba za a yarda da cewa kuskuren manufofin?
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Littafin Joakim marubuci ne kuma mai bincike tare da zurfin sha'awar kuɗi da tarihin kuɗi. Ya yi digiri a fannin tattalin arziki da tarihin kudi daga Jami'ar Glasgow da Jami'ar Oxford
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