Na yi nazari sosai kan abin da ya faru a farkon cutar da yadda ta faru, da kuma abin da za mu iya yi don dakatar da sake faruwa.
Akwai muhimman tambayoyi guda biyu da suke buƙatar amsa. Mutum ya shafi asalin kwayar cutar da kanta - shin injiniyoyi ne ko na halitta, yaushe ne ta fito ko ta zubo kuma a ina, kuma menene ya bayyana canjin halinta a lokuta da wurare daban-daban? Na biyu ya shafi tushen martaninmu: daga ina kulle-kulle, nisantar da jama'a, abin rufe fuska da sauran abubuwan da ba na magunguna ba (NPIs) suka fito, kuma me ya sa kowa ya yi amfani da su duk da cewa ba a taɓa amfani da su ba kuma babu wata shaida irin waɗannan matakan masu tsada za su cimma wani abu mai mahimmanci?
Ga abin da nake tsammanin ya faru a halin yanzu - wannan labarin a takaice ne da gangan, don zama taƙaice. Bi hanyoyin haɗin don karanta ƙarin dalla-dalla akan kowane bangare.
An fara kullewa da tsarin NPI a cikin Bush White House a cikin 2005 - kodayake a baya China ta yi amfani da kulle-kulle / NPIs a cikin martani ga SARS a 2003 kuma ya yi ikirarin nasara (duk da cewa SARS sun bace a ko'ina ba kawai inda aka yi amfani da NPI ba). Shugaban Amurka George W. Bush ne damuwa game da harin halittu bayan 9/11 da kuma mamaye Iraki da ya tambayi tawagarsa don fito da dukkan martanin al'umma.
Na biyu murar tsuntsaye tsoro ya kara dagula al'amuran da suka kunno kai na 'tsarin kamuwa da cutar' (duk da cewa tsoro bai zama komai ba). Shirin da tawagar ta bullo da shi ya dogara ne kan amfani da NPIs don nisantar da jama'a - yayi kama da abin da kasar Sin ta yi amfani da shi, kodayake mambobin kungiyar da kansu ba su yaba wa kasar Sin don ra'ayinsu ba, amma, abin mamaki, aikin kimiyyar sakandare na wani memba. 'yar shekara 14.
Wannan dabarar kare lafiyar halittu ta draconian ta girma daga nan. Ya zo ya haɗa da damuwa kan saurin haɓakar alluran rigakafi da tura allurar dijital ta wuce yayin da dabarun ficewa daga hane-hane, musamman allurar mRNA waɗanda aka gani a matsayin maganin da za'a iya bugawa don daidaitawa da sauri zuwa ƙwayoyin cuta.
Zaɓin dabarun rigakafin mRNA na iya yin bayanin dalilin da ya sa Amurka da sauran hukumomin kiwon lafiya da alama sun ƙara yin ƙoƙari don nemo matsalolin tsaro tare da allurar rigakafi na adenovirus (Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca) fiye da allurar mRNA (Pfizer da Moderna). Bill Gates ya kasance farkon wanda ya tuba zuwa harkar tsaron halittu kuma ya zama babban majiɓinci, musamman yadda sha'awar gwamnatin Amurka ta yi sanyi a cikin shekarun Obama.
Sabbin hanyoyin da suka dace da yanayin rayuwa, dabarun shirye-shiryen rigakafin cutar ta NPI sannu a hankali sun shiga cikin manufofin kasa da kasa da ayyuka, gami da tsare-tsaren cutar ta kasa, WHO jagora, da kuma motsa jiki na kwaikwaiyo irin su Event 201, wanda aka shirya Johns Hopkins University.
An fara tura wuraren kulle-kullen ne bisa shawarar taron jama'ar Afirka a cikin 2014 a matsayin martani ga cutar Ebola, kuma mai ban sha'awa ya haɗa da abin ban mamaki na gaba da aka gani a farkon 2020 na ɗaruruwan bots na kafofin watsa labarun da ke haɓaka ra'ayin. Wanene ke bayan waɗannan 'kulle bots' a cikin 2014 da 2020 ba a warware su ba.
Yin amfani da ƙwayoyin cuta don taimakawa wajen samar da alluran rigakafi da magunguna masu yuwuwar kamuwa da cututtukan ƙwayar cuta wani ɓangare ne na ajandar kare lafiyar halittu, kuma sanannen abu ne cewa ƙwayoyin cuta suna zubowa daga ɗakunan gwaje-gwaje, suna haifar da tambayoyi masu mahimmanci game da ko kuɗin da aka samu don bincike ya cancanci haɗarin leaks masu mutuwa.
Bayan da kwayar cutar ta bulla a cikin hankalin jama'a a watan Disamba na 2019, kasar Sin ta aiwatar da sabbin dabarun kare halittu - ko da yake abin sha'awa, ba har sai ranar 23 ga Janairu, yana mai nuni da cewa da farko ba ta dauki kwayar cutar a matsayin barazana ba; hakika, da farko an soki gwamnatin kasar Sin sosai saboda rashin daukar barazanar da muhimmanci. Abin lura ne cewa Daraktan CDC na China George Gao memba ne CEPI, daya daga cikin sassan da Gates ke ba da tallafi na tsarin kare lafiyar halittu wanda manufarsa shine "yin rigakafin cututtuka a cikin kwanaki 100".
A matsayinta na majagaba na dabarun NPI, a shekarar 2003 da 2020, kasar Sin ta zama babbar mai tura NPI a lokacin barkewar cutar numfashi ta COVID-19, tare da daukaka martabar kasar da kuma mutuncin shugaba Xi Jinping tare da nasarar da suka samu. Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya ta shiga cikin wannan har zuwa wani mataki (ko da yake ba daidai ba), tare da shugaban tawagar hadin gwiwa kan COVID-19, Bruce Aylward, ayyanawa A ranar 24 ga Fabrairu, 2020 cewa: "Abin da kasar Sin ta nuna shi ne, dole ne ku yi hakan, idan kun yi hakan, za ku iya ceton rayuka."
Italiya ta fara sanya NPIs a Yamma. A farkon Fabrairu 2020, Italiya ta ba da izini ƙararrawa tallan kayan kawa karatu daga cibiyar nazarin halittu da ke goyon bayan Gates, da Kessler Foundation, wanda ya ba da shawarar NPI don sarrafa yaduwar. Lokacin da sabis na gaggawa a Lombardy ya zama, a cewar shugaban su Alberto Zoli, rufe a tsakiyar watan Fabrairu, Ministan Lafiya Roberto Speranza (mai ra'ayin gurguzu wanda ya gani, ko ya zo ya gani, kulle-kulle a matsayin sabon wayewar Hagu) ya sanya dokar hana fita ta farko a Lombardy a ranar 21 ga Fabrairu kuma, makonni biyu bayan haka lokacin da ya yi kama da sun yi aiki (kuma yayin da mace-mace ke hauhawa), a duk fadin kasar.
Daga nan sai wasu ƙasashe suka bi jagororin Italiya, yayin da nau'ikan tsaro daban-daban, gami da masu yin samfuri kamar Neil Ferguson, suka tura ajanda a fili da bayan kofofin. 10 Downing Street Shugaban ma'aikata na lokacin Dominic Cummings ya fadawa 'yan majalisar Wani "cibiyar sadarwa irin na Bill Gates" ya yi masa shakku sosai a tsakiyar Maris 2020 yana gaya masa cewa "ka sake yin tunani gaba daya game da yadda kake yin wannan."
Sakamakon duk wannan shi ne cewa yayin da ake ci gaba da firgita a farkon 2020, a ƙarshe an kawo duniya gabaɗaya kan ra'ayin masu fafutukar kare lafiyar halittu akan NPI don ' sarrafa yaduwar cutar' kuma, daga baya, kan rigakafin saurin sa ido da rigakafin dijital. Duk wani riƙewa na shakka ko shakka a tsakanin jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a da sauran su an kwance damara ko kuma a rufe su a wannan lokacin yayin da wata sabuwar annoba ta al'ada ta mamaye tsakanin manyan mutane.
Shugabanni sun himmatu a siyasance da tunani ga sabon tsarin mulki, wanda kuma ya sami ƙarfafa ta hanyar tunani rukuni da matsin lamba daga jama'a masu firgita. Ana iya ganin wannan tsari yana faruwa a ainihin lokacin, kamar yadda ƙoƙarin banza na jami'an gwamnatin Burtaniya na tsayawa kan dabarun rigakafin garken garken garken. tsakiyar Maris 2020 sun jima watsi da ta fuskar ƙirar ƙira mai faɗakarwa, kafofin watsa labaru masu ƙiyayya da koma bayan jama'a. Tsoron da ke bayan al'amuran, musamman a Amurka, wataƙila wasu jami'ai ne suka haifar da su da sanin cewa kwayar cutar ta kasance (ko kama da ita sosai) sarrafawa.
Bukatun wasu kungiyoyi, irin su kamfanonin harhada magunguna da kungiyoyin kwadago, suma sun taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen karfafa labarin tsaro na rayuwa.
Me ke ingiza taron kare lafiyar halittu (wanda ya hada da alkaluma irin su Richard Hatchett, Robert Glass, Carter Mecher, Rajeev Venkayya, Neil Ferguson, Stefano Merler da George Gao) ke tuka wannan? Ga mutane da yawa shi ne, na yi imani, imani na gaske cewa abin da suke yi shine ceton bil'adama daga cututtuka masu kisa da kuma shirya shi don cututtuka na gaba da hare-haren kwayoyin halitta.
Wannan tabbas ya bayyana shine abin da ke motsa Bill Gates, alal misali. Duk da yake dalilai na iya zama gauraye, ya kamata mu, ina ganin, kada mu yi la'akari da cutarwar da waɗanda suka yi imani da gaske za su iya yi cewa suna ceton duniya - cewa mafitarsu mai tsattsauran ra'ayi, ko da yake tana da zafi, ya zama dole don kawar da bala'i.
Ita kanta kwayar cutar fa? Ya bayyana ba dadewa ba sai kaka 2019 - farkon tabbataccen shaidar gwaji ya samo samfurori (maganin rigakafi da antigens) daga ƙasashe kamar su. Faransa da kuma Brazil tun daga Nuwamba 2019. Akwai wasu samfuran gwaji tabbatacce a baya, amma waɗannan rashin sarrafawa don haka sun fi zama masu ratsawa ko gurɓata. Yayin da wasu ke ba da shawarar cewa ƙarancin yaduwar raƙuman ruwa na farko a Gabashin Asiya shaida ce ta yaɗuwar farko da ke haɓaka wasu rigakafi, ƙarancin matakan rigakafin ƙwayoyin cuta a cikin waɗannan al'ummomin tun farkon barkewar cutar ta ƙidaya wannan ra'ayin.
SARS-CoV-2 ya bayyana a matsayin ƙwayar cuta ce ta injiniya, mai yuwuwa ta fito da gangan daga dakin gwaje-gwaje da ke aiki da samfuran sa. An ba da shawarar injiniya ta, a tsakanin sauran abubuwa, kasancewar furin cleavage site, wanda ke sa ya zama mai saurin kamuwa da cutar ta coronavirus, kuma mai yiwuwa ya bayyana dalilin da ya sa, ba kamar SARS ba, duka biyun iska ne kuma ya haifar da annoba ta shekaru da yawa. Ba a san wuraren da za a cire furin ba a cikin irin wannan nau'in coronavirus a cikin yanayi, kodayake galibi ana saka su a cikin lab don haɓaka kamuwa da cuta.
Ba a sami tafki na kwayar cutar a cikin dabbobi ba, duk da cikakken bincike, da shaidar agogon kwayoyin. shawara zai ɗauki shekaru 15-43 don SARS-CoV-2 don samo asali daga sanannen danginsa, RaTG13. Mai fadi rufewa ta wadanda ke da alhakin ainihin irin binciken da zai iya haifar da kwayar cutar kuma shaida ce ta injiniya.
Omicron kuma mai yiwuwa leaked daga dakin gwaje-gwaje, shaidun da suka hada da cewa ya samo asali ne daga wani nau'i mai lalacewa kuma yana dauke da duk maye gurbi na kawar da rigakafi da aka buga a baya. Wataƙila an ƙirƙira shi don manufar binciken rigakafin rigakafi.
Har yanzu akwai wasu sassa na hanyoyin watsa kwayar cutar da ba a bayyana su ba. Akwai, alal misali, an sami matakai da yawa na yaduwa, kowannensu yana da mabambantan yanayi.
- Fitowa (lokacin bazara-kaka 2019) - Disamba 2019: Ba a gano yaduwa ta duniya tare da ƙarancin cuta da nauyin mace-mace.
- Disamba 2019-Fabrairu 2020: Barkewar cuta mai saurin kisa a Wuhan amma kadan ne a wasu wurare kamar Japan, Koriya ta Kudu, Thailand, Turai, Amurka da sauran China (ba tare da la'akari da sanya NPI ba).
- Fabrairu 2020-Mayu 2020: Wasu barkewar annoba a wasu yankuna da birane (misali London, New York, Paris, Stockholm da sauransu) galibi a Yammacin Turai da Amurka, farawa a Lombardy (da Iran).
- Summer 2020: Wasu raƙuman ruwa masu kisa a wasu wuraren da ba a taɓa yin tasiri a baya ba, gami da sassan Amurka
- Kaka da hunturu 2020-2021: Barkewar kisa ta duniya a yawancin yankuna, kodayake ba Indiya ko Afirka ba.
Bayan haka, bambance-bambancen Alpha, Delta da Omicron sun fito a jere, kowannensu ya haifar da sabon igiyar ruwa ta duniya, gami da Indiya (tare da Delta) kuma a ƙarshe a Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya (tare da Omicron).
Zato na shine cewa waɗannan canje-canjen haɓakawa sun samo asali ne daga canje-canje a cikin kwayar cutar kanta (bambance-bambancen) da kuma yadda waɗannan ke hulɗa da tsarin rigakafi na ɗan adam, kodayake an yarda. shaida akan haka daga farkon lokaci yana da yawa.
Shaidar agogon kwayoyin halitta shawara cewa kakannin kakannin bambance-bambancen da ke bayan tashin farko na Disamba 2019-Fabrairu 2020 sun fara kamuwa da mutane a lokacin rani zuwa kaka 2019. Me yasa kawai ya fara zama mai kisa a Wuhan Disamba 2019, sannan kuma babu wani wuri sai Lombardy da Iran a cikin Fabrairu 2020, ba a bayyana gaba ɗaya ba. Wasu wuraren ba su ga barkewar cutar ba sai da yawa daga baya, a cikin bazara 2020, hunturu 2020-21, bazara 2021 (Indiya) ko ma, a cikin yanayin Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya, hunturu 2021-22.
Ni kaina, na tabbata wannan ba saboda kwayar cutar ba ce ke da alhakin yawancin mace-macen ba kuma a maimakon haka yana da firgita / NPIs / ka'idojin magani, kamar yadda wasu ke ba da shawara. Wannan saboda ban ga wata bayyananniyar dangantaka tsakanin lokacin da raƙuman mace-mace suka faru da matakan firgita, tsattsauran ra'ayi na NPI ko ka'idojin magani (misali, wuraren da ba su firgita ba kamar su Sweden, South Dakota da Belarus har yanzu sun ga babban raƙuman mutuwa a cikin 2020). Babban abu ya bayyana shine bambance-bambancen da ke ciki. Bukin da abokan aiki bayanin kula cewa maye gurbin amino acid guda ɗaya a cikin kwayar halittar SARS-CoV-2 "na iya ƙara kamuwa da cuta da kamuwa da cuta ga mutane."
Wasu asirin sun kasance, musamman game da abin da China ta sani da yaushe. Yaushe ne gwamnatin kasar Sin ta san cewa kwayar cutar tana yaduwa, kuma yaushe ta gane cewa ta yadu ne? Ya kasance ɗaukar layi na Cibiyar Nazarin Kwayoyin cuta ta Wuhan a ranar 12 ga Satumba, 2019 a Alama cewa ya riga ya sani ko zargin wani abu a lokacin, ko kuma kawai wani ɓangare na sirrin gama gari game da binciken coronavirus?
Shin sojojin Amurka sun san cutar kwalara a lardin Hubei (wanda Wuhan babban birni ne) a ciki? Nuwamba 2019? Wannan Covid ne ko mura na yanayi? Me yasa, bayan sanar da kwayar cutar a ranar 31 ga Disamba, China ba ta kulle Wuhan ba har sai ranar 23 ga Janairu - wannan yana da alaƙa da tallafin gwamnati. Rahoton a ranar 24 ga Janairu wanda ya ƙare watsawar ɗan adam yana faruwa (ko da yake an daidaita shi akan yadda ingancinsa yake)?
Hakanan rahoton ya ba da cikakkun bayanai kan abin da ya ce su ne farkon marasa lafiya na Covid 41 a Wuhan a cikin watan Disamba, yana mai cewa sun kasance masu matsakaicin shekaru 49, sama da kashi biyu cikin uku ba su da wani yanayi kuma shida (15%) sun mutu. Me yasa waɗannan marasa lafiya suka kasance ƙanana da lafiya idan aka kwatanta da marasa lafiya na Covid a wani wuri, kuma a ina ne duk sauran marasa lafiyar cutar ke yaduwa a duniya a duk lokacin kaka da hunturu?
Me yasa kwayar cutar ta fi sauki a wani wuri a wannan lokacin hunturu, kuma barkewar cutar ta gaba ta kasance watanni bayan haka, a Italiya da Iran - shin Wuhan ta sami wani yanayi mai saurin kisa amma ba mai saurin yaduwa ba a lokacin hunturu (wannan shine dalilin da ya sa Sinawa da farko suka yi shakku game da yadda ta yadu sosai)?
Da yawa game da rahotannin farko daga Wuhan ba su da ma'ana, kuma tabbas ba za a iya dogaro da su ba. Amma duk da haka rahotannin likitoci kamar Li Wenliang kan yadda suka fara cin karo da kwayar cutar a cikin marasa lafiya a ƙarshen Disamba ya zama abin dogaro.
Wadannan budaddiyar tambayoyin duk da haka, abubuwan da ke sama suna ganina a gare ni shine mafi kyawun bayanin abin da ya faru a halin yanzu, la'akari da duk shaidun da ke akwai.
Makullin komawa gida shine ba tsoro kawai ba. Amsa ga cutar ta COVID-19 tana wakiltar nasara ta wata manufa ta ilimin kimiyyar halitta wacce ta fito a cikin 2005 kuma tun daga lokacin da wata tsararriyar tsari, samun kuɗaɗe da ingantacciyar hanyar sadarwa ta masu akida ta tura ta. Wadannan masu tsattsauran ra'ayi suna haɓaka da kuma ci gaba da ra'ayoyin da ke haifar da sabuwar hanya mai ban sha'awa ta hanyar buga su a cikin manyan mujallu, dasa su a cikin manufofin jama'a da dokoki, tura su a cikin kafofin watsa labaru da kuma lalata wadanda ba su yarda ba, duk da haka fitattu ko masu cancanta.
Wannan akida ita ce makiya, kuma ganinta da abin da take, shi ne matakin farko na cin galaba a kanta.
An sake buga shi daga DailySceptic
