Duk masu karatu na Brownstone sun san cewa rigakafin Covid bai kamata ya zama tilas ba kuma bai kamata a taɓa rubuta wa yara ko mata masu juna biyu ba, ƙungiyoyi waɗanda ba a gwada su ba. Dukkanmu mun firgita don ganin labarun abubuwan mamaki da yawa na raunin zuciya kwatsam, ciwon daji na turbo, da rashin ciki a cikin kwanaki da watanni bayan fitowar wadannan harbe-harbe.
Yaya mummunan zai iya zama? Menene mafi munin kiyasin tasirin allurar rigakafin Covid akan kididdigar mutane masu rai wanda akwai wasu nau'ikan hujjoji masu ma'ana da kuma ilimin halitta? Bari mu dubi zuciyar duhu kuma mu yi la'akari da mafi muni.
Domain 1: Yawan Mutuwa a Duniya
Babban tushen bayanan mace-mace na duniya shine Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta Al'umma ta Duniya, wanda a lokacin rubuce-rubuce ba a sabunta shi tare da takamaiman lamba don 2024. Saboda haka muna amfani da bayanai kawai ta hanyar 2023. A ƙasa mun shirya adadin adadin mace-mace a duniya tun daga 1950, kuma muna ƙara wannan hasashen na 10-2020 na Trend kafin 2023 a cikin 1958. layin ja). Lambobin sun nuna cewa adadin mace-macen shekara-shekara yana canzawa cikin tsari cikin lokaci, sai dai lokacin da mutane suka yi wani abu na wauta kamar Babban Leap Forward na 1962-XNUMX, wanda ya yi daidai da babban hauhawar mutuwar duniya da ke bayyana a cikin jadawali kuma wanda ya kasance. Kimanin mutane miliyan 45 sun yi asarar rayuka mutane.
Bambance-bambance (ko da yaushe tabbatacce) tsakanin ainihin mace-mace da mutuwar da ake tsammanin na kowace shekara huɗu daga 2020 zuwa 2023 ana nuna su a cikin jadawali mai zuwa.
Adadin yawan mace-mace - dangane da abin da za a yi tsammani dangane da yanayin shekaru 10 da suka gabata - a cikin wadannan shekaru hudu mutane miliyan 19.4 ne.
Tabbas, wuce gona da iri a cikin 2020 ba zai iya zama saboda allurar Covid, don haka adadin mutuwar miliyan 4.8 a cikin 2020 dole ne a danganta shi da haɗuwa da kwayar cutar da kanta tare da kulle-kulle da martanin manufofin. Adadin da ya wuce kima bayan 2020 na mutuwar mutane miliyan 14.6 na iya yuwuwa, a cikin mafi munin yanayi (daga mahallin masana'antar rigakafin da masu turawa), za a danganta su gaba ɗaya ga allurar.
Koyaya, zamu iya ɗauka a fili cewa idan kwayar cutar ce da kulle-kulle waɗanda suka kashe ƙarin mutane miliyan 4.8 a cikin 2020, to aƙalla 75% daga cikinsu sun kasance marasa ƙarfi da tsofaffi waɗanda za su mutu ta wata hanya, Covid ko babu Covid, a cikin shekaru masu zuwa (a cikin Amurka, 75% na mutuwa daga Covid ya faru a cikin mutane masu shekaru 65 zuwa sama, kuma 93% sun kasance shekaru 50 zuwa sama).
Idan kwayar cutar ta bulla ne kawai da kuma kulle-kullen, to kusan mutane miliyan 3.6 ba su kusa mutuwa ba wanda in ba haka ba za su yi a cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa. A takaice dai, za mu sa ran jimillar miliyan 3.6 M mace-mace dangane da yanayin shekaru goma kamar yadda tushen mu ke ƙididdige adadin mace-mace na ƴan shekaru masu zuwa 2020.
Aiwatar da wannan gyare-gyaren rashin gaskiya ta hanyar ƙara a cikin waɗannan miliyan 3.6 'bacewar mummunan mutuwar' yana haifar da adadin mutuwar da ya wuce kima wanda zai iya zama a bayyane saboda allurar rigakafin miliyan 18.2. A ganinmu, wannan shi ne matsakaicin adadin adadin mace-mace da za a iya kare shi bisa ga waɗannan bayanai ta hanyar alluran rigakafin, ganin cewa babu wani takamaiman dalili in ban da wanda aka yi bayani a sama na tsammanin yanayin ƙidayar mutuwar shekaru 10 da aka yi hasashe daga 2019 zuwa kiyasin mace-mace a cikin shekaru masu zuwa.
Wannan kiyasin na miliyan 18.2 yayi layi daidai da kyau tare da zazzafan takara Adadin mace-macen rigakafin Covid miliyan 17 da Denis Rancourt da mawallafa suka yi ikirarin a cikin wani bincike na 2023. An yi iƙirarin sama mutane miliyan 31 sun mutu, amma ba zai yiwu ba idan mutum ya yi imani da adadin mutuwar duniya da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta buga.
Shin abubuwa za su iya zama mafi muni fiye da yadda waɗannan ƙididdiga suka nuna, saboda karkatar da bayanai? Wataƙila hukumomi sun ɓoye mace-mace da gangan a wasu yankuna, amma wannan yana da wuya a yi tunanin a cikin ƙasashe masu arziki tare da ƙa'idodin bayar da rahoton mutuwa masu aiki sosai, kuma inda tsarin da yawa (kamar gado) ke ciyar da rajistar mutuwar mutuwa kuma suna tilasta wa waɗannan rajista su kasance masu gaskiya. Yin magudi yana da sauƙin tunanin a wurare kamar Indiya, inda babu ingantaccen rajista na wanda ke zaune a cikin ƙasar ta wata hanya, kuma inda hukumomi za su yi sha'awar guje wa ganewa ko kunya game da duk wani fashewar mace-mace saboda manufofinsu.
Manufofin Indiya sun haɗa da kulle-kulle marasa tausayi waɗanda suka kwashe rayuwar ɗaruruwan miliyoyin talakawa da kuma ƙwazo na rarraba alluran rigakafi tun daga Janairu 2021, gami da samar da gida. covaxin wanda aka ba da izini don amfani kawai makonni shida bayan ta Gwajin asibiti na Phase III ya fara. (Sakamakon gwaji na Mataki na III, bayan farkon ƙirƙirar sabon ɗan takarar rigakafin, zai ɗauki shekaru.)
Maiyuwa ne damuwar amincin bayanan na iya nufin cewa yawan mace-mace ta hanyar 2023 sakamakon allurar rigakafin Covid a zahiri ya haura miliyan 20, kuma haka ma wasu dalilai kamar lalacewar lafiya da aka daɗe daga kulle-kulle ko munanan ka'idojin kula da asibiti suna da alhakin wasu adadin mutuwar tun tsakiyar 2021.
Manufarmu ita ce kimanta iyakar adadin masu mutuwa sakamakon alluran rigakafin, kuma saboda wannan, miliyan 18.2 shine mafi kyawun zato. Wannan adadin yayi girma da kyau sauran kimomi ga Amurka (wanda Peter McCullough ya yi nasara) cewa allurar rigakafin Covid sun kashe 400,000 zuwa 700,000: duniya tana da kusan mutane 25 fiye da Amurka da ke cikinta, kuma sau 25 700,000 shine miliyan 17.5.
Domain 2: Batattu Jarirai
Jarirai nawa ne za a iya yin hasarar sakamakon kai tsaye sakamakon allurar rigakafin Covid, saboda raguwar haifuwar halittu, ainihin asarar rayuwar da ba a haifa ba ta hanyar zubar da ciki, ko gazawar maza da mata don saduwa ko yin jima'i don dalilai masu alaƙa da allurar rigakafi (saboda, alal misali, jin rashin lafiya tare da alamun rigakafin bayan rigakafin)?
Hakanan, bayanan duniya game da haihuwa shine wurin da za'a duba, tare da layin da aka tsara kafin 2020 don zamanin Covid kuma an tsara shi da ja a cikin jadawali da ke ƙasa. Ba kamar mutuwar duniya ba, haihuwar duniya tana canzawa cikin kuskure akan lokaci wanda ke haifar da ingantacciyar tsinkaya bayan 2019 mafi wahala, amma kamar yadda yake tare da adadin mace-mace, muna aiwatarwa dangane da yanayin cikin shekaru 10 kafin Covid.
Waɗannan bayanan sun ba da shawarar ƙarancin jarirai miliyan 27.9, waɗanda jimlar miliyan 6.1 na farko (daga 2020) a fili ba a iya danganta su ga allurar rigakafin cutar ta Covid amma na iya kasancewa aƙalla saboda kulle-kullen da aka fara da rashin ƙarfi a China a farkon 2020. Ƙananan yara miliyan 21.7 da aka haifa daga 2021 zuwa 2023 na iya kasancewa a cikin alurar riga kafi. rashin zubar da ciki, gazawar hadi, da karancin damar hadi. Koyaya, a al'ada mutum zai yi tsammanin dawowar haihuwa bayan 2020, tare da jariran da ba a haife su a ƙarshen 2020 ba saboda ɗaukar ciki a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa yayin da mutane suka kama rayuwarsu kuma suka sami damar da suka rasa.
Biye da irin wannan dabarar kamar yadda muka yi amfani da shi a sama ga tsarin mace-macen da ya wuce kima, rashin koma baya a cikin kirga jarirai bayan 2020 a fili yana nuna ƙarin jariran da suka ɓace fiye da jimlar bambance-bambance tsakanin ainihin jimlar kowace shekara mai zuwa daga tsinkayar tushen layi. Bugu da ƙari, wasu abubuwa masu kisa (ko mafi daidai, a cikin wannan yanayin, masu hana rayuwa) abubuwan da alama sun lalata abin da ake sa ran dawowa. Yayin da wasu dalilai na raguwar haihuwa suna da kyau, duka ƙananan jarirai miliyan 27.9 da aka haifa fiye da yadda ake tsammani bayan 2019 babban zato ne mai karewa kan illolin da allurar rigakafin suka yi a fannin dakatar da sabuwar rayuwa.
Ta yaya wannan kiyasin ya yi daidai da kiyasin wasu ƙasashe da wasu nazarce-nazarce? Duniya haihuwa raguwa daga 2019 zuwa 2021-2023 ya kasance kusan kashi 5.7% na matan manyan shekarun haihuwa (20-34), kodayake raguwar raguwar watanni tara bayan fitowar allurar rigakafi Jamus da Sweden ya wuce 10%. A nazarin kwanan nan a Jamhuriyar Czech har ma sun ba da shawarar raguwar haihuwa cikin kashi 30 cikin 27.9 a tsakanin wadanda aka yi wa allurar da wadanda ba a yi musu allurar ba. Idan waɗannan ƙididdiga mafi girma na ainihin raguwar haihuwa daidai ne kuma wasu dalilai ba a bayyana su ba (misali, bambance-bambancen sha'awar daukar ciki a tsakanin waɗanda aka yi wa alurar riga kafi da matan da ba a yi musu allurar ba) ga adadi mai yawa na ƙasashe, to kiyasin ƙananan jarirai miliyan XNUMX na iya yin ƙasa da yawa.
Duk wata gardama cewa adadin jariran da suka ɓace ya zarce miliyan 27.9 dole ne ya tsaya a kan tsammanin cewa haihuwa ta duniya za ta yi tsalle bayan 2019 a cikin duniyar da ba ta da alaƙa da Covid-2020, irin wannan hasashen namu na shekaru goma tare da tsammanin billa bayan 1970 ba daidai ba ne. Ba mu san irin wannan takamaiman gardama ba, kodayake jadawali da ke sama ya nuna cewa ƙananan raguwa (kamar a cikin XNUMXs) sun biyo baya ta hanyar haɓakawa, don haka mutum ba zai iya kawar da shi ba.
Domain 3: Asarar Haihuwa na gaba da Mutuwar Mace-mace na gaba
Nazarin kwanan nan nuna asarar kwai tsakanin mata da dindindin epigenetic canje-canje (sau da yawa ana jujjuya shi azaman tabbatacce maimakon mara kyau) daga wasu alluran rigakafin Covid, wanda ke haifar da tsammanin ci gaba da lalacewar ƙwayoyin cuta daga harbin. Nau'o'in lalacewa bisa ma'ana na iya haɗawa da shinge ga ɗaukar ciki da ɗaukar ciki zuwa ajali, farkon menopause, da ci gaba da yawan matsalolin cututtukan zuciya, tabarbarewar tsarin rigakafi, da ciwon daji.
Yana da matukar wahala a iya ƙiyasin ƙarfin gwiwa yadda mummunan mutuwar mutuwa da kuma hana matsalolin haihuwa na iya ci gaba, amma ana iya bincika ƴan layukan gardama.
Ƙidaya ɗaya na yawan mace-mace na gaba zai iya dogara ne akan ɗaukan kasancewar furotin mai karu da se shi ne ainihin tushen cututtukan cututtukan da ke haifar da mutuwa, ta hanyoyi daban-daban waɗanda aka sanya su kuma sun yi daidai da cututtukan da aka gani (na jijiyoyin jini, rigakafi, epigenetic, da sauransu). Yayin da ga mafi yawan mutane bayanin furotin mai karu ya ragu zuwa kusan sifili shekara guda bayan alurar riga kafi, akwai Ƙungiya tsakanin waɗanda ke da 'Post vaccination Syndrome' (PVS) waɗanda ke nuna furcin furotin mai gudana..
Girman dukkanin rukunin PVS ba a sani ba, amma binciken Yale 'LISTEN' ya gano cewa a cikin rukunin rukunin su, matakan furotin na karu a zahiri sun fi girma. bayan shekaru 2 fiye da farkon, ma'ana cewa haɗarin da ke gudana ga waɗannan mutane yana da aƙalla kamar mummunan haɗari na farko na lalacewa. Wannan rukunin sun kasance kusan kashi ɗaya bisa uku na ƙungiyar tare da PVS (kimanin kashi 15 cikin 42 a cikin wannan hoton na 5, idan mutum ya kirga dige). Kyakkyawan zato zai kasance cewa kashi uku na waɗanda ke da PVS za su ci gaba da yin ƙarin haɗarin mutuwa daidai da haɗarin mutuwa a cikin shekara ta farko bayan alurar riga kafi.
Tambayar ta kasance: Mutane nawa ne gaba ɗaya ke fama da PVS?
A binciken da aka buga akan bayanai daga Indiya yana nuna cewa PVS yana nan don kusan 60% na mutane watanni 12 bayan alurar riga kafi. Za a iya fitar da wani ƙididdiga daga bayanan raunin rigakafin rigakafi a cikin Tsarin Ba da Rahoto na Alurar Magani (VAERS), wanda don haka Buga na baya-bayan nan na Janos Szebeni ya taimaka wajen taƙaita mahimman lambobi. Wani tsohuwar labarin da aka buga tare da yawancin bayanai iri ɗaya da ƙarshe shine ta Saxon, Thorp, da Viglione.
Ya zuwa Nuwamba 2024, an kiyasta cewa damar da za a yi wani mummunan 'wani abu' (AE) da aka ba da rahoto don rigakafin da aka ba (wanda ya karɓi allura biyu) ya kai kusan 0.5%. Wannan kwatankwacin adadi mai kama da 0.17% a cikin Mayu 2023, wanda zai iya kasancewa saboda haɓaka ƙimar rahoton AE kawai, amma idan an ɗauke shi da ƙimar fuska, yana nuna yawan raunin da ya faru a baya. Ganin cewa ƙimar rashin ba da rahoto na asali ga masu alaƙa da cutar ta Covid An kiyasta AE ta Steve Kirsch ya zama 41, wannan yana nufin cewa kashi 20% na duk allurar rigakafin Covid sun sami AE mai tsanani, tare da yawancin waɗannan an ba da rahoton tsawon lokaci bayan rigakafin. Kamar yadda Szebeni ya lura, "alurar rigakafin COVID-19, saboda yawan allurai, ana iya danganta su da adadi mai yawa na AEs a cikin wadanda ba COVID-19 suka kamu da cutar ba, galibi masu lafiya."
Wannan ya sa ya yiwu a yi gardama kan bayanan VAERS cewa kashi 20% na mutane a halin yanzu suna fama da wani mataki daga dogon maganin alurar riga kafi, wanda ya yi ƙasa da abin da binciken ta amfani da bayanai daga rahotannin Indiya ya kasance bayan watanni 12. Yawancin waɗannan mutanen ba za su sami matsalolin da ke gudana ba, amma idan muka ɗauki ƙiyasin da ke sama cewa 1/3 daga cikinsu suna fama da alamun bayyanar furotin mai ƙarfi na dindindin kuma saboda haka za su ga matsalolin ci gaba, wanda zai iya tsammanin wasu 6.7% na yawan jama'a za su kasance masu fama da '' dogon alluran rigakafi '' na dindindin waɗanda kowace shekara za su fuskanci haɗarin lafiya iri ɗaya kamar yadda mutum bazuwar zai fuskanta a cikin shekararsa ta farko bayan rigakafin.
Mutum na iya yin gardama don ƙananan ƙima ta hanyar ɗaukar ƙananan ƙididdiga don rashin bayar da rahoton raunin da ya faru ko kuma ta hanyar ɗaukar wasu ƙididdiga don yaduwar PVS, amma tun da muna ƙoƙarin duba yanayin mafi munin yanayi wanda yake da kyau, mun tsaya tare da yuwuwar 6.7% na yawan alurar riga kafi na duniya za su ci gaba da shan wahala ta dindindin daga allurar rigakafin Covid, wanda ya kai kusan mutane miliyan 400 a duk duniya. A yawancin binciken, waɗannan waɗanda abin ya shafa za a kira su 'dogon-Covid' maimakon masu fama da dogon rigakafin. Lalle ne, watakila ba kwatsam, game da 7% na duka manya An ce suna da dogon Covid (game da 400 mutane miliyan a duniya).
Yanzu, kashi 6.7 cikin 2021 na yawan adadin wadanda aka kashe na '' gajeriyar rigakafin '' na shekarar 680,000 kusan mutane 20 ne, don haka kididdigar farko na adadin wadanda ake tsammanin za su mutu a nan gaba zai zama adadin a cikin kowace shekara 13 masu zuwa saboda 'dogon rigakafin' - adadin karin mutuwar miliyan XNUMX. Yawancin zato sun dogara da wannan ko duk wani hasashe game da allurar rigakafin da za ta haifar da mace-mace a nan gaba, wanda shine dalili daya da ya sa yawancin manazarta ba su kuskura su fito fili da kiyasin ba.
Mutum zai iya samun ƙididdiga mafi girma idan mutum ya ɗauka cewa duk waɗanda ke da AE (wanda aka ruwaito ko a'a) za su sami lahani na dindindin wanda zai haifar da haɗarin shekara ɗaya kamar yadda aka fuskanta a cikin shekara ta farko bayan maganin alurar riga kafi, amma wannan ba shi da kyau a cikin ilimin halitta kamar yadda mai kula da lalacewa (maganin furotin spike) ya yi 'wanke' a cikin mafi yawan mutane, har ma da wadanda ke da lalacewar alurar riga kafi. Ko hasashenmu na 1-in-3 daga cikin rukunin AE mai tsanani wanda hakan bai faru a cikinsa ba shine abin da ya kamata ƙarin bincike ya iya haskakawa.
Ƙididdiga na matsalar haihuwa da ke gudana yana da wuyar haifarwa, amma mafi munin yanayi shine cewa raguwar haihuwa da aka gani ya kasance saboda lalacewa ta dindindin, watau kashi 7% na mata sun zama marasa haihuwa. Idan asarar kashi 7% na ci gaba a cikin haihuwa da aka lura a cikin 2021-2023 ya kasance saboda rashin haihuwa na tsawon rai da alluran rigakafin suka haifar, to mutum na iya tsammanin asarar kashi 7% na ci gaba har sai dukkanin matan da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi sun wuce shekarun haihuwa. Tunda adadi na 7% zai iya shafi mata masu girma na gaba a halin yanzu har yanzu suna ƙuruciyarsu, muna iya tsammanin ƙimar shekaru 20 na asarar haihuwa 7%. Za mu yi maganar asarar jarirai miliyan 180.
Bugu da ƙari, ainihin asarar haihuwa na iya zama mafi girma. Mutum na iya yin jayayya cewa a cikin 2021-2023, sake dawowa a cikin jarirai ya kamata ya faru, kuma gaskiyar cewa ba ta nuna raguwa na dindindin a cikin haihuwa na 9% (kashi 7% da aka lura, da 7% na tsammanin amma ba a lura da dawowa ba, ya yada cikin shekaru uku). Idan wannan raguwa ya kasance na dindindin, to, yin amfani da tunaninmu a sama, duniya za ta sami ƙananan jarirai fiye da miliyan 200 kafin lalacewar ta ƙare. Hakanan mutum zai iya bayyana cewa wasu kaso na jariran da aka haifa ko kuma shayar da matan da aka yiwa alurar riga kafi zasu sami wani nau'in tabarbarewar ilimin halitta, kamar (ga jariran mata) ci gaban tsarin haihuwa na rashin aiki, wanda a cikin haka asarar da ke gudana na iya zama mafi girma - mai yuwuwa duka dangane da karancin jarirai, da kuma yawan mace-mace.
Fuskantar Mafi Muni
Mun zana abin da ke zuciyarmu shine mafi munin yanayi na lalacewar rayuwa da Covid 'alurar rigakafin' ta yi wanda, dangane da bayanan da ake samu a yanzu, mutum na iya yin hujja mai ma'ana. Yawan mace-mace da alluran rigakafin suka haifar (ya zuwa yanzu da nan gaba) na iya kaiwa miliyan 30, za a iya samun ƙarin jarirai miliyan 28 da aka hana su rayuwa saboda allurar, kuma yawancin asarar waɗannan asarar na iya yiwuwa a nan gaba idan harbin Covid ya lalata haihuwa ta dindindin. A saninmu, duk da'awar 'ceton rayuka' saboda maganin alurar riga kafi sun dogara ne akan ƙirar lissafi tare da zato na rigakafin rigakafin da aka gasa a ciki (misali, nan da kuma nan). Sabanin haka, bincikenmu a nan yana amfani da bayanai na gaske haɗe tare da zato - waɗanda ba za a iya kaucewa gina ƙididdiga ba - waɗanda muke yi a bayyane da bayyane kamar yadda iyakokin sararin samaniya ke ba da izini. Muna gayyatar wasu don su fayyace game da madadin zatonsu da kimanta sakamakonsu.
Ba mu ƙididdige illolin da ba na mutuwa ba na allurar rigakafin Covid a cikin wannan yanki, kodayake don cikakken lissafin lalacewar lafiyar da harbin ya yi, duk wani tasiri kan ingancin rayuwa ya kamata kuma a ƙidaya. Fatanmu shine waɗannan tasirin suna da mahimmanci.
Dole ne mu fuskanci yuwuwar cewa allurar rigakafin Covid sune bala'in da mutum ya yi mafi muni a duniya a tarihi, ta wani babban tazara.
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Gigi Foster, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, Farfesa ne a fannin Tattalin Arziki a Jami'ar New South Wales, Australia. Binciken ta ya shafi fannoni daban-daban da suka hada da ilimi, tasirin zamantakewa, cin hanci da rashawa, gwaje-gwajen dakin gwaje-gwaje, amfani da lokaci, tattalin arziki, da manufofin Ostiraliya. Ita ce mawallafin marubucin Babban tashin hankali na Covid.
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Paul Frijters, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, Farfesa ne na Harkokin Tattalin Arziki Lafiya a Sashen Harkokin Siyasa a Makarantar Tattalin Arziki ta London, Birtaniya. Ya ƙware a cikin micro-econometrics, wanda ya haɗa da aiki, farin ciki, da tattalin arzikin kiwon lafiya Co-marubucin Babban tashin hankali na Covid.
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Michael Baker yana da BA (Tattalin Arziki) daga Jami'ar Yammacin Ostiraliya. Shi mai ba da shawara kan tattalin arziki ne mai zaman kansa kuma ɗan jarida mai zaman kansa wanda ke da tushe a cikin binciken siyasa.
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