To, wannan bai bar kome ba ga tunanin. Rahoton CPI na Agusta, a gaskiya, ya binne ra'ayin cewa hauhawar farashin kaya yana raguwa kuma sabon "ruwan 'ya'yan itace" daga Fed yana kusa da kusurwa.
Bugu da ƙari, 16% mai aminci da aka gyara yana nufin CPI, wanda ke kawar da sauye-sauye na gajeren lokaci daga yanayin, ya bayyana a fili cewa hauhawar farashin kaya yana da karfi na tururi. Lambar Y/Y ta haura da rikodi + 7.2%.
Wannan ya ninka karatun 3.2% na Agusta 2021, kuma ya zuwa yanzu mafi girman bugawa tun lokacin da aka kafa jerin a 1985.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin 16% Gyara Ma'anar CPI, 1985-2022
Tabbas, da rahoton hauhawar farashin man fetur a watan Agusta ya fi muni, in ban da faduwar farashin man fetur tun watan Yuni. Amma duk da haka, labarin rage farashin makamashi ba shine kawai abin da ya fashe ba.
Wato, farashin man fetur ya tashi da “kamar” 26% Y/Y a watan Agusta idan aka kwatanta da wani babban kololuwar riba na 60% a watan Yuni. Duk da haka, Y/Y yana ƙaruwa a farashin kayan aikin lantarki da bututun gas don dumama gida ya ci gaba da hawa sama:
- Kayan lantarki (layin launin ruwan kasa) ya karu da kashi 15.8 a watan Agusta idan aka kwatanta da 11.1% a watan Maris;
- Farashin bututun iskar gas (layin purple) ya karu da kashi 33.0% a watan Agusta idan aka kwatanta da 21.6% a cikin Maris.
A cikin kalma, har yanzu akwai yalwar hauhawar makamashi a cikin CPI, koda kuwa farashin famfo na man fetur ya ɗauki numfashin dangi. Amma har ma a can, samun 26% na Y/Y ba daidai ba ne mai lalacewa idan ya zo ga kasafin kuɗi na iyali.
Canjin Y/Y a Farashin Man Fetur Vs. Pipeline Nat Gas Da Kayan Wutar Lantarki, Maris 2022 zuwa Agusta 2022
Hakanan ana iya lura cewa abinci yana da nauyi fiye da ninki biyu a cikin CPI tare da mai (13.5% vs, 4.9%), kuma hauhawar farashin abinci bai nuna alamar raguwa ba a cikin Agusta.
A gaskiya ma, watan Agusta Y/Y riba na 11.4% ya ninka fiye da sau uku a shekarar da ta gabata riba (3.7%) kuma mafi girma a cikin 43 shekaru. Dole ne ku koma kasuwannin kayayyaki masu ruri na 1979 don nemo daidai gwargwado akan kasafin abinci na gida.
Canjin Y/Y A CPI Don Abinci, 1979-2022
Bugu da ƙari, lokacin da kuka duba ƙarƙashin kaho, a bayyane yake cewa hauhawar farashin abinci har yanzu yana da haɓakar haɓakawa. Wancan ne saboda ƙasƙanci na abinci-ba-da-gida (aka gidajen cin abinci) ya shigo daidai 8.0% a watan Agusta sabanin ja zafi 13.6% riba a farashin kantin kayan miya (abinci a gida).
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, farashin menu na gidan abinci ba da daɗewa ba zai cim ma farashin abinci na ƙasa kamar yadda layin baki na abinci ke wakilta; kuma a saman wannan ya ta'allaka ne da ƙarin matsin lamba na hauhawar albashin gidan abinci cikin sauri.
Ƙarar Y/Y a cikin Abincin-Ba-da-Gida-Da-Gida vs. Abinci A Gida, 2015-2022
A zahiri, matsin farashin albashi a cikin otal, gidan abinci da masana'antar sabis masu alaƙa sun kasance masu ban tsoro, suna tashi akan adadin lambobi biyu, kuma yanzu sun kai matakin sama da duk wani abin da aka rubuta a cikin shekaru 15 da suka gabata. A ƙarshe, waɗannan farashin za su shiga cikin farashin menu da ƙimar ɗaki, ko kuma za a yi asarar tattalin arziƙi a cikin Sashin Nishaɗi & Baƙi.
Canjin Y/Y A Matsakaicin Samun Sa'a na Sa'a don Nishaɗi & Ma'aikatan Baƙi, 2007-2022
Haka kuma gidajen cin abinci, mashaya da otal-otal ba su ne kawai sassan sabis da ke nuna haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba. Don ayyuka gaba ɗaya (wanda ke lissafin kashi 61% na CPI), ribar Y/Y na Agusta ya kasance 6.8%, wanda ke nuna matsayi mafi girma tun Satumba 1982.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, ɓangaren hannun dama na ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa yana ba da wata alama cewa manyan direbobin CPI—ayyukan cikin gida—sun kusa yin mirgina kowane lokaci nan ba da jimawa ba. A watan Agustan da ya gabata, a zahiri, ayyukan CPI suna gudana a kawai 3.0% akan tsarin Y / Y, wanda ya haɓaka zuwa 4.6% ta Janairu kuma yanzu yana tura 7.0%.
Canjin Y/Y A CPI don Sabis, 1982-2022
Lallai, lokacin da aka duba shi azaman gudummawa ga babban canjin CPI, matakin haɓakar hauhawar sabis yana bayyana a fili. Rabon jimillar ribar CPI da aka danganta ga farashin sabis yanzu yana ƙaruwa tsawon watanni kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin mashaya shuɗi a ƙasa.
Rabon Gudunmawa zuwa Babban Layin CPI ta Rukunin Samfura, 2017-2022
A ƙarshe, CPI na watan Agusta ya sake tunatar da gudummawar matsuguni da hauhawar farashin haya ga hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a yanzu. Wannan ƙaramin juzu'in ya karu da kashi 6.3% a cikin watan Agusta-fiye da ninki biyu yanayin yanayin sa na farko-kuma a zahiri ya haɓaka daga watannin da suka gabata.
Canjin Y/Y don CPI don Matsuguni, 2018-2022
Don haka ga masu siyan dip, mu ce ku zama baƙonmu. Kawai ci gaba da jingina ga ra'ayoyin imani cewa za a shawo kan hauhawar farashi nan da nan, an kauce wa mummunan koma bayan tattalin arziki don haka Fed ya sami 'yanci don dakatarwa, sannan sauƙi.
Amma gaskiyar ita ce, rahoton CPI na Talata ya lalata ra'ayin cewa Fed zai dakata nan ba da jimawa ba. A gaskiya ma, ban da farashin abinci da makamashi maras ƙarfi, abin da ake kira core CPI ya tashi 0.6%, wanda idan ya ci gaba zai zama adadin shekara-shekara a sama. 7%.
Wannan ya fi kowane lokaci daga 1991 zuwa annoba; kuma shi ne abin da masu zane-zane a ginin Eccles ke kallo kamar shaho.
An sake buga shi daga DavidStockmansCorner
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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