Ofaya daga cikin mafi daidaiton ƙoƙarin da “ƙwararrun masana” suka yi a farkon farkon cutar shine ƙoƙarin burge jama'a cewa COVID cuta ce mai saurin kisa.
Duk da yake a bayyane yake cewa ga tsofaffi da masu fama da rashin lafiya, COVID yana gabatar da mahimman abubuwan da suka shafi kiwon lafiya, "ƙwararrun" sun yi iya ƙoƙarinsu don shawo kan mutanen kowane rukuni na shekaru cewa suna cikin haɗari.
Da farko Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya, a cikin gazawarsu mara iyaka, ta ba da gudummawa sosai ga wannan fahimta ta hanyar iƙirarin cewa adadin mace-mace daga COVID ya yi yawa sosai.
A cikin Maris 2020, tare da ƙananan bayanai masu daraja, WHO ta yi da'awa mai ban tsoro cewa kashi 3.4% na mutanen da suka kamu da COVID sun mutu.
CNBC ta ba da rahoton cewa wani taron manema labarai na farko da Darakta-Janar na WHO Tedros Ghebreyesus ya kwatanta cewa ana tsammanin mace-mace na COVID-19 zuwa mura:
"A duk duniya, kusan kashi 3.4% na rahoton COVID-19 da aka ruwaito sun mutu," in ji Darakta-Janar na WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus yayin wani taron manema labarai a hedkwatar hukumar a Geneva. Idan aka kwatanta, mura na yanayi gabaɗaya yana kashe ƙasa da kashi 1% na waɗanda suka kamu da cutar, in ji shi.
Wannan ya bambanta da kiyasin da aka yi a baya, wanda kuma ya haura 2%:
"Tun farkon barkewar cutar, masana kimiyya sun yanke shawarar cewa adadin wadanda suka mutu ya kusan kashi 2.3%."
Yayin da za a iya gafartawa "masana" saboda rashin tabbas game da adadin mutuwar sabuwar cuta tare da ƙananan bayanai da aka samu, manufar tsoro da canza duniya da aka kafa bisa waɗannan ƙididdiga ya haifar da lalacewa marar ƙima.
Yanzu an san da yawa kuma an yarda cewa waɗannan ƙididdiga ba daidai ba ne, an kashe su ta hanyar girma.
Sai dai wata sabuwar takarda daga daya daga cikin manyan masana a duniya ta tabbatar da cewa an kashe su fiye da yadda muka sani a baya.
John Ioannidis yana ɗaya daga cikin manyan ƙwararrun ƙwararrun kiwon lafiyar jama'a na ƙasar, wanda aka yi aiki a Jami'ar Stanford a matsayin Farfesa na Magunguna a Binciken Rigakafin Stanford, na Epidemiology da Lafiyar Jama'a," da kuma "Kididdigar Kididdigar da Kimiyyar Halittu."
Kuna tsammanin waɗancan cancantar cancantar da tarihin kasancewa ɗaya daga cikin mafi yawan wallafe-wallafen masana kimiyya a duniyar zamani za su hana shi zargi, amma abin takaici ba haka ba ne yadda Science™ ke aiki.
Ioannidis ya fara jawo fushin Masu Kula da Kimiyya ™ a farkon barkewar cutar, lokacin da ya yi gargadin cewa al'umma na iya yin manyan yanke shawara dangane da iyakancewar bayanan da ba su da inganci.
Har ila yau, ya shiga cikin mummunan binciken da aka yi a yankin Santa Clara, wanda Dr. Jay Bhattacharya ya jagoranta.
Wannan gwajin, wanda ya yi la'akari da yaɗuwar ƙwayoyin cuta a yankin San Jose, ya yanke shawarar cewa COVID ya riga ya yaɗu sosai a Maris da Afrilu 2020 fiye da yadda yawancin mutane suka fahimta.
Wannan yana da fa'idodi da yawa, amma mafi mahimmancin wahayin shine alkalumman adadin mace-macen COVID da “masana kimiyya” da WHO ke amfani da su kusan tabbas sun yi yawa.
An ƙirƙiri waɗannan ƙididdiga a ƙarƙashin zato cewa an gano lamuran COVID da yawa; An kama shari'o'in ta hanyar gwaji don haka ana iya samun nasarar gano mace-mace tare da "yawan mace-mace," maimakon "yawan mace-macen kamuwa da cuta."
Wannan shi ne kuskuren Tedros da WHO sun yi shekaru biyu da rabi da suka wuce.
Tabbas, don samar da kwararan hujjoji da bayanan da ke nuna cewa COVID bai mutu ba fiye da yadda ake fargabar da farko, an kai wa Ioannidis (da Bhattacharya) hari daga cikin “kwararrun al'ummar.”
A cikin abin da ya zama sanannen zagi, waɗanda ke bayan binciken an tozarta su a matsayin masu ragewa na COVID da masu ra'ayin makirci masu haɗari waɗanda za su kashe mutane ta hanyar rashin ɗaukar kwayar cutar da mahimmanci.
Amma Ioannidis ya kasance bai fidda rai ba, kuma tare da marubuta da yawa, kwanan nan ya sake sake wani bita game da adadin masu kamuwa da cuta na COVID. Mahimmanci, takardar tana duba lokacin da ake yin allurar riga-kafi kuma ta shafi kungiyoyin da ba tsofaffi ba; waɗanda suka fi fama da ƙuntatawa na COVID da umarni marasa iyaka.
Lambobi
A bita ya fara ne da wata sanarwa wacce kusan “kwararun masana” suka yi watsi da su gaba daya a duk lokacin barkewar cutar, amma musamman lokacin da hani, kulle-kulle da umarni suka kasance a matakin farko.
Adadin masu kamuwa da cuta (IFR) na COVID-19 a tsakanin mutanen da ba tsofaffi ba a cikin rashin rigakafi ko kamuwa da cutar da ta gabata yana da mahimmanci a kimanta daidai, tunda Kashi 94% na al'ummar duniya kasa da shekaru 70 kuma 86% kasa da shekaru 60 ne.
An ƙara jaddadawa.
Kashi 94% na al'ummar duniya ba su wuce shekaru 70 ba.
6% na sun girmi shekaru 70.
86% yana kasa da shekaru 60.
Wannan yana da dacewa saboda hani ya yi tasiri sosai kan 86-94% na mutanen da suka gaza shekaru 60 ko 70.
Ioannidis da abokan aikin sa sun sake nazarin nazarin cutar sankarau na kasa guda 40 wadanda suka shafi kasashe 38 da suka zo don tantance alkaluman adadin masu kamuwa da cutar ga mafi yawan mutane.
Mahimmanci, an gudanar da waɗancan binciken na seroprevalence kafin a fitar da alluran rigakafin, ma'ana an ƙididdige IFR's kafin duk wani tasirin maganin alurar riga kafi akan ƙananan shekaru.
To me suka same su?
Adadin mace-macen kamuwa da cuta na tsaka-tsaki na waɗanda ke tsakanin shekaru 0-59 ya kasance 0.035%.
Wannan yana wakiltar kashi 86% na yawan al'ummar duniya kuma adadin tsira ga waɗanda suka kamu da riga-kafin COVID ya kai 99.965%.
Ga wadanda ke da shekaru 0-69, wanda ke dauke da kashi 94% na al'ummar duniya, adadin wadanda suka mutu ya kasance 0.095%, ma'ana adadin tsira na kusan mutane biliyan 7.3 ya kasance 99.905%.
Wadancan adadin tsira a fili ya yi yawa, wanda tuni ya haifar da takaicin cewa an sanya takunkumi ga duk kungiyoyin shekaru, lokacin da aka mayar da hankali kan kariya ga wadanda suka haura 70 ko kuma a cikin hadari mai girma da ya kasance mafi kyawun tsarin aiki.
Amma yana kara muni.
Masu binciken sun rarraba kididdigar alƙaluman cikin ƙananan guga, suna nuna haɓakar haɗari a tsakanin tsofaffi, kuma akasin haka, yadda haɗarin ya kasance mara iyaka tsakanin ƙungiyoyin matasa.
- Shekaru 60-69, adadin mace-mace 0.501%, adadin tsira 99.499%
- Shekaru 50-59, adadin mace-mace 0.129%, adadin tsira 99.871%
- Shekaru 40-49, adadin mace-mace 0.035% adadin tsira 99.965%
- Shekaru 30-39, adadin mace-mace 0.011%, adadin tsira 99.989%
- Shekaru 20-29, adadin mace-mace 0.003%, adadin tsira 99.997%
- Shekaru 0-19, adadin mace-mace 0.0003%, adadin tsira 99.9997%
Sun kara da cewa "Ciki da bayanai daga wasu kasashe 9 da ke da adadin shekarun da suka mutu na COVID-19 ya haifar da matsakaicin IFR na 0.025-0.032% na shekaru 0-59 da 0.063-0.082% na shekaru 0-69."
Waɗannan lambobin suna da ban al'ajabi kuma suna da ƙarancin kwanciyar hankali, a duk faɗin hukumar.
Amma sun yi kusan babu ga yara.
Duk da haka har zuwa ƙarshen faɗuwar 2021, Fauci har yanzu yana jin tsoro game da haɗarin COVID ga yara don ƙara yawan allurar rigakafi, yana mai cewa a cikin wata hira da cewa ba "yanayin kirki ba ne:"
"Tabbas muna son a yi wa yara da yawa allurar rigakafi a cikin wannan rukunin kamar yadda za mu iya saboda kamar yadda kuka ji kuma kuka ba da rahoto, wannan ba, kun sani ba, yanayi mara kyau."
Yana da kusan ba zai yuwu kowace rashin lafiya ta zama ƙasa da haɗari, ko fiye da “m” fiye da haɗarin mutuwa 0.0003%.
Ko da a cikin Oktoba 2021, a daidai wannan lokacin yin hira da NPRFauci ya ce ya kamata a ci gaba da rufe fuska kan yara a matsayin "karin mataki" don kare su, koda bayan allurar:
Kuma lokacin da kuke da irin wannan nau'in haɓakar ƙwayar cuta, ko da lokacin da aka yi wa yara alurar riga kafi, tabbas - lokacin da kuke cikin saiti na cikin gida, kuna so ku tabbatar kun ƙara matakin don kare su. Don haka ba zan iya ba ku ainihin adadin abin da zai kasance a cikin yanayin ƙwayoyin cuta a cikin al'umma ba, amma da fatan za mu isa can cikin lokaci mai ma'ana. Ka sani, abin rufe fuska sau da yawa yanzu - kamar yadda muke faɗa, ba har abada ba ne. Kuma da fatan za mu kai ga matakin da za mu iya cire abin rufe fuska a makarantu da sauran wurare. Amma ban yarda cewa lokacin ya yi yanzu ba.
Babu wani abu da ya fi nuna gazawa da rashin fahimta daga Dr. Fauci fiye da yin watsi da wannan riga-kafi, yara suna cikin ƙananan haɗari daga COVID, cewa ɗaukar allurar rigakafin a tsakanin yara ba shi da mahimmanci tunda ba sa hana kamuwa da cuta ko watsawa, kuma amfani da abin rufe fuska ba shi da tasiri gaba ɗaya don kare kowa. Musamman ga wadanda ba su bukatar kariya tun farko.
CDC, al'ummar “kwararru”, Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya, alkalumman kafofin watsa labarai - duk sun yada ta'addanci ba tare da ɓata lokaci ba cewa ƙwayar cuta ce mai kisa yayin da aka gano adadin mace-mace tare da adadin masu kamuwa da cuta.
Amma duk da haka yanzu muna da wata shaida da ke nuna cewa farkon kididdigar WHO ta ragu da kashi 99% na kashi 94% na al'ummar duniya.
Kawai don wasu hangen nesa, ga bambancin da aka kwatanta a zahiri tsakanin abin da WHO ta yi da'awar da abin da Ioannidis ya samu:
Kash
Ko da ma kulle-kullen, umarnin abin rufe fuska, iyakoki da wuraren wasan da aka rufe sun yi aiki, haɗarin ƙwayar cuta ba su da yawa sosai har lalacewar haɗin gwiwa nan da nan ta zarce kowane fa'ida.
Rushewar tattalin arziki, ƙara yunƙurin kashe kansa saboda da alama keɓewa mara iyaka, matakan ban tsoro na asarar ilmantarwa, ƙara kiba tsakanin yara, ƙarancin gwaji, ƙara talauci da yunwa, matsalolin sarƙoƙi, hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki; duk wannan sakamakon kai tsaye ne na manufofin da “gwanaye” masu firgita, da ba su dace ba suka sanya.
Ƙididdigansu ba su da bege, bala'i ba daidai ba ne, amma duk da haka sun ci gaba da riƙe ma'anar ikonsu na shekaru da yawa, kuma har yanzu suna samun lambobin yabo, yabo, ƙarin kudade da kuma fahimtar rashin kuskure a tsakanin 'yan siyasa da masu yanke shawara.
Idan har yanzu hankali da gaskiya suna wanzuwa, waɗannan ƙididdiga za su zama labarai na farko ga kowace babbar kafar watsa labaru a duniya.
Madadin haka, saboda kafofin watsa labarai da abokansu a cikin fasaha, kamfanoni, da azuzuwan siyasa sun haɓaka da ƙarfafa kulle-kulle da hane-hane yayin tantance rashin amincewa, an yi watsi da shi.
Babu wani abu da zai iya zama cikakkiyar COVID fiye da haka.
sake bugawa daga marubucin Mayarwa
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Ian Miller shine marubucin "Ba a rufe ba: Kasawar Duniya na Dokokin COVID Mask." An nuna aikinsa a watsa shirye-shiryen talabijin na kasa, wallafe-wallafen labarai na kasa da na duniya da kuma ambatonsa a cikin mafi kyawun littattafan sayar da kayayyaki da suka shafi cutar. Ya rubuta wasiƙar Substack, kuma mai suna "Ba a rufe ba."
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