Na dade ina sake duba shaidar shaidar farkon yaduwar cutar a cikin 2019 kuma na farko da aka tabbatar da lamuran kuma na isa ga abin da nake tsammanin shine mafi kusantar yanayin al'amuran yadda kwayar cutar ta bulla.
A takaice (ish) labari, da alama kwayar cutar tana yaduwa a duniya a rabin na biyu na Nuwamba 2019. Abin da ke da wuyar fahimta shi ne dalilin da ya sa, idan a cikin kasashe a duk faɗin duniya a lokacin hunturu, fashewar fashewar ta fara ne kawai a cikin Fabrairu da Maris 2020.
Idan aka sake duba rahotannin bullowar kwayar cutar daki-daki, da alama hakan ya faru ne saboda tafiyar kwayar cutar tun daga farkon kaka na 2019 zuwa barkewar fashewa a farkon 2020 ya faru ne a hankali da tabarbarewar hanya fiye da yadda muke tsammani daga saukin fahimtar ƙwayoyin cuta. Wannan ba don cutar ba ta kasance a cikin ƙasashe kafin haifar da fashewar fashewar a can - wannan shine zato mai sauƙi wanda bayanan ya sabawa - amma saboda ba koyaushe kwayar cutar ke haifar da fashewar fashewar ba lokacin da take akwai.
Kwayar cuta mai kama da SARS da alama ta fara kamuwa da mutane a ƙarshen Oktoba 2019. Wannan yana iya yiwuwa a Wuhan. Ana iya ba da shawarar cewa idan kwayar cutar ta yadu a duniya a cikin Nuwamba 2019 to da ta fara ko'ina kuma gaskiyar cewa an fara gano ta a Wuhan ba ya nuna komai game da inda ta fara.
Koyaya, ya nuna cewa barkewar cutar a watan Disamba a Wuhan inda aka fara gano ta ita ce mafi girma har zuwa wannan lokacin. Bugu da kari, wata mai zuwa Wuhan ita ce wuri na farko da aka fara samun barkewar fashewar da ta sanya haraji kan ayyukan kiwon lafiya, wasu makonni kafin ko'ina. Kasancewar ta kasance gaba da lankwasa a cikin waɗannan manyan barkewar wata alama ce mai ƙarfi cewa kwayar cutar ta kasance a can kuma ta fara bulla a can.
Kwayoyin halitta Agogon karatu, wanda ke yin nazari akan tsarin kwayoyin halitta na farkon lokuta don ƙididdige lokacin da kakanninsu na baya-bayan nan ya kusa, yakan sanya bullar cutar a ƙarshen Oktoba ko farkon Nuwamba, wanda ya yi daidai da yaduwar duniya zuwa ƙarshen Nuwamba.
A kasar Sin, kuma leaked rahoton gwamnati A farkon lokuta a Wuhan an gano marasa lafiya tara a asibiti a cikin Nuwamba 2019 tare da abin da aka tabbatar da shi a matsayin COVID-19 (alamar farko ta ranar 17 ga Nuwamba), kodayake ba a taɓa haɗa waɗannan zuwa jimillar hukuma ba. A binciken Har ila yau, ya yi iƙirarin cewa ba a sami wani maganin rigakafi ba a cikin masu ba da gudummawar jini na Wuhan a watan Satumba zuwa Disamba 2019, kodayake ba a san yadda abin yake dogara ba.
A Brazil, Samfurin ruwan sharar gida na banki Ya kasance mai inganci har zuwa Nuwamba 27th 2019, yana nuna gagarumin yaduwar cutar ta SARS-CoV-2 a ƙarshen wata. Abin sha'awa, samfurori daga Italiya a cikin wani binciken daban bai yi kyau ba sai ranar 18 ga Disamba. Babu tabbataccen ruwan sharar da ya bayyana a baya fiye da wannan a ko'ina (ajiye don rashin daidaituwa ga Barcelona a cikin Maris 2019 wanda aka yi imani da cewa a karya tabbatacce).
Gwajin najasa a cikin Florianópolis, Brazil don SARS-CoV-2 RNA
A Ingila, Nazarin REACT na Imperial ya gwada kusan mutane 150,000 don rigakafin rigakafi a farkon 2021 kuma ya tambayi waɗanda suka gwada inganci lokacin da suka tuna da alamun cutar. Wannan ya haifar da jadawali mai zuwa.
Ana iya ganin wani sanannen tashin hankali a cikin alamun bayyanar cututtuka daga ƙarshen Nuwamba 2019 zuwa matakin daidaitacce wanda ke ci gaba a cikin hunturu. Barkewar guguwar farko a karshen watan Fabrairun 2020 kuma a bayyane take. Wannan jadawali yana kwatanta da kyau yadda kwayar cutar za ta iya yaduwa na tsawon watanni a ƙaramin matakin (watanni uku a wannan yanayin), gami da lokacin mura na hunturu, kafin fashewar fashewar ta faru, da alama ba ta da shuɗi.
Ba mu da kyawawan bayanai daga Amurka game da yaɗuwar da wuri saboda ƙasar ta kasa yin nazari akai-akai kan samfuran da aka adana na ruwan datti ko daga mutane, sai dai guda ɗaya. Red Cross antibody binciken wanda ya samo ƙwayoyin rigakafi a tsakiyar Disamba 2019 amma bai kalli samfuran farko ba ko tabbatar da gwaji don RNA mai hoto.
Koyaya, ba a sami ƙarancin rahotannin labarai daga Amurka waɗanda suka ba da labarin wasu mutane da yawa waɗanda suka kamu da rashin lafiya mai kama da Covid a cikin Nuwamba 2019 kuma daga baya sun gwada ingancin kwayoyin rigakafin Covid (lokacin da ba su yi rashin lafiya a cikin ɗan lokaci ba).
Waɗannan mutane sun haɗa da Michael Melham na New Jersey, wanda ya ba da rahoton kamuwa da cutar tare da wasu da yawa a wani taro a kusa da Nuwamba 21st 2019; Uf Tukel, wanda ya ba da rahoton kamuwa da cutar a Florida tare da wasu 10 a ƙarshen Nuwamba 2019; Stephen Taylor da matarsa, sun kamu da cutar a Texas a watan Nuwamba 2019; kuma Jim Rust, kamuwa da cuta a Nebraska a wannan watan. Bill Rice, Jr. yana da tattara tare labaran watsa labarai na waɗannan shari'o'in Amurka na farko da aka tabbatar da rigakafin mutum. Wani abin lura cewa babu daya daga cikinsu da ya yi ikirarin ya kamu da cutar kafin watan Nuwamba.
Wannan shaida na ƙarshen Nuwamba ya bazu a China, Brazil, Ingila, da Amurka, ina tsammanin, mai gamsarwa ne sosai; ko da ɗaya ko biyu daga cikin shari'o'in sun zama kuskure, ba na jin da alama duka za su kasance. Hakanan sun yi daidai da ƙididdiga na binciken agogon kwayoyin halitta da aka ambata.
Wannan shaida ta nuna cewa kwayar cutar ba ta yaduwa a duniya da wuri kafin wannan. Wannan ya dogara ne akan abubuwan da ba su da kyau a cikin nazarin ruwan sharar gida, matakan da ba su da kyau a cikin binciken Imperial, rashin ba da rahoton rashin lafiya na Amirkawa, da rashin marasa lafiya a China. Nazarin da ya bayyana ya nuna farkon yaɗuwar duniya fiye da wannan na iya kasancewa saboda ƙetare-ɓangarorin ƙwayoyin cuta ko gurɓata gwajin PCR mai girma.
Wannan yana ba mu damar ƙaddamar da cewa kwayar cutar tana yaduwa a ƙananan matakai a duniya zuwa ƙarshen Nuwamba 2019, amma mai yiwuwa ba a daɗe da wannan ba. Me ya faru kuma?
An fara barkewar cutar a kasuwar Huanan a ranar 1 ga Disamba - wannan ita ce farkon alamar ranar farko a cikin rukunin farko na masu cutar Covid da aka tabbatar, wanda aka fara kwantar da shi a asibiti a ranar 16 ga Disamba. Wannan annobar da alama ta fi sauran bullar cutar girma har zuwa wannan lokacin. Ya zuwa ranar 2 ga Janairu, marasa lafiya 41 sun kasance tabbatar kamar yadda aka shigar da shi a asibiti tare da ingantaccen gwajin Covid tare da ciwon huhu da siffar CT scan na kirji; shida daga cikinsu sun rasu.
Wannan gungu na asibitoci ne ya kai ga gano kwayar cutar, a kalla tara samfurori daga wadannan majiyyatan likitocin ne suka aiko da su don nazarin kwayoyin halitta tsakanin 24 ga Disamba da Disamba 31st 2019. Gano kwayar cutar a cikin barkewar kasuwar rigar don haka ya zama sakamakon kai tsaye sakamakon tsananin waccan barkewar - ya haifar da karin asibitoci fiye da sauran barkewar cutar har zuwa lokacin kuma ya haifar da adadin likitocin da kansu don aika samfurori don ganowa. Wannan ya sa a zahiri ba makawa za a gano shi a lokacin barkewar wannan cuta.
Wannan ya ce, barkewar ta yi kadan idan aka kwatanta da yawancin raƙuman ruwa da muka gani tun daga shekarar 2020, kuma hakika idan aka kwatanta da abin da ya faru a China a wata mai zuwa. Duban yanayin mutuwar Covid-2020 da aka bayar a China a cikin 20 yana nuna cewa fashewar fashewar a yankin ba ta fara da gaske ba har sai kwanakin farko na Janairu (ta hanyar kirgawa kusan kwanaki XNUMX).
Wannan na iya bayyana dalilin da yasa aka fara rashin tabbas game da ko ana yada kwayar cutar daga mutum zuwa mutum, yayin da a ranar 14 ga watan Janairu aka kara fitowa fili cewa an samu fashewar fashewar a karon farko. Hakanan mai yiwuwa amincewa da wannan fashewar fashewar ne ya sa hukumomin China suka sanya takunkumi kan Wuhan daga ranar 23 ga Janairu.
Abin ban mamaki, fashewar fashewar watan Janairu a lardin Hubei ba ta sake yin irinsa ba a wasu sassan kasar Sin, wadanda kwayar cutar ba ta damu da su ba a wannan lokacin. Maimakon haka, wuri na gaba don ganin fashewar fashewar shine Koriya ta Kudu, bayan wata daya a watan Fabrairu, kuma an sake yin iyakacin iyaka ga birni ɗaya, Daegu. Ya kasance a kan sikelin kama da barkewar Wuhan tare da adadin wadanda suka mutu iri daya.
Na gaba shi ne juyowar Italiya da Iran ta fuskanci barkewar fashewar abubuwa, tun daga tsakiyar watan Fabrairu. Barkewar cutar a Italiya har yanzu an takaita shi ne a wani yanki na kasar, duk da cewa girman ta ya wuce duk wani abin da aka gani tukuna, kuma barkewar Iran ta kasance mai saurin gaske. irin girman. Sa'an nan kuma ya bi New York da arewa maso gabashin Amurka, da kuma Ingila, Faransa da yawancin Yammacin Turai (duk da cewa ba Gabashin Turai ba ko yawancin sauran Amurka). Duk waɗannan barkewar sun kasance yafi kusa zuwa mafi girman ma'aunin Italiyanci fiye da ma'aunin Sinawa da Koriya ta Kudu. Sauran wuraren sun ci gaba da bazuwar ƙananan matakan har sai sun sami fashewar tasu ta farko daga baya a cikin 2020, ko a wasu lokuta a cikin 2021 ko ma 2022.
Abin da ya kama ni game da wannan shi ne yadda girma da girman barkewar cutar ya karu a mataki-mataki tsakanin Nuwamba 2019 da Fabrairu 2020. Yaduwa a cikin Nuwamba 2019 ya kasance a duniya amma ƙarancin matakin. A watan Disamba, barkewar kasuwar rigar ta Wuhan ta dauki matakai sosai, wanda ya haifar da adadin asibitoci da kuma gano cutar. Sannan a cikin Janairu, Wuhan ta sami fashewar fashewar Covid ta farko da yawan mace-mace. Kuma a cikin watan Fabrairu manyan raƙuman ruwa na Turai da na Amurka sun fara tashi, suna haɓaka ma'auni da yawa, inda galibi ya kasance. (Omicron, lokacin da ya zo a ƙarshen 2021, ya haɓaka girman barkewar cutar har ma da ƙari amma ya yanke adadin mutuwa.)
Wannan yana ba da, na yi imani, cikakken hoto na yadda kwayar cutar ta bulla - ta hanyar tafiya ta mataki-mataki zuwa babban annoba da ta fi girma daga farkon ƙarancin matakin yaduwa a cikin Nuwamba. Wannan motsi shine, ina tsammanin, sakamakon sauye-sauyen kwayoyin halitta a cikin kwayar cutar, wanda ke canza saurinsa a cikin al'ummomi da wurare daban-daban - hasashe wanda ya yi daidai da ƙarshe. nazarin agogon kwayoyin halitta.
Don haka, ina tsammanin, muna da kwarin gwiwa cewa kwayar cutar ta fara bulla a Wuhan a lokacin kaka na 2019 kuma ba kawai aka gano a can ba, kamar yadda Wuhan ta fara samun barkewar cutar a cikin Disamba da Janairu, wanda ke nuna cewa kwayar cutar ta kasance a can.
Rubuta daga DailySceptic
