Da alama mun dawo cikin yanayin kashe-hanyar ku-zuwa wadata. Makon da ya gabata Wall Street ya gaishe lambar “karfi” na Afrilu PCE tare da yawan siyan siye, amma dole ne ku yi mamakin tsawon lokacin da gidaje za su ci gaba da shiga cikin tulunan kuki don kashe abin da ba sa samu.
A cewar Ma'aikatar Kasuwanci, abin takaici 4.4% Adadin tanadi na sirri da aka buga don Afrilu shine matakin mafi ƙanƙanta tun watan Agusta 2008, kuma mun san abin da ya faru na gaba!
Hakanan a bayyane yake daga ginshiƙi cewa ɓangarorin uku na Covid-Lockdowns, ƙwaƙƙwaran bacchanalia da jan zafi mai zafi na hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na duniya da rugujewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki sun aika daidaitattun lambobin tattalin arziki cikin tsaka mai wuya. Bayan haka, lokacin da adadin ajiyar kuɗi ya fita daga duniyar duniyar 34% zuwa dutsen ƙasa 4% a cikin watanni 24 kawai, ba ku ma'amala da daidaitaccen tsarin tattalin arziki.
Madadin haka, abin da kuke da shi shine ruwan da ba a bayyana shi ba ta kowace ma'ana ta kalmar. Don haka fiye da kowane lokaci, yana da mahimmanci a ɗauka ta hanyar amo na ƙididdiga don gano ainihin tushen aiki.
Ajiye Keɓaɓɓen A Matsayin Kashi na Samun Kuɗi na Keɓaɓɓu, Agusta 2008-Afrilu 2022
Don kuɗinmu, wannan binciken yana farawa da gaskiyar cewa lokacin da kuke zana adadin kuɗin ajiyar ku kuna kashewa fiye da abin da kuke samu. Kuma tun Nuwamba 2020, abin da ke faruwa ke nan.
Ma'aikatan gida da albashin albashi (layi mai ruwan hoda) ya ƙare ta 14.8% a cikin sharuddan ƙididdiga amma abubuwan amfani na sirri sun karu da ƙarin kashi 21%. Wato, Afrilu PCE (layin launin ruwan kasa) ya kasance 17.9% sama da abin da ya riga ya zama matakin "ƙumburi" na Trump a cikin Nuwamba 2020.
Rarraba Ma'aikata Da Albashi Tare da Abubuwan Kashe Kuɗi na Keɓaɓɓu, Nuwamba 2020 zuwa Afrilu 2022
Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan lambobi na ƙididdiga ba su ba da ko rabin labari ba. Lokacin da kuka kawar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, abin da kuke samu shine wasu kyawawan lambobi. Wato, ainihin PCE yana girma a kawai a 2.56%Adadin shekara-shekara tun daga watan Fabrairun 2020 pre-Covid----$ 6 tiriliyan na abubuwan da ba a iya jurewa ba.
Dalilin ba wani asiri ba ne: Daidaitawar hauhawar farashi da albashin albashi ya karu da kashi biyu cikin uku ne kawai a matakin. 1.66% a kowace shekara. Don haka don ci gaba da wasan kashe kuɗi, gidaje suna shiga cikin bankunan alade.
Canji A Daidaita-Cikin Kuɗi na PCE Game da Albashi da Kudin Albashi, Fabrairu 2020-Afrilu 2022
Don haka, a'a, ba ma tunanin akwai wani abu "mai ƙarfi" game da kashe kuɗin gida.
Abin da ke da ƙarfi a zahiri shi ne ƙimar da hauhawar farashin kaya ke ci zuwa ikon saye na gaske. Don haka, abin da rahoton kashewa na makon da ya gabata da rahoton samun kudin shiga ya nuna shi ne cewa taken PCE deflator ya ci gaba da tashi, yana aikawa a 6.27% akan Y/Y, riba mafi girma tun daga Janairu 1982.
Wannan ribar Y/Y ta kwatanta da 4.44% adadin da aka buga a watan Oktoban da ya gabata da kuma 3.58% Ƙididdigar Y/Y da aka yi rikodin a watan Afrilun da ya gabata. To wannan shine hanzari tare da daukar fansa.
A zahiri, PCE deflator ya fara ketare madaidaicin 2.00% na Fed a cikin Maris 2021 kuma ya ninka sau uku tun daga lokacin.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin PCE Deflator, 1982-2022
Har yanzu, mafi bayyana yanayin kashe kuɗi da rahoton kuɗin shiga na Afrilu shine ci gaba da raguwar adadin kuɗin canja wurin gwamnati. Bayan da aka kololuwa a duniyar wata $ 8.05 tiriliyan Adadin shekara-shekara saboda Biden Stimmy a cikin Maris 2021, biyan kuɗin canja wuri ya dawo duniya, ana aikawa da ƙasa da rabin wannan matakin, $3.83 tiriliyan, a watan Afrilu.
Sakamakon haka, ƙarin ci gaban PCE zai dogara ne akan albashi da samun kuɗin shiga na albashi, waɗanda riba a halin yanzu ke kan gaba ta hauhawar farashin kaya.
Bugu da ƙari, bayyanannen "al'ada" na biyan kuɗin canja wuri da aka nuna a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa ba daidai ba ne abin da ya bayyana. A cikin Disamba 2019, kafin rikice-rikice na Covid da Stimmy su buga lambobin a cikin hular kwarya, biyan kuɗin canja wurin gwamnati na shekara-shekara ya tsaya. $3.11 tiriliyan.
Ribar da aka samu a cikin watanni 29 tun daga wannan lokacin, don haka, yana ƙididdigewa zuwa ƙima 9.31% yawan girma na shekara-shekara. Duk da haka a nan muna tare da mabukaci da ke zurfafa cikin tanadi saboda ko dala tiriliyan 3.83 na kayan kyauta ba su isa ba don samar da injin siyayyar gida.
Adadin Canja wurin Gwamnati na Shekara-shekara, Maris 2021 zuwa Afrilu 2022
Tabbas, masu sayar da hannun jari na Wall Street sun yi watsi da labarai mai kyau a kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, suna iƙirarin cewa ƙaramin ƙugiya a gefen dama na ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa yana nufin cewa Fed ya riga ya ci yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kaya kuma bayan na gaba biyu da aka tsara 50 tushen ƙimar ƙimar zai kasance a cikin matsayi don “dakata” yaƙin neman zaɓe a watan Satumba.
Magana game da gurguwar tunani. Yana kawai ya faru da cewa 4.91% Ƙarar Y/Y da aka buga a cikin Afrilu don PCE deflator ban da abinci da makamashi ba ƙaramin maki 39 ba ne a ƙasan adadi na Fabrairu, amma wannan ba ma ainihin batu ba ne.
Gaskiyar ita ce, akwai hauhawar farashin abinci, makamashi da kayayyaki masu haɗari a duniya kuma babu ƙarshen gani. Don haka abin da ya fi dacewa shi ne jimlar farashin rayuwa, ba wanda ya keɓance abin da yake kusan kusan dala 5 a kowace galan man fetur da kuma hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi a cikin tsararraki.
Har ma a lokacin, abubuwan da aka buga na Fabrairu zuwa Afrilu na PCE deflator ban da abinci da makamashi sune mafi girma tun Satumba 1983, wanda da wuya ya kai ga nasara akan hauhawar farashin kaya.
Canjin Y/Y a cikin PCE Deflator Ban da Abinci da Makamashi, 2012-2022
Don son shakku, la'akari da abubuwan da aka buga kwanan nan don 16% trimmed ma'anar CPI. Kamar yadda muka yi bayani sau da yawa, idan kuna son cire ƙarancin ɗan gajeren lokaci daga lissafin kowane wata, kada ku yi riya cewa abinci da makamashi ba su ƙidaya ba, a maimakon haka ku fitar da mafi girman 8% kuma mafi ƙarancin kashi 8% na kayan kwandon farashi kowane wata.
Wannan yana haifar da keɓance daban-daban a kowane wata akan duka babba da ƙarami, ta haka yana sassaukar da fihirisar ba tare da karya saukar karatun fihirisar ba lokacin da kayan abinci da makamashi ke gudana.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa, karatun Y/Y na 16% da aka gyara yana nufin CPI yana ci gaba da haɓakawa.
Y/Y% Canji:
- Afrilu 2020: 2.16%;
- Afrilu 2021: 2.45%;
- Oktoba 2021: 4.12%;
- Janairu 2022: 5.42%;
- Afrilu 2022: 6.16%;
Y/Y Gyara Ma'anar CPI, Janairu 2019-Afrilu 2022
A zahiri, bugu na Afrilu shine mafi girman karatu taba rubuta tun lokacin da aka ƙaddamar da wannan sigar CPI a cikin Disamba 1983!
Lallai, ba ma kusa ba ne. Mafi girman darajar Y/Y a lokacin tashin farashin mai a tsakiyar 2008 ya kasance 3.63% kawai kuma a lokacin rikicin Gulf na farko ya tashi da kashi 5.09%.
Don haka idan ya zo ga ballyhooed Fed “dakata” a watan Satumba, fuggedaboutit!
Matsakaicin haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kamar yadda aka nuna ta hanyar 16% trimmed na nufin CPI ya fi yadda aka taɓa kasancewa-ciki har da lokacin hauhawar farashi na 1970s.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin 16% Gyara Ma'anar CPI, 1983-2022
Akwai dalilai da yawa don tsammanin babu raguwa a cikin ainihin yanayin hauhawar farashin kaya kowane lokaci nan ba da jimawa ba, amma tabbas yanayin lalacewar abubuwan hayar BLS shine haske mai walƙiya.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa, hayar tsaka-tsakin ƙasa a cikin manyan kasuwanni 50 sun tashi daga $1,475 kowane wata a cikin Afrilu 2019 zuwa $1,827 kowane wata a cikin Afrilu 2022. Wannan shine 24% riba, amma ya zuwa yanzu ƙimar hayar CPI ta tashi da kawai 10% a daidai wannan lokacin, saboda daɗaɗɗen da aka gina a cikin tsarin sa.
Fihirisar hayar kasuwa mai zaman kanta mafi iko ta haura kusan sau biyu da rabi fiye da bangaren hayar CPI a cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata.
Amma a ƙarshe CPI za ta cim ma gaskiyar kasuwa, kuma musamman ga gaskiyar cewa ribar Afrilu 2022 Y/Y a cikin realtor.com index ya kasance 16.7% idan aka kwatanta da 4.8% CPI ta ruwaito karatun Y/Y.
Gaskiyar ita ce, kashi 32% na nauyin da ke cikin CPI ya ƙunshi farashin haya kai tsaye da kuma OER (daidain hayar hayar mai shi), wanda ke bin yanayin kasuwar haya. Don haka muna da kashi ɗaya bisa uku na CPI da ke kan gaba sosai, ba tare da la'akari da abin da ya faru da abinci da makamashi ba.
Kuma lokacin da kuka kalli abin da ake kira "cikakken farashi" kawai, nauyin kayan haya ya fi 40% na CPI da 25% na PCE deflator ban da abinci da makamashi.
A cikin wata kalma, Fed ba zai sami wani uzuri don "dakata" da anti-kumburi yaƙin neman zaɓe saboda wucin gadi tsoma a cikin core index. Ko da na karshen ba shi yiwuwa ya faru a cikin kayan abu da dorewa.
Median Rents, realtor.com, Afrilu 2019-Afrilu 2022
Wani abin da za a yi la’akari da shi shi ne hauhawar farashin kayan abinci ya fi tsada fiye da yadda yake a da. Abin da muke nufi shi ne cewa hanyar abinci-daga-gida sub-index yana da nauyi mai yawa a cikin CPI fiye da yadda ya yi 30-40 shekaru da suka wuce. Hakan ya faru ne saboda rabon abincin da ake saya a gidajen abinci da sauran wuraren hidimar abinci ya yi tashin gwauron zabi.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, a lokacin Q1 1992, kashe kuɗin abinci na wata-wata a gidajen cin abinci ya kai dala biliyan 17 kawai ko kashi 61% na dala biliyan 28 da ake kashewa kowane wata a shagunan miya. Sabanin haka, yayin Q1 2022 kudaden wata-wata a gidajen cin abinci shine dala biliyan 82 ko kashi 119% na dala biliyan 69 da ake kashewa a shagunan kayan miya.
An bayyana daban-daban, a cikin shekaru 30 da suka gabata kashe kuɗin gidajen abinci ya karu da kashi 5.4% a kowace shekara - sama da ribar 3.1% na shekara-shekara don shagunan kayan miya.
Wannan babban koma baya a inda ake kashe dalar abinci yana da mahimmanci. Wannan saboda a halin da ake ciki yanzu farashin abinci na gidajen abinci ya kasance a tsakiyar ƙarancin ƙarancin ma'aikata, inda albashin sa'o'i ke ƙaruwa yanzu, wanda hakan ya ƙara haɓaka farashin kayan abinci da ke cikin shafin gidan abinci.
Kudaden Abinci na Watan Amurka: Gidajen Abinci Da Shagunan Kayan Abinci, 1992-2022
Dangane da nau'in farashin kayan aiki na farashin gidan abinci, ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa ya bar kaɗan ga tunanin. Tun daga watan Fabrairun 2020, adadin albashin sa'o'i na sa'o'i na sa'o'i a cikin sha'awa da baƙon baƙi ya tashi ta 24%.Lokacin da aka daidaita don hauhawar farashin kaya, wannan karin albashin shine mafi girma a tarihi wanda ya koma shekarun 1960.
Canjin Canjin Y/Y da aka Daidaita Kuɗi a cikin Matsakaicin Ma'aikata na Sa'a don Nishaɗi & Baƙi, 1965-2022
Dangane da sauran babban kayan abinci na farashin gidan abinci, ƙimar farashin abinci ta duniya kuma tana gaya muku duk abin da kuke buƙatar sani. A matakin 160.2 da aka buga don Afrilu, yanzu yana tsaye 58% sama da darajar Fabrairu 2020. Babu wani lokacin shekaru biyu da ya wuce wanda har ma ya zo kusa da wannan adadin na karuwa-ko da a tsakiyar tsakiyar 2008 farashin kayayyaki ya kashe ribar shekaru biyu kawai 45%.
Abin da wannan ke nufi, ba shakka, shi ne hauhawar farashin abinci da ke gangarowa daga bututun masu samarwa da farashin kayan masarufi har yanzu yana da babban kan tururi. Don haka yayin da batun "farashin hauhawar farashin kaya" ke ɗaukar gaba-da-tsakiyar a cikin faɗuwar kamfen na Majalisa, Fed ɗin ba zai sami damar tsayawa siyasa ba, ko dai.
Fihirisar Farashin Abinci na Duniya, 2019-2022
A ƙarshe, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ke shigowa daga kasuwannin kayayyaki na duniya da sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki ba su nuna alamun raguwa ba. Ko da lokacin da kuka keɓe abinci da makamashi a gefe, ƙididdigan farashin masu kera don kayan da aka gama ban da waɗannan abubuwa biyu sun tashi da 8.6% in Afrilu-ma'ana cewa watanni da yawa daga yanzu waɗannan ƙayyadaddun kayan da aka gama samarwa a duniya za su kasance suna nunawa a cikin CPI sama da hauhawar farashin abinci, makamashi da matsuguni.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, ribar Afrilu ga wannan ƙananan ƙididdiga na PPI shine mafi girma tun watan Yuni 1981, ma'ana cewa Fed yana yin garkuwa da hauhawar farashi ko yana so ya kasance ko a'a.
Ee, babu wani abu kamar Paul Volcker a cikin mil mil na ƙasa na Ginin Eccles a yau, amma wannan ba komai. Abu na ƙarshe da waɗannan masu kula da harkokin kuɗi ke so shi ne su sami 'yancin kai na 'yan siyasa su kalubalanci 'yancin kansu tare da sabon wa'adin zabe.
Canjin Y/Y A Fihirisar Farashi Don Kayayyakin Kammala Banda Abinci da Makamashi, 1981-2022
Tabbas, manufar Fed na hana hauhawar farashin kayayyaki nan ba da dadewa ba za ta haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki, amma yanzu hakan ba zai yuwu ba. An riga an jefar da mutuwa.
Daga cikin dukan mutane, har ma da mafi girman kumfa-mahaya na zamaninmu, Elon Musk, na iya ganin ta zuwa. Wannan ya bar dolts 12 kawai akan FOMC don kama gaskiya tare da shills da megaphones akan kumfa:
An tambayi (Musk) ko yana tunanin koma bayan tattalin arziki yana kan hanyarsa kuma ya gaya wa mai amfani da Twitter: "Eh, amma a zahiri wannan abu ne mai kyau, an daɗe ana zubar da kuɗi akan wawaye."
"Wasu fatara suna buƙatar faruwa. Hakanan, duk abubuwan zaman-gida na Covid sun yaudari mutane da tunanin cewa ba kwa buƙatar yin aiki tuƙuru," in ji shi.
Ya ce yana tunanin koma bayan tattalin arziki zai dauki watanni 12 zuwa 18, kuma, yayin da yake yada Milton Friedman na ciki, ya ce: "Kamfanonin da ba su da kyau a cikin tsabar kudi (watau masu lalata darajar) suna buƙatar mutuwa, domin su daina cin albarkatu."
Kuna iya kiran shi abin ban mamaki cewa da alama kamfanin Musk zai iya sharewa a cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki shekaru biyu da suka gabata, amma a yanzu mai kafa Tesla yana da alama yana da nisa game da tattalin arziki fiye da waɗanda ke cikin gwamnati da kuma Fed.
Kwatanta wannan bayyananniyar ga wannan dozy daga mintuna na taron Fed na ƙarshe. Tabbas ya lashe Oscar a rukunin "ba ku ce ba".
(wasu mahalarta)……. sun lura cewa matsananciyar manufa na iya zama dacewa da kyau, ”in ji mintoci.
Mista Powell ya ci gaba da nuna ƙuduri don rage yawan karuwar farashin ta hanyar nuna cewa yawan rashin aikin yi, a 3.6% a watan Afrilu, na iya buƙatar tashi yayin da Fed ya rage bukatar. "Akwai wani zafi a ciki," Yace a makon jiya.
To, aƙalla ya sami wannan dama.
Ko da Pusillanimous Powell yanzu ya san cewa "dakata" ballyhooed na makon da ya gabata ba ya da wata dama.
Sake bugawa daga marubucin Page.
-
David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
Duba dukkan posts
