Ee, muna da wasu stagflation. Bayan pre-Covid kololuwa a cikin Q4 2019, ainihin tallace-tallace na ƙarshe na samfuran cikin gida ya ragu zuwa rarrafe, yana tashi kawai. 0.73% a kowace shekara a cikin shekaru 2.5 da suka gabata.
Mun fi son wannan ma'auni fiye da ainihin GDP saboda yana kawar da sauye-sauyen ƙira daga kwata zuwa kwata, wanda zai iya yin tasiri mai yawa akan lambar kanun labarai. Don haka, a cikin kashi biyu na farko na shekarar 2022 da aka bayar da rahoton baya-baya-baya na ainihin kwangilar GDP ya kasance ne saboda yawan ƙirƙira, ba ainihin raguwar ayyukan yanzu ba.
Kamar yadda ya faru, duk da haka, sauye-sauyen ƙididdiga sun yanke hanyoyi biyu-don haka ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa ya kawar da wannan hayaniyar ƙididdiga kuma ya kai ga ainihin yanayin samarwa, samun kudin shiga da ciyarwa.
Abin da ya faru, don haka, shi ne, duk da sama da dala tiriliyan 11 na kuɗi da na kuɗaɗen kuɗi tun Q4 2019, tattalin arzikin Amurka ya ɓata hanya zuwa ainihin babu inda.
Ainihin Lockdown-induced 32% annualized plunge a cikin Q2 2020 ya biyo baya da 23% shekara-shekara rebound a cikin Q3 2020 sa'an nan kuma komawa zuwa pre-Covid farawa ta Q1/Q2 2021. Bayan haka, duk da haka, wannan jimillar nuni na halin yanzu tattalin arziƙi da gaske oscillated tare da lebur line.
Adadin Canji na Shekara-shekara, Kasuwancin Ƙarshe na Gaskiya na Kayan Gida:
- Q3 2021: + 0.09%;
- Q4 2021: + 1.45%;
- Q1 2022: -1.24%;
- Q2 2022: + 1.08%;
Rubutun huɗun da suka gabata a fili babu abin da za a rubuta a gida, ko da a cikin yanayi na yau da kullun. Amma waɗannan sakamako marasa ƙarfi sun faru a zahiri a kan diddigin abin da ya fi tayar da hankali a cikin tarihin da aka rubuta; haka kuma a lokacin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ke tashi kawai.
Wannan yana nufin cewa yayin da yunƙurin Washington ke dushewa da hauhawar hauhawar farashin tituna a cikin watanni masu zuwa, mafi munin ƙasashen biyu za su durƙusa tattalin arzikin Amurka. Saboda haka, akwai kowane dalili na tsammanin cewa layin ja a cikin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa ba da daɗewa ba zai faɗi cikin ƙasa mara kyau don ɓata da yawa masu zuwa.
Canjin Y/Y A Haƙiƙanin Tallan Ƙarshe Na Kayan Cikin Gida, Q4 2019 zuwa Q2 2022
Don son shakku, a nan ne adadin shekara-shekara na canjin canjin GDP na tsawon shekaru 2.5 guda. A bayyane yake, ya matsa sama da ƙarfi, sabanin ƙimar tuta a cikin tallace-tallace na ƙarshe na gaske.
Adadin Canji na Shekara-shekara A cikin Deflator na GDP:
- Q4 2020: +1.93%;
- Q1 2021: + 4.22%;
- Q2 2021: 6.04%;
- Q3 2021: + 5.75%;
- Q4 2021: + 6.90%;
- Q1 2022: + 7.93%;
- Q2 2022: +8.50%;
Abin da ke sama wanda aka kwatanta hauhawar hauhawar farashin kaya tabbas ɗaya ne don littattafan rikodin. A zahiri, lokacin ƙarshe na GDP deflator ya wuce 8.50% ya kasance shekaru 42 da suka gabata a cikin Q4 1980.
Wannan shi ne dalilin da ya sa hakikanin tattalin arziki ke durkushewa, kuma tabarbarewar tattalin arziki ta kasance cikin rugujewa: A iya sanina, ana samun ribar da ake samu a cikin kuɗin shiga na ƙima fiye da yadda ake ci ta hanyar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, wanda ke ba da hanya ga mafi muni na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da faɗuwar haɓaka ta gaske tun daga shekarun 1970.
Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, wannan yanayin ya bar Fed sama da bushewa. Bayan shekaru na 2.00% inflation mantra as the be-all and end-all of macroeconomic kwanciyar hankali da wadata, ba zai da wani zabi sai dai don ci gaba da tura riba rates don yaƙar 6-9% hauhawar farashin kaya-har sai faɗuwar fitarwa girma ƙarshe ya ruguje cikin zurfin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Canjin Y/Y A cikin Deflator na GDP, Q4 2019 zuwa Q2 2022
Zubar da bayanan yau, a zahiri, siginar gargaɗi ce cewa tattalin arzikin Amurka na iya faɗuwa don ƙidayar da zaran Q3. Wannan saboda S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index da aka buga a wani mummunan 47.7 a watan Yuli.
Karatun watan Yuli ya ragu daga 52.3 a watan Yuni kuma yana nuna alamar sabunta kwangilar kasuwancin kamfanoni masu zaman kansu. Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin ginshiƙi, GDP na yau da kullun yana bin ƙayyadaddun abubuwan fitarwa tare da ɗan ragi.
Akwai shaidu da yawa, a zahiri, cewa manyan sassan kamfanoni masu zaman kansu sun riga sun doshi kudu. Misali, gyaran gyare-gyaren hauhawar farashin gine-ginen da ba na zama ba yayin Q2 2022 ya ragu da kashi 12.4% daga kololuwar Q1 2020.
Tare da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba mu ga dalilin da za mu sa ran cewa saka hannun jari na gaske a cikin kasuwanci, ofis, dillalai da wuraren gine-gine na masana'antu na iya komawa mafi girma a cikin kwata na gaba.
Daidaita Kudaden Gina Kuɗi, Masu zaman kansu, Q4 2019-Q2 2022
Har ila yau, ba mu ga wani dalilin da zai sa mabukaci da aka yi hasashe ya sake komawa ba, ko dai. A zahiri, daga lokacin da ainihin PCE ta harbi wata a cikin Afrilu 2021 saboda rashin jin daɗi na dala tiriliyan 1.9 na Joe Biden, kashe kuɗi na gida ya yi ta tafiya ƙasa a wani faifan bidiyo mara ƙarfi.
Bayan girma a 5.0% Y/Y a farkon 2022, adadi na Yuni ya shigo daidai 1.5%, ci gaba da raguwa a hankali. Kuma abin da ke gaba shine hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kuma mai yiwuwa harajin Joe Biden yana ƙaruwa - akasin kashe kuɗi na wucin gadi wanda aka nuna a farkon lokacin ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa.
Canjin Y/Y A Real PCE, Afrilu 2021 zuwa Yuni 2022
A ƙarshe, rahoton Fed na yau game da bashin mabukaci ya ba da ƙarin ƙusa guda ɗaya kawai a cikin akwatin gawa. Ya nuna cewa jimlar bashin gida ya tashi dala biliyan 312 a cikin kwata na biyu don kaiwa dala tiriliyan 16.15.
- Ma'auni na jinginar gida - mafi girman bangaren bashin gida - ya haura dala biliyan 207 kuma ya tsaya a kan dala tiriliyan 11.39 tun daga ranar 30 ga Yuni.
- Ma'auni na katin kiredit yana da haɓaka dala biliyan 46 tun kwata na farko. Haɓaka na 13% na shekara-shekara ya nuna mafi girma a cikin fiye da shekaru 20.
- Ƙididdigar ƙididdiga akan katunan sun nuna haɓaka mafi girma a cikin sama da shekaru goma.
- Kuma ma'auni na rancen mota ya karu da dala biliyan 33 a cikin kwata na biyu, yana ci gaba da ci gaba da yanayin da ake ciki tun 2011.
Don haka, a, kashe kuɗin mabukaci ba ya nan a cikin ƙasa mai kyau a zahiri, amma wannan gaba ɗaya ya faru ne saboda ci gaba da haɓaka bashin gida. Lokaci ne kawai, duk da haka, har sai hauhawar farashin riba ya rufe wannan hanyar fadada kuma.
Abun hauka, ba shakka, shine Wall Street yanzu yana tunanin cewa lokacin ƙarfafa Fed zai ƙare a watan Disamba kuma an ci nasarar yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, wanda hakan ya ba da damar sabon zagaye na rage farashin da hauhawar farashin hannun jari.
Mafarki a kan!
An rubuta shi daga Sabis na shawarwari na David Stockman.
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David Stockman, Babban Malami a Cibiyar Brownstone, shine marubucin litattafai da yawa akan siyasa, kudi, da tattalin arziki. Shi tsohon dan majalisa ne daga Michigan, kuma tsohon Daraktan Ofishin Gudanarwa da Kasafin Kudi na Majalisa. Yana gudanar da shafin nazari na tushen biyan kuɗi ContraCorner.
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