COVID-19 ba shi da kisa sosai a cikin jama'ar da ba su da shekaru fiye da yadda ake tsammani a baya, wani sabon bincike na binciken yaduwar cutar ya ƙare.
Dr. John Ioannidis, Farfesa na Magunguna da Cututtuka a Jami'ar Stanford ne ya jagoranci binciken, wanda ya shahara da yin gargadin farko a ranar 17 ga Maris, 2020 tare da karanta ko'ina. Labari in labarai, presciently gardama cewa "muna yanke shawara ba tare da ingantattun bayanai ba" da "tare da kulle watanni, idan ba shekaru ba, rayuwa ta ƙare, gajeren lokaci da sakamako na dogon lokaci gaba ɗaya ba a san shi ba, kuma biliyoyin, ba kawai miliyoyin ba, na iya zama cikin haɗari a ƙarshe."
A sabon binciken, wanda a halin yanzu ke jure wa takwarorinsu bita, Farfesa Ioannidis da abokan aiki sun gano cewa a cikin 31 na kasa seroprevalence binciken a cikin pre-alurar riga kafi, matsakaicin (tsakiyar) adadin kamuwa da cuta na COVID-19 an kiyasta ya zama kawai 0.035% ga mutanen da shekaru 0-59 shekaru mutane da 0.095% ga wadanda shekaru 0.
Wani ƙarin raguwa ta ƙungiyar shekaru ya gano cewa matsakaicin IFR shine 0.0003% a shekaru 0-19, 0.003% a shekaru 20-29, 0.011% a shekaru 30-39, 0.035% a shekaru 40-49, 0.129% a shekaru 50-59, da 0.501%
Binciken ya bayyana cewa yana nuna "ƙananan allurar riga-kafin IFR a cikin mutanen da ba tsofaffi fiye da yadda aka ba da shawara a baya".
Rushewar ƙasa yana bayyana fa'idar ƙimar IFR a tsakanin al'ummomi daban-daban.
Adadin mace-macen kamuwa da cuta (IFR) da 95% tazarar amincewa a kowace ƙasa ga mutanen ƙasa da shekaru 70.
Mahimman ƙima mafi girma ga manyan bakwai suna ba da shawarar wasu bambance-bambancen na iya zama kayan tarihi na, alal misali, yadda ake ƙididdige mutuwar Covid, musamman inda matakan mutuwa suka yi kama. Lura kuma cewa binciken antibody date daga wurare daban-daban a cikin shekarar farko ta barkewar cutar, yawancinsu kafin babban lokacin hunturu na 2020-21, lokacin da matakan yaduwa da adadin wadanda suka mutu ya bambanta fiye da baya a cikin barkewar cutar yayin da raƙuman ruwa na gaba suka haifar da haɗuwa.
Dalilin da ya sa wasu ƙasashe ke da ƙima mafi ƙasƙanci da yawa wasu kuma mafi girma ba a bayyana gaba ɗaya ba. Marubutan sun ba da shawarar cewa "yawancin bambance-bambancen da ke cikin IFR a cikin ƙasashe ana bayyana su ta hanyar bambance-bambancen tsarin shekaru," kamar yadda makircin da ke ƙasa.
Meta-regression na IFR a matsayin aikin rabon al'ummar ƙasa da shekaru 50 a cikin waɗanda shekarunsu 0-69.
Koyaya, raguwar shekaru ta ƙasa yana nuna cewa IFR ya bambanta ga kowane rukunin shekaru a kowace ƙasa, yana sanya shakku kan wannan shawarar. (A cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, lura da ma'aunin logarithmic, kuma kuyi watsi da layukan zigzag, waɗanda ke faruwa saboda ƙananan ƙasashe masu ƙarancin adadin mace-mace.)
IFR a kowace ƙasa ta kowace ƙayyadadden tarihin shekaru
Me yasa kasashe ke ganin IFRs daban-daban har ma na shekaru iri ɗaya? Marubutan sun ba da shawarar bayanai da yawa, gami da kayan tarihi na bayanai (misali idan ba a auna adadin mace-mace ko rashin daidaituwa ba daidai), kasancewar da kuma tsananin cututtuka (misali, kiba yana shafar 42% na yawan jama'ar Amurka, amma adadin manya masu kiba shine kawai 2% a Vietnam, 4% a Indiya kuma a ƙarƙashin 10% na Afirka ta Kudu), kodayake yana shafar yawancin matan Afirka ta Kudu. mutane masu rauni a cikin gidajen kulawa da bambance-bambance a cikin gudanarwa, kula da lafiya, tallafin al'umma gabaɗaya da matakan matsalolin ƙwayoyi.
Farfesa Ioannidis a baya ya buga wani adadin Takardu kimanta COVID-19's IFR ta yin amfani da binciken da ba a iya gani ba. Shi da tawagarsa sun kammala da cewa sabbin alkalumansu sun ba da tushe daga inda za a tantance ƙarin raguwar IFR sakamakon yawaitar amfani da allurar rigakafi, cututtukan da suka gabata da kuma juyin halittar sabbin bambance-bambancen kamar Omicron.
Rubuta daga DailySceptic
