Me kuke tsammani? A cewar Joseph Biden, kamar yadda aka isar da shi ta hanyar teleprompter, mun riga mun fito fili:
"A'a," In ji Biden lokacin da Jake Tapper na CNN ya tambaye shi ko ya kamata Amurkawa su shirya don koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Shugaban ya kara da cewa "har yanzu hakan bai faru ba." “Ba na jin za a samu koma bayan tattalin arziki. Idan haka ne, zai zama koma bayan tattalin arziki kadan. Wato za mu yi ƙasa kaɗan.”
A'a, ba ma kusa ba. Mummunan hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da manyan bankunan tsakiya da na'urar yakin Washington suka yi a duniya a yanzu sun shiga cikin zurfafa da zai bukaci abin da Sakatariyar Baitulmali ta Shugaba Eisenhower a ranar da ake kira " koma bayan tattalin arziki "don kawo shi a diddige.
Na yau Rahoton PPI don Satumba ya kamata ya cire duk wani dalili na shakka. Wato, Fed ya haɓaka yawan riba ta hanyar maki 300 a cikin watanni shida da suka gabata, duk da haka matsalolin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ke tattare a cikin ƙimar farashin mai samarwa ba su ma tashi ba.
A gaskiya ma, abin da ake kira "kumburi na ainihi" don kayan da aka gama da abinci da makamashi sun shigo 8.4% Y/Y. Wannan shine mafi girman matakin tun Yuli 1981.
Ee, ana gudanar da manufofin kuɗi don yin aiki tare da lag. Amma har yanzu babu wata hanyar da za a karanta ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa kuma a kammala cewa Fed yana kusa da za a yi a cikin yaƙin neman zaɓe. A zahiri, daga ƙasa (Janairu 1976) zuwa saman (Afrilu 1980) na sake zagayowar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na 1970s, haɓakar ainihin PPI ya kai. 600 maki tushe (@5.0% zuwa @11.0%).
Sabanin haka, daga ƙananan a cikin Fabrairu 2020 zuwa Satumba 2022, ainihin PPI ya haɓaka ta 740 maki tushe (daga 1.0% zuwa 8.4%) akan tsarin Y/Y. Haka kuma, ya ɗauki watanni 31 kawai kafin ya faru idan aka kwatanta da watanni 51 yayin zagayowar 1976-1980.
Don haka abin da muke da shi shine kishiyar hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta Powell. Muna magana ne game da abin da ake kira core index a nan, don haka ban da mafi munin sake zagayowar abinci da makamashi.
A kasa, don haka, wannan hauhawar farashin kaya yana da haɗari, yana tattare kuma ba za a iya kawar da shi cikin sauƙi ba, ko da ta hanyar abin al'ajabi na faduwar farashin man fetur ko kayan abinci.
Fihirisar Farashi na Mai samarwa don Ƙarshen Abinci da Makamashi, 1976-2022
A cikin wannan mahallin, yana buƙatar tunawa da abin da ya faru a ƙarshe lokacin da Fed ya fuskanci karuwar ma'auni na 600+ a cikin ainihin kumbura na PPI: Wato, Volcker ya haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin Tarayya ta hanyar. 1400 abubuwan tushe, ba kawai 300 ba; kuma an kwashe tsawon shekaru shida kafin daga bisani ya dawo da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a duniya.
Tabbas, ba mu da masaniya game da girman girman da tsawon lokacin da Fed zai buƙaci kawo hauhawar farashi a ƙarƙashin iko yayin wannan sake zagayowar. Amma tabbas zai yi nisa, da nisa fiye da maki 300 kuma za a yada ciwon a cikin shekaru, ba watanni ba, kamar yadda ya kasance a yau.
Adadin Kuɗi na Fed, Janairu 1976 zuwa Agusta 1981
A dalilin da ya sa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya zama mai yuwuwa a lokacin Volcker shi ne hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya shiga cikin tattalin arziki, ma'ana cewa irin koma bayan tattalin arzikin da Joe Biden ke yi a jiya bai kusan kai ga aikin ba.
Gaskiyar ita ce, muna da nunin tarihin gobara mai rai game da dalilin da yasa begen "saukarwa mai laushi" na Fed, permabulls da taron Biden abin ban mamaki ne. Muna magana ne game da gaskiyar cewa Volcker ya yi injiniyan ƙaramin koma bayan tattalin arziki a cikin bazara na 1980, amma bai sanya hanu a cikin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa ta layin shuɗi, ainihin GDP ya kai kololuwa a cikin Q1 1980 sannan ya ƙi zuwa Q3 1980 yayin ƙaramin koma bayan tattalin arzikin Volcker. A cikin wannan tazarar kashi biyu cikin huɗu na “ƙasasshe da gajere,” GDP na ainihi ya yi kwangila da kawai 2.2%. Amma hauhawar farashin kaya (layin launin ruwan kasa) kawai ya ci gaba da hawa sama, yana tashi a cikin adadin shekara-shekara 9.5% a lokacin lokaci.
Wato, alfadarin yana buƙatar 2X4 mai ƙarfi tsakanin idanu, maganin da Volcker ya gane ba da daɗewa ba.
GDP na gaske da Core PPI, Q4-1979-Q4 1980.
Zagaye na biyu na maganin hana hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Volcker ya ɗauki wani yanki daga ainihin fitarwa - wannan lokacin 2.6% daga kololuwar Q3 1981 zuwa ƙasan Q4 1982. Duk da haka, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya yi taurin kai ga magungunan koma bayan tattalin arziki, yana tashi a a 5.3% adadin shekara a lokacin raguwar kashi biyar cikin hudu.
GDP na ainihi da Core PPI, Q3 1981 zuwa Q4 1982
Bugu da ƙari, tasirin kasuwar aiki ya kasance mai tsanani. A tsawon lokacin koma bayan tattalin arziki sau biyu, yawan rashin aikin yi na U-3 ya tashi daga 6.0% a watan Agustan 1979, lokacin da Volcker ya karbi ragamar ginin Eccles, zuwa 10.8% a kasa na Disamba 1982.
Hakazalika, adadin marasa aikin yi ya kusan ninka sau biyu a wannan lokacin, wanda ya haura daga miliyan 6.3 zuwa miliyan 12.1. Don haka, kawar da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki wanda ya shiga cikin haɗin kai-farashin albashi bai yi kama da koma bayan tattalin arziki na Joe Biden ba, ko kuma "saukarwa mai laushi" wanda bijimai na Wall Street ba su daina yin cinikin ba.
Yawan Rashin Aikin Yi Da Matsayin Rashin Aikin yi, Agusta 1979 zuwa Janairu 1983
Kamar yadda ya faru, ainihin hauhawar farashin PPI bai dawo zuwa yankin 2.00% ba har sai Q4 1983. Wato, ya ɗauki Volcker koma bayan tattalin arziki biyu da shekaru huɗu don kokawa da ainihin ƙimar PPI zuwa ga abin da Fed ta yanzu ake nufi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Ta kowace ma'anar kalmar, wannan ba "gajere bane kuma mara zurfi."
Canjin Y/Y a Core PPI, 1976 zuwa 1983
Lokacin da aka faɗi komai kuma aka yi, nasarar Volcker na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na shekarun 1970 ya zo da tsadar farashi ga macro-econonomy saboda babu wata hanya da za a iya shigar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
A zahiri, ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa yana sanya farashin koma bayan tattalin arziki sau biyu a sarari kamar rana: A zahiri, ainihin GDP na dala tiriliyan 6.82 a Q4 1979, lokacin da Volcker ya jefa kan birki na kuɗi, har yanzu yana kan dala tiriliyan 6.81 ta Q4 1982, lokacin da tattalin arzikin ya faɗi ƙasa. Wato, shekaru uku na ci gaban sifiri a cikin ainihin fitarwa.
Amma duk da haka, ainihin PPI-wanda ke gudana ƙasa da CPI-har yanzu yana kan 4.7% a Q4 1982. Saboda haka, Volcker bai sami kuɗin kuɗin Fed a ƙarƙashin 6.0% har zuwa Oktoba 1986 ba.
Canjin Y/Y A Mahimmin PPI Da Matsayin GDP na Gaskiya, Q4 1979 zuwa Q4 1982
Ba lallai ba ne a ce, zamanin Volcker ya tabbatar da cewa "stagflation" dabba ce mai taurin kai da zarar ta shiga cikin tsarin farashin tattalin arziki. Shi ya sa sanarwar yau daga Pepsi yakamata ta sami kalmar ƙarshe.
Babban abin sha mai laushi da abun ciye-ciye ya ce ana sa ran samun karuwar kudaden shiga na 2022 da kashi 12% a bayan karuwar kashi 17% a matsakaicin farashi a duk fadin samfurin sa!
A bayyane yake lissafin yana magana da kansa, kodayake Pepsi a fahimta ya nemi ya juyar da raguwar 5% mai ma'ana a matsayin "ɗan raguwar raguwa" a cikin ƙimar tallace-tallace gabaɗaya,
A takaice, mummunan stagflation yana nan. Tun da Fed ɗin za a kulle shi a cikin yaƙi don daidaita farashin ƙimar daidaitattun kamar yadda ainihin fitarwa ya ragu na tsawon watanni da shekaru masu zuwa, muna da matukar shakkar cewa za a siffanta tattalin arzikin da za a yi rikodin akan agogon Joe Biden a cikin littattafan tarihi a matsayin "koma bayan tattalin arziki kadan kadan.”
An rubuta shi daga StockmansContraCorner
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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