A cikin gajeren labari na Sir Arthur Conan Doyle "Wutar Azurfa, "Sherlock Holmes ya yi fice wajen warware batun kisan kai ta hanyar lura da kare da bai yi haushi ba.
Gregory (Mai bincike na Yard Scotland ga Holmes): "Shin akwai wani batu da kuke son jawo hankalina?"
Holmes: "Ga abin mamaki na kare a cikin dare."
Gregory: "Karen bai yi kome ba a cikin dare."
Holmes: "Wannan shi ne abin mamaki."
Jadawalin lokaci na "aiki" na yaduwar sabon coronavirus karya ne tun daga farko. “Karen da bai yi haushi ba” shine jami’an gaskiya sun ƙi yin bincike da gaske game da ɗimbin shaidar “yaduwa da wuri.”
Lokacin da abubuwan da ya kamata su faru a fili ba su faru ba, mai binciken gaskiya zai yi tambayoyi masu ma'ana da yawa.
Misali: Me ya sa ba wadannan ayyukan suna faruwa? Shin jami'an Amurka da aka amince da su watakila suna ɓoye wani abu, kuma, idan haka ne, me yasa? Shin ya kamata a dauki wasu mutane da wasu kungiyoyi a matsayin wadanda ake zargi na farko a daya daga cikin manyan laifuffuka masu ban tsoro a tarihin duniya?
A cikin labaran da suka gabata, na gano 17 sanannun Amurkawa wanda ke da shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cutar coronavirus watanni kafin kwayar cutar ta yadu a Amurka. Uku daga cikin waɗannan Amurkawa sun sami shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta ta hanyar Nuwamba 2019.
Na kuma gano kwanan nan akalla wasu Amurkawa bakwai wadanda suka yi iƙirarin suna da alamun Covid a cikin Nuwamba ko Disamba 2019 waɗanda suka ce daga baya sun sami ingantaccen sakamako na rigakafin cutar. Na gano haka aƙalla 24 da aka sani Ba'amurke waɗanda wataƙila sun sami Covid a wani lokaci a cikin shekarar 2019. Hakanan kuma mahimmanci, jami'an tarayya basu taba yin hira da kowa daga cikin wadannan mutane ba.
Zurfafa zurfafa a yau cikin shaidar “bazuwar farko” ta fi mayar da hankali kan Wasu Amurkawa 106 waɗanda kuma ke da shaidar rigakafin cutar da wuri. Waɗannan Amurkawa 106 sun gwada inganci ga ƙwayoyin rigakafin Covid a cikin binciken CDC na masu ba da gudummawar jini na Red Cross.
Yayin da "Nazarin Jini na Red Cross"An sami daidaitaccen adadin ɗaukar hoto lokacin da aka buga shi a kan Nuwamba 30, 2020, abubuwan "canjin labari" ko "seismic" na wannan binciken har yanzu ba a ba su nauyin da suka cancanci ba.
Ƙarshen da ke gudana daga wannan bincike sun haɗa da:
* Zuwa karshen watan Disamba 2019, fiye da 7 miliyan Amirkawa Wataƙila cutar ta kamu da cutar ta coronavirus… fiye da watanni uku kafin kulle-kulle na tsakiyar Maris 2020, an aiwatar da kulle-kulle don "hankali" ko "dakatar da" yaduwar kwayar cutar da ta bazu ko'ina cikin kasar da duniya watanni da yawa a baya.
* “Wataƙila” lokuta na Covid sun riga sun faru a kalla 16 US jihohi zuwa 1 ga Janairu, 2020 - makonni ko watanni kafin a fara yin rikodin shari'ar "tabbatar" na Covid a Amurka Janairu 19, 2020.
- Antibody karatu na jini da aka adana a Italiya da Faransa Hakanan ya goyi bayan hasashen cewa kwayar cutar ta kamu da mutane da yawa a cikin wadannan kasashe biyu a farkon Satumba 2019.
Manyan tambayoyin da ba a amsa sun haɗa da:
Me yasa Red Cross ta yi nazarin jini kawai binciken maganin antibody na samfuran jini da ƙungiyoyin bankin jini suka tattara?
Me yasa aka dauki lokaci mai tsawo don buga sakamakon na wannan binciken jini na Red Cross daya?
Yaushe jami'ai suka gwada wannan jinin da kuma yaushe ne masu tsara manufofin Amurka suka san sakamakon?(Wannan a zahiri tambaya ce ta dala tiriliyan. Haka kuma, Idan da an gwada wannan jinin tun da farko, da an ceci miliyoyin rayuka).
Me yasa jami'ai ba su yi hira da Amurkawa 106 da ke da shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta ba?
Yana yiwuwa aƙalla wasu ƙwararrun kiwon lafiyar jama'a na iya ɓoye shaidar yaɗuwar wuri da gangan. An gabatar da dalilan da suka haifar da wannan ƙarshe mai tayar da hankali a ƙasa.
Na farko da aka sani sani
Tsakanin Disamba 13-16, 2019, Amurkawa 1,912 a cikin jihohin California, Oregon da kuma Washington bayar da gudummawar jini ta hanyar Red Cross ta Amurka. Wasu Amurkawa 5,477 kuma sun ba da gudummawar jini ta Red Cross tsakanin Disamba 30, 2019 da Janairu 17, 2020. Waɗannan masu ba da gudummawa sun fito ne daga jihohin Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Wisconsin da kuma Iowa
A wani lokaci, CDC ta yanke shawarar cewa yakamata ta gwada waɗannan samfuran 7,389 na “ajiye” jini don ƙwayoyin rigakafin Covid. Lokacin da wannan ya faru - da kuma dalilin da ya sa aka dauki lokaci mai tsawo don faruwar hakan - su ne biyu daga cikin tambayoyin da har yanzu ba a amsa ba.
TATTAUNAWA - Tranche 1 (California, Oregon da Washington)
Daga cikin samfuran 1,912 da aka gwada don maganin rigakafin Covid, 39 sun kasance tabbatacce ga ƙwayoyin rigakafin IgG da/ko IgM.
Na sama yana wakiltar 2.04 kashi na jimlar samfurori daga wannan sashin. A cikin samfuran da aka gwada daga gundumar Red Cross ta Arewacin California, 2.4 kashi na samfuran sera sun gwada inganci ga Covid-19 ta hanyar gwajin ELISA.
Idan wannan misali ne na yawan jama'ar Amurka, kashi 2.04 zai fassara zuwa kusan 7.94 miliyan Amirkawa wanda ya riga ya kamu da wannan kwayar cutar a cikin makonni kafin Disamba 13-16. (Math: Yawan jama'ar Amurka miliyan 331 x 0.024 bisa dari = miliyan 7.94).
Idan muka haɗa duka sassan biyu, masu ba da gudummawa 106 masu kyau suna wakiltar 1.43 kashi na babban “rukunin samfur.” Wannan adadin seroprevalence zai fassara zuwa 4.73 miliyan Amirkawa ana fama da cutar a fadin kasar nan da wani lokaci a farkon watan Janairun 2020.
Jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a da ke aiki akan kari don haɓaka abin tsoro dole ne su yaba da gaskiyar cewa 'yan jarida a cikin jaridu na yau da kullun ba su yi abubuwan da na yi a sama ba.
Wannan “karen da bai yi haushi” na musamman (latsa wanda ba zai aiwatar da abubuwan da suka dace ba) wataƙila an bayyana shi ta harshe/shiryar da marubutan da suka haɗa cikin binciken.
Daga binciken: Sakamakon"bazai zama wakilci ba na duk masu ba da gudummawar jini ko gudummawa a cikin waɗannan jahohin da binciken bazai zama gama gari ba ga duk masu ba da gudummawar jini yayin kwanakin gudummawar da aka ruwaito a nan. Don haka, ƙididdige ƙididdiga na tushen yawan jama'a ko ƙididdiga kan girman kamuwa da cuta a matakin ƙasa ko na jiha. ba za a iya yi. "
Na lura marubutan sun yi amfani da kalmomin "watakila ba zama gama gari ga duk masu ba da gudummawar jini yayin kwanakin gudummawar da aka ruwaito a nan." A gare ni, wannan zaɓin kalmomi ba ya kawar da yiwuwar waɗannan sakamakon may zama gama gari ga mafi yawan jama'a.
Dalilan marubutan cewa bai kamata masu karatu su “gabaɗa” sakamakon ga jama’a gabaɗaya ba ne. Ƙungiyar bazuwar masu ba da gudummawar jini tana kusan kyakkyawan samfurin kamar yadda mutum zai iya yi. Misali, wannan BA samfurin “son zuciya ba ne” na mutanen da suke tunanin watakila sun sami Covid a baya.
Wannan samfurin kusan tabbas yana yin watsi da yaduwar ƙwayoyin cuta a cikin waɗannan jihohin
A cikin labaran jaridu na yau da kullun game da wannan binciken, dukkansu sun ba da rahoton cewa wannan binciken ya nuna yiwuwar fara yaɗuwar ƙwayar cuta zuwa Disamba 2019. Wannan ba daidai bane. Sakamakon, saboda dalilai da aka zayyana a ƙasa, a zahiri sun nuna cewa Amurkawa sun kamu da cutar a cikin Nuwamba 2019 ko (kusan-tabbas) ma a baya.
Game da yuwuwar samfurin na iya samun yaɗuwar gaskiya ta ƙididdigewa, ya kamata a yi la'akari da waɗannan abubuwan.
Wasu daga cikin masu ba da gudummawa, musamman waɗanda ke da cututtukan asymptomatic kuma ba su ma san cewa ba su da lafiya, ƙila ba su sami lokacin haɓaka ƙwayoyin rigakafi a lokacin da suka ba da gudummawar jini ba. Per binciken daya, "Matsakaicin lokacin da za a iya gano neutralization shine kwanaki 14.3 bayan fara bayyanar cututtuka (kwanaki 3-59.")
Hakanan, yana yiwuwa wasu daga cikin masu ba da gudummawa sun sami matakan gano ƙwayoyin rigakafi a kwanan baya, amma waɗannan ƙwayoyin rigakafin sun “ɓace” ko “ɓace” kuma ba a iya “ganowa” a lokacin da suka ba da samfuran jini.
Bugu da ƙari, duk masu ba da gudummawar jini na yau da kullun sun san cewa ya kamata ba da gudummawar jini idan sun yi rashin lafiya kwanan nan. Wannan ragi yana ƙara tabbatar da yiwuwar kamuwa da cutar ga wasu masu ba da gudummawa "tabbatacce" aƙalla makonni biyu.
Hakanan, goyan bayan ainihin "kwanakin kamuwa da cuta" na yawancin masu ba da gudummawa shine gaskiyar cewa kashi 32.23 na masu ba da gudummawa waɗanda suka gwada inganci don "kwayoyin kariya masu tsaka tsaki" an gwada su. korau ga IgM antibody kuma tabbatacce ga IgG antibody.
A cikin binciken da yawa, ƙwayoyin rigakafin IgM-tabbatacce sun dawwama na kusan wata ɗaya. Wato, bayan kwanaki 30, waɗanda a baya suka kamu da cutar ta Covid za su gwada korau ga IgM antibodies. Koyaya, ƙwayoyin rigakafi na IgG na iya ɗaukar watanni da yawa, shekaru ko, a wasu mutane, wataƙila tsawon rayuwa.
Bisa ga binciken kungiyar Red Cross, 32 kashi na masu ba da gudummawa ba su da kyau-IgM amma tabbatacce IgG, wanda ke nuna cewa kusan kashi ɗaya bisa uku na wannan samfurin sun kamu da wata ɗaya ko fiye kafin su ba da gudummawar jini. Wannan hadewar sakamakon rigakafin zai iya tura yiwuwar kamuwa da cuta tun daga Oktoba (ko ma Satumba) don wasu kaso na masu ba da gudummawa.
Ba mu san lokacin da waɗannan mutanen da ke cikin jihohin Yammacin Turai uku (ko sauran jihohin Tsakiyar Yamma da Arewa maso Gabas guda shida) na iya kamuwa da cutar ba - amma wataƙila da yawancinsu sun kamu da cutar. makonni da yawa ko ma watanni kafin su ba da gudummawar jini.Wato, "Binciken jini na Red Cross" ya ba da kwararan shaidu cewa farkon yaɗuwar a Amurka mai yiwuwa ya faru aƙalla farkon Oktoba da watakila ma Satumba.
Menene ainihin ma'anar kalmar ' yada'?
Hakanan, gaskiyar cewa an sami ingantattun samfuran a cikin DUKAN jihohi tara (California, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Connecticut da Rhode Island) da kanta yana ba da shawarar “yaduwa.” tambaya: Ta yaya kwayar cuta za ta iya kamuwa da mutane a cikin jihohi tara da ke warwatse ba tare da “yaduwa ba?”
Zuwa waɗannan jihohi tara, za mu iya ƙarawa wasu jihohi bakwai (New Jersey, Florida da kuma Alabama) daga zagaye na farko na labarai da kuma yanzu ma New York, Texas, Nebraska da kumaNorth Carolina daga labarina na baya-bayan nan inda masu karatu da shaidar antibody suka tuntube ni. Wannan yana bamu Kasashen 16 inda wannan cutar da ake zargin babu ko “keɓe” ta kamu da mutane kafin shari'ar farko a hukumance a Amurka.
Zan kuma lura cewa duk abin da kwayar cutar ta sa da yawa daga cikin wadannan mutane "marasa lafiya" baza tsakanin 'yan uwa. Alal misali, aƙalla ma’aurata huɗu sun kamu da cutar juna da/ko aƙalla yaro ɗaya. Magajin garin Michael Melham ya ce "da yawa" mutane a wurin taron inda ya fara rashin lafiya tare da alamun Covid suma sun kamu da rashin lafiya a lokaci guda, wanda, a ma'anar wannan ma'anar, yana nuna kwayar cutar "yaduwa."
Zuwa lambobin da ke sama, za mu iya ƙara duka wadanda ba a san su ba wadanda suka kamu da wadannan mutane… da kuma wadanda ba a san ko su waye suka kamu da wadannan mutanen da ba a san su ba.
Har ila yau, ya kamata a lura cewa binciken jini na Red Cross bai zama cikakkiyar samfurin ba saboda masu ba da jini sun girmi shekarun da suka wuce. A cikin wannan samfurin, matsakaicin shekarun ya kasance 52 - 13 shekaru fiye da shekarun Amurka na 38.6. Hankali yana gaya mana cewa tsofaffin da suka yi ritaya ba sa hulɗa da kusan mutane da yawa a kullum kamar yadda matasa masu ƙwazo.
Na kuma yarda cewa yana yiwuwa jami'an da suka “ba da izini” ko kuma sun amince da gwajin rigakafin na hukuma maiyuwa an yi amfani da gwaje-gwajen don tabbatar da ƙarancin "tabbatattun" ko "tabbatacce" lokuta, sakamakon da zai rage duk wani ɓarna daga mafi girman kashi na tabbatacce. Bambanci na kashi 1 ko 2 cikin 3.3 na ƙididdiga masu yawa ba zai yi kama da yawa ba. Koyaya, a zahiri, wannan zai wakilci ƙarin ƙarin shari'o'i miliyan 6.6 zuwa XNUMX.
Don waɗannan dalilai, na yi imanin adadin Amurkawa da suka kamu da cutar sankara ta coronavirus a cikin shekarar 2019 musamman sama da kashi 1.43 ko 2.04 na yawan jama'ar Amurka.
Karen da Bai Yi Haushi Shaida ba
Game da binciken rigakafin cutar ta Red Cross, maki da yawa sun cancanci kulawa fiye da yadda aka samu. Masu biyowa ba a amsa ba Tambayoyi suna magance waɗannan batutuwa:
Ya zuwa ranar 31 ga Disamba, 2019, kowane jami'in kula da lafiyar jama'a na Amurka ya san cewa jami'an kasar Sin sun ba da rahoton bullar wani sabon nau'in kwayar cutar huhu ga Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya.
Imanina ne aƙalla wasu jami'an Amurka ko dai sun sani ko kuma suna da kwararan dalilai na zargin wannan watannin baya. (Za a bincika wannan batu / ka'idar a cikin labarai na gaba).
Ko da mutum ya yarda cewa sanarwar ranar 31 ga Disamba ita ce jami'an Amurka na farko da suka ji labarin yiwuwar barkewar annoba a duniya, shin daya daga cikin abubuwan da wadannan jami'an suka fara yi ba zai kasance a gwada jinin da aka adana don ganin ko wannan kwayar cutar tana yaduwa a kasar?
Amsa ɗaya ga wannan tambayar na iya kasancewa ƙungiyar kimiyyar Amurka kawai ba ta da gwajin rigakafin ƙwayoyin cuta wanda zai iya gwada ƙwayoyin rigakafi a farkon Janairu. Wannan na iya zama gaskiya, amma, a cikin bincikena, ƙirƙirar gwajin rigakafin mutum ga kowace ƙwayar cuta ba ta haifar da ƙalubale ga ƙwararrun masana kimiyya masu hankali. Idan ba a sami irin wannan gwajin ba a farkon makonnin cutar ta hukuma, tabbas yakamata mutum ya kasance a ƙarshen Janairu.
Har ila yau, na karanta bincike da dama da masana kimiyyar kasar Sin suka rubuta kasance yin gwajin maganin rigakafi a watan Janairu 2020. Misali, wannan binciken "an buga shi a ranar 24 ga Janairu, 2020" kuma ya haɗa da jumla mai zuwa:
“Ƙarin hujjoji don tabbatar da mahimmancin ilimin 2019-nCoV a cikin barkewar Wuhan sun haɗa da… dIgM da IgG antiviral antibodies. ”…
Tabbas, yayin fuskantar “rikicin duniya” da ke kunno kai, manyan masana kimiyya na Amurka sun iya yin irin wannan abu (ko kawai aron fasahar daga Sinawa).
Kungiyar agaji ta Red Cross ba ta da sauran jinin da aka kebe?
Har ila yau, dole ne ya zama gaskiya cewa yawancin samfuran jini na "ajiya" daga ko'ina cikin ƙasar sun kasance don gwaji (kuma Red Cross ba ita ce kawai ƙungiyar da ke aiki a matsayin bankin jini na asibitoci ba).
A cikin fuskantar gaggawa ta ƙasa, zai zama abin ban mamaki idan duka waɗannan ƙungiyoyin sun gabatar da ƙin yarda ga wasu daga cikin jininsu da aka adana don “sake” bincike mai mahimmanci.
Idan an ba da gudummawar jini guda biyu don ilimin kimiyya, ba za a iya ba da sauran jini na Red Cross irin wannan ba? Me yasa ba a tattara jinin Red Cross ba kafin ranar 13 ga Disamba an yi gwajin ƙwayoyin cuta? Me yasa aka tattara jini aka gwada daga jihohi tara kawai? Me yasa ba duka jihohi 50 ba? Me yasa ba a gwada jinin daga wurare guda ba bayan makonni biyu ko uku (ko daga kwanakin farko)… ko watanni biyu bayan haka don ganin ko adadin abubuwan da aka tabbatar na iya karuwa?
Jama'a ba su san amsar ɗayan waɗannan tambayoyin ba kuma da alama babu wani dan jarida da ya tambayi jami'an wadannan tambayoyi.
Har ila yau, ayyukan da zasu yi kama da hankali ga yawancin mutane… BA su faru ba.
Yaushe jami'ai suka gwada wannan jini kuma yaushe ne masu tsara manufofin Amurka suka san sakamakon?
Ɗaya daga cikin bayanan da ba a haɗa ba a cikin rahoton shine ranar da aka gwada jinin da aka adana a ƙarshe. Wannan hakika (kuma a zahiri) tambaya ce ta dala tiriliyan.
Wani "sanannen sananne" shine ranar da aka fara kulle-kulle - a kusa Maris 13th 2020, da kwanan wata Fauci, Birx et duk "snuck a" tanadin abin da ba magunguna sa baki zai zahiri ya ƙunsa (m rufe duk marasa muhimmanci kasuwanci da kungiyoyi).
Mutum na iya tambaya idan an ba da izinin yanke shawarar kulle ƙasar don "hankali" ko "dakatar da" yaduwar wannan ƙwayar cuta.f da an sani cewa Amurkawa a cikin jihohi tara sun riga sun sami shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta a farkon Janairu (ko Disamba ko Nuwamba)? Da aka tambaye shi daban, idan an san waɗannan sakamakon, a ce, ƙarshen Fabrairu 2020 ta yaya jami'ai za su ba da hujjar kulle-kullen?
A ƙarshen Fabrairu zai kasance kwanaki 73 bayan an karɓi kashin farko na jinin Red Cross daga masu ba da gudummawa da kuma kwanaki 58 bayan barkewar cutar ta Wuhan. Yaya tsawon lokacin da ake ɗauka don jigilar raka'a 1,900 na jini zuwa dakin gwaje-gwajen da CDC ta fi so sannan a gwada irin waɗannan ƙananan samfuran don rigakafin? Idan wannan gaggawa ta ƙasa ce kuma masana kimiyya da ma'aikatan lab suna aiki 24-7, zai yi ba sun dauki kwanaki 58.
Wataƙila dalilin da ya sa hakan ba zai faru ba shi ne cewa babu wani memba na Ofishin Jakadancin Amurka da ya yi tunanin yin wannan…. yuwuwar wannan marubucin yana da wuyar gaskatawa.
Madadin bayani shi ne da gangan jami'ai suka jinkirta gwajin wannan jinin don haka ba za a sami dalilin dakatar da kulle-kullen ba. Anan zato shine idan Amurkawa sun koyi cewa miliyoyin Amurkawa sun riga sun kamu da wannan kwayar cutar a farkon Disamba - kuma babu wanda ya lura da shi a duk fadin kasar - kila tsoro da firgicin da ya biyo baya ba zai faru ba.
Me ya sa aka ɗauki tsawon lokaci don buga sakamakon wannan binciken jini na Red Cross guda ɗaya?
Ba wai kawai ba a yi gwajin jini na California-Washington-Oregon a cikin lokaci don kawar da kulle-kulle (aƙalla kamar yadda jama'a suka sani), ba a buga binciken da aka yi ba har sai Nuwamba 30, 2020. Wannan ya kusan watanni 12 (!) Bayan mutane 1,900 sun ba da gudummawar jini ga Disamba 13-16.
A cikin bincike na, na sami misalai da yawa na nazarin serology da aka yi ciki, gudanar da sakamakon da aka buga a cikin makwanni kadan (A cikin wani yanayi a Idaho a cikin kwanaki).
Tucker Carlson yana tunani kamar ni
Ni babban masoyin Tucker Carlson ya kasance mai saba wa juna, amma na rasa gaskiyar cewa ya gabatar da wasu tambayoyi na a cikin sharhin da aka watsa a kwanakin bayan da aka buga binciken jini na Red Cross.
Tucker: “Don haka a fili, abin da aka gaya mana kusan shekara guda game da asalin coronavirus ba gaskiya ba ne.
"Me yasa muke koyon wannan a yanzu, wata daya bayan zaben shugaban kasa? Mun sami ingantaccen gwajin rigakafin cutar tun lokacin bazara, amma babu wanda ya yi tunanin gwada samfuran jinin Red Cross har zuwa yanzu?"
Me ya sa ba a zabi jami'ai da ke neman cikakken bayani kan inda wannan kwayar cutar ba wanda ya canza tarihin Amurka har abada cAm daga, ta yaya ya isa Amurka da kuma yadda ya yadu a cikin al'ummarmu? Me ya sa ba mu san haka ba tukuna?”
Iyakar abin da nake da shi tare da rubutun Tucker shine cewa al'ummar kimiyyar Amurka da sun sami "amintattun gwaje-gwajen rigakafi" kafin "lokacin bazara."
(Wani hasashe na sirri: Ina kuma tsammanin ba a samar da gwaje-gwajen rigakafin ''izini'' ba har zuwa ƙarshen Afrilu don ɓoye shaidar yaɗuwar farko, wata ka'idar zan bayyana a cikin labarin nan gaba).
Carlson ya nuna cewa ya zuwa Disamba 2020, Amurkawa har yanzu ba su san inda ba
wannan kwayar cutar da ta "canja tarihin Amurka har abada ta fito ne daga (ko) yadda ta isa Amurka da kuma yadda ta yadu a cikin yawanmu? Me ya sa ba mu san hakan ba tukuna?"
Carlson ya yi waɗannan tambayoyin shekaru biyu da suka gabata ... da Amurkawa har yanzu ba amsa.
Game da tambayar Carlson game da "me yasa ba mu san hakan ba tukuna?" Zan iya ba da amsa ɗaya mai yiwuwa: Domin mutanen da suka san amsar dole ne su san cewa yatsansu yana kan ƙirƙirar wannan ƙwayar cuta. Idan an san gaskiya, ana iya fuskantar tuhumar “laifi kan ’yan Adam.”
Idan kare yi yi haushi kuma ku faɗi tatsuniya, ba zai zama mai laifi ɗaya Sherlock Holmes da aka kama ba, amma fadama mai cike da masu laifi. Kamar yadda ya bayyana, an kusan ba da tabbacin kariya ga masu laifin ta hanyar ɗimbin ɗimbin masu hannu da shuni ("masu ruwa da tsaki" a cikin labarin da aka ba da izini) waɗanda su ma ke da sha'awar. gaskiya bata bayyana ba.
Me yasa jami'ai ba su yi hira da Amurkawa 106 da ke da shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta ba?
Duk wani jami'in kiwon lafiyar jama'a da ke da sha'awar bin diddigin abubuwan da aka sani na farko zai yi gaggawar yin hira da kowane ɗayan waɗannan Amurkawa 106.
Maƙasudin tabbataccen buƙatun shine tabbatar da ko ɗayan waɗannan mutanen ya sami alamun alamun Covid-kamar makonni ko watanni kafin su ba da gudummawar jini. Idan suna da, akwai bayanan likita (har ma da samfuran nama da aka adana) na iya tallafawa wannan ganewar asali. “Masu binciken tuntuɓar juna” suna neman “Case Zeros” mai yiwuwa kuma sun iya gano ko ɗaya daga cikin abokan hulɗar waɗannan mutane na iya yin rashin lafiya.
Amma wannan bai faru ba (har yanzu wani kare da bai yi haushi ba). Maimakon haka, mun koya daga harshen a cikin binciken cewa masu ba da gudummawar jini sun kasance "ba a gano su ba" don dalilai da ba a bayyana ba.
Mai yiwuwa, an yi hakan ne don kare sirrin lafiyar waɗannan mutane. Koyaya, yana da wahala a yi tunanin yanayin da wani ɗan ƙasar Amurka a watan Janairu ko Fabrairu 2020 zai ji haushi idan wani ma'aikacin gwamnati da ke binciken asalin cutar ta ƙarni ya yi masa ko ta 'yan tambayoyi.
Wannan uzuri kuma za a nuna shi ya zama kankara ta yadda jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a a Faransa su ma sun yi wani binciken rigakafin jini na adana jini. Wannan binciken (wanda aka taƙaita a ƙasa) ya kuma sami ɗimbin shaidar yaɗuwar wuri, gami da ƴan ƙasar Faransa waɗanda ke da shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta a farkon Nuwamba 2019.
Koyaya, a Faransa, ba kamar Amurka ba, jami'an kiwon lafiyar jama'a yi Ɗauki lokaci don yin hira da wasu batutuwa masu kyau.
Nazarin Antibody na Faransa ya gano kashi 3.9 na mazauna suna da shaidar rigakafin cutar da wuri
The Faransanci karatu zaba kuma an gwada 9,144 samfuran jini tattara tsakaninNuwamba 4, 2019 da kuma Maris 16, 2020 a cikin mahalarta da ke zaune a cikin yankuna 12 na Faransa.
Mahalarta ɗari uku da hamsin da uku (3.9%) sun kasance tabbataccen ELISA-S, 138 ba a tantance ba. kuma 8653 sun kasance mara kyau (wanda ba a tantance ba kuma mara kyau, 96.1%). Matsakaicin tabbataccen ELISA-S ya ƙaru daga 1.9% (42 na 2218) a watan Nuwamba da kuma 1.3% (20 na 1534) a cikin Disamba 5.0 (114 na 2268) a watan Janairu, 5.2% (114 na 2179) a watan Fabrairu da kuma 6.7% (63 ko 945). farkon rabin Maris.
Adadin samfurori masu kyau (kashi 3.9) na mahalarta Faransanci sun fi ninki biyu na binciken Red Cross ta Amurka (kashi 1.44 tsakanin masu ba da gudummawa 7,392). Jimlar adadin lokuta masu kyau (353) sun fi sau uku girma fiye da yadda aka samo a cikin ƙaramin binciken Red Cross (samfuran 106 masu kyau).
Binciken Red Cross na Amurka ya sami "mafi kyau" a cikin dukkanin jihohi tara da aka yi samfurin kuma binciken Faransa ya sami sakamako mai kyau a duk yankuna 12 na Faransanci ... don haka sakamakon duka binciken biyu sun yi nuni da cewa kwayar cutar ta yadu a kasashen biyu.
A Faransa, kashi biyu (kashi 1.99) na waɗanda aka yi nazarin suna da shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta zuwa Nuwamba 2019 - kusan watanni hudu kafin rufewar duniya. Wataƙila abin mamaki, farashin ya ragu a cikin Disamba amma sai ya karu zuwa kashi 5.0 a watan Janairu kuma ya ci gaba da karuwa a cikin Fabrairu 5.2) da kuma ya kai kashi 6.7 bisa dari a farkon rabin Maris (kafin lockdowns).
Yawan jama'ar Faransa a shekarar 2020 ya kai miliyan 67.38. Wannan yana nufin kashi 6.7 na yawan jama'a sun riga sun sami shaidar kamuwa da cuta kafin a fara kulle-kullen. An kera shi ga daukacin jama'ar Faransa, wannan zai yi daidai da 'yan Faransa miliyan 4.51. Don mahallin, shari'o'in "tabbatar" guda uku na farko na Covid a Faransa har yanzu ana yin rikodin su azaman Janairu 24, 2020.
Ba a gudanar da binciken serology na "kafin kamuwa da cutar" ciki har da jini da aka tattara a watan Fabrairu 2020 a Amurka. Idan kashi 5.2 na Amurkawa suna da shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta a watan Fabrairu (kamar yadda lamarin yake a Faransa), wannan zai yi daidai da 17.21 miliyan Amirkawa.
Jami'an gwamnati na Faransa sun yi hira da wasu yiwuwar yadawa da wuri
Daga binciken: "Masu shiga tare da duka ELISA-S da SN gwaje-gwaje masu kyau a cikin samfurin da aka yi kafin Fabrairu 1, 2020 an yi hira da su don gano yiwuwar fallasa zuwa SARS-CoV-2 kamuwa da cuta. A ƙwararren mai bincike ya tattara daidaitattun bayanai akan bayanan asibiti… da duk wani abin mamaki a cikin abokan hulɗa (misali ciwon huhu da ba a bayyana ba).
Dangane da binciken Faransanci, mutane 13 sun gwada inganci tare da "maganin rigakafi na tsaka-tsaki" (madaidaici mafi girma fiye da tabbataccen IgM ko IgG) "tsakanin Nuwamba 5, 2019 da Janairu 30, 2020."
"Tebur 1 ya bayyana sakamakon serological a cikin waɗannan mahalarta 13, daga cikinsu 11 aka yi hira da su.
Daga cikin batutuwa 11 da aka yi hira da su, takwas (8) - 73 kashi - ko dai sun kasance marasa lafiya da kansu ko kuma suna da kusanci da wani wanda ba shi da lafiya da alamun Covid-kamar. Don dalilai na misali, uku daga cikin binciken waɗannan mutane an gabatar da su a ƙasa:
"Mutum 3 - Samfuran a cikin Nuwamba 2019: Kyakkyawan tare da alamun Covid. Hakanan an lura: Abokin aikinta yana rashin lafiya tare da tsananin tari a cikin Oktoba 2019… ”
"Mutum 6 – An zana jini a watan Nuwamba 2019 … Tafiya a Spain a farkon Nuwamba. Ta yi mu'amala ta yau da kullun tare da wani dangin da ke fama da cutar numfashi wanda ba a san asalinsa ba tsakanin Oktoba da Disamba. Ta sha fama da dysgeusia, hyposmia, da tari kafin a ɗauki samfurin, amma ba ta iya tuna ranar rashin lafiya ba…. ”
"Mutum 7: Mai kyau a cikin Nuwamba tare da bayyanar cututtuka. Mahalarta da abokin tarayya sun yi rashin lafiya tare da tari mai tsanani a cikin Oktoba 2019. Ya sami serology mai biyo baya a ƙarshen Yuli, 2020. ELISA-S = 3.82. (Lura: Wannan yana nufin wannan mutumin ya sami tabbataccen gwajin rigakafin mutum guda biyu).
Bayanin da ke sama yana ba da wata fa'ida ta yin hira da mutanen da ke da shaidar rigakafin kamuwa da cuta da wuri - wato, jami'ai na iya sake gwada waɗannan mutane a wurare daban-daban a nan gaba don ganin tsawon lokacin da ƙwayoyin rigakafi za su kasance. Bugu da ƙari, idan yawancin waɗannan ƴan takarar da suka fara yadawa ba daga baya suka haɓaka shari'o'in da aka tabbatar da PCR ba, wannan zai ba da shawarar cewa, a zahiri, suna da "kariya ta halitta" (wanda zai zama ƙarin shaida na kamuwa da cuta a baya).
Nazarin Antibody na Italiya yana buɗe ido
An gudanar da binciken rigakafin cutar “kafin kamuwa da cutar” mafi buɗe ido daga ƙungiyar masu binciken ilimi a Italiya.
Babban rubutu: “An gano takamaiman ƙwayoyin rigakafin SARS-CoV-2 RBD a cikin 111 na 959 (11.6%) daidaikun mutane, daga Satumba 2019 (14%), tare da gungu na tabbataccen lokuta (>30%) a cikin mako na biyu na Fabrairu 2020 kuma mafi girman lamba (53.2%) a Lombardy. Wannan binciken yana nuna wani wuri da ba zato ba tsammani na SARS-CoV-2 tsakanin mutanen asymptomatic a Italiya watanni da yawa kafin a gano mara lafiya na farko, kuma ya fayyace farawa da yaduwar cutar coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) annoba. ”
"Table 1 ya ba da rahoton gano anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD antibody dangane da lokacin tattara samfurin a Italiya. A cikin watanni 2 na farko, Satumba-Oktoba 2019, 23/162 (14.2%) marasa lafiya a watan Satumba da 27/166 (16.3%) a cikin Oktoba an nuna magungunan IgG ko IgM, ko duka biyun."
“Samfurin tabbatacce na farko (IgM-positive) an rubuta shi akan Satumba 3 a yankin Veneto…
Marasa lafiya 959 ne suka dauki aikin ya zo daga dukkan yankunan Italiya, kuma aƙalla guda ɗaya na SARS-CoV-2-mai haƙuri ya kasance dda aka tsara a cikin yankuna 13 - ƙarin shaida na yaduwa da kuma "farkon," mutum-zuwa-mutum.
Ƙari daga binciken: "Musamman, kololuwa biyu na tabbataccen rigakafin rigakafin SARS-CoV-2 RBD sun kasance a bayyane: na farko ya fara. a karshen watan Satumba, kai 18% da 17% na IgM-tabbatacce lokuta a cikin makonni na biyu da na uku na Oktoba, bi da bi. Na biyu ya faru a cikin Fabrairu 2020, tare da kololuwar akan 30% na IgM-tabbatacce lokuta a cikin mako na biyu."
A cewar marubutan binciken: “Neman rigakafin SARS-CoV-2 a cikin mutanen asymptomatic kafin barkewar COVID-19 a Italiya na iya sake fasalin tarihin annoba."
Bayani na: Na yi tunani iri ɗaya tare da dukan labaran da na rubuta waɗanda suka gabatar da kwatankwacin shaidar “yaɗawa da wuri.” Duk da haka, ina a fili tunanin kuskure. A bayyane, saboda wasu dalilai, kare "da wuri ya bazu" baya yin haushi.
Sake bugawa daga marubucin Mayarwa
