Rahoton tallace-tallacen tallace-tallace na Maris ya kawo ƙarin shaida cewa Biden na $ 1.9 tiriliyan Shirin Ceto na Amurka na Maris da ya gabata, wanda ya zo sama da dala tiriliyan 4 na abubuwan da aka rarraba a baya, yana ɗaya daga cikin mafi munin matakan manufofin kasafin kuɗi na kowane lokaci.
Ko da a watan Fabrairun 2021, asusun ajiyar banki na gida yana cika da tsabar kuɗi saboda tsunami na abubuwan da suka faru a baya, da kuma tilasta wahalhalun da ake kashewa na yau da kullun na masu amfani da su a rufaffiyar gidajen abinci, mashaya, fina-finai, wuraren motsa jiki, wuraren shakatawa, otal da ƙari.
Wato, tattalin arzikin Amurka ya yi ƙasa da abin da ake kira yuwuwar GDP saboda gwamnatin da ta ba da umarnin kwangilar samar da kayayyaki, ba mai rauni na gaske ba kuma yuwuwar "buƙata." Saboda haka, babban rabon bashin da aka samu na kashi na uku na kaya kyauta shine bambaro da ya karya bayan hauhawar farashin rakumi.
A zahiri, ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa na kuɗin gida da adibas na banki (bincike, ajiyar kuɗi da lokaci) yana gaya muku duk abin da suke buƙatar sani a cikin Fabrairu 2021. Idan aka kwatanta da ci gaban Y/Y na yau da kullun na dala biliyan 400 zuwa dala biliyan 600, tsabar kuɗi na gida da adibas sun mamaye ta $ 2.4 tiriliyan a watan Fabrairun 2021 da shekarar da ta gabata.
Wato, gidaje sun riga sun shaƙu da tsabar kuɗi da kuma albarkatun da za a kashe. Don haka me yasa a cikin duniya Dems (da yawancin 'yan Republican, suma) sunyi tunanin wani $ 1400 ga kowane mutum a cikin tashin hankali da daruruwan biliyoyin SBA da ke tafiya a kusa da kuɗi ta kowace hanya?
Amsar, ba shakka, ita ce yarjejeniya ta Washington/Wall Street ba ta san komai baya ga "buƙata". Bayanan sun yi kururuwa akasin haka, ba shakka, ma'ana cewa za a iya warware matsalar tabarbarewar tattalin arziki nan take ta hanyar jefar da Dokta Fauci da kulle-kullen sa na Sintirin cutar, da umarni, da kuma tsoron Covid-19. Duk da haka sun bar Fauci don yin aikin NPIs ɗin sa na mugunta (matsalolin da ba na magunguna ba) kuma sun cika kan “buƙata” mai haɓakawa maimakon.
Canjin Y/Y A Kudin Gida Da Adadi, 2002-2021
Ba abin mamaki bane, tallace-tallacen tallace-tallace ya tashi kamar roka. Ganin cewa tallace-tallacen tallace-tallacen da aka daidaita ya karu da kawai 0.75% kowace shekara tsakanin Nuwamba 2007 pre-rikicin kololuwa da Fabrairu 2020, daga nan suka kara a wani 17.2% Adadin kowace shekara har zuwa Maris 20021. Wannan fashewa mai ban mamaki ya faru ne saboda haɗuwar daɗaɗɗa na zagaye uku a jere wanda ya kai dala tiriliyan 6 a cikin watanni 12 kacal.
Tabbas, tashoshi na kashe kuɗi na yau da kullun na sabis sun toshe sosai ta umarnin jihar - don haka duka kuɗin da aka adana daga rashin zuwa gidajen cin abinci da mashaya tare da tsunami na kayan kyauta daga Washington sun shiga cikin sayayya na Amazon da aka isar da su. kayan ciniki wanda ke gudana ta bangaren tallace-tallace.
Wato, a cikin hikimarsa Washington ta kara da yawa ga bashin jama'a don tada buƙatun siyayyar da ba za a iya biyan dillalan da ke cikin wurin da ke dogaro da sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki na ƙasashen waje ba, waɗanda Covid-Lockdowns ke rushewa. Kuma duk don manufar sanya GDP da aka ruwaito ya zama mafi girma, duk da cewa masu sintiri na ƙwayoyin cuta sun kiyaye mafi girman bangaren samar da sabis na sashin sabis a kan tabarmar.
A cikin kalma ɗaya, haɗin gwiwar gwamnati ya haifar da kwangilar "bangaren wadata" da ƙwaƙƙwaran kayan "buƙata" ba shi da kama da wauta a cikin tarihin manufofin tattalin arzikin Washington. Fashewar barna ce a cikin aji shi kaɗai, kuma ginshiƙi na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ke addabar jama'ar Amurka.
Kash, jig din ya tashi. Haɓaka tallace-tallacen tallace-tallacen da aka daidaita a cikin Maris shine ainihin 2.9% kasa Shekarar da ta gabata matakin da kuma neman za su dosa ta hanyar kudanci yayin da ainihin kudaden shiga ke raguwa kuma farashin kan shiryayye ya ci gaba da hauhawa.
Fihirisar Tallace-tallacen Kasuwancin Daidaita Kuɗi, 2007-2022
Rarrabuwa zuwa sarkar samar da kayayyaki sakamakon hauka na Washington ya bayyana sarai a cikin rabon kaya-zuwa-tallace-tallace na sashen dillali. Mahimmanci, tsunami na buƙatun kayan fatauci ya jawo kayyakin kaya daga cikin tsarin kamar guguwa mai ratsawa ta wurin shakatawar tirela.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, ƙimar ƙima-zuwa-tallace-tallace na tarihi yana cikin kewayon 1.4X zuwa 1.7X. Amma tsakanin Maris 2020 da Yuni 2020, kusan $ 84 biliyan An cire kayan kiwo daga cikin tsarin, raguwar 13%.
A lokaci guda, tallace-tallacen tallace-tallace na kan gaba zuwa sama, ma'ana cewa rabon tallace-tallacen ya ragu zuwa terra incognito. Ya zuwa Afrilu 2021 rabon ya ragu da ba a taɓa gani ba 1.07X kuma a cikin watan da ya gabata (Fabrairu) har yanzu ya tsaya a ƙasa mai ƙarancin ƙarfi 1.13X.
Jadawalin da ke ƙasa shine ginshiƙi na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a halin yanzu. Ka’idar kasuwa ce idan babu komai a kan rumbu ko a cikin rumbun ajiya, farashin ya tashi don share benaye da jawo sayan sabbin kayayyaki. Don haka har sai an dawo da rabon tarihi, farashin kiri ba zai iya daidaitawa ba.
Kayayyakin Kayayyakin Kaya-Don-Sale Ratio, 1992-2022
Wata hanyar da za a kalli hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin kayayyaki ita ce kwatanta tallace-tallacen gidajen abinci, babban aikin taron jama'a wanda Cibiyar Kula da Cututtuka ta rufe, tare da siyar da kasuwancin e-commerce, wurin da za a kashe kashe mabukaci yayin Covid.
Ba abin mamaki bane, ta hanyar Q1 2021 tallace-tallacen e-Kasuwanci ya haɓaka ta 42.4% daga matakin pre-Covid (Q4 2019), yayin da tallace-tallacen gidajen abinci ya ragu da kashi 20-30% a farkon kwanakin kulle-kullen kuma har yanzu sun kusan 5% ƙasa da matakin pre-Covid a ƙarshen Q1 2021.
A zahiri, kashe kuɗin mabukaci ya karkata kamar pretzel saboda manufofin Washington da aka ƙera waɗanda suka kasance-
- Anti-girma a bangaren samar da sabis;
- Ƙaddamar da kashe kuɗi akan buƙatun kayan ciniki.
Sakamakon, ba shakka, ya kasance kusan hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a gefen kaya, duk da cewa farashin sabis ya ragu da farko.
Ana nuna wannan jujjuyawar a cikin ginshiƙi na ƙasa. Daga 2012 zuwa Fabrairu 2020, CPI na kayayyaki masu ɗorewa akai-akai ana buga su akan ƙimar Y/Y mara kyau a cikin kewayon 1-2% (sanduna shuɗi), yayin da CPI don ayyuka (sanduna masu duhu) ke rufewa akai-akai a cikin +2.5% Y/Y kewayon.
Amma bayan Covid-Lockdowns ya buge, alamun sun juya kwatance:
- Fihirisar Farashin Sabis na Y/Y: Ya faɗi ƙasa zuwa 1.3% zuwa Janairu 2021 saboda ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ayyuka;
- Fihirisar Farashin Kaya Mai Dorewar Y/Y: Haɓaka zuwa riba mai lamba biyu a tsakiyar 2021 saboda faɗuwar buƙatu;
Canjin Y/Y a cikin CPI don Kaya Masu Dorewa Ga Sabis ɗin, 2012-2021
Hanyar da wannan bambance-bambancen kayayyaki da sabis da aka fassara zuwa hauhawar farashin ma'aikata na biyu yana da mahimmanci. A zahiri, Sinawa da sauran ma'aikata 'yan kasashen waje sun samu koma baya daga karuwar bukatar kayayyaki, yayin da ma'aikatan gida masu karancin albashi suka ji dadin karuwar albashi mai lamba biyu.
Wani abin da ya bayyana dalilin taimakawa shine tasirin kayan kyauta na Washington akan wadatar aiki. Kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa, BLS ta auna ƙarfin aiki ya ragu da ma'aikata miliyan 8.2 ko 5% a cikin Afrilu 2020 sannan kuma a hankali kawai kuma an murmure su a hankali wanda a lokacin tashin hankali na uku a cikin Maris 2021 ya kasance kusan miliyan 4 a ƙasa da matakin pre-Covid.
An bayyana dangane da abin da ake kira ƙimar shiga aikin ma'aikata, matakin 63.4% na Fabrairu 2020 har yanzu ya kasance 61.5% kawai ta Maris 2021.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, yawancin wannan raguwar ƙarfin aiki ya faru ne a ƙarshen ƙarancin albashi na kasuwar aiki. Akwai mafi ƙarancin inshorar rashin aikin yi na $600 na Washington a kowane mako tare da zagaye uku na biyan kuɗin kuzari ya kai adadin kuɗin shiga na shekara-shekara na $ 45,000-– sama da matakan da ake iya samu a fannin Nishaɗi da Baƙi, misali.
Canji A Ƙarfin Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararrun Ƙwararru Da Ƙimar Shiga, Fabrairu 2020-Maris 2021 )
Lokacin da sashen sabis na tattalin arzikin Amurka ya sake buɗewa a hankali a cikin 2021, ƙimar albashi a cikin sashin nishaɗi da baƙon baƙi ya ragu ta hanyar sau biyu. Bayan koma bayan gidan cin abinci na 2020, buƙatu ya dawo baya, duk da cewa an rage yawan ƙarfin aiki.
Dangane da haka, ƙimar albashin Y/Y ya tashi kamar roka, yana ƙaruwa 14-16% a cikin Q4 2021 lokacin da $600 a kowane mako inshorar rashin aikin yi da biyan kuɗi a ƙarshe ya tashi.
Sabanin haka, farashin albashi a masana'antu, wanda ke ƙaruwa da kusan 2-3% a kowace shekara kafin Covid-Lockdowns, ya haɓaka cikin ladabi zuwa 4-5%. Wato har yanzu tattalin arzikin Amurka ya ci gaba da yin kasa a gwiwa wajen dogaro da kai daga kasashen ketare, duk da saurin karuwar albashi da tsadar kayayyaki a tsarin samar da kayayyaki na kasar Sin ya samar da wani ma'auni.
Duk da haka, muhimmin batun shi ne cewa mawakan da ke cikin gida da kuma wanda aka haifar da jujjuyawar farashin kaya a cikin sassan hauhawar farashin kaya a cikin sassan kayayyaki na kayan aiki.
Ya kasance daidaitaccen guguwar hauhawar farashin kaya.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin Samun Sa'o'i, Nishaɗi & Baƙi Game da Masana'antu, Maris 2020 zuwa Maris 2022
Don son shakku, anan shine haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a sashin gidan abinci, wanda CPI ke bibiya a ƙarƙashin rubric Food Away From Home. Idan aka kwatanta da 2-3% Y/Y ribar na shekaru takwas kafin Fabrairu 2020, index yanzu yana tashi a wani matsayi. 7% yawan shekara.
Bugu da ƙari, yana fara hawan na ƙarshe. Wannan saboda manyan sinadarai guda biyu na tsarin farashin gidan abinci-abinci da aiki-dukkansu yanzu suna tashi akan ƙimar lambobi biyu.
Ba sai an fade ba, yanayin da ke gaba ya sha bamban da abin da aka yi a zamanin da ake kira "lowflation" kafin shekarar 2020. A takaice, wani bangare da ya kasance mai daure kai kan yawan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yanzu ya zama wani roka mai karfafa gwiwa.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin CPI Don Abinci Daga Gida, 2012-2022
A ƙarshe, yana buƙatar a lura cewa alkaluman CPI da aka ruwaito sun ragu sosai a kasuwannin duniya a duk lokacin da canjin mataki ya faru. Don kwatanta wannan, an raba CPI zuwa kwanduna biyu tare da ma'auni daban-daban na abubuwa dangane da ko ana ɗaukar su "mai sassauƙa" ko "mai ɗaure."
Misali, ana ɗaukar abinci da makamashi masu sassauƙa saboda a ƙarshe ana farashinsu akan kasuwannin gwanjon duniya. Sabanin haka, nauyin 31% na hayar ana ƙididdige shi sosai kuma yana jinkirta kasuwa da aƙalla watanni shida saboda ƙirar binciken. Don haka:
- CPI mai tsayi: 71.1% na nauyin CPI gaba ɗaya tare da sufuri, tsari da sauran abubuwan da ke lissafin 4.7%, 37.9% da 28.4% na nauyin nauyi, bi da bi;
- CPI mai sassauƙa: 28.9% na nauyin CPI gaba ɗaya tare da mota da makamashi, abinci, tufafi da sauransu suna lissafin 14.4%, 8.7%, 2.3% da 3.5% na nauyi, bi da bi.
Kamar yadda ake tsammani, tun daga Fabrairu 2020, CPI mai sassauƙa ya haɓaka kamar roka mai ƙarfi. Daga gaske a 0.0% matsakaicin karuwa na shekara-shekara tsakanin 2012 da 2019, waɗannan farashin ba su tashi ba 20% ta hanyar Y/Y.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin Madaidaicin Farashi CPI, 2012-2022
Sabanin haka, Sticky Price CPI, wanda ya kai matsakaicin a 2.5% Y/Y ya ƙaru kafin 2020, yanzu an ƙara ƙanƙantar da kai zuwa 4.5% ta hanyar Y/Y.
Amma ga abin. Abubuwan da ake kira "mai ɗaure" na CPI sannu a hankali za su kamu da hauhawar farashi, farashin kayan aiki da kuma farashin da ya wuce kima waɗanda a yanzu ke tashe ta hanyar samar da kayayyaki - haya, kayan aiki da kula da lafiya sune manyan misalai.
Mafi muni har yanzu, Fed's yana da sandar hana hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, kuma wacce ba ta son amfani da ita don fargabar cewa zai kori tattalin arzikin kasar cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Muna magana ne game da ƙimar riba, ba shakka, da sama da dala tiriliyan 87 na bashin jama'a da na masu zaman kansu waɗanda ke mamaye tattalin arzikin kamar Takobin kuɗi na Damocles.
An ba da bashin ta hanyar shekarun da suka gabata na fitar da kudi na rashin hankali, amma yanzu shine abin da yake: Wato, wani shingen da aka tsinkayi don yanke hukunci da ban mamaki na Fed anti-kumburi mataki.
Haka kuma, na karshen, bi da bi, yana nufin cewa haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da aka dasa a lokacin Covid Era kuma a yanzu yaƙin takunkumin Washington ya tsananta sosai a kan kasuwar hada-hadar kayayyaki ta duniya a cikin Bahar Maliya, kawai za a haɗe shi a cikin kwata na gaba.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin Farashin CPI, 2012-2022
A halin da ake ciki, sojojin dawakan Washington ba su kai dauki ba. A zahiri, mulkin Amurka yana gab da samun saukowa mai wahala a watan Nuwamba lokacin da Dems za su iya ficewa daga ofis, tare da barin gurguntaccen gurguzu na shekaru biyu masu zuwa, duk da tashin hankali yana ƙaruwa kuma rikicin duniya ya haifar da yakin Ukraine bai sami sakamako mai ma'ana ba.
Tabbas, kamar yadda Bill King ya lura a cikin safiya na safiya, Biden a zahiri yana nutsewa a cikin rumfunan zaɓe. Kuma gaskiyar ta kasance cewa idan ba tare da jagorancin shugaban kasa mai karfi ba, tsarin mulkin Madison na gwamnatin da aka raba kawai ba ya aiki.
A al'ada, wannan abu ne mai ban mamaki-duba kan abubuwan da ke damun jihar. Amma yanzu muna buƙatar tsattsauran mataki don kawo ƙarshen yaƙe-yaƙe, gyara kasafin kuɗi da sake fasalin Fed, duk da haka babu wani abu da zai iya faruwa a ƙarƙashin yanayin da yanzu ke nunawa.
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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