A cikin 2021, an cika mu da abubuwan gani da ke nuna mana yadda tasirin rigakafin mRNA ke yaƙi da mutuwa daga Covid. Mun ga, alal misali, cewa jadawali na mutuwar Covid na waɗanda suka kammala ka'idar kashi 2 ya yi ƙasa da na waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba. Don ƙarfafa batu, an nuna mana daidaitaccen tsari a tsakanin ƙungiyoyin shekaru ko bayan daidaitawar shekaru.
Mafi yawan wannan mafarki ne. A lokacin, ba su nuna kwatancen zane-zane don ba Covid mutuwa. Idan sun yi, da mun gani cewa wadanda aka yi wa allurar su ma sun yi kyau ba Covid mace-mace. Tabbas, babu wanda yake tsammanin waɗannan alluran rigakafin za su hana mutuwa daga cutar kansa, cututtukan zuciya, bugun jini, da sauransu.
The karya-ingancin allurar rigakafin Covid na mutuwa daga abubuwan da ba su da alaƙa ba sabon kallo ba ne. Irin wannan nau'in rashin inganci an gano shi tuntuni don maganin mura. Ana kiransa "sakamakon lafiyayyen rigakafi." Don dalilai daban-daban, waɗanda ba su da alaƙa da allurar rigakafin, mutanen da aka yi wa alurar riga kafi suna da ingantacciyar lafiya ta asali (a matsakaita) fiye da mutanen da ba su da, sabili da haka, ba su da yuwuwar mutuwa daga “komai,” gami da mura da Covid. Alurar riga kafi ko a'a, da sun sami ƙarancin mutuwar Covid fiye da takwarorinsu waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba.
Lokacin da muka yi ƙoƙarin ƙididdige tasirin rigakafin Covid (ko mura), tasirin rigakafin lafiya ya zama ingantaccen rigakafin bias, tushen murdiya wanda dole ne a cire. (A akasin haka, za mu iya kira shi "rashin lafiya marar lafiya" son zuciya.) Bincike kan wannan batu ya kasance mai banƙyama, duk da haka. Masana'antar harhada magunguna ko jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a ba su da sha'awar gano cewa alluran rigakafi na yau da kullun ba su da tasiri kamar yadda suke da'awar, ko watakila ba su da tasiri kwata-kwata.
A kwanan nan binciken daga Jamhuriyar Czech ya ba da gudummawa mai mahimmanci ga wallafe-wallafen kimiyya game da rigakafin Covid da ingantaccen tasirin rigakafin. Na farko, marubutan sun lura da abin da ke faruwa a wata ƙasa, suna ba da tallafi ga yanayin duniya. Na biyu, sun ba da hujja bayyananniya cewa waɗanda suka zaɓi (ko aka tilasta musu) don a yi musu rigakafin sun fi koshin lafiya. Na uku, sun nuna cewa lamarin ya daidaita tare da jerin allurai, kamar yadda ya bayyana a cikin. UK data don ƙarin allurai. Wadanda suka ci gaba zuwa kashi na gaba sun fi lafiya fiye da wadanda ba su yi ba. A ƙarshe, suna nuna cewa tsarin da aka lura a cikin bayanan su za a iya sake yin su ta hanyar simulators lokacin da allurar rigakafi ba ta da wani tasiri kuma lafiyayyen maganin rigakafi ne kawai ke aiki. Ya dace a karanta takarda a cikakke, ko kai masanin kimiyya ne ko a'a.
Menene aka yi a cikin binciken?
Marubutan sun ƙididdige ƙimar duk abin da ke haifar da mutuwa a cikin lokutan raƙuman ruwa na Covid kuma a cikin lokutan ƙarancin (kusan babu) mutuwar Covid. Na ƙarshe shine ainihin ƙimar mutuwar ba ta Covid, wanda ke nufin cewa duk wani "sakamako" na allurar rigakafin Covid a cikin waɗannan lokutan sakamako ne na ɓarna. Yana da lafiyayyen maganin alurar rigakafi kaɗai. A kowane lokaci, sun kwatanta adadin mace-mace tsakanin waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba da kuma ƙungiyoyin mutanen da aka yi wa allurar.
Zan tattauna wani muhimmin batu: da karya-Tasirin ka'idar kashi 2, farawa makonni huɗu bayan kashi na biyu lokacin da aka ɗauki mutane da cikakken kariya. Don mayar da hankali kan waccan rukunin tare da waɗanda ba a yi musu alluran rigakafi ba, na ƙara kibiyoyi masu ƙima zuwa Hoto 2. Lura cewa waɗannan sanduna suna nuna ƙima, ba ƙidaya ba, na mace-mace a cikin lokaci tare da ƙarancin mutuwar Covid (koren kore). Hakanan, kodayake waɗannan mutuwar daga kowane dalili, 99.7% ba su da alaƙa da Covid. Don haka, ana iya la'akari da ƙimar mutuwar ba ta Covid, kuma abin da zan kira su ke nan.
A cikin kowane rukuni na shekaru, adadin waɗanda ba na Covid-Covid ba a cikin allurar rigakafin (rawaya) yadda ya kamata ya yi ƙasa da adadin waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba (baƙar fata). Tabbas, wannan mummunan tasirin maganin alurar riga kafi ne. Wannan shine tasirin rigakafin lafiya, ko son zuciya lokacin ƙoƙarin ƙididdige tasirin gaske game da mutuwar Covid.
Marubutan cikin kirki sun ba da bayanan su, wanda aka taƙaita a cikin tebur na don lokacin ƙarancin Covid.
Kamar yadda kuke gani daga lissafin, “bangarori na son zuciya” (jere na ƙarshe) shine kawai juzu'i na tasirin alurar riga kafi. Ya gaya mana nawa ne yuwuwar waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba za su mutu “gaba ɗaya,” idan aka kwatanta da waɗanda suka kammala ka’idar kashi 2 aƙalla makonni 4 da suka gabata. A bisa ka'ida, ya kamata a kira shi son zuciya gyara factor, amma za mu takaita shi.
Tebuna na gaba yana kwatanta sakamako daga Jamhuriyar Czech zuwa bayanai daga Birtaniya da kuma Amurka a cikin rukunin shekaru masu kama da (ƙididdigar lissafi na daga bayanan da ake samu).
Musamman ma, abubuwan son zuciya a cikin bayanai daga ƙasashe da al'adu daban-daban sun bambanta a cikin kunkuntar kewayo: tsakanin 2 zuwa 3.5. Yana da ƙasa a cikin mafi yawan shekarun ƙungiyar amma har yanzu yana da aƙalla 2. Gabaɗaya, waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba sun fi mutuwa sau biyu zuwa uku fiye da waɗanda aka yi wa cikakken rigakafin.
Wasu bayanai sun nuna cewa gibin ya ragu a kan lokaci (saboda wadanda ba a yi musu allurar rigakafi ba sun fi "koshin lafiya" yayin da lokaci ya ci gaba kuma wasu marasa lafiya sun mutu), amma ya dauki watanni, ba 'yan makonni ba. Lokacin da aka gabatar da kashi na uku, wanda ya fi koshin lafiya ya koma rukunin kashi uku, ya bar ƙungiyar marasa lafiya na "kwayoyi biyu kawai." Sakamakon haka, ƙungiyar masu kashi biyu a yanzu sun bayyana suna da mafi girma mace-mace fiye da marasa alurar riga kafi. An yi kuskuren fassara wannan abin lura a matsayin shaidar mace-mace masu alaƙa da allurar (wanda babu shakka ya faru).
Don cire kyamar rigakafin rigakafin lafiya, muna haɓaka ƙimar rashin son rai na mutuwar Covid ta hanyar nuna son kai, kamar yadda aka bayyana wasu wurare. Misali, idan rabon son rai na mutuwar Covid shine 0.4 (60% "tasirin allurar rigakafi") kuma yanayin son zuciya shine 2.5, daidaitaccen tasiri akan mutuwar Covid shine 0.4 x 2.5 = 1, wanda shine tasirin rigakafin 0%.
(Waɗanda ke da ilimin lissafi za su gane cewa ana iya ƙididdige gyaran kuma kamar haka: rabon ƙima na mutuwar Covid wanda aka raba ta rabon ƙima na rashin mutuwar Covid.)
Zan ƙarasa da wani misali na rashin lafiyar allurar rigakafi da ingantaccen tasiri bayan gyara.
A binciken na tsoffin sojojin Amurka sun gabatar da jadawali na rayuwa na cikakken alurar riga kafi da tsofaffi waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba bayan gwajin PCR (hoton da ke ƙasa). Zan yi la'akari da mutuwa bayan ingantaccen PCR a matsayin "mutuwar Covid" da kuma mutuwar bayan PCR mara kyau a matsayin "mutuwar ba-Covid." Ƙidaya ce kawai, ba shakka, amma wannan shine abin da za mu iya samu daga takarda don bambance tsakanin nau'in mutuwa biyu. Nazarin allurar rigakafin Covid ba kasafai ake ba da rahoton bayanai game da mutuwar Covid-19 ta matsayin rigakafin ba, don haka sau da yawa dole ne mu samo irin waɗannan bayanan daga duk abin da aka bayar.
Na gani na kimanta haɗarin mutuwa a maki uku, inda yuwuwar rayuwa don kwatantawa ta biyu ta kusa da alamomin akan axis Y (2% tazara). An taƙaita ƙididdige ƙididdiga na a cikin tebur mai cike da aiki da ke ƙasa.
Kamar yadda kuke gani, gyaran ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙiyayyar alluran rigakafi ya canza ƙididdiga na tasiri daga kusan 70% zuwa kusan 10%. Kuma wannan ba shine kawai son zuciya ba a cikin binciken lura na rigakafin Covid. Bambance-bambancen kuskuren dalilin mutuwa shine wani son zuciya mai karfi. Shin wani tasiri zai kasance idan za a iya cire duk son zuciya? An ceci rayuka da gaske ta wadannan alluran rigakafi?
Bari in ƙare da sharhi ba akan allurar Covid ba, amma akan allurar mura.
Idan ka kalli CDC na Amurka yanar, za ku sami bayanai kan tasirin cutar mura a kowace shekara. Yawancin lokaci, ba ya wuce 50% a cikin tsofaffi (rabin haɗari na 0.5). Ya zuwa yanzu, ya kamata ku iya ƙididdige ingantaccen tasiri, a ce, tare da ƙima na 2.
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Dokta Eyal Shahar farfesa ne a fannin kiwon lafiyar jama'a a fannin cututtukan cututtuka da kididdiga. Binciken nasa yana mayar da hankali ne akan ilimin cututtuka da kuma hanyoyin. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, Dr. Shahar ya ba da gudummawa sosai ga hanyoyin bincike, musamman a fannin zane-zane da kuma son zuciya.
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