A binciken An buga a cikin Ƙungiyar Ƙungiyar Magunguna ta Kanada (CMAJ) mai taken "Tasirin haɗuwar yawan jama'a tsakanin alurar riga kafi da marasa alurar riga kafi akan yanayin cututtukan cututtuka: abubuwan da ke haifar da watsawar SARS-CoV-2," a ranar 25 ga Afrilu, 2022. An saita a cikin mahallin Covid-19 kuma bisa ga binciken ƙirar simulation daban-daban na gaurayawar alurar riga kafi da yawan jama'a, binciken ya ƙaddamar da haɗarin cutar.
Nan take wannan ya haifar da tashin hankali a kafafen yada labarai a sassa da dama na duniya: Labaran WION, Hoton Hamilton Spectator, NDTV (Indiya), DNA (Indiya), Zaman Yanzu (Indiya), Da dai sauransu
Ƙarshen binciken da aka yi a sama ya ci karo da lura cewa yawan mutanen da aka yi wa jiɓi sun fuskanci maimaituwa: misali Isra'ila, ƙasashe daban-daban a Turai, Amurka, da dai sauransu, yayin da yawan mutanen da ke da ƙananan kashi ɗaya kawai ba su sami karuwa ba: Indiya, ƙasashen Afirka daban-daban, da dai sauransu. [Maganin bayanai: Duniyar mu a Data].
Ƙarshen littafin ba wai kawai ya saba wa kallon ɗan adam ba, har ma da sauran nazarin ƙididdiga na hankali. Tun daga watan Satumba 2021, a binciken mai taken "Ƙara a cikin COVID-19 ba shi da alaƙa da matakan rigakafi a cikin ƙasashe 68 da larduna 2947 a Amurka" ya dubi alaƙar ƙididdiga tsakanin matakan jab da rahoton shari'o'in Covid-19, kuma a zahiri an sami kyakkyawar alaƙa mai kyau: babban matakin jabs yana da alaƙa da inganci tare da manyan shari'o'in Covid-19.
Buga wannan binciken ƙididdiga, tare da zuwan Omicron, ƙarin bayanai daga ko'ina cikin duniya sun nuna cewa yawan kamuwa da cuta ya kasance. mafi girma a cikin alurar riga kafi (har ma da haɓaka) yawan jama'a. Misali, da hoto yana nuna ƙimar ƙimar gwajin na matakan rigakafi daban-daban a cikin Amurka waɗanda ba a yi musu allurar ba suna da mafi girman adadin gwaje-gwaje amma mafi ƙanƙanta kashi dari na inganci. A bayyane yake cewa maganin ba ya yin wani abu don hana kamuwa da cuta bayan raguwa; a gaskiya yana iya ƙara damar gwada inganci.
Duk da abubuwan da ke sama, yaya aka yi CMAJ nazari ya isa ga ƙarshe da ya yi? Bari yanzu mu dubi cancantar fasaha na binciken.
Da farko, mun lura cewa a nazarin kwaikwayo, ba ainihin bayanan duniya ba. A cikin kimiyya, yayin da simintin gyare-gyare na iya zama da amfani a yanayi da yawa, bayanan duniyar zahiri suna da fa'ida sosai tunda babu kwaikwaiyo da zai iya kama gaskiya daidai.
Idan aka yi la'akari da cikakkun bayanai na binciken simintin yana nuna matsalolin fasaha mai zurfi, da aka jera a ƙasa.
- Binciken ya ce "Ba mu ƙididdige rigakafin rigakafi ba." Akwai ci gaba da karatu da kuma bayanan duniyar da ke nuna raguwar rigakafi na Covid-19 jabs na yanzu. Tasirin jab akan bayyanar cututtuka har da asibiti an san yana raguwa a cikin watanni 3-6. Don haka rashin yin tallan kariyar garkuwar jiki alama ce ta rashin daidaituwa da gaskiya.
- Simulation ya ɗauki ingancin jab a matsayin 80% (Table-1 a cikin binciken). Yanzu, wannan ma ya yi nisa daga gaskiya. Yayin da kwanan nan aka sarrafa binciken a Ingila ya nuna ingancin jab a ƙasa da -2.7% (minus 2.7%) bayan watanni shida na biyu-jab, bayanan da aka ambata a sama na yawan jama'a daga Amurka sun nuna ingancin jab na ƙasa da -100% (a debe 100%) na sau uku-jabbed.
- Simulation yana ɗaukar ƙaƙƙarfan rigakafi a cikin waɗanda ba a rufe su kamar 20% (Table-1 a cikin binciken). Wannan wani ma'auni ne mai nisa da gaske a yawancin wurare a duniya a yanzu. A Indiya, sero-bincike sun nuna cewa yawancin mutane a halin yanzu suna kamuwa da kwayar cutar. Ko da a Amurka, CDC tana da ya ce cewa yawancin Amurkawa sun kamu da cutar. Wannan yana da mahimmanci tunda bincike daban-daban sun tabbatar da cewa rigakafi bayan bayyanar halitta shine karfi, tsawon lokaci da nisa M to jab-induced rigakafi.
Ta haka ne da yawa jama'a CMAJ kwaikwaiyo binciken ya dogara ne akan zato waɗanda aka san suna da kurakurai. Ƙaddamarwar na iya zama gaskiya a cikin wata duniyar dabam inda rigakafi daga fallasa dabi'a ba shi da kyau, kuma rigakafin Covid-19 yana da babban inganci wanda ba ya raguwa; amma tabbas ba su dawwama a duniyar gaske.
Har ila yau, yana da kyau a nuna bayanin "masu gasa" da aka ayyana a cikin bazawa, wanda ya ce ɗaya daga cikin marubutan ya yi aiki a kan allunan shawarwari daban-daban don rigakafin Covid-19. Ko wannan yana nuna cancanta ko son zuciya ya kamata a bar wa mai karatu yin tafsiri, kuma ’yan jarida masu hakki suma su nuna irin abubuwan da ke gaba da juna yayin da suke ba da rahoto kan sakamakon wallafe-wallafe.
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Bhaskaran Raman malami ne a Sashen Kimiyyar Kwamfuta da Injiniya a IIT Bombay. Ra'ayoyin da aka bayyana a nan ra'ayinsa ne na kansa. Yana kula da rukunin yanar gizon: "Fahimtar, Unclog, Rashin tsoro, Rashin tsoro, Buɗe (U5) Indiya" https://tinyurl.com/u5india. Ana iya samun sa ta twitter, telegram: @br_cse_iitb. br@cse.iitb.ac.in
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